Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Calgary Southwest

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:19:00

Constituency Profile


Christie, Kelly

Harper, Stephen J

Heather, Larry R.

Heffernan, Holly

Lamontagne, Marlene

Rt. Hon Stephen J. Harper

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • calgary-southwest (197/217 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 02 binriso
    Even though he wont shut up about the so-called coalition every rally, it would be a surpise to see anything less than a 30000 vote margin here for the PM, and that would likely be due to low voter turnout rather than any other party gaining votes.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    This may be the prime-minister's riding, but either way it is a solid Tory riding. Even if the Tories got reduced to only 10 seats, they would probably still hold this one.
    11 03 29 WAC
    I found the comment: ‘This is Stephen Harper's race to lose’ hiliarious for some reason. Stephen Harper couldn't lose this race even if he insisted on campaigning wearing a Canucks jersey or an Oilers jersey and not wearing any pants or if he promised to salt the earth at Canyon Meadows so nothing would ever grow again.
    11 03 28 John
    I agree with the other two posters. This race is Stephen Harper's to lose.
    If the polls are any indication, barring some major misteps or other developments, the Conservatives will win and likely form the next government. It's just a question of whether they get another minority, or a majority. Either way, the riding gets the sitting Prime Minister again.
    This riding will stay Conservative.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. There is no perfect storm in sight to move any Calgary riding away from the “solidly Conservative column any time soon.
    09 08 18 Nick J Boragina
    Sitting Prime Ministers do not often lose their seats. Especially not one that has voted so strongly for them and their party in the past. Harper/Tory hold.

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