Prediction Changed
12:19 PM 19/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Simcoe North
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Banigan, Richard
Clarke, Steve
Powell, Valerie
Stanton, Bruce

Bruce Stanton

2006 Result:
Bruce Stanton
Karen Graham
Jen Hill
Sandy Agnew
Adrian Peter Kooger

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 07
From what I can tell, this riding is going Liberal again. There are Liberal signs on private property in a lot of places I've never seen before and there's a lot of them. At the debate in Penetanguishene tonight, the Conservative, NDP and Green candidates spent a lot of time putting down strategic voting. Strategic voting seems to be the key message of the Steven Clarke Liberal campaign, and his opponents are clearly spooked. When the Conservative incumbent, the NDP and the Greens all spend so much time saying you shouldn't vote for the Liberal, you know the Liberal is on a roll.
08 10 05 RB
Wow, I can't help but be amazed at all these Conservative reports that Steve Clarke has no signs on private property, in Liberal bastions like Penetang and north Tiny/Lafontaine no less, as well as elsewhere in the riding. Sadly the election prediction site has no doubt factored this in its calculations and is unlikely to change its mind in the scant time left however, for the record, I would like to report the following. As of yesterday morning, Sat. Oct. 4th, Steve Clarke had installed lawn signs at 1588 homes and private residences across the riding. 1588 is a pretty decent number I'd say, especially considering Paul DeViller's record sits just a little over 1200. Am I saying Steve will have a Paul DeViller's style Roman triumph on election day? Probably not, but I think all these general comments that his campaign is invisible are a bit of BS (Bruce Stanton) talk and that things are still a bit more competative in Simcoe North than our friends in blue would like to admit.
Now let's see if we can break 1600 before the end of the day, shall we?
08 09 26 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Went to Awenda Provincial Park today, near Midland. Had to drive the length of the riding and from what I can see, Mr Clarke has as much of a presence as the CPC incumbent (especially in and around Midland). Am I prediction the Grits to be competetive? No. Most of the signs were on public land (both CPC and Lib signs) and Liberals are too busy trying to save the furniture to retake anything.
08 09 26 BC
I can't believe how many people say how well known he is. Well, I've lived in the riding for 14 years and I've never heard of the guy and when I talk to my neighbours, none of them have either. In MY neck of the woods (Oro-Medonte) the only Clarke signs are those on the corners of intersections... Not ONE on someone's lawn... ditto for the Greens. No sign of the NDP. On the other hand, Stanton signs are everywhere... probably 25 on my little street alone.
This riding was solidly Conservative before Paul (Doug Lewis was a very prominent and capable cabinet minister under Mulroney) and I think it'll stay that way until the Tories get corrupted by Ottawa and get sent back to the boonies as inevitably will happen (in 8 years is my guess).
08 09 20 RB
With the announcement of the closure of Huronia Precision Plastics in Midland and rumours of a partial closure of one of the two TRW plants (in addition to the closure of Bruin some months earlier and a litany of layoffs and cuts) Stanton is not getting much of an incumbency boost in the west end of the riding. Letters to the editor have been both critical of him regarding the economy, his stance on the federal debate, and so forth. Times are tough all over, I know, but with West End polls being key to Liberals typically Stanton is going to have to count on more than the national campaign to put down a Liberal surge there.
08 09 18 Jim
I spent some time in Oro-Medonte this weekend (including a visit to the Oro ‘Worlds’ Fair). FWIW, Conservative and Green Party signs were all over the place, and both parties had a presence at the fair. I wouldn't count the Liberals out completely, but Stanton seems to have established himself fairly well. The Greens, even with May steering the party hard to the left, will finish a solid third in the riding.
08 09 16
‘Bri’ wrote: ‘Orillia is Conservative, and will carry Bruce Stanton to an easy victory in simcoe north [sic].’ Orillia has always been Conservative. It didn't stop Paul DeVillers from winning four elections as a Liberal, largely because the riding is considerably larger than the city.
08 09 16 Bri
Simcoe North has gone primarily Conservative since 1945. Paul Devillers won the in '93 after the Conservative party imploded and gained respect as an MP for this riding. In '93 and again in '97 however the PC and Reform vote combined was greater than the Liberal vote. The 2000 and 2004 elections, I believe people voted for Devillers and not the Liberal party. With the retirement of Devillers before the '06 election I believe the voters who voted for the man and not the party switched back to blue for the Conservative win. I don't see that changing this time around either.
