08 04 12	99.233.147.209
I wonder where these people predicting a Conservative win in Simcoe North get their information. Doug The Slug says the Midland Free Press always endorses the Conservatives. The fact is, this newspaper hasn't endorsed any party or candidate in recent elections. There was certainly no endorsement in 2006, 2004, 2000 or 1997. The same is true of its sister paper, The Orillia Packet & Times. On the other hand, the Midland/Penetanguishene Mirror and its sister paper, Orillia Today, have made endorsements during that same period, every time for the Liberals. This includes the 2006 election when they endorsed the Liberals over the Conservatives who narrowly won the riding.
	08 04 10	Doug The Slug 192.30.202.21
While it's true the Midland Free Press gave Bruce Stanton and well deserved spanking recently, when it comes time for the election, the Free Press will do what it always does and endorses the Conservatives. The Free Press will tell voters to hold their noses and vote for Bruce because of the party he's running for. I'm not sure in a riding this size how much one newspaper can influence an election but we'll see about that.
	08 04 06	99.233.147.209
Stanton is in trouble. The editorial in Friday Midland Free Press really lampooned him. Even worse, it mocked his explanation for sending out so many pro-Conservative newsletters on the taxpayer dime. Here's a few quotes from the editorial. ?Our local Member of Parliament has come under fire for his latest constituency newsletter. And rightfully so.? ?...the Prime Minister isn?t Stanton?s boss, you are.? ?...he is no Garfield Dunlop.? The quote at the end of the editorial, ?Stanton may still feel his message isn?t being told in full though the filter of the media. If only there was a way he could communicate what he?s done for the riding directly with the people who put him in office. Some sort of thing where he could communicate directly...? is the real stinger. When the media doesn't take you seriously, you're in trouble.
	08 03 31	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
I think the Liberals are forgetting that the loss of Karen Graham damages their chances of winning back Simcoe North. I'm not sure why Graham decided not to run again after only losing by 1100 votes last time. Perhaps that tells us all more about what the Liberal chances are of winning here are. Another mistake the Liberals would make was thinking Orillia is starting to lean more to the centre of the political spectrum. Look at the poll by poll results from 2006 and you'll see Orillia is still very blue. There are more urban people moving into Simcoe North but not enough right now to change the nature of this still very small town, rural riding. I stick with my prediction that Stanton wins by 5000 votes this time.
	08 03 27	142.108.3.178
In reading all these predictions that the Conservatives will retain Simcoe North, I get the impression they're from people who don't actually know the riding or live in the area. A couple of them were completely unaware that the former Liberal candidate had bailed even though it happened a couple of months prior. The rest are providing nothing but vague analysis. The only concrete facts I'm seeing in these Conservative predictions is information readily available on the websites of Elections Canada and Elections Ontario. Simcoe North isn't the backwater they think it is. Analysis of the voting trends in this riding over the past twenty or thirty years tells the real story. At one time this was a Conservative bastion. That was when Simcoe North was primarily rural and the majority of its residents worked in agriculture or came from an agricultural background. These people are now a small rump of the voting age population. These days a large majority of the population is urban and resides in communities like Orillia, Midland and Penetanguishene. Most importantly, the residents of the rural areas that were true blue Conservative in the past are more likely to be transplanted people from elsewhere who now live in boutique communities and enclaves to be near the ski hills, lakes and rolling countryside. These are not the traditional Conservatives my pundit friends would like them to be. The evidence of the changing demographics of Simcoe North is in the poll-by-poll analysis. The Conservatives are not winning rural polls by the margins they did in the past. Even in Orillia, which many Conservatives fondly consider to be a Conservative town, has not been producing the vote tallies in recent elections that Conservative Candidates depended upon to give them a comfortable margin. In short, this riding has changed a lot. The evidence is clear when you analyze the voting trend over the fast few decades. Sorry guys, you're living in the past. Simcoe North is as likely to go Liberal as it is to go Conservative. I give the Liberals a slight edge. If it wasn't for the leadership albatross around their necks, the Liberals would win this riding handily.
	08 03 22	Curley, Larry and Moe 24.244.244.114
All three of us are scratching our heads trying to figure out why anyone would think the Liberals have a prayer in a riding like Simcoe North. This is another riding that we in the business describe as ‘Banjo Country’ where the rustic voters clearly support the Conservatives. Bruce Stanton may be seen as a rural hick in Ottawa but back home in his riding he is well respected, has a dedicated team and is on the right side of every issue that matters in his riding. A few Liberals we talk to try to spin us that they have a chance in Simcoe North but they aren't making a convincing case. Stanton is very safe and will hang on easily.
	08 03 21	99.233.147.209
Simcoe North is one of those ridings where non-Liberal and non-Conservative voters will make the decision. It was a razor thin victory for Stanton in 2006, which was a big surprise to local Conservatives. Stanton had been campaigning for about a year when the Liberals selected their candidate, Karen Graham, two weeks into the election writ period. She was completely new to politics, not well known, and she went into the campaign with her back against the ropes like all Liberals in that election. The NDP and Greens garnered a combined 20.1% of the vote, the highest showing of the smaller parties in Simcoe North since 1988. Stanton won with 40.4% of the vote compared to Graham's 38.4%. It is reasonable to assume that a least some of the Liberal vote stayed home on election day due to their dissatisfaction over the sponsorship scandal and the unfocussed government of Paul Martin and that others parked their vote with the NDP and Greens. The Liberal Candidate nominated for the next election is Steve Clarke, a well-known businessman. But Clarke is also well-known in the other half of the riding. He grew up in Port McNicoll and went to school and started his working career in Midland. Despite being the MP for more than two years, Stanton hasn't made much of an impact. He maintains a fairly low profile and some of the local Conservative establishment is even grumbling that he goes too much by the party. That doesn't go over well in this riding that has had very strong independent minded representatives like Garfield Dunlop MPP, and former MP Paul DeVillers. The Liberals have the right kind of candidate and, if they have a good campaign, their vote will return home and they will pick up some strategic voting from otherwise NDP and Green voters as well. There is every reason to believe the Liberals will run a strong campaign in Simcoe North in the next election, just like they did in 2006 under difficult circumstances.
	08 03 20	R.O. 66.186.79.80
Well I understand why John Waite decided not to run here, likely because he felt he had little chance to win the riding and my previous predictions were sent in months ago. That being said I have no plan to change my prediction simply because the liberals found a new candidate who is new to politics and not run federally before. Well the riding is completive and the liberals have some strength in the midland area its not really a place where liberals other than Paul Devillers have had much success. The liberals are overconfident in thinking they can surge past a strong and well known conservative mp in Bruce Stanton.
	08 03 16	64.229.40.139
Someone should let Peg Leg Pete and R.O. know that John Waite hasn't been the Liberal candidate since last December when he stepped down for personal reasons in a well-publicized move. So much more their knowledge of Simcoe North. At the beginning of March the Liberals nominated well known and respected Orillia businessman, Steve Clarke, as their candidate. The Conservatives have reason to fear Clarke's candidacy. He has roots and networks throughout the riding. It appears that Brue Stanton is feeling the heat. In recent days he has blanketed the riding with a variety of parliamentary mailings that have a definite partisan tone, and there appears to be a backlash. The lacklustre Stanton managed a very small margin of victory in the last election when the Conservatives had the Liberals against the ropes. Not this time. I predict Clarke will win Simcoe North with a margin of several thousand votes.
	08 02 26	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
R.O. seems to have a very good handle on this riding. Simcoe North just isn't the kind of riding the Liberals will be competitive in this year. Too many Liberal hating, rural voters for the Grits to take a serious shot at winning. Bruce Stanton really is a moderate when you look at the rest of the Conservative caucus and this makes life easier for him here. Then there's Liberal candidate John Waite. The only John Waite I ever heard of had a big pop song hit in the mid 80's called ‘Missing You’. I think that John Waite was British. The John Waite running for the Liberals in this riding has no profile, no campaign team and no money. I predict Stanton wins by 5000 votes this time out.
