Update:
10:57 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
3:29 PM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project
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Vancouver Kingsway
Federal Election - 2006



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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Communist
Kimball Cariou
Libearl/libéral
David Emerson
Canadian Action
Connie Fogal
Libertarian
Matt Kadioglu
Marxist-Leninist
Donna Petersen
Green/Vert
Arno Schortinghuis
NDP/NPD
Ian Waddell
Conservative/conservateur
Kanman Wong

Incumbent:
Hon. David Emerson

2004 Result:
David Emerson
17267
Ian Waddell
15916
Jesse Johl
7037
Tracey Jastinder Mann
1521
IND
Jeannie Kwan
548
Jason Mann
172
Jacob Rempel
142
Donna Petersen
94

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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20 01 06 Jon.
The Libs are getting desperate, bringing in volunteers from Vancouver South and Quadra, where Dosanjh and Owen respectively have their ridings all but sewn up. Layton's "just this once" appeal is likely to resonate here, particularly as it looks more and more like a Conservative win next week. Look for Waddell to knock off Emerson.
19 01 06 D
With the Liberal campaign stumbling and fumbling towards the finish line, it is becoming more and more of a reality that we will have a Conservative government (majority or minority). There is a lot of people disenchanted with the Liberals, including those who voted for Emerson in 2004, and they will either park their vote elsewhere or sit at home.
It is evident in Vancouver Kingsway that the Conservatives are picking up steam. Let's not forget that right-of-centre parties can be successful in this riding; after all, Alice Wong of the Canadian Alliance won over 11,000 votes in 2000. The Conservatives need to draw their vote from somewhere, and it's more likely that they will draw their vote from the Liberals than the NDP.
In regards to the Chinese-Canadian vote, the numerous Liberal gaffes during the campaign has made many of them aware that there are alternatives to the Liberals. Many of them will go to the Conservatives, but there is also a percentage of them going to the NDP because of the head tax issue (to a lesser extent the "Chow Chow Dog" gaffe and to a much lesser extent the "Boiled Dog's Head" comment). My point here is that the Chinese-Canadian vote will bleed from the Liberals and go the Conservatives and a bit to the NDP.
Despite the Conservatives' reversal of fortunes from 2004, in Vancouver Kingsway and the rest of Canada, it is highly doubtful that they will increase their vote over 200% and take the riding. However, they will have a respectable showing in Vancouver Kingsway. This Tory surge will lead to a three-way race in this riding, and Ian Waddell of the NDP will go through the middle, perhaps quite similar to the NDP's wins in Burnaby-Douglas in the last two federal elections.
18 01 06 Bear and Ape
Wong is going to be the kingmaker and we are seeing King Ian riding to victory in this riding. Emerson of course was in cabinet but that means little as most people have come to accept the reality that we will likely have a CPC government next week. The fiasco with the head tax is goign to hurt the Liberals, as if they were not hurting enough. Waddell need only to hold what he had last time and let Wong yank votes away from Emerson. We also wonder how many traditional Liberal voters are going to be wooed by Layton's "Lend me your vote" appeal. Layton needs only convince 676 voters. Revenge of the NDP for Martin's 2004 11th hour appeal?
15 01 06 Fabian B
I know that Emerson reportedly pressured Martin for the Liberal's reversal on the apology for the Chinese Head Tax. However, I doubt many of his Chinese constituents will be impressed by his efforts since it came much much too late and smacks of opportunism. Also, Martin let Raymond Chan totally mishandle the headtax file by initially promising 2.5 million on compensation(with no apology) to a separate Chinese group that DIDN'T ASK for the apology. This just enraged members of the Chinese community. I predict there will be plenty of Chinese voter defections to Kanman Wong and a few to Ian Waddell since both the Conservatives and NDP promised to apologise for the Head Tax BEFORE the election. In contrast, Martin ignored the issue and kept refusing any apology for 18 months while in government. His deathbed conversion won't help Emerson much in a riding which is about 40% Chinese. Result: Waddell should win Vancouver Kingsway as the Liberal vote plummets as long as he can get his supporters out to the polls.
15 01 06 Rav
Last election the liberals won by 1%! the liberal lost the provincial seats in this riding. The liberal's support is declining and the voters who voted for the liberals are changing their vote to the conservatives or the ndp. The ndp only needed 1% more vote to win last time; this time the liberals have lost a lot of votes. these votes will increase the conservatives support and give waddell the victory
08 01 06
This is going to go to Waddell, thanks to Wong.
Wong, who has a slim chance of winning, but likely will not win, just handed this to Waddell. Wong has been running a very strong campaign. The houses with his signs in this riding outnumber the signs of both Waddell and Emerson 2 to 1.5. That's says a lot about this demographic switch. In 2004, I saw very few Johl signs, but the recent sprouting of Wong signs is promising the the CPC indeed as I even see quite a few Wong signs in the BC NDP riding of Vancouver-Kensington. However, taking from the fact that Johl only managed to get around 7000-8000 votes last time, it'll be hard for him to take this. Combined with the boiled dog head's smile comment, Emerson has lost a lot of votes here. Hand this over to Waddell.
07 01 06 bas
The Liberal strategy of launching the sign war (and remember, there are no signs allowed on public land in Vancouver!) right after New Year's has been effective. On the other hand, I suspect for these to go up so fast many of them were committed in December and 'held onto'. Certainly Emerson signs are prominent on major thoroughfares - helping his profile in the TV ads - but side streets suggest a lot of Waddell support. Couple that with the kerfluffle (a little overstated in my opinion) over dog that Emerson found himself ballooned into, and a rising Conservative tide, and I call this one a squeaker for Waddell.
05 01 06 AL
This riding will either swing NDP or Liberal, very close to call. The Conservatives will not win, but will make a difference in this riding. Unlike last election, the Conservatives have a Chinese candidate to lure votes away from both Emerson and Waddell. Historically speaking, Chinese voters tend to swing on the Liberal side. If my prediction (Conservative magnet) is true, this will cost Emerson some votes and perhaps his seat. Ethnic voting is quite relavant in Vancouver. Sam Sullivan's victory in the Civic Election was primarily due to support from the Chinese community. Like last election, the difference between Waddell and Emerson will be very small. Waddell strongly relies on unionized, middle and lower class families in this riding. Emerson just relies on the average Chinese family. His previous comments about the boiled dog did hurt him to some extent. A very close call, but I predict Waddell's victory.
04 01 06 Fabian B
The race here is between Ian Waddell of the NDP and David Emerson of the Liberals. There is no chance of a Conservative win here--they are too far behind in Vancouver. Waddel may have an edge because he rely on support from popular local Vanc. Kingsway NDP MLA MLA Adrian Dix. Emerson's 'boiled dog' comments on Layton's looks and the controversy it generated in the National media really hurt his chances to win the riding--and his image. Even many pro-Liberal Chinese voters don't like the use of their language in Canadian politics and may be tempted to stay home come January 23. I think it will be a cliffhanger with a close NDP win this time unless Martin can boost his electoral fortunes in the next 3 weeks.
03 01 06 my two cents
With respect, Wong is NOT a contender in this riding. Nor is any Conservative is any of the 5 Vancouver ridings. In fact, with the exception of Vancouver-Quadra, just finishing second should be considered a real accomplishment. Of course, the Conservaties will not finish second here. Sure, Wong is Chinese, but Emerson's wife is Chinese and Waddell is no stranger to that community either. East Van is less affluent and (not coincidentally) less conservative than the rest of the city. The Emerson vs. Waddell rematch will be fun to watch though. Emerson is now a high-profile minister, who's been in the news a lot for talking tough on softwood lumber. Waddell is remembered as an MLA and MP who served his constituents well. This race may not be as well-documented as the Clash of the Titans in Vancouver Centre, but it will likely be just as close. In a riding with a tradtion of low voter turn-out, it really will come down to which candidate gets their vote out.
31 12 05 Jason Ng
Kanman is certainly a contender and the coverage he's been getting from both the mainstream and ethnic media indicates that. I'm working on his campaign and we've covered several areas in the riding in terms of lawn signs; the campaign is really picking up steam. I would like to ask the poster below where he/she resides, I'm sure we'll get that area covered soon as well.
As for the race itself, it's too close to call for any party right now, the Liberals are almost certain to lose votes to the Conservatives and I have no idea how the NDP will do this time around. All I can say is it's shaping up to be an interesting three-way race.
