Election Prediction Project
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Calgary Southwest

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
1:14 PM 6/18/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:52 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Parti Marijuana Party:
Mark de Pelham
Daria Fox
Stephen Harper
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Larry Heather
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Darcy Kraus
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Avalon Roberts

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Calgary Southwest (100.0%)
Stephen Harper

2000 Result/Résultats:
31,756 64.96%
7,936 16.23%
7,290 14.91%
1,901 3.89%
0 0.00%

Calgary Southwest
(197/217 polls, 78576/84629 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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16/06/04 Why do we even bother?
Email: [hidden]
Why do we even bother predicting this seat? or for that matter West Island of Montreal or some part of Toronto were the Liberal poll at about 80% (see: St-Leonard, Ahustic ridings) - but people like to put in their two cents and seem themselves in writing on the web. I think this riding will go to the Right-Wing Wolf in Moderate-Centrist Sheep Clothing. Of Course it will - and it will by an enormous margin. Here is my problem, my dilema, my reasoning for posting. Why are people saying that he will get 85% of the vote based on that was the combined PC + Alliance votes. Now I'm a good ol' Alberta boy born and raised - so here are my thoughts on why that logic is flawed. The people who were voting PC will NOT automatically vote Regressive Conservative. Because the majority of the PC votes in Alberta were protest votes, why not just vote Alliance last time considering outside of Joe Clark in Calgary-Center, no PC person stood a chance. Protest vote - who will they vote for this time. Well likely not the same Alliance people, most likely Liberal or not at all. I've talked to a few (maybe 10) people who voted PC last election based on Joe CLark as a national leader or a likeable local candiate. NONE are voting Conservative this election - many would rather vote liberal.
Granted Stephen Harper is going to poll phenomenal well in Calgary he might even get 85% of the votes but not because those PC's bought Conservative membership are on board - but because the opposition (which i can tell you is higher than 15%-20%) just doesn't bother - and I ask you? would you? those PC voters, Liberals, NDP, Green and Marijuana Party voters are staying home and making use of their precious time. And this is why is it time in Canada for Proportional Representation and an end to Rural Over-Representation. If you want to know why the voter turnout is 50% in Alberta - thats why.
15/06/04 Pat P
Email: [hidden]
Just a note... with Harper so overwhelmingly a lock to win, I have hear rumblings that many left wing voters are considering strategic voting practices. That could mean a surprisingly high vote for the NDP or perhaps the Greens. Not anywhere close enough to win, but certainly an effort to provide that $1.75 funding to the losing party.
09/06/04 DTC
Email: [hidden]
The question isn't if Harper will win his seat. The question is will he be more like Stanfield, Clark or, his mentor this election, Brian Mulroney.
05/06/04 Alex
Email: [hidden]
Actually, you're forgetting about the merger - the combined broke 81% last time. I'm guessing 80-85% Harper here now that he's the leader, this will be the biggest win in any riding in the country, probably by a good margin.
Email: [hidden]
Dear Mr. Fish,
Um, you should check your math because even by your highest Liberal estimate, Harper will come out with a total never seen by Manning:
2004--69-74% (as predicted by Fish)
Re-work your numbers, and call me in the morning.
04/05/04 Happeningfish
Email: [hidden]
Sure Stephen Harper will win and easily.
But the Liberals have a very strong candidate who is the former head of Freinds of Medicare.
Harper himself is very unpopular in the riding on a personal basis and I think he will find his vote total nowhere near the totals that Manning recieved in the riding. Look for Liberal 15 - 20%. NDP 7% Green 4% Balance to Harper
24/04/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Interesting to think that, percentagewise, Harper might fare better against a "full" opposition than he did in the byelection where his opposition was, aside from a maverick NDP candidate, nominal...
19/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
Stephen Harper didn't even have to campaign here for the Conservative Leadership as he only stopped back in town to pick up his acclaimed nomination. As a constituent and former PCer, I think that he'll easily get 75-80% in this riding.
11/04/04 full name
Former seat of Preston Mannong, seat of the opposition leader and maybe next prime minister. The questions shoulndt be asked, a easy big win for Stephen.
22/03/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
Stephen Harper could have gotten trampled at the Conservative leadership convention and still would have easily won Calgary Southwest. The only thing different now is that Harper is the Conservative leader -- everything else is the same, Harper will easily win here.
17/03/04 Craig
For a suburban riding, this is as safe as it gets in all of Canada for the Conservatives. Stephen Harper should roll over the field here as if this seat was virtually acclaimed. No one else will be in sight. Predicted results: Conservative 77%, NDP 9%, Liberal 8%, others 6%.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Hoe could Steven harper possibly loose? Most likely going to be the new Conservative party leader and sitting in a Calgary riding. Very safe bet here.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: gabbyjuk@yahoo.ca
Stephen Harper's riding should be as safe for him as it was for Manning. The PCs were a distant second here in 2000. Not a difficult call to make.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Stephen Harper becoming Prime Minister? That's a possibility - Stephen Harper becoming MP from Calgary Southwest? That's a certainty
17/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
This is Stephen Harper's seat. That's about all the information one has to provide to explain this prediction.
16/03/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
There isn't a whole lot to say here. Harper has Calgary-Southwest locked up. The man is practically a saint in Canada's most conservative city in its most conservative province.

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