Prediction Changed
9:25 PM 22/09/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

Oshawa (74.8%)
Jerry J. Ouellette
Durham (25.2%)
John O'Toole

2003 Result (redistributed):

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

07 10 08 King of Kensington
I'll agree with the call for the NDP here. With the Tories going nowhere in Ontario and most polls showing increased support for the NDP, Sid Ryan should be able to take it. And while Mike Harris did well here, the more upper class/noblesse oblige John Tory doesn't offer the kind of rightwing populism that appeals more to working class voters.
07 10 07 Neil
Oshawa has been an anomaly since 1967, when the NDP (barely) won their first seat in the riding, snatching victory from the traditional PC vote.
In the 40 years since, VOTE SPLITTING has generally determined the outcome of the local election. This, despite how well or how poorly the Leader’s campaign (in any party that eventually governed) was.
This means that ‘winner take all’ in Oshawa has historically been divided between the NDP and Conservatives.
Ontario's Election 2007 is no exception. The local Liberal candidate, Ajax resident Faelyne Templer, is running an unintentionally near-stealth campaign, with a noticeable drop in signs (all on public property — none that I can see on peoples’ lawns), a quiet door-to-door campaign, and no apparent leaflet drops as of yet. This looks like a campaign that’s been run on a tight budget.
This is quite a different scenario than 2003, 1999 or 1995. Previous elections saw much stronger local Liberal candidates, and that’s key if the NDP and Sid Ryan are to avoid giving the riding to PC Jerry Ouelette by virtue of the vote splits.
The current situation (a quiet campaign on the part of the Liberals) is similar to the 1999 provincial election. At that time, the NDP ran their own low-key, unknown candidate, Colleen Twomey. The Liberals came in second that year, topping the 3rd-place NDP candidate, but falling far short of victory. 1999 was an anomaly in terms of the typical 2-way PC-NDP race in Oshawa, but I bring it up only to show how a poor local candidate or campaign can tip the scales and change which direction a split vote might take.
Typical Oshawa elections see the Liberals running in third place. They haven’t been contenders in Oshawa in three decades — but they have split the centre-left vote with the NDP and have at times ’stolen’ what seemed like NDP victories.
A CBC poll during the 2004 Federal confirmed that 34% of committed NDP voters switched to the Liberal candidate at the very last moment, expressly in order to block a Conservative victory. But all they accomplished was a vote split that sent the Conservative (Colin Carrie) to Ottawa.
The provincial 2003 election saw a similar scenario, with the NDP’s Sid Ryan (13,500 votes) falling only 1,000 votes behind the PC victor (14,500 votes), while the Liberal candidate walked away with a 3rd place finish, but 9,300 votes. A clear case of the Liberal being the spoiler.
Oshawa’s voters don’t realize that it’s a 2-way race between the PC and NDP candidates because they’re paying attention to the provincial campaign.
So with a quiet Liberal campaign, 12 years of 'incumbent fatigue', plus a total rejection of faith-based funding (and a cynical view of John Tory’s deathbed turnaround), added to Ouelette's attempted distancing and re-embrace of the Tory campaign -- well, the vote split might be less of a factor in 2007.
This could mean a victory for Sid Ryan and a return of Oshawa riding to the NDP fold for the first time since 1990.
07 10 07 JB
i'd have to call this one for Ryan.Jerry Oullette has no workers and no campaign.John Tory's flip flop on the faith base school funding isn't fooling anyone in Oshawa and will hurt Jerry.Ryan has lots of workers and his signs are actually on peoples lawns not just fences and public property.A weak liberal campaign will help Ryan.I think its time for Jerry to start looking for a job.
07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
Every election Jerry Oullette is counted out and the NDP think they're finally going to elect Syd Ryan to something. This is one riding where the province-wide numbers can't be ignored. Ryan's NDP are running at 15 per cent. For all you NDPers out there, that means Syd has to draw at least 20 to 22 points more than his party does to be competitive. Just like the last four elections, it's just too much to think that's possible.
Jerry Oullette also caught a big break when the Liberals nominated a very weak candidate in Templer who won't get more than 22 per cent of the vote.
Jerry Oullette is a survivor and he'll hang on and win by 1800 votes. Syd can then gear up for another losing federal campaign in a week. This riding stays with the Tories.
