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Constituency Profile
Candidates:
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Dunlop, Garfield |  |
Larsen, Fred |  |
Middleton, Doris |  |
Stubbins, Peter | Incumbent: |
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Garfield Dunlop |
Reference:
Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Simcoe North)
2011 Provincial Election Prediction
2011 Federal Election Prediction
2008 Federal Election Prediction
2007 Provincial Election Prediction
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 | 14 06 01 |
A.S. 99.233.52.111 |
Once upon a time, SN was deemed the more 'competitive' Simcoe seat, what with Midland-Penetang's portland grit combined with Franco-Ontarian Grittiness--but now, thanks in part to the gradual PC fulcrum shift from heartland to hinterland, Dunlop enjoys a higher share than Jim Wilson. (cf. Garf's first race in 1999, in which he was pressed hard by the Liberals while Wilson swept to the highest share in the province.) And that was *in spite of* a better-than-expected NDP result and one of the more credible (and municipally experienced! and running again!) Green candidates out there--which made, and still makes, for a fatally fragmented opposition choice. |
 | 14 05 25 |
R.O. 24.146.23.226 |
Garfield Dunlop remains a popular mpp for the riding and riding is pretty conservative friendly at provincial level to begin with . he will likely keep this riding for another term . |
 | 14 05 11 |
Ken Szijarto 69.17.188.11 |
2014 Candidates are the same as 2011. PC bastion but with less than 50% voter turnout in 2011, 45K dormant voters to get to the polls. Local issues: Cost of Living (ie Hydro), Jobs, Aging demographic (out migration of post sec grads to find work), Policing Costs & future the of Casino Rama should a GTA Casino get built. |
 | 14 05 05 |
Liberal Observer 206.177.43.71 |
This riding will remain in the Conservative fold. There's really no chance of an upset. Garfield Dunlop has a strong franchise with the voters in this riding, and even people who don't vote for him often say nice things about his constituency work and about him personally.It doesn't matter what kind of campaign the Liberals and NDP run in this riding. There is no discernible path to victory, no matter what they do. |
 | 14 05 04 |
monkey 174.114.16.226 |
Also a safe PC riding and although up around Midland and Penetanguishene the Liberals have some support due to the large Francophone community, the PC support elsewhere will easily overwhelm any weakness there. |
 | 13 04 10 |
70.30.132.201 |
Simcoe North is one of the safest seats imaginable, even giving Garfield Dunlop an eight-point victory in the Liberal sweep year of 1990. He shouldn't have any trouble next time either. |
 | 13 04 10 |
seasaw 99.225.1.213 |
No contest here. Dunlop won by a significant margin last time. The PC's have won here the last nine times, eight with fairly convincing margins. Nothing'll change. |
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