08 09 15 RB
I was a little surprised to see Jim's comment about Penetanguishene. I suggest he might want to get out more and maybe bicycle around the town while the weather is still nice and take note of all the Steve Clarke signs on private property while he's at it. As someone that's volunteered and put up a number of signs there (on two occassions neighbours came out and asked me if I had an extra sign for their lawn) I think it's safe to say Penetang is pretty far from becoming a blue bastion anytime soon.
08 09 14 Bri
Orillia is Conservative, and will carry Bruce Stanton to an easy victory in simcoe north.
08 09 13 Brandon
This riding will go Liberal. The Liberals are running a strong and very visible campaign and their candidate, Steve Clarke, is popular in Orillia where he has been very involved in the community but also in the Midland and Penetang area where he grew up. Clarke has been coming across very well in the local newspapers too, taking Stanton to task for his record. Unlike 2006, in this election the Liberals will benefit from strategic voting. I have spoken to several NDP and Green supporters who are worried about vote splitting. The NDP got a lot of votes last time with their popular candidate, Jen Hill, but this time they had a hard time finding a candidate and settled on a guy who has run for them in the past in other ridings, but has tenuous roots in Simcoe North. Stanton lucked-out in 2006 and he should be very worried this time.
08 09 12 Jim
The last three posters, as at the time of writing this comment, have picked Liberal, Steve Clarke, as the front runner for Simcoe North. The reality is, the Conservatives are polling higher now in Ontario than they were in the 2006 election. Also, Bruce Stanton is now the incumbent and even had the strong support of the PC MPP in 2006 when Bruce was the challenger: the Liberals have no such resource in 2008. The facts that the Liberal candidate from 2006, Karen Graham, and even her successor for the nomination, John Waite, who was supposed to contest this riding, have stepped aside show how dismal Liberal chances are in Simcoe North. Penetanguishene where I live, a traditional Liberal stronghold, has only Conservative signs on private property. Spin aside, Steve Clarke, is in the race for second place against the Greens and NDP.
08 09 07
Simcoe North has traditionally been Conservative at both the federal and provincial levels, with the Orillia area being a particular stronghold. It's only recently that the Liberals have had any real success, largely because Paul DeVillers was able to muster strong support from the Midland/Penetanguishene area. Without that, it seems Liberal candidates can't win in this riding. Steve Clarke, like DeVillers, has ties to (and support in) the western end of the riding. Coupled with Bruce Stanton's relatively ineffectual term and the surprisingly public outcry over the Conservatives' use of ten-percenters for partisan purposes, I think Clarke regains the riding for the Liberals.
08 09 08
Yesterday I drove from Orillia to Thunder Beach across most of the riding. I saw lot's of Liberal signs but nothing for the Conservatives, NDP or the Greens. My sources tell me that the Liberals have campaign offices open and fully functioning in Orillia and Midland, and they're the only party that does. It's a bad sign for the Conservatives that their incumbent MP is so slow coming out of the gate in view of the short election writ. Today the Packet & Times editorial made it clear that this race is between the Liberals and the Conservatives, and that the NDP and Greens are also rans. I think Bruce Stanton is in trouble and Steve Clarke will pick this up for the Liberals.
08 09 03 Media Marker
The political landscape in Simcoe North changed in 1993. No party should take this riding for granted now. Although Bruce Stanton was elected in part on his ?name value? and status in the business community, he has so far failed to live up to his advance billing.
Liberal candidate Steve Clarke comes into this contest with the same ?name value? and businessman status as Bruce, but without the baggage of failing to meet voter expectations over the past two years. With the NDP struggling to get out of the gate, and Green support possibly directed toward defeating the Conservatives in order to implement ?Green?er policies under a Liberal government, I think that the momentum in Simcoe North is moving away from the incumbent.
I believe that Steve Clarke will win this seat for the Liberals by a margin of 2500-3000 votes over the Conservatives.
08 09 02 R.O.