31 12 05 M. Lunn
Kanman Wong doesn't have a chance at winning here. Yes he is a moderate candidate and he is Chinese, but Chinese people don't just vote for someone because of their ethnicity. The Chinese vote is generally centre-right so if the Tories moderated a bit, they probably would do well amongst the Chinese, but too many in the Chinese community still remember the Reform's racist past and won't go Conservative until they shed their Reform Party baggage. Secondly even if the Chinese community did go heavily Conservative, the non-Chinese community is very left-leaning so he would still lose. Last provincial election, the Chinese community went heavily for Patrick Wong and Rob Niijjar and guess what, they both lost their seats.
This will be a horse race between Emerson and Waddell with Emerson having the edge simply because of his high profile cabinet post, although if Liberal support does start to take a plunge in BC, then Waddell could win here.
31 12 05 Avid Watcher
On the signage
Actually the signage on 41st from Cambie St to Earles St were actually free signs that they just gave out (one of my friends is helping on his campaign) I'm not sure if the people know they don't actually have to display them. Despite that I doubt the conservative candidate Kanman Wong will get more than 15%. Its a liberal vs ndp race here with the Liberals holding on to this seat
01 01 06 John
Liberals won last few elections because of their Chinese connections. Former M.P. was a Chinese and David Emerson's wife is a Chinese. But Kanman Wong will take away a good part of Chinese voters by capitalizing public anger over Liberals. East Indian votes will be divided between Liberals and NDP. Moreover Kanman is a likeable guy. Liberals are not winning this riding. So the fight will be between Conservatives and N.D.P.
29 12 05
Living close to the heartland of Vancouver, I haven't seen one Kanman Wong sign. Let's face it, this is not worth a Conservative dream. Instead I see some Liberal and NDP signs dotted around here and there. However, as I drive towards Burnaby I see 15 Kanman Wong signs on 15 different properties consecutively (this is around 41st). Although signs don't tell much, this is an indication that Kanman Wong is strong in this portion of the riding and can be a contender. Besides, he is one of the only Chinese candidates in a riding heavily populated by the Chinese. He'd have a bigger hope of being elected in Richmond, but face it, Kanman is a contender. Don't count him out.
25 12 05
This riding should be changed from "Too close" to Liberal win. Emerson is going to win. His tough talk on softwood lumber and the recent Federal government monies going to BC megaprojects have won over a lot of British Columbians including those in this riding. This riding consists of a lot of blue collar, prosperous tradespeople who wish the status quo hot economy to continue who will support the Liberal party. There also is a significant portion of high income, wealthy people in the Western part of the riding that will vote liberal. The NDP is not really in the running as the riding is doing too well economically right now.
21 12 05
I don't see why Emerson wouldn't be re-elected. He is the most high profile, senior B.C. MP, member of the cabinet and the senior B.C. minister. He has delivered on the Tourism Office, support for the lumber industry from Ottawa and the Prince Rupert Port. Why would he not be re-elected?? This is not one of the borderline liberal seats. Especially with the liberals trending higher. The latest Pollara poll has indicated in B.C. the Liberals are preferred 2-1 to the CPC and 2-1 to the NDP now!
19 12 05 BLJ
Prior to the '04 election, the Liberals (39%) were head of the NDP (37%) by a margin of 2% in the City of Vancouver proper (Mustel Group - June/04). The Dec/ 05 Ipsos Reid poll (with its large sample size) puts the Liberals (39%) ahead of the NDP (31%) by a larger margin of 6 points in the City of Vancouver.
While Emerson was a newcomer in '04, he now has incumbency and has also been BC's highest profile federal minister and appears to have been influential in federal infrastructure, trade, and transportation investment in metro Vancouver.
With these facts, I just can't see Emerson losing his seat.
18 12 05 Darcy McGee
you've got a weak conservative candidate and - by my read - less voter anger moving votes in this direction. Emerson is Gomery clean (he wasn't even a party member at the time) and if you think the Liberals are going to let the senior minister for BC go down, you've got another think coming.
