Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-07 22:56:00

Constituency Profile


French, Jennifer

Ouellette, Jerry

Quintyn, Esrick

Smit, Becky

Jerry Ouellette


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Oshawa)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 06 DC44
    The NDP campaign has sprung to life and is gaining momentum. Firefighters have endorsed Jennifer French. Andrea Horwath has visited the riding, which signals that the central party knows it is in play. Ms. French is young, vibrant and sincere...the very antithesis of the incumbent.
    14 06 07 ML
    I have to agree with much of what A.S. said. Horwath's 'bread and butter' platform seems perfect for a riding like Oshawa. And when you consider how close the NDP have come in the past this should be a perfect riding for an NDP pick up. Still, the NDP have dipped slightly in the polls, particularly within the GTA. Also, the Liberals seem to be building some momentum in the region which could poach some of the NDP's votes. As always, this will be a race to the finish line.
    14 06 05 R.O.
    This riding had a lot of potential for the ndp going into this election as they had been gaining seats that were much more unlikely wins then this former ndp riding. However they haven't managed to get any traction this election and it seems unlikely there going to make big gains this year if any . you gotta think current ontario pc mpp Jerry Ouellette is going to keep the riding for another term . he's held it for a number of years and seems to be liked as mpp.
    14 05 29 Arden
    This will be close if it goes NDP, and I might be way off base here, but I think the PC support will erode and NDP will eke out a win. Support for the PC party, while certainly not decaying completely, does seem to be not growing in leaps and bounds based on polling (and general sentiment I get from people), certainly not enough to do that outstanding this election, and I think this riding might be a loss for them. Hudak's comments seem to have drawn a particular bit of ire, even from people I know who aren't normally at all political. I can't say this for certain, especially based off partially anecdotal evidence, but I think in close races like this could be what makes a difference.
    Date 14 A.S.
    It isn't that Oshawa's lost to the NDP permanently--in fact, Horwath's platform is (over-?) deliriously geared to the Oshawa-style electorate--but just that over the past recovery-mode decade, each time the NDP takes one step forward, the Tories (provincially and federally) take another--and you can't just lay the blame on suburbanization. And this *should*, *could*, *would* be the time 'at last' for the NDP...except that they may be jumping too far and tripping (esp. if sign scarcity's an issue). Oh, and re that EKOS poll: anything showing the Grits at 23% and PC at third is automatically spurious.
    14 05 26 G.Lobe
    Oshawa is pretty much covered with PC signs; a few NDP signs here or there. The support for PC remains strong and Ouellette is still fairly popular.
    14 05 23 New resident
    General polling has been all over the place this election, but there was a riding-specific poll for Oshawa done by EKOS the first weekend of May I haven't seen mentioned here yet.
    'NDP poised to win Oshawa according to EKOS poll taken this past weekend'
    NDP 29
    Libs 23
    PC 20
    At least as of that moment, in time the advantage went to the NDP, although there is lots of time for things to change.
    14 05 18 Jeff316
    High housing prices in the GTA have pushed single-income families to the geographic margins. Oshawa has become home to a lot of truly middle-class families due to an abundance of cheap housing, particularly new inexpensive suburban housing stock in the north end of the city, on the border with Whitby, and even out to Courtice. Families with white collar single income earners, these people are not ideologues but they're pretty conservative through and through.
    14 05 16 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    ETA: I meant to write particularly with the *decline* of industrial employment and the old working class consciousness and solidarities. Should also say Oshawa is a testing ground for Andrea Horwath's 'common sense' populism.
    14 05 16 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    Oshawa, which elected Ed Broadbent to Parliament, now seems to become a stranglehold of rightwing populism. Working class voters turfed the NDP for Harris and never went back (and federally Reform/Alliance did quite well in Oshawa). Even with Hudak's flirtation with right to work, I don't see that changing, particularly with industrial employment and the old working class solidarities and consciousness that went along with it.
    14 05 14 DC44
    Jennifer French is a teacher...given the Conservative attack on teachers, unions and preposterous lets fire 100,000 people to create 1 million jobs promise this riding will see the Liberal vote migrate to the NDP.
    14 05 09 Dr Bear
    Seasaw, what has changed this time is that the Liberals are generally disliked but the PC are not able to capitalize on this weakness. If they were able to, there would have been a string of wins for the PCs in the various byelections. Instead, the NDP have won in places where the PC should have won. How does that relate here? If a relatively small chunk of Liberal support swings to the NDP, they would be able to eke out a win over the incumbent. That being said, if I was compelled to make a decision, I would suggest Ouellette would win (the NDP have thrown all sorts of strong candidates at him and he has always won). Never the less, the PC can not take this riding for granted.
    13 03 22 Keen Observer
    Love him or hate him...this riding belongs to Ouellette.
    13 02 16 seasaw
    Another PC hold. Ouellette has won here ever since 1995. The NDP, has recruited some high profile candidates here hoping to win, but they've failed. Nothing will change this time.

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