This was once a liberal riding but in the last election it returned to its conservative roots and with conservatives leading the liberals in Ontario outside of Toronto area. This riding is likely to re-elect Bruce Stanton as he has been a good mp and delivered some results to the riding such as Trent Severn Waterway funding an issue that he focused on a lot as he was the mp that really brought that issue to parliament hill. And its an important issue in the riding as that waterway runs thru this riding and a major tourist destination. New liberal candidate Steve Clarke remains somewhat unknown and lacks any profile in Ottawa. He just is not anywhere near the candidate Paul Devillers was when he won this riding for the liberals.
08 05 10
Things are going poorly for the Conservative incumbent, Bruce Stanton. In recent weeks he has drawn the ire of his constituents by sending blatantly partisan materials verging on attack ads to households in the riding. Several people wrote letters to the newspapers and it earned him some pretty negative reporting including an editorial taking him to task. Soon afterwards, Liberal Leader, St?phane Dion visited the riding, giving his candidate, Steve Clarke, a boost. The visit received very positive coverage, and media described a public town hall meeting held in the Orillia City Council Chambers with the Liberal Leader as standing room only.
08 04 12
I wonder where these people predicting a Conservative win in Simcoe North get their information. Doug The Slug says the Midland Free Press always endorses the Conservatives. The fact is, this newspaper hasn't endorsed any party or candidate in recent elections. There was certainly no endorsement in 2006, 2004, 2000 or 1997. The same is true of its sister paper, The Orillia Packet & Times. On the other hand, the Midland/Penetanguishene Mirror and its sister paper, Orillia Today, have made endorsements during that same period, every time for the Liberals. This includes the 2006 election when they endorsed the Liberals over the Conservatives who narrowly won the riding.
08 04 10 Doug The Slug
While it's true the Midland Free Press gave Bruce Stanton and well deserved spanking recently, when it comes time for the election, the Free Press will do what it always does and endorses the Conservatives. The Free Press will tell voters to hold their noses and vote for Bruce because of the party he's running for. I'm not sure in a riding this size how much one newspaper can influence an election but we'll see about that.
08 04 06
Stanton is in trouble. The editorial in Friday Midland Free Press really lampooned him. Even worse, it mocked his explanation for sending out so many pro-Conservative newsletters on the taxpayer dime. Here's a few quotes from the editorial. ?Our local Member of Parliament has come under fire for his latest constituency newsletter. And rightfully so.? ?...the Prime Minister isn?t Stanton?s boss, you are.? ?...he is no Garfield Dunlop.? The quote at the end of the editorial, ?Stanton may still feel his message isn?t being told in full though the filter of the media. If only there was a way he could communicate what he?s done for the riding directly with the people who put him in office. Some sort of thing where he could communicate directly...? is the real stinger. When the media doesn't take you seriously, you're in trouble.
08 03 31 Peg Leg Pete
I think the Liberals are forgetting that the loss of Karen Graham damages their chances of winning back Simcoe North. I'm not sure why Graham decided not to run again after only losing by 1100 votes last time. Perhaps that tells us all more about what the Liberal chances are of winning here are. Another mistake the Liberals would make was thinking Orillia is starting to lean more to the centre of the political spectrum.
Look at the poll by poll results from 2006 and you'll see Orillia is still very blue. There are more urban people moving into Simcoe North but not enough right now to change the nature of this still very small town, rural riding. I stick with my prediction that Stanton wins by 5000 votes this time.
08 03 27
In reading all these predictions that the Conservatives will retain Simcoe North, I get the impression they're from people who don't actually know the riding or live in the area. A couple of them were completely unaware that the former Liberal candidate had bailed even though it happened a couple of months prior. The rest are providing nothing but vague analysis. The only concrete facts I'm seeing in these Conservative predictions is information readily available on the websites of Elections Canada and Elections Ontario. Simcoe North isn't the backwater they think it is. Analysis of the voting trends in this riding over the past twenty or thirty years tells the real story. At one time this was a Conservative bastion. That was when Simcoe North was primarily rural and the majority of its residents worked in agriculture or came from an agricultural background. These people are now a small rump of the voting age population. These days a large majority of the population is urban and resides in communities like Orillia, Midland and Penetanguishene. Most importantly, the residents of the rural areas that were true blue Conservative in the past are more likely to be transplanted people from elsewhere who now live in boutique communities and enclaves to be near the ski hills, lakes and rolling countryside. These are not the traditional Conservatives my pundit friends would like them to be. The evidence of the changing demographics of Simcoe North is in the poll-by-poll analysis. The Conservatives are not winning rural polls by the margins they did in the past. Even in Orillia, which many Conservatives fondly consider to be a Conservative town, has not been producing the vote tallies in recent elections that Conservative Candidates depended upon to give them a comfortable margin. In short, this riding has changed a lot. The evidence is clear when you analyze the voting trend over the fast few decades. Sorry guys, you're living in the past. Simcoe North is as likely to go Liberal as it is to go Conservative. I give the Liberals a slight edge. If it wasn't for the leadership albatross around their necks, the Liberals would win this riding handily.
08 03 22 Curley, Larry and Moe
All three of us are scratching our heads trying to figure out why anyone would think the Liberals have a prayer in a riding like Simcoe North. This is another riding that we in the business describe as ‘Banjo Country’ where the rustic voters clearly support the Conservatives. Bruce Stanton may be seen as a rural hick in Ottawa but back home in his riding he is well respected, has a dedicated team and is on the right side of every issue that matters in his riding. A few Liberals we talk to try to spin us that they have a chance in Simcoe North but they aren't making a convincing case. Stanton is very safe and will hang on easily.
08 03 21
Simcoe North is one of those ridings where non-Liberal and non-Conservative voters will make the decision. It was a razor thin victory for Stanton in 2006, which was a big surprise to local Conservatives. Stanton had been campaigning for about a year when the Liberals selected their candidate, Karen Graham, two weeks into the election writ period. She was completely new to politics, not well known, and she went into the campaign with her back against the ropes like all Liberals in that election. The NDP and Greens garnered a combined 20.1% of the vote, the highest showing of the smaller parties in Simcoe North since 1988. Stanton won with 40.4% of the vote compared to Graham's 38.4%. It is reasonable to assume that a least some of the Liberal vote stayed home on election day due to their dissatisfaction over the sponsorship scandal and the unfocussed government of Paul Martin and that others parked their vote with the NDP and Greens.
The Liberal Candidate nominated for the next election is Steve Clarke, a well-known businessman. But Clarke is also well-known in the other half of the riding. He grew up in Port McNicoll and went to school and started his working career in Midland.
Despite being the MP for more than two years, Stanton hasn't made much of an impact. He maintains a fairly low profile and some of the local Conservative establishment is even grumbling that he goes too much by the party. That doesn't go over well in this riding that has had very strong independent minded representatives like Garfield Dunlop MPP, and former MP Paul DeVillers. The Liberals have the right kind of candidate and, if they have a good campaign, their vote will return home and they will pick up some strategic voting from otherwise NDP and Green voters as well. There is every reason to believe the Liberals will run a strong campaign in Simcoe North in the next election, just like they did in 2006 under difficult circumstances.
08 03 20 R.O.
Well I understand why John Waite decided not to run here, likely because he felt he had little chance to win the riding and my previous predictions were sent in months ago. That being said I have no plan to change my prediction simply because the liberals found a new candidate who is new to politics and not run federally before. Well the riding is completive and the liberals have some strength in the midland area its not really a place where liberals other than Paul Devillers have had much success. The liberals are overconfident in thinking they can surge past a strong and well known conservative mp in Bruce Stanton.
08 03 16
Someone should let Peg Leg Pete and R.O. know that John Waite hasn't been the Liberal candidate since last December when he stepped down for personal reasons in a well-publicized move. So much more their knowledge of Simcoe North. At the beginning of March the Liberals nominated well known and respected Orillia businessman, Steve Clarke, as their candidate. The Conservatives have reason to fear Clarke's candidacy. He has roots and networks throughout the riding. It appears that Brue Stanton is feeling the heat. In recent days he has blanketed the riding with a variety of parliamentary mailings that have a definite partisan tone, and there appears to be a backlash. The lacklustre Stanton managed a very small margin of victory in the last election when the Conservatives had the Liberals against the ropes. Not this time. I predict Clarke will win Simcoe North with a margin of several thousand votes.
08 02 26 Peg Leg Pete
R.O. seems to have a very good handle on this riding. Simcoe North just isn't the kind of riding the Liberals will be competitive in this year. Too many Liberal hating, rural voters for the Grits to take a serious shot at winning. Bruce Stanton really is a moderate when you look at the rest of the Conservative caucus and this makes life easier for him here. Then there's Liberal candidate John Waite. The only John Waite I ever heard of had a big pop song hit in the mid 80's called ‘Missing You’. I think that John Waite was British. The John Waite running for the Liberals in this riding has no profile, no campaign team and no money. I predict Stanton wins by 5000 votes this time out.
08 01 31 R.O.
Well sort of an update after my last prediction which focused on provincial vote, going to focus on federal race. When you look at the current mp Bruce Stanton I’d say he is a good fit for this riding and a much more moderate candidate than previous one. The liberals when Paul Devillers was mp could win a riding like this since he was so well know and even in cabinet at times and his re-election was made easier by vote spliting and simply put he could beat Peter Stock every election no matter what party he ran for. But the current liberal candidate John Waite is not as high profile as former liberal mp was and has spent last year critising current mp for mostly partisan and at times bizarre reasons since he hasn’t be into trouble and riding has been mostly quiet. The race here might get close but mp has the advantage for now.
07 11 01 R.O.
Well i've officially heard everything , so i'm going to include the recent provincial results , and i really don't see how a provincial liberal loss and a big loss (compared to other ridings in ontario) somehow indicates liberal momentum in this riding . but admit trying to compare provincial results to possible federal ones isn't always the best idea but just wanted to question idea of previous poster.
DOMSY, LAURA OLP 14,093 30.5%
VARCOE, WAYNE GPO 4,709 10.2%
HILL, ANDREW NDP 4,239 9.2%
07 10 20 CR
Following the provincial election the scales are tipping ever so slightly more to the Liberals here. The NDP, whose increased vote share is largely responsibl for putting this riding in Conservative hands last time, went down significantly in the provincial vote. While it's not often wise to compare prov/fed results the NDP candidate was Andrew Hill, husband of the popular two time federal candidate Jen Hill. They did not reach the threshold to get their rebate and while they ran a minimal expenses campaign it is likely they still borrowed some against the expected rebate. This will cripple their organization federally a little, and will make the candidacy less attractive to potential contenders. The other factor coming out of the prov. election was the local MP's non-entity status. The popular prov. member has incredible popularity in the riding which helped him win, but it was clear the Conservative brand was in disfavour with traditional Conservative voters. The prov. member's profile outshines his fed. counterpart so unless the federal party has a great central campaign the incumbent, Stanton, will find himself with a lot less to play on than his provincial cousins should things get sour or tight on the national scene.
07 10 14
The Simcoe area is generally a conservative area, with MPs Helena Guergis and Patrick Brown elected in the neighbouring Simcoe-area ridings. This riding in particular is actually a traditional PC riding (with a strong Reform/Canadian Alliance element) in the past, which makes it more inclined to vote Conservative. It will be a close race, but I cannot see the Liberals taking this one back, especially not with Dion at the helm of the party. Stanton should be able to retake it back in a Conservative surge in Ontario.
07 10 07 GE
Folks do the simple math. The Liberals lost the last election by 1100 votes. The NDP vote doubled from 2004 and that was due to the NDP candidate who had run in previous elections and was quite popular. She is not running again. The Green vote stalled and a large chunk of the NDP and Green vote were due to disgruntled Liberals that were still pissed over Gomery. The Liberal candidate John Waite has apparently drawn key NDP supporters into his machine and his past involvement with the local Greens should collapse their vote. John has also picked up some key supporters who worked on Stanton's campaign last time. Bruce Stanton hasn't made any head way with his constituents. He has had a summer of bad press. He has had to defend one of his youth organizers for diminishing women's rights and the Conservative Party poll numbers are significantly lower in Ontario than the Liberals.
07 05 03 A.S.
The seat may be obscure now; but it was a Mariposa-bittersweet embodiment of 1993's electoral dynamics--the Reform surge dooming PC Solicitor-General Doug Lewis to third place, allowing Liberal athletic supporter Paul DeVillers to pole-vault into a win. Sort of like Andy Mitchell to the north, DeVillers parlayed an ‘unlikely’ win into a more personalized mandate--though he had the fortune of having ReformAllianceConservative extremist Peter Stock as his principal opposition for three elections running. Given that, it's a little odd that the more moderate Tory Bruce Stanton barely held the open seat in '06--or testament to the raw electoral power Midland-Penetang still holds. Or held; for all we know, the ADQ effect is hitting Penetang's Franco-Ontarians as well...
07 04 19 Daniel
For such an obscure riding, there certainly seems to be an awful lot of commentary here about it - and a conspicuously large number of Liberal predictions for a riding that went Conservative last time. With Harper's Ontario polling numbers being generally stronger than they were in the last election, I doubt that this riding would so easily flip back to the Liberals - and if it did, it certainly wouldn't be by the ‘wide margin’ some here are predicting. If Harper wins the national campaign, he wins this riding. If the Liberals win the national campaign, they'll probably get this riding back (but nothing at all has suggested the Liberals are surging, or even growing, in Ontario - most of their recent polling growth has been anywhere BUT Ontario).
07 04 15 GG
The Liberals will earn back Simcoe North in the coming Federal Election. They came very close last time, in spite of significant obstacles -- their candidate was nominated about 10 days after the Writ was dropped, and the conservative had been campaigning for the entire year prior. The margin was only around 1000 votes! John Waite is running for the Liberals this time around -- he is well-regarded as a progressive, intelligent, compassionate person who is recognized as a community leader and contributor. The incumbent has taken a self-serving approach to politics through out his career, including his focus as MP on the tourism industry and the Trent Severn Waterway -- on which is family owns a resort. Simcoe North Voters see this for what it is -- opportunism at its worst. I look forward to sending a Liberal to Ottawa from Simcoe North.
07 04 13 CR
I think too much is being made of Bruce Stanton's incumbancy and he's going to let the riding slip from his fingers to the only real challengers in the riding, the Liberals. Note: I say Bruce Stanton will loose it and not the Conservatives because it's his performance that's their weak link. While he hasn't been in trouble much he's been next to invisible in the riding for the past year. In a recent full page interview he gave in the Midland Mirror he mentioned his chief accomplishments being trying to keep up with the service the former Liberal member offered at the constit. office and a push for a bill he watered down to a motion (to make it more passable) on a issue his former challenger was an advocate on. He mentioned both by name, not a healthy sign when a sitting Conservative MP has to tie himself to the local Liberal record to make himself look good. Today there is a damaging article out about some of the rude comments and handling his staff have made to constituents that have come to light. In a rural riding like Simcoe North the MP's presence in the riding is a big factor and this lightweight will have to rely heavy on the national campaign to remain bouyant.
07 04 13 Craig
I'm predicting a Liberal win for two reasons: First, Green and NDP support in the last election represented many who were angry about sponsorship but wouldn't vote for a Stephen Harper led Conservative party if hell froze over. Many of these voters will vote Liberal this time around. Second, I have met both John Waite and Bruce Stanton, and John is clearly a superior candidate who is very well known and respected, especially in and around Orillia, which was the source of much of Bruce's electoral strength in the last election.
07 04 13
The Simcoe area is a fairly conservative area, add that with Stanton's good performance in parliament and the incumbency name recognition factor, I call this CPC hold right now with increased margin of win.
07 04 12 JJ
I think the Liberals will take back this riding. In a year and a half the incumbent Bruce Stanton has failed to make any headway. Mr. Staton has also found himself on the wrong side of many important local issues and in speaking with people he is losing a great deal of credibility. The Liberals have nominated a candidate by the name of John Waite who from what I have read may be able to attract progressive voters and really take a large chunk of voters that voted Conservative last election because of his families political ties. The NDP is also not running the same candidate who had made traction with the electorate. If Waite can create a home for progressive voters then I believe he will win the riding handily. From what I am hearing it is looking good for him.
07 04 13 MT
I believe that Bruce Stanton will lose this riding by a large margin. Last time he barely won the riding and Karen Graham wasn't even nominated until two weeks into the campaign. This time the liberals are ahead of the curve and have nominated a new charismatic candidate who is well-known, well-liked and well-connected. John Waite has a very impressive record of community involvement!
07 04 13 Change Please
It's amazing that anyone could believe that the Conservative presence in Simcoe North has been representative of this riding. The only issue raised by the MP in my quick review of Hansard was improvements to the Trent Severn Waterway. That just happens to be the MPs bread and butter as he is a resort owner.
It was only the late start by the Liberals last time that allowed a Tory win. That's not happening this time as John Waite is an A+ Liberal candidate who is far more credible and active in the community, the WHOLE community, that the recumbent Tory.
07 04 12 Jim
People predicting this riding as a pick up for the Liberals are dreaming. Karen Graham, the Liberal candidate in 2006, made a remarkable run in a short period but came up short. This time, Karen Graham decided not to run. That fact does not bode well for any Liberal challenger. I live in this riding, and know Bruce has made a very strong effort in raising his profile. The reality is, it is much easier for the incumbent, and this time a Conservative is the incumbent. Provincially the riding is also Conservative so the Liberals have no sister organization to fall back on, unlike the Conservatives did. You can take this to the bank and put this riding as an easy (5,000 vote) Stanton win.
07 04 12
I recently visited this riding to see some friends and from what they tell me Bruce Stanton is in no trouble at all. I don't see why so many people are eagerly predicting a Liberal victory here when the grits lost it last time and are now down in the polls. If my friends are correct, it seems to me that half the Simcoe North Liberal riding association has submitted pro-Liberal predictions here. Conservative hold!
07 04 08 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this for the Liberals so quickly. Bruce Stanton is not exactly the greatest candidate and this riding unlike the neighbouring one does include liberal pockets such as Penetanguishene and Tiny, however on the whole this is still a conservative riding. This did after all stay PC provincially after the 2003 disaster so if the Liberals rebound in the polls they can retake this, but if their numbers stay where they are, this will stay Conservative.
07 04 08
I think the Liberals will take back Simcoe North. The current MP, Bruce Stanton, won the riding in the last election but not by very much, and that was at a time when the Conservatives had the wind in their sails and the political circumstances were aligned against the Liberals. Stanton had been campaigning for nearly a year before having to face his Liberal opponent who was nominated only after the election was called. Despite having all the advantage, Bruce Stanton didn't win by very much. It will be different this time. The Liberals already had their nomination meeting and John Waite is considered a strong candidate. I doubt the Liberal machine in Simcoe North will let this riding slip through their fingers again. If anything, they will be more organized and more aggressive than the last time when they started from far behind the Conservatives but finished the election with a strong and focused local campaign. Although Bruce Stanton has the advantage of incumbency, this probably won't be much a factor in his favour because he hasn't established himself very well as an MP. He's a consummate backbencher who plays everything by the party line, and voters are questioning his ability to deliver on their behalf.
07 04 07
There is a strong Liberal organization in Simcoe North, and the Liberals have chosen John Waite as their candidate, a guy who is well-known, respected and has a substantial network in the Orillia end of the riding, which is traditionally an area of Conservative strength. I am told that John Waite is already campaigning full-time. That's a big change from the last election when the Liberals were caught without a candidate when the election was called, played catch-up the whole campaign, and still came close to winning. The incumbent Conservative MP, Bruce Staunton, hasn't made much of an impression since his election. He's almost invisible in Ottawa and he is perceived by constituents as toeing the party line too often. On top of that, he has fumbled one of the big issues in the Orillia end of the riding, the MURF recreation complex, by ignoring it for a year then clumsily trying to make up for lost time in the past couple of months. I am told that he was caught on camera during a deputation to Orillia City Council, claiming he has raised the MURF issue and brown field remediation on behalf of constituents in the House of Commons or in a House of Commons Standing Committee, but the official Hansard record shows he did nothing of the sort. He's already perceived as weak, but now his credibility is under question. Unless the national Liberal campaign tanks badly, the Liberals should take back this seat without too much trouble.
07 03 21 Doug
The Liberals will take this riding back. They narrowly lost it to the Conservative Bruce Stanton last time when all Liberal candidates had their backs against the ropes. It will be different this time because the Conservatives will have to defend THEIR record, and the Liberals can go on the offensive. The Liberals are choosing a new candidate, and it looks like the nomination will go to John Waite, who many locals believe will tie the unimpressive Bruce Stanton into a pretzel in no time. Waite grew-up in the Progressive Conservative tradition, became a Green Party official, and is now a Liberal.

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