Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-23 21:35:00

Constituency Profile


Cooke, Jean-Luc

Dagenais, Ric

Keon, Ryan

Poilievre, Pierre

Pierre Poilievre

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • nepean-carleton (168/207 Polls)
  • ottawa-orleans (12/207 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 27
    This riding had the highest advance poll turnout of any riding in the country which may indicate it a time for change.
    11 04 26 John
    The current situation in the riding with the number of signs for CPC looks to have Pierre in the lead. That said, the strategic voter will be voting for the Liberal candidate as the NPC candidate is not a valid choice to unseat Pierre and the strategic voter will be looking for anyone put Pierre Poilievre given his behavior in the house and in the comities since the last election. That said, I believe that this riding in one that the CPC will be completely surprised and unprepared to lose.
    11 04 25 Vulcan's Forge
    I don't think the CPC or Pierre Poilievre should be counting on winning this seat. Yes, he had a 56% vote share and a massive lead in the 2008 election. This isn't 2008. In the last election campaign the Liberal candidate was a no-show; that isn't the case this time around. I'm not willing to say he's going to lose the seat, but I don't think it's anywhere near as safe as the mainstream media, the pundits, or most other people on this site seem to think it is.
    11 04 24 R.O.
    I could come up with a dozen reasons why this seat stay conservative but i'm not going to list them. Pierre Poilievre should easily hold this seat with Ryan Keon coming in second due to weakness of ndp and greens in riding . anyways we haven't seen much of Pierre this election at national level he must be too busy canvassing the riding . Nepean Carleton becoming most tory friendly seat in Ottawa but it likely get redistributed due to massive suburban growth in Barrhaven part of riding at some point in future.
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    If any of those things mentioned by Rob mattered then Polivier would never have gotten such high margins. No CPC has this locked.
    11 04 15 Rob
    SEVEN factors make this riding undecided. 1. Rick Mercer has been making fun of Pierre Poilievre's mistakes for two years; 2. Nortel Pensioners are targeting to unseat Pierre. MANY Nortel ex-employees live in this riding; 3. Billions of Dollars in announced Govt Cutbacks by Conservatives. This always means Job Cuts. When Mulroney declared war on Public Servants, the entire city went Red. 4.Best Liberal Party Candidate since David Pratt. A Blue-Liberal(like Pratt) Ryan Keon has been ‘campaigning’ door-to-door since last summer. Married with two young children he mirrors a large portion of the electorate. Born and raised in the area, his father Wilber Keon is well known and respected. 5.Vandalism and systematic theft of Keon signs may cause sympathy. 6. Youth factor could shape up to be a Wild Card. 7. Unknown NDP candidate means more strategic voting.
    11 04 03 Daver
    Recent news of vandalism on the Liberal signs, cross-hairs painted on his face, may have an effect. Obviously some people are worried that people will vote Liberal.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Pierre Polievere may come across as in immature brat, but the reality is this is one of the safest Tory ridings in Ontario, probably in the top 5 safest so as long as you have a united right its pretty much a lock regardless of who they run.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    No doubt that Poilievre has made his share of enemies, but they don't appear to live in Nepean-Carleton. 56% and a 32-point margin speak for themselves, after all. Even David Pratt doesn't stand a chance against him any more.
    10 09 28 Ottawa Insider
    Despite the fact, that Ryan Keon will be the toughest candidate Pierre has to face since Pratt, Pierre will smoke him. This is the same Ryan Keon whose father was a Conservative Senator. Sources tell me that the conservative party has a Ryan Keon's old conservative party membership from last year that they will foist out when the election starts to illustrate that the guy is nothing more than an opportunist.
    Just another candidate of convenience. He has no presence in the riding and he will have no shot of overturning Poilievre's 23,000 vote plurality.
    10 01 10 A.S.
    If all Nepean-Carletonesque seats in Ontario operated like Nepean-Carleton, Harper would be in heaven...especially as the population/redistribution ball is in the court of such seats. At this point, the only real way for Pierre P. to be dislodged is if he voluntarily relinquishes his seat on behalf of a defeated John Baird. (Well, technically, Baird's more vulnerable than Poilievre, so don't panic, partisans.)
    09 09 02 VinTrin
    Poilievre's got this. He definitely IS a constituency MP, going to tons of events all the time, canvassing in and out of election seasons (Yes, they can do that) and all around being great for outreach.
    I happen to like those little survey mailers, Pierre even remembered a comment I had made on one when I ran into him! (He had probably just read it earlier, but still, it is nice to see he actually reads his mail)
    09 08 29 Insider
    There are good Conservative MP's, but as a constituent I can easily say this is not one of them. As a resident N-P doesn't seem like the type of riding that would be a Conservative stronghold but that's what it has become. Easy hold.
    To remark on another post, aside from an abundance of mindless political survey mail it's not clear how Poilievre got such a reputation as a constituency MP (which he does have). I've never seen him, been invited to an event where he is listed as attending or even read about an event he attended. This in a city where it's easy to run into politicians and hosted event invites are common from all color of MP's.
    09 08 23 NorthernRaven
    Harper's Parliament Secretary, Pierre Poilievre, though sometimes a little rough in his opinions will take Nepean-Carleton handily. Winning 52% of the vote verses the Liberal opponent at 23%, and in 2004 he unseated Minister of Defence David Pratt. One of the most constituently active MP's in the House, known that he would come to the opening of an envelope if invited.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster