Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Belanger, Matthew

Fudge, Ben

Leadbetter, Stacey

Menezes, Jacquie

Ouellette, Jerry J

Shields, Mike

Jerry J. Ouellette


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 Double J
    How many times have the NDP predicted a victory in Oshawa and come up short both in federal and provincial campaigns. Syd Ryan was a lock to win Oshawa in two provincial campaigns before he walked away with a couple of loses. Once again the Liberals will get their 20 per cent of the vote and let Jerry Oulette ride the vote splits to victory.
    11 10 01 A.S.
    When it comes to a seat of Oshawa's electoral idiosyncracy, the most federal results work on behalf of *both* the Tories *and* the NDP--and despite claims of its being now terminally out of reach for the NDP, it isn't. Above all, the federal Conservative vote was a ?strong incumbent party? vote. And despite Double J's claims, it isn't so much explained through ?Oshawa's auto workers now vote Tory?; more that with 905 growth, the auto sector plays less and less of a role in Oshawa's economy--it's more of a ?Whitby East? thing. And even that pattern isn't necessarily set for life--in fact, on behalf of the dominant economy, bear in mind that Andrea Horwath has stronger familial auto-sector credentials than any provincial or federal leader in ages. Ouellette may be the incumbent; but he hasn't crested 40% in the McGuinty era, and Hudak's not the vote-booster that Harper was--and moreover, in this paradoxical case, Horwath may be *more* of a vote-booster than Jack Layton was...
    11 10 01 MF
    While I still think that given Oshawa's voting patterns in recent years, this should stay Conservative, I have to say Mike Shields sounds like an extraordinary candidate. As Gerald Caplan stated in the Globe and Mail (Sept. 23): ?When you look at his background, you think: This guy should be running for federal leader...This is exactly the kind of candidate every party dreams of recruiting.? In addition to being president of a CAW local Shields was chairman of the board of Ontario's only non-profit dental center, coach of the year for the little NHL, and won the Queen's Jubilee Award for his volunteer work, etc. Shields also has the endorsement of the former Liberal candidate, Dr. Sean Godfrey, chief of pediatrics at the Oshawa hospital.
    Of course not too many folks in Oshawa read the Globe or base their voting decisions based on the opinion of one of their columnists, but I should say the current situation is probably the best it's been in years for an NDP breakthrough, provincially or federally. The NDP is polling at similar levels as it did during the last federal election, but the Conservatives aren't polling nearly as well. This means it's likely the Liberals will be losing a lot of their left flank to the NDP (as they did federally), but ?blue Liberals? aren't as likely to go to the PCs.
    11 09 25 R.O.
    The forum poll does not indicate an ndp pick up here , the numbers according to Toronto Star map and article are 39 pc , 31 ndp and 22 lib for Oshawa . which is oddly close to the 07 results and the riding of Oshawa is not even included on list of 25 ridings within margin of error where no party has a big enough lead for them to pick likely winner. however Oshawa is usually a closer race than other durham region ridings and i wouldn't expect a massive win for Jerry Ouellette but its still going to stay conservative . this is Suburban 905 country now its not the same riding that went ndp in 70's and 80's.
    11 09 25 AD
    This could be a closer race but I don't think the NDP have much of a chance to secure a pick-up here against the PC incumbant. In fact I'd be surprised if any of the PC incbumbants lose their seat in this election. The candidate does seem strong, so that is one possible factor that could change things greatly. If Mike Sheilds is indeed well known and the electorate responds well to him, he could very much take this seat.
    11 09 24 Ms from Durham
    Polls show Hudak's campaign stalled and the NDP inching slowly up, I think this is the election that NDP finally breaks through here. NDP up by 5 points.
    11 09 24 Marshall Howard Bader
    All polling indicates the NDP will pick this one up including the new riding by riding Forum poll.
    11 09 22 Double J
    Every election it's the same thing. The NDP claim they're going to ?take back? Oshawa because it was Ed Broadbent's riding in the 70's. That's not going to happen. The auto workers in Oshawa don't vote NDP any more. They vote Tory. Add to that a Liberal campaign that always gets 20 per cent of the vote and the NDP can't come out on top. Sid Ryan gave up running here because he couldn't win. Mike Shields won't do any better than Ryan did. Jerry Ouellette will hold this riding again.
    11 09 21 Love Game
    Let's not yet count out the NDP in this riding. Other projection sites have placed this in the NDP win column with up to 5 percentage points over the Conservatives.
    Oshawa is one of those ridings where the parties will really need to motivate their supporters to actually vote because it is that close.
    This will be one to watch on 6 October.
    11 09 10 Josh
    The ONDP and its federal counterpart are constantly running former union figures, thinking that will lock up the vote and propel them to victory. With Mike Shields as the ONDP candidate, they are at it again - and it won't work. Oulette will return to Queen's Park.
    11 07 20 jeff316
    There are certain spots of the province where bad Liberal numbers result in big NDP losses. This is one of them. The NDP needs the Libs to be strong enough to keep the Conservative numbers down; when the Liberal vote collapses in places like this, it trends overwhelmingly Conservative. This should be a big Conservative win, just like the previous federal race.
    11 05 07 Donna M Deisiel
    This would probably be a close but no cigar for the NDP, unless the word on the street is true and Mike Shields throws his name in the ring. This would spell defeat for the long time and low profile incumbent Jerry Oullette.
    11 03 03 MF
    Jerry Ouelette won this by a pretty comfortable margin last time...and this was with the upper-crust non-populist John Tory at the helm, who certainly had a problem appealing to among working class voters. Tim Hudak's populist ‘Common Sense’ brand of conservatism should play much better in Oshawa, not to mention the Conservatives will almost certainly be on the upswing this year. The NDP will remain its ‘party of opposition’ position here, with the Liberals even less of a factor.
    11 02 21 seasaw
    Jerry Ouelette has been able to hold on to this riding under the toughest circumstances, with some star candidate as his opponent. At one time this was considered a safe NDP riding but not anymore. At the present time, the Tories are doing well in polls, if it holds up expect Ouelette to win big, if not, he will still win, but not with a big margin.

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