	08 01 31	R.O. 209.91.149.116
Well sort of an update after my last prediction which focused on provincial vote, going to focus on federal race. When you look at the current mp Bruce Stanton I’d say he is a good fit for this riding and a much more moderate candidate than previous one. The liberals when Paul Devillers was mp could win a riding like this since he was so well know and even in cabinet at times and his re-election was made easier by vote spliting and simply put he could beat Peter Stock every election no matter what party he ran for. But the current liberal candidate John Waite is not as high profile as former liberal mp was and has spent last year critising current mp for mostly partisan and at times bizarre reasons since he hasn’t be into trouble and riding has been mostly quiet. The race here might get close but mp has the advantage for now.
	07 11 01	R.O. 209.91.149.14
Well i've officially heard everything , so i'm going to include the recent provincial results , and i really don't see how a provincial liberal loss and a big loss (compared to other ridings in ontario) somehow indicates liberal momentum in this riding . but admit trying to compare provincial results to possible federal ones isn't always the best idea but just wanted to question idea of previous poster. CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES POP. VOTES DUNLOP, GARFIELD PCP 22,987 49.8% DOMSY, LAURA OLP 14,093 30.5% VARCOE, WAYNE GPO 4,709 10.2% HILL, ANDREW NDP 4,239 9.2% RAYBOULD, DANE-TRAIN LTN 112 0.2%
	07 10 20	CR 64.228.2.117
Following the provincial election the scales are tipping ever so slightly more to the Liberals here. The NDP, whose increased vote share is largely responsibl for putting this riding in Conservative hands last time, went down significantly in the provincial vote. While it's not often wise to compare prov/fed results the NDP candidate was Andrew Hill, husband of the popular two time federal candidate Jen Hill. They did not reach the threshold to get their rebate and while they ran a minimal expenses campaign it is likely they still borrowed some against the expected rebate. This will cripple their organization federally a little, and will make the candidacy less attractive to potential contenders. The other factor coming out of the prov. election was the local MP's non-entity status. The popular prov. member has incredible popularity in the riding which helped him win, but it was clear the Conservative brand was in disfavour with traditional Conservative voters. The prov. member's profile outshines his fed. counterpart so unless the federal party has a great central campaign the incumbent, Stanton, will find himself with a lot less to play on than his provincial cousins should things get sour or tight on the national scene.
	07 10 14	24.81.18.126
The Simcoe area is generally a conservative area, with MPs Helena Guergis and Patrick Brown elected in the neighbouring Simcoe-area ridings. This riding in particular is actually a traditional PC riding (with a strong Reform/Canadian Alliance element) in the past, which makes it more inclined to vote Conservative. It will be a close race, but I cannot see the Liberals taking this one back, especially not with Dion at the helm of the party. Stanton should be able to retake it back in a Conservative surge in Ontario.
	07 10 07	GE 74.115.223.21
Folks do the simple math. The Liberals lost the last election by 1100 votes. The NDP vote doubled from 2004 and that was due to the NDP candidate who had run in previous elections and was quite popular. She is not running again. The Green vote stalled and a large chunk of the NDP and Green vote were due to disgruntled Liberals that were still pissed over Gomery. The Liberal candidate John Waite has apparently drawn key NDP supporters into his machine and his past involvement with the local Greens should collapse their vote. John has also picked up some key supporters who worked on Stanton's campaign last time. Bruce Stanton hasn't made any head way with his constituents. He has had a summer of bad press. He has had to defend one of his youth organizers for diminishing women's rights and the Conservative Party poll numbers are significantly lower in Ontario than the Liberals.
	07 05 03	A.S. 74.99.222.209
The seat may be obscure now; but it was a Mariposa-bittersweet embodiment of 1993's electoral dynamics--the Reform surge dooming PC Solicitor-General Doug Lewis to third place, allowing Liberal athletic supporter Paul DeVillers to pole-vault into a win. Sort of like Andy Mitchell to the north, DeVillers parlayed an ‘unlikely’ win into a more personalized mandate--though he had the fortune of having ReformAllianceConservative extremist Peter Stock as his principal opposition for three elections running. Given that, it's a little odd that the more moderate Tory Bruce Stanton barely held the open seat in '06--or testament to the raw electoral power Midland-Penetang still holds. Or held; for all we know, the ADQ effect is hitting Penetang's Franco-Ontarians as well...
