Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Simcoe North


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:47
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dunlop, Garfield

Larsen, Fred

Middleton, Doris

Stubbins, Peter

Incumbent:
Garfield Dunlop

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * GARFIELD DUNLOP
    22,98649.82%
    LAURA DOMSY
    14,09430.55%
    WAYNE VARCOE
    4,70910.21%
    ANDREW HILL
    4,2409.19%
    DANE-TRAIN RAYBOULD
    1120.24%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1753938.28%
    2061544.99%
    549411.99%


  •  


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    11 10 01 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    In a catastrophic year for the PCs, I can see Dunlop losing--yet even his predecessor seat stayed Tory in '87's Grossman disaster (albeit more through Grits and NDP splitting the opposition). Even if Hudak's doing not that hot, it's not the kind of not-that-hot that would sacrifice a Simcoe North, where the demos aren't the sort who'd react adversely to anti-foreign-worker sword-waving, etc.
    11 09 17 Ken Szijarto
    38.99.176.81
    The incumbent Garfield Dunlop, PCPO is a sure thing in Simcoe North. He even publicly boasted of it at an All Candidate meeting Sept 10th in Lagoon City, in Ramara Township.
    11 09 15 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Garfield Dunlop will hold this riding , been thru it this election and he's well ahead in terms of signs on private property along major roads and highways and even in more built up sections of orillia i didn't see a huge presence for his opponents . he easily held it last election and is well liked in the riding . none of the 3 candidates running against him are particulary well known in Simcoe county or have any profile at queen's park. liberals were very competitive in this riding back in 2003 but have became less popular in the riding ever since the liberals came to power oddly enough.
    11 02 26 Quixotae
    99.239.21.5
    Garfield is perhaps one of the most beloved politicians in Simcoe. He knows everybody and everybody knows him...and just about everybody likes him. Tough to see this to even be a close race at all. I think anyone would be surprised to see this go anywhere but to the PCs again...Dunlop is too strong and the area is a longtime PC stronghold.
    11 02 25 Jeff Westlake
    24.235.153.34
    While Dunlop's total vote's dropped between '03 and '07 (along with everybody else), his percentage of the vote actually grew. He has never finished with less than 46%, and will hold the seat.



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