Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:16:00

Constituency Profile


Bates, Gail

Belanger, Matthew

Buckley, Chris

Carrie, Colin

Gershuny, David

Morton, James Cooper

Colin Carrie

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • durham (42/199 Polls)
  • oshawa (164/208 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 02 Orange Backing
    Colin Carrie is a forever Conservative lightweight backbencher voting party line on each occasion. As long as he ducks like he has in the past, the ‘true blue’ always show up on election day. Mr. Carrie may not have the luxury of vote spliting in this election he enjoyed in the past. The Liberals are toast this time so it should be very close this time and Buckley gets the nod :-)
    11 05 01 Wingnut31
    Let's not give The Conservatives too much credit for saving GM after the size of the bailout Washington gave to the auto industry, my guess that was the reason Mr Harper followed suit in Canada. The credit goes to Mr. Obama which I'm sure won't sit well with the right.
    11 05 01
    The Orange wave will sweep into Oshawa and take this seat..will not even be close. Layton btw stopped here today.
    11 05 01 MF
    If the NDP doesn't get this, there will be a barrage of posts attacking ‘delusional NDPers who think they can take Oshawa’ in the next EPP go-around. So I'm going to say Colin Carrie will be re-elected. He did get 41% of the last time vs. 32% for the NDP. But I expect it to be closer.
    11 04 30 R.O.
    This is a perennial ndp target but keeps going conservative at federal and provincial levels . conservatives remain stable in ontario according to most polls or at least at 08 levels of support . liberals way down but liberal vote allready collapsed here in 08 and it still didn't go ndp. older Ontario voters also still remember Bob Rae years and that is something that always turns them off from ndp. alot of people allready voted in advance polls and that makes it harder for ndp to come from behind. Colin Carrie also wins suburban areas of riding and those are where most new homes are being built and more voters now. where is ndp wins the older portions of city near the waterfront and downtown.
    11 04 30 paul b
    As a 31 year CAW member, I predict Carrie gets re-elected due to the support of those working in the assembly plants and parts suppliers. The Conservatives saved GM, and by extension, Oshawa with the loans to help the company survive. Still find it quite laughable Buckley has the nerve to stand up and say Conservatives did nothing for Oshawa. Probably saved his job as CAW chair for 222.
    11 04 30 905Guy
    On the flip to undecided... Oh Please! GM and subsequently the CAW and Chris Buckley are minute in the scheme of things. GM employes... what 4300 people? Fact of the matter is most GM employees vote CPC and so they should, they bailed you out and are the reason you have a job! CC will win tgis riding by more votes than he ever has... count on it!
    11 04 29 J S
    Carrie is toast. The NDP have the momentum and the candidate. The Liberals will not screw up the vote with their earnest call to ‘vote strategic, vote Liberal’. Oshawa voters know that the only way to defeat a Conservative is to vote NDP. Besides, if Colin Carrie were any further in the back benches, he would be standing in the Ottawa river.
    11 04 29 All Over the Map
    Now *this* is an interesting riding. The Conservatives will very likely hold their own. However, with the Liberals, and to a lesser extent the Greens, down a great deal in Ontario compared to last time, an irresistible inference is that rallying around the NDP is going to work here.
    11 04 29
    This seat will return to the NDP much like Ed Broadbent first won it..plus the implosion of the Liberal vote insures the win in the dying days of the campaign...unions are concentrated on this riding
    11 04 28 binriso
    This may be one of the poster-childs for strategic anti-CPC voting, as the NDP are not far off.
    11 04 27 will87
    I will leave this TCTC for now. The NDP is trending nationally, but, at least according to some pollsters, haven't necessarily translated this into Ontario. As for the Liberals their candidate is someone I had heard might be running against Peter Shurman in Thornhill in the Provincial Election.
    11 04 27 Josh S
    This will finally fall to the NDP. With the NDP rising, and the Liberals falling, in Ontario Buckely will scoop up enough Liberal votes to win it.
    11 04 26 MH
    This is a riding where the 'anybody but Harper' vote will go to Chris Buckley. It is not (yet) clear whether the NDP is as resurgent in Ontario as in Quebec and B.C., but even a modest movement upward and strategic voting by Liberal supporters could easily put this in the NDP column. Colin Carrie may hang on, but this is now definitely TCTC.
    11 04 24 I P Freely
    This election in this riding is not easy to call. Colin Carrie has held this seat for the last 3 elections by small margins, and seems to have done an OK but low profile job, but Cons will be hit by the general mood of distrust of Harper Government. Libs didn't even have a candidate or a nomination meeting the day the election was called, which looks really bad on Liberals organization, and now the Lib parachute candidate from Thornhill is almost invisible, no info by mail or at the door, have the Libs given up? So that leaves the NDP's Chris Buckley, who hardly looks or sounds the part, but maybe he can ride Jack Layton's coat-tails or benefit from the anti-Harper protest vote mood.
    11 04 22 MKS from Durham
    Buckley will prove to be a much tougher opponent that Sid Ryan due to him being local, well-known and well respected in the riding. Also the Liberals have known an unknown parachute candidate from outside the area, who will not be a factor, and expect much of the former Liberal support to go to the ndp, putting them over the tories.
    11 04 18 Smitty
    bza. In order for the NDP to ‘take back the shwa’ they must do something only Ed Broadbent has ever done in this riding. Win in a General election. Why does the NDP think this is a winnable riding? Colin will win this year, strategic voting or not.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The NDP always seems to have a strong second place showing but can never pull this off. The biggest challenge they have is much of the growth in this riding has been on the north side which is mostly your middle class suburban commuters, not your blue collar union workers. In the past three elections, the NDP won most of the polls in the older parts of the riding, but lost in most of the newer parts, thus they will likely have another strong showing, but not enough to take this.
    11 04 14 MH
    In 2008 this was close enough so that, if Liberals vote strategically this time, they will direct this into the NDP column. Not saying it will happen, but it could. This may be TCTC, therefore, but for now it belongs in the Conservative column. To be revisited, however.
    11 04 13 John G.
    This riding will remain conservative, but not for ideological reasons. Collin Carrie is not a strong MP; he is essentially invisible even in the local media, and is nowhere to be seen in the town other than the annual festival in the lakeshore park. However he consistently increased his vote since his surprise win in 2004. The fact is that the NDP era in Oshawa is over. Chris Buckley looks like your grandfather's union pal; his look and manner do not appeal to the new suburban and university type voters of Oshawa. If Syd Ryan failed to win it, Buckley will have no chance. The only way this riding may change hand in future is if Liberals bring in a star (and moderate) candidate, something they have not done in the past two elections because they thought this was an NDP-CPC battleground. Not anymore.
    11 04 11 bza
    I wouldn't quite say this riding is a Conservative cakewalk quite yet. The NDP have fielded another strong Union candidate with Chris Buckley, the president of the CAW Local running.
    The Liberals will probably continue to decline as it seems like they have given up on Oshawa, since they couldn't even find a local candidate to enter the race and have a guy running from Thornhill.
    If voters know that the NDP is the only real way to defeat the Conservatives in this riding, it could be a close race, and its not a stretch to say that the NDP could take back the 'shwa.
    11 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Collapse of the NDP vote to the Liberals in Ontario will ensure the CPC keeps this riding.
    11 04 07 Marco Ricci
    I think the Conservatives will hold this for the foreseeable future. For the past several elections, both provincially and federally, a division in the vote between the Liberals and the NDP has allowed the Conservatives to win. Until the Conservatives drop significantly in Ontario, or until the incumbent retires, I don't see that situation changing.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    An NDP-Conservative battleground. In the past three elections, both parties have gained, but more so for the Tories. The NDP does well in the inner core but the Tories more in the Eastern and Northern parts which are more your typical 905 suburbs as opposed to blue collar working class. The Liberals won't win but could play kingmaker. Interestingly enough the Liberals are strongest in the same area as the Tories so many are probably Blue Liberals rather than progressive ones so the better they do the better the chances of an NDP pickup and the worse they do the better it is for the Tories. At this point it is the Tories to lose, but still a bit early to make a firm call.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    ‘If the NDP is likely to pick up any seat in Ontario, this is it.’ But this isn't it. There will be no NDP pickups in Ontario whatsoever. With a very strong rising Green provincial vote, relatively strong federal vote that comes maybe 2/3 off the Liberals and 1/3 off the NDP (except for those who would only ever vote Green or vote swap to get May elected, etc.) it gets easier in every election for Conservatives to vote-split. Remember Chretien taking all then-103 seats in Ontario? That's what vote splitting does. Unless all of Ontario learns to vote swap, Harper will be gaining in 2011.
    ‘Oshawa seems to be a continual disappointment’ and would indeed need a strong local candidate ‘like Peter Kormos’ or run ‘an Ed Broadbent or Bill Blaikie-type leader’ to win here. One can't deny that ‘the Conservatives have beaten them three times (count em: 3) in a row with increasing margins of victory.’ With a general Conservative nation-wide rise, it is not credible that the NDP could unify the left vote and win this one now.
    The auto industry itself has changed, but in Ontario electric cars means *nuclear* powered cars, and that probably favour the Cons or the Liberals. A truly smart grid for Ontario is a very long time off, the idea of a clean auto industry is a joke at least until then, and baseload ideology (nukes charging the cars overnight cheap with spare power) will dominate thereby. There is no reason to believe the NDP can help with any of this, when their agenda is nonsense like removing tax from fossil fuels.
    11 03 07
    The race here will almost certainly be between the Conservatives and NDP, as it has been for the last few elections. Unfortunately for the NDP, regardless of circumstances they always seem to put up a good fight that doesn't quite have enough to put them over the top. Even the 2008 collapse of the Liberal vote couldn't overcome Carrie. It just seems that the NDP can reliably turn out a third of the vote but the rest of the riding won't consider them.
    10 09 10 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We still say this race is TCTC. As was mentioned by A.S., the NDP share did go up in 2008 under Shields. There is the issue of if and where sit out voters from '08 will cast their vote. There is the possibility of an HST backlash championed by the NDP (you can bet they will traget this one). There is the fact that CPC support in Ontario has been up and down (down at the moment). So really one can not certainly call it one way or another.
    Another point which is fairly academic at the moment. If you look at the poll by poll results from '08, the NDP won the polls towards the center of the riding while the CPC won at the polls along the edges (particularly in the north). When redistribution happens and Ontario gets those twenty-some-odd new seats, the Oshawa riding will shrink. This will likely help the NDP in a big way as the less friendly polls get chopped off onto an adjacent or new riding.
    10 01 05 R.O.
    This was one of the few GTA/905 ridings to actually go conservative in 2004 and it has stayed that way since then. and i honestly think it would take something pretty significant for it to go anywhere else. The economy could of been that something except for the fact the opposition parties became fixated on an election that no one wanted last year and the conservatives economic action plan has proved to be rather successful. one thing that has changed here since 2004 is the lack of a 3 way race as its largely became a conservative / ndp race which is rather shocking when considering the ridings less than a half hour from the liberal fortress of Toronto and many residents of the riding commute to work in Toronto. but i honestly don't see the liberals making much improvements here and they don't even have any potential candidates at the moment so the ndp with the support of the local CAW and candidate Chris Buckley will continue to be Colin Carrie's main opponents in the riding for now.
    09 09 11 Marco Ricci
    I don't think this riding is in play for the NDP. The NDP numbers would have to go up in Ontario more for that to happen and they are on a bit of a decline in the latest federal polls. The NDP has missed out on winning this riding both federally AND provincially for several elections now. It isn't just a federal problem, but a provincial problem as well. The NDP has a core base of support here, but it isn't enough to put them over the top without there being a game changer in the riding or without Conservative support dropping in the area.
    09 09 11 A.S.
    Keep in mind that relative to previous years, there *wasn't* the ?chorus of NDP predictions? for Oshawa in '08; in fact, it took something like 35 posts for the first NDP prediction to be posted. And there was a good reason: after repeated Sid Ryan losses federally and provincially, even the so-called NDP chorus seemed borderline prepared to give up, especially without a candidate of Ryan's profile. That's what ought to be factored in re Colin Carrie's increased margin: the consensus that Mike Shields was no Syd Ryan, together with things going up for the Tories across the board in Ontario anyway--yet keep in mind that even the NDP share went up 1 1/4 points! That's right, Mike Shields did better, sharewise, than Sid Ryan *ever* did. And that's with growth patterns not favouring the NDP; and it isn't like things are getting any better for GM. Still in play, folks; it'd only be if Carrie topped 45% and Shields went beneath 30% (i.e. double the margin) that I'd consider otherwise...
    09 09 10 MF
    If the NDP is likely to pick up any seat in Ontario, this is it. However Oshawa seems to be a continual disappointment for them, and even with the Tories likely to lose ground, I will still give them the edge in Oshawa. Perhaps the NDP needs someone like Peter Kormos to win in Oshawa?
    09 08 30 Stevo
    I think perhaps the usual chorus of NDP predictions for Oshawa will be tempered this time around now that the Conservatives have beaten them three times (count em: 3) in a row with increasing margins of victory. Until the NDP gets an Ed Broadbent or Bill Blaikie-type leader, the NDP will continue to fall short here.
    09 08 23 Observer
    This riding is getting more and more Conservative. It can switch to the NDP which has still good numbers but I can see it happening in the near future. Remember that although Oshawa was one of the most hit ridings by unemployment and losses of manufacturing jobs, it reelected the Conservative incumbent MP with an increased margin and even Ed Broadbent heavily campaign here didn't helped the NDP.

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