	07 04 19	Daniel 156.34.82.19
For such an obscure riding, there certainly seems to be an awful lot of commentary here about it - and a conspicuously large number of Liberal predictions for a riding that went Conservative last time. With Harper's Ontario polling numbers being generally stronger than they were in the last election, I doubt that this riding would so easily flip back to the Liberals - and if it did, it certainly wouldn't be by the ‘wide margin’ some here are predicting. If Harper wins the national campaign, he wins this riding. If the Liberals win the national campaign, they'll probably get this riding back (but nothing at all has suggested the Liberals are surging, or even growing, in Ontario - most of their recent polling growth has been anywhere BUT Ontario).
	07 04 15	GG 74.115.214.70
The Liberals will earn back Simcoe North in the coming Federal Election. They came very close last time, in spite of significant obstacles -- their candidate was nominated about 10 days after the Writ was dropped, and the conservative had been campaigning for the entire year prior. The margin was only around 1000 votes! John Waite is running for the Liberals this time around -- he is well-regarded as a progressive, intelligent, compassionate person who is recognized as a community leader and contributor. The incumbent has taken a self-serving approach to politics through out his career, including his focus as MP on the tourism industry and the Trent Severn Waterway -- on which is family owns a resort. Simcoe North Voters see this for what it is -- opportunism at its worst. I look forward to sending a Liberal to Ottawa from Simcoe North.
	07 04 13	CR 70.50.112.163
I think too much is being made of Bruce Stanton's incumbancy and he's going to let the riding slip from his fingers to the only real challengers in the riding, the Liberals. Note: I say Bruce Stanton will loose it and not the Conservatives because it's his performance that's their weak link. While he hasn't been in trouble much he's been next to invisible in the riding for the past year. In a recent full page interview he gave in the Midland Mirror he mentioned his chief accomplishments being trying to keep up with the service the former Liberal member offered at the constit. office and a push for a bill he watered down to a motion (to make it more passable) on a issue his former challenger was an advocate on. He mentioned both by name, not a healthy sign when a sitting Conservative MP has to tie himself to the local Liberal record to make himself look good. Today there is a damaging article out about some of the rude comments and handling his staff have made to constituents that have come to light. In a rural riding like Simcoe North the MP's presence in the riding is a big factor and this lightweight will have to rely heavy on the national campaign to remain bouyant.
	07 04 13	Craig 69.157.115.139
I'm predicting a Liberal win for two reasons: First, Green and NDP support in the last election represented many who were angry about sponsorship but wouldn't vote for a Stephen Harper led Conservative party if hell froze over. Many of these voters will vote Liberal this time around. Second, I have met both John Waite and Bruce Stanton, and John is clearly a superior candidate who is very well known and respected, especially in and around Orillia, which was the source of much of Bruce's electoral strength in the last election.
	07 04 13	24.81.18.126
The Simcoe area is a fairly conservative area, add that with Stanton's good performance in parliament and the incumbency name recognition factor, I call this CPC hold right now with increased margin of win.
	07 04 12	JJ 72.142.81.201
I think the Liberals will take back this riding. In a year and a half the incumbent Bruce Stanton has failed to make any headway. Mr. Staton has also found himself on the wrong side of many important local issues and in speaking with people he is losing a great deal of credibility. The Liberals have nominated a candidate by the name of John Waite who from what I have read may be able to attract progressive voters and really take a large chunk of voters that voted Conservative last election because of his families political ties. The NDP is also not running the same candidate who had made traction with the electorate. If Waite can create a home for progressive voters then I believe he will win the riding handily. From what I am hearing it is looking good for him.
	07 04 13	MT 74.115.198.22
I believe that Bruce Stanton will lose this riding by a large margin. Last time he barely won the riding and Karen Graham wasn't even nominated until two weeks into the campaign. This time the liberals are ahead of the curve and have nominated a new charismatic candidate who is well-known, well-liked and well-connected. John Waite has a very impressive record of community involvement!
	07 04 13	Change Please 74.115.29.90
It's amazing that anyone could believe that the Conservative presence in Simcoe North has been representative of this riding. The only issue raised by the MP in my quick review of Hansard was improvements to the Trent Severn Waterway. That just happens to be the MPs bread and butter as he is a resort owner. It was only the late start by the Liberals last time that allowed a Tory win. That's not happening this time as John Waite is an A+ Liberal candidate who is far more credible and active in the community, the WHOLE community, that the recumbent Tory.