07 10 05
Some interesting comments regarding Ryan’s campaign and it relative strength. All of the stars have lined up for Ryan in this election. The Conversatives have imploded with the funding of religious schools issue. Mr Quellette has long been cultivating a bond with the various faith communities in Oshawa. This week he has alienated this group by coming out against the funding of ‘religious schools’. He has further alienated staunch Conservatives by claiming in a local TV ad that he is responsible for forcing his Conservative to back down on ‘religious schools'. Not a smart move to be boasting about knee capping your leader in a television ad.
As for the Liberals, they have not won Oshawa in 47 years at the provincial level. They have no Oshawa Riding association and could not find a candidate to run, hence they approached Ms Templer. It is pretty difficult to win in Oshawa without a real team of canvassers and volunteers.
Ryan will benefit from Hargroves endorsement of the Liberals. Buzz is not very well liked on the shop floor in GM. His endorsement of Liberals because they are supposedly further left than NDP is simply bizarre. But who is listening to Buzz as he lectures us on how to vote?
This could be a landslide for Ryan.
07 10 05 Rebel
I don't disagree with many posters about Sid Ryan's chances but wonder if Buzz Hargrove's endorsement of the Liberals plus their overall strength in the province might counteract the weakness of their Oshawa campaign.
07 10 04 Nick J Boragina
I’m going to agree with the call here. NDP. I waited until now to make a call on the riding, but I think the NDP has the edge. It’s clear the Tories are not winning the general election, so the opposition is more free to shift to the NDP, were they would have otherwise tactically voted PC to beat the Liberals. The NDP stands to gain ridings like this, and Ryan, who should have won federally, will get a seat provincially.
07 10 03 Orleans Voter
I'm kind of surprised to already see an NDP prediction since both provincially and federally this riding has been a 3 way race the last several times. As long as people here keep voting 1/3 for each of the parties, it makes it difficult to tell who will win. If people keep splitting the vote between the Liberals and the NDP, it gives the Conservatives an advantage.
07 10 03 binriso
Calling it for Sid Ryan was the right call (to me anyways). PC's are tanking around the province and the NDP is not far off in this riding to begin with. Sid seems to have more momentum and Liberals here could strategically vote for him and defeat Ouellette, since their candidate really doesnt look like they have a shot. Ryan by 1000-2000 votes.
07 10 02 MS from Durham
I've got to agree with the previous poster, about Ryan outperforming Oullette in the debate. It was hard to believe that Jerry was a 12 year veteran of the legislature, based on his performance. He has always won in the past on the strength of the central campaign combined with the Libs and Ndp splitting the opposing vote. He can't rely on either this time, and don't count on his own performance to carry him.
07 09 28 Bus driver
Calling this Riding for the NDP was the correct decision. Sid wiped the floor with Jerry Quellette on CHEX TV debate. Jerry looked like a deer caught in the headlights when Ryan challenged him on where he stood on religious based funding for schools. Jerry tried to duck the question but Ryan skilfully skewered him and made Jerry look weak and afraid to defend his party's policy.
Ryan had jerry denying that he belongs to the same Conservative Party as Colin Carrie..Jerry panicked when Ryan nailed him on the federal Tories position on Free Trade with Korea and rebates of $2000 dollars for foreign manufactured cars. It was not a pretty sight watching a 12 year veteran of the legisislature grasping at straws and resorting to name calling to defend himself.
As for the Nuclear Power's a figment of the Tory imagination. Ryan worked in the Nuclear Power Plants for 17 years. He was the union plant chairperson for 8 years before coming president of CUPE Ont. He was the most popular union leader in the Plants history. Jerry is dreaming if he thinks he is cutting into Ryans nuclear plant worker support.
The signs in Oshawa tell the story. Ryans are on voters lawns..Jerrys are on fences and public property. Oshawas Tories are crossing over to Ryan or are staying at home. They are furious at the funding of religious schools. Jerry has had 12 years to try and make a's time for a change in Oshawa.
07 09 28 Brian
The NDP and Sid Ryan plan to close the Pickering and Darlington nuclear plants is now causing Ryan to bleed support to the Tories and Liberals. What a disaster for Ryan. However unpopular religious school funding may be people in Oshawa will vote with their wallets over their god on this issue alone. Closing the nuclear plants would kill Durham’s economy. Good high paying jobs at OPG and new nuclear plants are the future of Durham’s economy. The NDP made stupid error to kill the nuclear plants and it will be a killer for them in Durham, Oshawa, Whitby Oshawa, Ajax/Pickering. This is a blunder Ryan won’t recover from. He even worked in the Pickering nuclear plant for a while! Must have been drinking some heavy water.