14 12 05 Cappy
This will definitely go Liberal. Hatman may want to reference all of Kingsway's history. The original Vancouver Kingsway riding was held by Liberal Simma Holt from 1974 to 1979. The portion of Vancouver Quadra (MacQuinney)that makes up the majority of the current Vancouver Kingsway went strongly Liberal in 1993 as did the portions of Vancouver South (Herb Dhaliwal) and Vancouver East(Anna Terana) that are now a part of the current boundaries.It has gone Liberal under its new boundaries in 1997, 2000, 2002 and 2004.
David Emerson was fairly unknown to the residence of Kingsway in 2004 but has done a good job and should be rewarded with an increase in vote.
13 12 05 MF
It's hard to say what will happen in this working class, mostly Asian, semi-suburban riding? Certainly the Tories won't be a factor. The NDP will thus have to do better here than in the working class suburban ridings like Burnaby and New Westminster where all three parties do respectably. Ian Waddell almost took it last time and the numbers are up for the NDP in BC this time. The problem is Waddell may not have the appeal that he used to, as many of the voters here either didn't live here or couldn't vote during his days in power. And Emerson is a cabinet minister. Furthermore, judging from the municipal results, to the extent that they're helpful don't paint a rosy picture for Waddell either as Sam Sullivan won this area.
08 12 05 love, sydney
As tough as it is for Liberals out west, their record in BC is very solid and may actually gain votes in the urban ridings like this one. Emerson was one of the successful star candidates and he quickly proved his mettle with a good performance as minister. He is no John Mccallum. While I'm not so sure there are gains to be had in BC for the Grits, I've heard nothing but positives about Emerson's work around the constituency - but I do not live there. My prediction is he widens the margin by another 1,500-2000 votes. Waddell, though a worth rival, will have a hard time proving he isn't another retired politico trying to relive the past.
06 12 05 completely baffled
a lot of people giving tips seem to greatly emphasize the chinese community. i think a lot of these people must not know any chinese-canadians, who have voted for non-chinese candidates in the past. chinese-speaking pundits speak for their parties in the chinese-language press, so it's not like a chinese-speaking candidate makes all the difference in the world. immigrants dont just flock to support one another (some exceptions are made for individuals who gave a lot to their communities, but that isn't entirely based on skin colour).
there seems to be a lot of speculation (er, racist paranoia) about asians invading the polls in a lot of the vancouver ridings, as well as richmond. news flash: MOST PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN VANCOUVER ARE WHITE. :)
15 11 05 watcher
Let's not forget that during 2000 this riding witnessed a battle royale of a full slate of Chinese Canadian politicians from all four (Alliance and PC haven't merged back then) major parties. Now that Kanman Wong is the only bilingual Chinese Canadian candidate from any of the major parties in the race in Vancouver-Kingsway (and he also ran here in 2000 as a Progressive Conservative, so there's some name recognition there of his moderate background), he stands to gain.
So why is this an NDP prediction? Polls show that Conservative strength has not quite recovered to Alliance + PC levels in 2000, so while I believe that Wong will gain, it won't be enough to win this riding. However, Wong's gains will most likely be achieved at the expense of the Liberals rather than the NDP. So it's likely that the NDP will creep up to first place, assuming that polls remain the same, which is a rather significant assumption. Polls can change, but I don't know how they will change, so to stick with the present, my tentative prediction is NDP.
15 06 05 hatman
While Vancouver Kingsway has been traditionally a Liberal riding, it looks as though they are on the verge of losing it. Emerson won by less than 2,000 votes, a number that can easily be made up by the NDP. Plus, the Liberal tradition does not go back that far, as the NDP held this riding in the early 80's.
01 06 05 M. Lunn
Even though the NDP did well here provincially, the provincial liberals are to the right of the federal liberals so some federal liberals go NDP provincially, at the same time some provincial liberals, albeit a very small percentage in this riding, while go Conservative federally. If the NDP gets 10% less than they did provincially that would put them at 40% while if the liberals pick up 10% from the provincial NDP, but lose 10% from the provincial liberals to the Conservatives, that would also put them at 40%. That being said, I think the liberals have the edge simply because David Emerson is a cabinet minister and people in BC are tired of being ignored and would like someone who can bring more money to BC.
26 05 05 Mike D
Its way too early to call this one. Emerson has not had the chance to establish himself and he has been rather low-profile considering his position. If Waddell runs again it will be another tight race.
