2:18 PM 01/12/2005

Prediction Changed
12:45 AM 02/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Calgary Southwest
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Stephen J. Harper
Christian Heritage
Larry R. Heather
Holly Heffernan
Mike Swanson
Kim Warnke

Hon. Stephen Harper

2004 Result:
Stephen J. Harper
Avalon Roberts
Darcy Kraus
Daria Fox
Mark de Pelham
Larry R. Heather

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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29 11 05 Alberta PC
For anyone to believe that the Conservative supporters in Calgary Southwest will stay home because they're unhappy with the timing of the election is beyond absurd. The only timing they're disappointed in is that the election didn't take place last spring. Harper will surpass his 2004 numbers.
28 11 05 Happeningfish
Okay Harper will win, no doubt but the numbers flying around are just dumb.
Liberals will get closer to 20% this time. Yes Liberal numbers will go up.
Alberta Grit you are just plain wrong and I am very sure that you have never actually campaigned in this area if you do indeed live here.
Harper has zero personal appeal.
The Liberals have a very strong candidate.
Conservative support will be staying home because they will not be highly motivated due to the timing of the election.
Bad weather and Harper will really see his support drop.
Yeah the green had some strength but it is round two for the NDP candidate and she will do better as well. I imagine green support will just drop all over Canada as the protest they got last time just stays home.
16 07 05 hatman
This is the traditional leaders seat, having Preston Manning and Stephen Harper as MP's. Without these two men, perhaps the Liberal vote would be higher, but never close enough to win. And with Harper as the Conservative candidate, they should have no troubles winning again.
02 06 05 Alberta Grit
C'mon folks! This riding is so right the right leaning GREEN candidate won more votes than the NDP! And the NDP's a legitimate party! Harper’s going to win by over 3,000 votes this time for certain. All right, I live in this riding and I can't even campaign for the Grits without signing a health waver! The only way Harper would loose here is if Preston Manning ran as in Independent. The Liberal’s votes will collapse to the Greens, because all the local media is portraying the Liberals-NDP as “evil, corrupt, uncaring, pro-Quebec, anti-west” yada, yadi, yada. What will be interesting is watching the green votes in the city. Most easterners don’t realize this, but if the Greens ran strong enough social conservative, eco-capitalist, ex-hippie candidates here, then they might be able to get in second place throughout the city. Calgary is the bastion of green support in Alberta (look at the 2004 provincial elections. The leader of the Green Party of Alberta is a Calgarian) and many folks in this riding think of them as better party than the NDP, or even the Grits.
My prediction: Harper: 75%, Green 12%, LPC 7%, NDP 5%
28 05 05 punditman
What I'd like to know is why other candidates even bother running here??? Harper won by approx. 24,000 votes last time. Also, this has to be the most Conservative riding in the country. Let's not forget that this was Preston Manning's riding until 2002. Hell would freeze over and the devil would give out free sleigh rides before anyone but the Conservatives took this seat.
10 05 05 Nick Boragina
This is the seat of a possible Prime Minister, and people with that kind of potential dont "just lose" unless there's a good reason for them too. Harper has impressed many in the past year and a half since the merger. Many said he was too biased towards the Alliance to become Leader, but I had not heard any mention of that in a year or more, he's been able to bring the party togethor, talk of a PC-CA division are dead, though a west-east division seems more popular a discussion. Harper's the first "Alliance Type" to have a shot at the PMO. Albertans love the dude, he's their political hero, and you dont reward hero's by taking away their powers, nor do you reward a good politican by taking away their seats. Harper will win again in this riding with a majority, the question becomes can he win a majoirty of ridings.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
The interesting race will be which of the four leaders nationally wins with the highest percentage. I would say the race is between Gilles Duceppe and Stephen Harper who will certainly each get above 60% and probably both break the 70% this time around. Paul Martin will likely do worse than Jack Layton in his riding since liberal support taken the biggest fall in Quebec of all the provinces. This riding is a no brainer, Stephen Harper will win again big time.
26 04 05 JFB
Avec 68% des voix lors de la dernière élection, en plein bastion du Parti Conservateur, Stephen Harper passera cette fois-ci la barre des 70%. Balayage conservateur en Alberta.

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