07 09 28 shwaguy
I think Sid is running an impressive campaign and see a number of his signs on a number of lawns. This city is clearly divided in that it has a large number of blue-collar workers, commuters, as well as an affluent population. Sid will carry a lot of the socialist and workers vote and Jerry will appeal to the more affluent in the north part of the city. We need to also remember that not all 11,000 GM employees live in Oshawa and not all GM employees are NDP supporters - we only need to look at the CAW and their divided stance on this (Liberal or NDP?). Jerry will definitely be hurt by the boundary shift as Whitby-Oshawa has swallowed a traditional Tory stronghold in the northwest area of Oshawa (to Christine Elliot's benefit). Jerry has been in power for some time and is very well known and active in the community. I think the NDP (Sid) and Liberal (templar) candidates will be hurt by the fact that they are not even residents of Oshawa and those in Oshawa will recognize that.
Close to call but I think Jerry will take this one in a nail-biter.
07 09 26 lrs
NDP gain prediction- with provincial Tory campaign faltering and locals on this site seem to suggest that local tory member is out of touch or not as popular - would seem that NDP vote as logical for Tory switchers than voting Liberal in this riding - Ryan should win with a 5-10 % victory
07 09 26 MS from durham
I think the liberals have dropped enough in this riding with a very capable but unknown candidate, to allow the NDP to finally knock off Oellette in Oshawa. Tory's pushing of the private school funding issue will resonate poorly in a blue collar town like Oshawa, and will do him in here.
Besides, you've got to admire Sid's persistence - how many attempts does this make?
07 09 26 Adam
I just have to say that QM is delirious. First of all the Liberals are not at all close to being in majority territory, ALL LEADERS have made this clear to the voters that a majority government is no where in sight. Look at the recent polls (SES Research: Liberals 41%, PC at 33%, NDP at 18% and the Greens at 8%). Second, the NDP has a much longer and deeper tradition in Oshawa then the Liberals have, Syd has come in a strong second every time he has run (correct me if i'm wrong here).
To say that the NDP has NO auto sector plan is a blatant lie! here the NDP announced a 600million dollar investment to retain job and encourage the growth of a green auto sector.
07 09 25 Oshawa Boy
Way too early to call this one.
Ryan is a good campaigner, in the union hall or amongst his own supporters but comes across as smug and arrogant to non-union, non-NDP or undecided voters. His record and past comments have many questioning his honesty and commitment to anything other than his own ambition.
Ouellette is fighting hard to keep his seat but will be hard pressed to hold if the faith schools funding issue continues to burn hot.
It will be another close one but the Liberals are clearly on the ascendancy and could come up the middle on election night.
07 09 25 T.V.
I definitely think it's way too early to be calling this for the NDP. As many have already mentioned, Sid Ryan has run and lost four times. Both federally and provincially, Oshawa has elected Tories on the basis of vote splitting between the Liberals and the NDP. I don't think that's likely to change this time.
07 09 25 Bobby H
Oshawa is bi-polar. One segment of the population seeks union representation via the NDP, while a great deal of those same people are sick of paying ‘high taxes’. When you're dealing with a fairly well paid, uneducated population, irrational judgments are almost a certainty. That's why we see Oshawa-home-of-the-NDP elect Tory after Tory. Even the liberals they've elected are Tories when it comes to their policy.
07 09 25
Its definitely going to be close but I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on Sid Ryan. He's a strong candidate but remember he has ran and lost four times, twice provincially and twice federally. You may see a burst in support from the unions but their NDP support hasn't been the same since Bob Rae's Social Contract - which Ryan was militantly opposed to.
I'll certainly be keeping my eye on this one come election night.
07 09 25 QM
I will go out on a limb and predict a Liberal win here in Oshawa and here is why,
1) Latest polls have Liberals in majority territory with NDP and PC support down overall
2) Jerry Ouellette has run a lacklustre campaign so far, lots of signs but performed badly in the debate and am told not much of a ground game
3) Sid Ryan is his own worst enemy, the federal party he wanted to represent supports the immediate implementation of the Kyoto accord which would mean thousands of job losses in Oshawa and he has no plan to retrain or replace these jobs, the NDP platform provincially does not address this issue. Mr. Ryan will lose support from his previous 3 runs, the breakthrough simply will not happen.
