Update:
10:57 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:08 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
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Vancouver Quadra
Federal Election - 2006



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
NDP/NPD
David Askew
Marijuana
Marc Boyer
Independent
Betty Krawczyk
Libearl/libéral
Stephen Owen
Conservative/conservateur
Stephen Rogers
Green/Vert
Ben West
Marxist-Leninist
Donovan Young

Incumbent:
Hon. Stephen Owen

2004 Result:
Stephen Owen
29187
Stephen Rogers
14648
David Askew
8348
Doug Warkentin
3118
Connie Fogal
165
Katrina Chowne
151
Donovan Young
48

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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20 01 06 Harv J
If I am not mistaken, the combined predecessor parties that form the Conservative party today would have beaten the Liberals in Vancouver Quadra two elections ago. The last election, resulting in the Liberal winning by a large margin, was probably an aberration, brought on in part from NDP and Green voters temporarily switching to the Liberals. If those voters return to their traditional roots this time, and if a few more thousand decide to punish the Liberals, the seat will change to Conservative.
13 01 06 Anchor
This belongs to Owen, no matter how slow his campaign goes. However, he will not win by the margins he did last time, mainly because of the rock bottom national Liberal campaign, and the Tory surge in polls. And... to my surprise, many don't think Harper is scary anymore! I've talked to a lot of people in this riding- former Liberal voters, who are voting Conservative this time round.
12 01 06 MF
One of the safest ridings in western Canada. Like St. Paul's in Toronto, it is a bastion of upscale, highly-educated urban liberalism that vehemently opposes any hint of social conservatism. The Point Grey northern half of the riding is more left-wing than the southern Quilchena half due to the university presence/Kitsilano. If Gordon Campbell wasn't the premier, it wouldn't have been safe for the BC Liberals. The south is more "suburban" and more open to the Tory message but even there the social conservatism is a tough sell.
09 01 06 M. Lunn
I don't think election signs are a very good indicator. Last time around Stephen Rogers was winning the sign war yet lost badly. Even in Toronto the Tories I've heard are winning the sign war, but I cannot see them winning many seats there, maybe the 905 belt. It is true the combined right in 2000 would have won this, however unlike further East, most of the Progressive Conservative vote in BC wanted nothing to do with the Alliance and has since swung over to the Liberals. Also the merger has been more successful in rural/suburban areas. In urban ridings the Conservatives fell way short of the combined vote and likely will again. I've talked to a lot of people in Vancouver including even many who voted for the right leaning BC Liberals and almost everyone I know seems terrified of Stephen Harper becoming PM. In the suburbs they are more comfortable, but not in the city. However this is somewhat of a right wing riding since municipally except for Kitsilano, it went mostly NPA and provincially the BC Liberals won both ridings Vancouver-Quilchena (Colin Hansen in a landslide) and Vancouver-Point Grey (Gordon Campbell in a somewhat closer race). However, I've noticed many people who had BC Liberal signs last provincial election and NPA signs last municipal elections have Liberal signs up. Also the addition of Kitsilano only hurt the Conservatives somewhat, since last time around they only won one poll in the whole riding.
08 01 06 Vortigern
In terms of signage, along SW Marine Drive and 41st, Rogers and Owen looked roughly tied, with Askew signs rare. Along 10th/Broadway, I'd say Askew is actually in the lead, followed by Rogers and then Owen.
More important, I think, is the history of this riding - it has been Liberal for over 20 years, and was the only seat they held west of Ontario in 1984. Interestingly enough, during the 90s the Reform + PC vote did exceed the Liberal vote here, which perhaps explains why the Cons like their chances here now. The problem is that the boundary changes of 2003, which brought Kitsilano into the riding, were very unfavourable to the Conservatives.
My guess is that Owen will slip by about 5%, with Askew and Rogers splitting that vote.
09 01 06 Opinionated in Quadra
Three pieces of mail from Rogers and two calls from their phone bank. First one probed for undecideds, the second one was a persuasion call from an informed volunteer.
One pamphlet from the NDP candidate. Nothing from Owen's campaign. Driving down Dunbar, Angus, Cypress and Arbutus, Rogers' signs outflank Owen's. The Tories seem to be hitting pretty aggressively.
With name recognition for all three candidates up because they all ran last time, and with the downturn in the national fortunes of the Liberals, Quadra could well go Conservative.
07 01 06 A Vancouverite
Owen campaign: There seems to be way less signs than last time on private property (and believe me, I volunteered for the Liberals last election and there already weren't very many Liberal signs), we have not received one phone call from their campaign, and we have received one pamphlet so far with Owen's resume.
Rogers campaign: By far the most signs around Vancouver Quadra on private property, on big streets and on little streets. Phone calling for Rogers yields positive results, as a majority seems to be voting Conservative. We have received two pamphlets so far with the Conservative platform and Rogers' biography and resume.
Askew campaign: Many signs around Vancouver Quadra on private property, on big streets and on little streets. So far, we have not received one NDP phone call or pamphlet.
The thing is, there are not very many signs in this riding. There are some signs, but never concentrated. They are all spread out all over the place. People seem generally disinterested. My point? The people here are very federally non-partisan. They'll switch their votes whenever. Owen seems to be running a very slow campaign... and with these things in mind, I do not believe Owen will win by the margins we saw him win last time. In 2004, there was a surge of "Harper is scary" votes, but this time, Harper has toned down his image, made himself look more Prime Ministeral and father-like, and most importantly, moved his platform to centre-right and made it moderate. I believe Owen will win again, but the momentum is against him.
07 01 06 bas
A much more subdued sign count in Quadra this time around - many homes that touted Stephen Owen signs in 2004 have (so far) passed on them this time around. Kits and Pt. Grey show Owen strongly; Kerrisdale and Southlands have some Owen support but a lot of Rodgers. Mid-riding - along the spine of King Edward - David Askew has a fair number of signs up, more so than I recall in 2004. Despite the signage, the fall in Liberal fortunes, etc. I'll still suggest that Quadra might well be the last Liberal redoubt west of Ontario in a total collapse of the party - but I expect the results to be much closer than the 2:1 ratio of last time around.
13 12 05 Editor's Correction
It was brought to our attention that a posting dated seven months ago (May 2nd, 2005) contains serious and libellous factual errors regarding the Conservative candidate. The posting WRONGLY suggests that the Stephen Rogers, a former minister under Social Credit government, was previously incarcerated. The only Social Credit minister that was jailed (for accepting bribe) was Robert E. Sommers. Mr. Rogers did in fact resigned over conflict of interests, but was never charged. We sincerely apologize for the error.
05 12 05 quasar
My own riding. I volunteered for Owen last time round, and I must say their campaign was pretty slack, while Rogers had troops going out each night, winning votes one by one. Yet, somehow, Owen managed to landslide this riding into a win. This is an extremely wealthy riding, but socially moderate, and I think last time, voters were frightened by the Liberal ads that induced fear of the Conservatives. I personally know many long-time Liberal voters who are switching this time, mainly because they want change. I think it is also because the Tories have made their patform more moderate, and if they base their campaign on an appealing, moderate, centre-right platform, Rogers will do much better than he did here last election. He still won't be able to win, but if he comes at least 5000 points away from Owen, it'll be a victory for him because that means this riding is still winnable.
15 06 05 hatman
Vancouver Quadra is where the NDP has no chance in Vancouver. It is in the right winged portion of Vancouver, and is where the Conservatives come in second. But above all else, remember: Quadra = Liberal. The tories may be 2nd fiddle, but they werent even able to win here in 1984! That was with a Conservative incumbent too! They must have loved Turner. Either that or they hated Trudeau. Bottom line is Quadra is going red again.
06 06 05 Craig
Safest Liberal seat in Western Canada, this riding is an anomaly in the west - affluent, socially liberal, fiscally somewhat conservative - not unlike the inner suburban areas around Toronto. Even AdScam won't defeat Stephen Owen. The Conservatives are too weak due to social policies and the NDP even weaker due to fiscal policies that are not liked in this affluent riding. Predicted results: LIB 48%, CPC 28%, NDP 15%, GRN 8%, others 1%.
07 05 05 BrianJA
Vancouver Quadra, with its mix of bohemian artists in Kitsilano, rowdy college students in UBC and wealthy property-owners in and around Point Grey and Arbutus, makes for a interesting result. The fact is, this riding is the epitomy of Liberal. Stephen Owen is a Liberal who is progressive, outgoing and free of scandal. Plus, he's running on his personal popularity in a riding that would vote Liberal anyway. Result: If the Grits hold only one riding in British Columbia, it'll be this one. Owen will hold on with a majority vote.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
Taking a majority here last time, and taking twise as many votes as the nearest opponent does not hurt either. While anything can happen with Gomnery in play, I think this is one of the safest BC ridings. The tories would need to run someone pretty locally popular here to win, and I just cant see the stars lining up to make everything that would need to happen, happen. This will be a victory for the grits unless something huge changes, Gomery as it is, is not enough.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
This is a wealthy urban type riding. That means they don't like the NDP's tax and spend policies, but don't like the Conservatives social policies. Regardless of how well the liberals do nationally or in BC, this will stay liberal. Interstingly enough, this is a solid provincial liberal area, especially Vancouver-Quilchena (who are conservative on economic issues), so if the Conservatives stuck solely to economic issues they might have a decent shot. But as long as they continue to push socially conservative policies, expect this to stay liberal federally and provincially.
02 05 05 Jay
This has been solid Liberal turf for many elections now. The NDP Canadidate will not win here because many people here have a large income. With this in mind, and Stephen Owen's honest image, he will easily get re elected.
Edited - 13/12/05



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