	07 04 12	Jim 74.120.41.243
People predicting this riding as a pick up for the Liberals are dreaming. Karen Graham, the Liberal candidate in 2006, made a remarkable run in a short period but came up short. This time, Karen Graham decided not to run. That fact does not bode well for any Liberal challenger. I live in this riding, and know Bruce has made a very strong effort in raising his profile. The reality is, it is much easier for the incumbent, and this time a Conservative is the incumbent. Provincially the riding is also Conservative so the Liberals have no sister organization to fall back on, unlike the Conservatives did. You can take this to the bank and put this riding as an easy (5,000 vote) Stanton win.
	07 04 12	3asb@qlink.queensu.ca 24.226.61.228
I recently visited this riding to see some friends and from what they tell me Bruce Stanton is in no trouble at all. I don't see why so many people are eagerly predicting a Liberal victory here when the grits lost it last time and are now down in the polls. If my friends are correct, it seems to me that half the Simcoe North Liberal riding association has submitted pro-Liberal predictions here. Conservative hold!
	07 04 08	M. Lunn 24.80.152.58
I wouldn't call this for the Liberals so quickly. Bruce Stanton is not exactly the greatest candidate and this riding unlike the neighbouring one does include liberal pockets such as Penetanguishene and Tiny, however on the whole this is still a conservative riding. This did after all stay PC provincially after the 2003 disaster so if the Liberals rebound in the polls they can retake this, but if their numbers stay where they are, this will stay Conservative.
	07 04 08	70.49.145.130
I think the Liberals will take back Simcoe North. The current MP, Bruce Stanton, won the riding in the last election but not by very much, and that was at a time when the Conservatives had the wind in their sails and the political circumstances were aligned against the Liberals. Stanton had been campaigning for nearly a year before having to face his Liberal opponent who was nominated only after the election was called. Despite having all the advantage, Bruce Stanton didn't win by very much. It will be different this time. The Liberals already had their nomination meeting and John Waite is considered a strong candidate. I doubt the Liberal machine in Simcoe North will let this riding slip through their fingers again. If anything, they will be more organized and more aggressive than the last time when they started from far behind the Conservatives but finished the election with a strong and focused local campaign. Although Bruce Stanton has the advantage of incumbency, this probably won't be much a factor in his favour because he hasn't established himself very well as an MP. He's a consummate backbencher who plays everything by the party line, and voters are questioning his ability to deliver on their behalf.
	07 04 07	74.100.35.54
There is a strong Liberal organization in Simcoe North, and the Liberals have chosen John Waite as their candidate, a guy who is well-known, respected and has a substantial network in the Orillia end of the riding, which is traditionally an area of Conservative strength. I am told that John Waite is already campaigning full-time. That's a big change from the last election when the Liberals were caught without a candidate when the election was called, played catch-up the whole campaign, and still came close to winning. The incumbent Conservative MP, Bruce Staunton, hasn't made much of an impression since his election. He's almost invisible in Ottawa and he is perceived by constituents as toeing the party line too often. On top of that, he has fumbled one of the big issues in the Orillia end of the riding, the MURF recreation complex, by ignoring it for a year then clumsily trying to make up for lost time in the past couple of months. I am told that he was caught on camera during a deputation to Orillia City Council, claiming he has raised the MURF issue and brown field remediation on behalf of constituents in the House of Commons or in a House of Commons Standing Committee, but the official Hansard record shows he did nothing of the sort. He's already perceived as weak, but now his credibility is under question. Unless the national Liberal campaign tanks badly, the Liberals should take back this seat without too much trouble.
	07 03 21	Doug 192.75.172.1
The Liberals will take this riding back. They narrowly lost it to the Conservative Bruce Stanton last time when all Liberal candidates had their backs against the ropes. It will be different this time because the Conservatives will have to defend THEIR record, and the Liberals can go on the offensive. The Liberals are choosing a new candidate, and it looks like the nomination will go to John Waite, who many locals believe will tie the unimpressive Bruce Stanton into a pretzel in no time. Waite grew-up in the Progressive Conservative tradition, became a Green Party official, and is now a Liberal.