4) Anybody who knows the Liberal candidate knows that she is a social activist with deep ties to both the labour and business sector and she will steal equally from the left and right.
My prediction,
Liberal - 34%
PC - 33%
NDP - 29%
Green - 4%
07 09 24 RyanOntario
still too close , First well this seat has been decided by only around 500 to 2000 votes the last 3 elections (2003,2004,2006) .
Second we don't know exactly what will happen to the liberal vote an example in the last federal election liberals droped to 12,800, ndp went up to 17,900 but note conservatives went up as well 20,600.
Third both candidates are very well known Sid Ryan for CUPE union , previous election runs and sun newspaper colum. Jerry Ouellette for being mpp since 95 and for holding several cabinet posts during those years.
will have to wait till last week to figure this one out .
07 09 22 KM
i think sid ryan will take it.... and expect their to be a leadership change in the NDP as Howie Hampton needs to retire or just start to slow down... i think sid ryan would be AMAZING as the NDP Leader... so i say this goes NDP and also Faleyne Templar will be the reason its a NDP victory because shell make a strong push to steal some PC votes...
07 09 21 905er
I am leaning NDP on this one but I wouldn't call it as of yet. The Liberal campaign is very weak and that should have the Tories very concerned. What normally is a nice Liberal - NDP split for them may well fade in favour of NDP. That said - this is only between the PCs and the NDP. Unlike the other Durham Ridings - this one is hard to call
07 09 19 Bus driver
This is shaping up to be a very tight contest between the Tories and the Liberals for the ?public boulevard? vote. On the other hand the NDP signs on voters properties outnumber the Tories at least 3 to 1 and outnumber the Liberals by at least 50 to 1.
The ?school faith based funding issue? is killing the Tory vote. Not surprisingly, Ryan is picking up some of the disaffected Tory vote, while others say they are going to sit this election out.
One can guage the extent of the disarray in the Tory campaign by the fact Jerry Quellette has two great big signs hanging on the fence of the now demolished North Plant on Ritson Road north. This plant once employed 3000 workers when Jerry was first elected an MPP. His great big signs are a reminder of the TORY auto strategy in Oshawa, resulting in demolished plants and jobs disappearing in record numbers.
At this point in the campaign - the talk on the bus routes favours Ryan.
07 09 18 Rob Kernoghan
As a family with a close history with the ATU (transit union) and other ties to Mr. Ryan (in terms of family history and geography), I can tell you that of all his prior tries at getting elected - the stars are better aligned now than ever for his to take a seat in the Pink Palace.
Mr. Ryan's career as a worker representative, union leader and lobbyist have largely been put on hold the last while to position himself for a political win. Given the recent auto and manufacturing layoffs, plus the riding's long-standing federal history and Mr. Ryan's multiple efforts to get elected - now with some provincial government dissatisfaction (health tax), definite federal conservative dissatisfaction (with Industry Minister 'turncoat' Emerson ignoring Ontario manufacturing altogether (Domtar -Cornwall, GM-Oshawa, etc.) this riding is ready to send a strong opposition member to Queen's Park.
Sid Ryan is disliked due to his participation in 'social contract' planning during the Rae days and carries some stigma his positions (real or perceived) on the international Irish dispute. However, all-in-all, he has worked really hard for many years to be represented. Now more than ever the stars are better aligned for him to make the cut in Ed's backyard.
07 09 17 Pete B.
I am leaning towards Ryan but I am not yet ready to call this one and I think that the vote could be volatile until the very end. Unless McGuinty does something outstanding in the debate, we will likely see the Liberal vote in Oshawa disintegrate. With the current troubles in the auto industry, and worker insecurity, this should mean wind in NDP's sails. However, if the PC picks up enough steam in the province, the people of Oshawa may decide to keep a governing party MP.
07 09 16 Rogue Tory
Sid Ryans day in the sun has arrived. After numerous attempts at trying to take Oshawa both federally and provincially, this dog will finally get his due. A weak Liberal candidate, combined with impending GM lay-offs and a relatively high profile NDP candidate equals break thorugh for Ryan. In times of crisis the erstwhile labour-tory vote will splinter resulting in a net benefit for the NDP. The lack of profile for the PC incumbent here helps Ryan all the more (not to mention an endorsement from Michael Coren of all people).
07 09 15 Bus driver
Comments on the bus route are varied. Word is that the Liberal and Conservative campaigns are experiencing problems attracting volunteers. The NDP office is a hive of activity with a full parking lot late into the evenings. On the bus routes - word is Ryan sign outnumber Quellette signs 3 to 1. So far there are very few Liberal signs anywhere in the city. While signs dont vote, they are an indicator of which campaign is better organized and resourced.