22 05 05 Jason
If an election is called, both NDP and Liberal voters will be fed up with Stephen Harper. Even some Conservative voters will likely not support their Conservative candidate due to the new election. Taking all this into consideration, and taking that in 2000, Liberal Sophia Leung, and in 2004, Liberal David Emerson both won this riding, this will be a Liberal win once more. Besides, in 2004 David Emerson won by about 1200 votes because he wasn't as known, but now because he was elected last time, people know who he is, boosting up his votes.
16 05 05
I live in this riding, I wouldn't say Emerson is un-popular, but he's defenetly not popular either. Interestingly enough Ujjal Dosanjh, one riding South, has gained a higher profile from the Health portfolio than Emerson has with the Industry portfolio...even though Emerson is the "senior minister" from BC (not withstanding the fact that Minister Stephen Owen, from Vancouver-Quadra actually has more elected experience!). If the Liberals can run a good possum campaign, like they did last time, and trick Green and NDP supporters to move to the Liberals to "stop the Conservatives", even though the Conservatives have NO shot in this riding, it stands to reason that Emerson will be re-elected. But with the sponsership dragging the Liberals down, it stands to reason that the NDP can elect someone. It would be unwise to predict it for either of them without watching the campaign develop, and without actually seeing who the NDP nominates as a candidate...nonethless the riding should be close.
Besides Emerson has been a minister for less than a Year, he hasn't had the time to establish a profile worthy of the wide characterization of "popular". He was originally recruited because the Liberals, before the Sponsorship revelations, expected to romp to an easy majority under Martin...and since he's a right-leaning Liberal he would be a natural ally for Martin. With the Sponsorship revelations all of Martin's plans were ruined, and political realities (CPC deciding not to support the Budget) have since forced Martin to run from a more left-wing position, if some of the right-leaning Liberals are unimpressed and move to the Conservatives, that in itself could trigger Emerson's defeat.
08 05 05 Ben
The NDP will lose votes in this riding in the next election. Emerson is very popular in the riding - a sure Liberal win. Emerson holds a very high profile and has delivered a lot for BC. He has become very well known and respected.
05 05 05 BrianJA
This one is kind of tricky. A riding that has been held by both NDP and Liberal in the past, Vancouver-Kingsway has a Minister for an MP, although not an extremely high-profile one. The NDP will likely pick it up, if Waddell runs again. If someone else, like Mary Woo Sims runs and wins the NDP nomination, it'll be a toughie. Either way, though, my gut says that, with the Liberal vote down across the nation, the NDP will slide in and grab this one. My prediction: NDP pick-up by 500 votes or less.
04 05 05 BLJ
David Emerson is the incumbent as well as a high-profile and influential cabinet minister who has delivered some federal largesse to the province.
The April 30/05 federal results for B.C. in the Ekos poll showed the Liberals leading at 43%, albeit with a high margin of error, confirming for the moment at least there is no Liberal meltdown in B.C.
He will likely win the seat by the same or slighlty higher majority than last time around over the NDP.
03 05 05
I wouldn't quite put this into the NDP column just yet. But putting it into the Liberal column at this time would be extremely dumb. It's true that Martin's scare tactics helped Emerson, and the fellow barely won last time. The fact that he's now Industry Minister could be an asset to him. But one can't ignore the Sponsership scandal. And should only one or two percent of the vote bleed from Emerson to the NDP candidate and then another one or two percent from Emerson to the guranteed to be a distant third Conservative candidate then an NDP victory is a gurantee. Just look at the numbers at best for the Liberals it's too close to call, at worst it's an NDP pick up.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
Considering the NDP only finished three points behind the liberals, it is way too early to call this one for the liberals. The Conservatives definitely won't win this one, but until we got closer to the election I think this one is too close to call. Unlike Vancouver South and Vancouver-Quadra, which have many high-end homes who will never vote NDP, but are university educated, so they don't support Stephen Harper's hardline Conservatism, this is a working class area with many potential NDP supporters.
02 05 05
Waddell would probably have beaten Emerson last time, if not for Martin's last-minute scare tactics about the Conservatives driving NDP voters to the Liberals. The Conservatives ran a rather distant third. In this east-side riding, I see discontent with the Libs shifting votes to the NDP, not to the Conservatives. Put this one in the NDP column.



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