Commuters are very worried about job losses in the city and lots of discussion about ‘faith based ‘ funding for schools. It seems some of the staunchest Conservatives are hoping mad at the policy. This may account for the lack of volunteers in the Quellette campaign.
This election could turn into a rout for the Ryan campaign.
07 09 15 Marie
Let's look at this rationally.
The auto layoffs will have to affect negatively the vote for the current government. Coupled with a weaker candidate Liberal vote will evaporate.
So who benefits? Obviously some may opt for PC but in a ‘rust belt’ city like Oshawa that may be limited. So it has to be the NDP who will pick up most of the Liberal vote so Sid Ryan will be the new MPP!
07 09 14 rexthedog
This will be a tough three way race. I'm not sure how the downturn in the Auto sector will play out this time. Will the voters blame McGuinty, or will they blame the Feds, or both. Certainly they will be angry, and anger leads to a volatile electorate. Sid, as an old unionist, will probably know how to exploit that better than most. One to watch, and probably TCTC
07 09 13 Andrew - Oshawa
The NDP has certainly gained greater name recognition in Sid Ryan, as he's knocked the doors twice since the last Provincial Election. The last Federal Election encompassed the revised boundaries currently in play for the Provincial Election. This gives the NDP Candidate a quicker start in the areas added to the Provincial Riding since he'll have his polling data on the area from the Federal Election.
Their candidate while seasoned at elections, lacks consistency. He was interested in Scarborough initially on a Provincial level. Then he sought a Provincial seat in Oshawa, then, his interest turned to a Federal seat twice. Now, the NDP Candidate is interested once again in a Provincial seat.
At least we can say that the current Progressive Conservative Candidate, Mr. Jerry Ouellette has been consistent and loyal to Oshawa. He started Provincially, has continued Provincially, and doesn't even look towards the Federal realm.
The race will be tight as the Liberals lack a candidate who seems so far to be unknown, and inactive when it comes to a campaign. The short turn around selected by her Leader from the writ to the polls can only harm her efforts. Even had she hoit the ground running, the lack of recognition would have eaten the first two weeks.
The Liberal Riding Association in Oshawa is in such a state of shambles, they had no choice but to move two municipalities west to find a candidate. Now if only they can find the means to bring volunteers from their candidates hometown to help here with this election.
A possibility not mentioned by many is that at the end of the day, those who rebelled before may come home. It's quite possible that those who are former Progressive Conservatives who rebelled at Mr. Harris and Mr. Eve's, and went Liberal or NDP last time to return to the PC camp. This would certainly topple a few apple carts in the other camps.
07 09 11 A.S.
Yes, Ouellette won; but it was with, like, what? The third or fourth lowest PC percentage in the 905 belt? (And the only defeated incumbent among them being Raminder Gill--yes, a whole slew of PC incumbents in the 905 were blown out with higher votes than Jerry Ouellette got.) Sure, Sid Ryan's lost again and again, but there's always the last federal Charlton/Marston/Mathyssen victories-at-last to affirm that certain never-say-die NDP spirit that's to be reckoned with--and perhaps Sid would even have joined them at Ottawa, too, had he not been up against a Harper's-party incumbent; well, that freed him up for now, and, uh, John Tory's no Stephen Harper (whatever that means). And perhaps this time, *at last*, esp. w/a Grit candidate that's no Louise Parkes or even 'gee whiz, he came second last time so maybe we ought to vote for him now' Chris Topple, Oshawans will come to realize that they're wasting their vote with the Liberals? (But would those particular voters swing left or right?)
07 09 10 Brendan B.
Who is everybody kidding?? This riding is part of the 905 Provincial Tory Blue Belt, Ouellette won in the last election even with the Liberals rise to the top.. Sid couldn't win it federally, and he certainly won't win it provincially. It will be close though.
07 09 02 Bus driver
With the Liberals nominating an unknown candidate this has got to be good for Ryan. The Conservatives can only win Oshawa when there is a close 3 way split. Ryan has beaten the Liberals into 3rd place on three separate occasions (including hi-profile Deputy Mayor Louise Parkes). The Liberals have clearly decided that Oshawa is not winnable thereby clearing the path for the NDP to take back Oshawa. I think the fact Ryan has run several times proves he is not a quitter and he really does want to represent Oshawa at Queens Park. It's important to note that each time he has run he has improved his vote tally by about 3000. Quellette is nowhere to be seen or heard on Oshawa issues. He has been coasting for the past 12 years with little or nothing to show for his time at Queens Park.
07 09 01 RyanOntario
Very tight race in this riding. first off don't think the liberal Faelyne Templer has much chance . as i understand she doesn't live in oshawa and was just nominated so she hasn't had much time to prepare. also be interesting to see if the GM layoffs are a factor.
the race between Jerry Ouellette and Sid Ryan will be close. but myself i Wonder if sid ryan has ran too many times unsuccessfully in this riding? . but recent results for the pc's here weren't over 40% so its not safe pc territory . so this could be one of the closest ridings in the province .
07 08 28 Hussain Alavi
Ryan has generally taken the whoop-up-the-crowd approach...made easier by the fact that he has planted an NDP cheerleading team at various points within each debate's loads of sympathy polls for Ryan.
It looks like Sid Ryan has an excellent chance of winning this riding based on many factors. He has a high profile in this region, he has lived here for 24 years and is a nationally known figure on tv and radio talk shows.
07 07 28 Bus Driver
This will definitely be an exciting election. Word around town and with people riding the bus is that the Liberals are in a bit of a mess. No candidate named as yet and no plans for a nomination meeting.
Ryan has got to like that as the Liberals split 2 to 1 to the NDP.
Just opened the local newspaper (Oshawa This Week) and there is Ryan with a banner headline ?Sid Ryan calls for waterfront summit? You gotta hand it to him, he knows how to get at the issues.
His Conservative opponent Jerry Quellette's comments in the article, comes across as weak and defensive. The waterfront has been an isue for past 12 years. During that time Mr Quellette was in government for 8 out of 12 years and he did nothing to fix the problem. Now he claims there are secret discussions taking place with some stakeholders behind closed doors.
07 07 17 Bus Driver
Oshawa is in for a humdinger of an election. Just saw Ryan say on CITY TV that he intends to seek the NDP nomination in Oshawa. This is not good news for the low key and almost invisible Jerry Quellette. In their last match up 4 years ago Mr Quellette pulled 13,400 votes. In his last federal election ..12 months ago..Ryan pulled 18,400 votes. The Liberals will not be a factor..they have not won Oshawa provincially in over 40 years. Watch for the NDP to pour resources into Oshawa. Ryan is tipped by Toronto Star and NDP insiders to be the next leader of provincial NDP.
07 07 13 Rural Analyst
Too close to call.
A three-way race may be brewing here. Sid Ryan has a strong base of support, but little room to grow past the low 30s as he is too left-wing for the majority in Oshawa. Only a perfect split can move this into the NDP column. The PC's and Jerry Ouellette were beneficiaries of a vote-split in 2003 and may be so again. The Liberals are always fairly strong as well, and urban growth has only helped them, but can they make up the ground? Should be exciting!
07 06 06 Adam
Oshawa is up there on the list of targeted NDP ridings, it almost always is but look for a hard push this election. There is a tradition here, it was solidly NDP but fell in the Harris sweep, since then Oshawa has somehwat morphed into a suburban tory riding. But still TCTC at this point. The results from 03 showed the NDP in a strong second place and If a strong candidate like Syd Ryan is back in the game i will give the advantage to the NDP here. The tories have the Incumbency and MP factor on their side and that might just keep this riding Tory blue. I'd bet that the Liberal vote crumbles here: many right-of centre Liberals looking at the John Tory centrist Tories as a better fit... and just as many left-of-centre Liberals switching over to the NDP who have out performed the Grits this session. But who will benefit more is the question. This riding, come election night will bounce from NDP to Tory.. TCTC
07 06 02 King of Kensington
I wouldn't necessarily call this one for the Tories. The NDP has been consistently been polling much higher in Ontario than in the last provincial election and Oshawa is certainly a target. Besides conservatism in Oshawa is more of the populist ?Reagan Democrat? style of Mike Harris than the ?Rockefeller Republican? style of John Tory. Tory comes across as very patrician and may hurt the Conservatives in blue collar Oshawa. For now, it's TCTC.
07 05 07 Angry Ontarian
The provincial and federal Tories have been successful keeping Oshawa blue, despite good efforts from the NDP. Should go PC again.

Submit Information here

Regional Index
Ontario Provincial - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster