Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:42 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:02 AM 6/27/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Phil Brown
Pierre Poilievre
Parti Marijuana Party:
Brad Powers
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
David Pratt
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Chris Walker

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Nepean-Carleton (94.0%)
Hon. David Pratt
Ottawa-Orléans (6.0%)
Eugène Bellemare

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,260 42.26%
18,191 36.16%
7,966 15.84%
1,930 3.84%
959 1.91%

(168/207 polls, 71689/87883 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(12/207 polls, 4582/77455 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Nepean-Carleton lets Conservative Pierre Poilievre get away with this one because Martinite Liberal David Pratt was too hawk on Iraq.
23/06/04 Robert
Email: [hidden]
Well I thought the Conservatives would win. It was inspite of their choice of candidate. However I believe the full colour image of him I found in my mail today was a mis-step.
I am an election's junky. But most people don't pay attention to the issues. They don't even read the flyers. They make quick decisions on what they see. My family's impression of that huge image of the Conservative Pierre was "Wow he's young." My wife asked if he still in high school!
It is sad to say, and it is age discrimination of sorts but the fact remains, a riding packed full of families they want to see themselves in their MP. They want to see a local guy or gal who knows what it is like to take care for a sick child all night and go to work the next day. Mr Pratt fits that description.
On the "punish the Liberals" movement, I think it is being countered by the "Conservatives will cut jobs in Ottawa" fear. Anger versus fear. Will Pierre fight for the jobs of his constitutents or defend party doctrine? Would you if you an Albertan who has lived here a year with your girlfriend and worshipped your party like a religion? Pink-slip Pierre is the fear and his challenge is making people feel safe. Pratt will win in a very close one.
16/06/04 DFG
Email: [hidden]
I saw an all candidates meeting on the 15th. It was a very partisan crowd and I don't think too many undecideds were in the room, but I might be counted as one of them since I will be voting Green. I'll give my impression of the candidates. The conservative candidate was a young(24) but polished public speaker. He is a place man, knows his party platform, worked in the back rooms for the alliance. He is very similar to John Baird, but perhaps an even better politico novice than John was.
David Pratt the liberal incumbent gave a fine performance and as a known quantity did not have too much to gain from the meeting. Being busy as defense minister he may have been caught a little flat footed in this race. The conservative candidate was out knocking on doors even before the election was called and the conservatives got an early jump in the lawn sign war in my neighbourhood.
The NDP candidate had the most passion in the meeting, and he made the most favorable impression of the three there. Unfortunately he doesn't have a real hope in this riding being a rural/suburban riding, with a conservative bent.
It is close I guess it comes down to if the conservatives can keep their momentum. Right now I'd give it to the conservatives in this riding.
16/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
Well, I've been through Nepean-Carleton regularly over the past few weeks, and if there's anyone supporting David Pratt, they sure are quiet about it. In some parts of the riding, I didn't even see Pratt signs on public property - just Conservative and Green signs. Unless there's a huge move back to the Liberals at the last minute, this race is over.
16/06/04 RWR
Email: [hidden]
I am going to preface my remarks by saying that I am a Conservative and that it pains me to make this prediction. However, Nepean-Carleton loves its cabinet ministers. John Baird was re-elected in a Liberal sweep. Some have pointed to the sign war as an indication that Mr. Pratt will lose. For those of us that have been observers of Nepean-Carleton for a long time, David Pratt has never, at any time in his elected career, won the sign war, and yet, he has never lost an election. Finally, as someone that has run campaigns in Nepean-Carleton, while the other parts of the riding may vote Conservative, Nepean-South doesn't vote on party line. They vote for the local boy. Especially a local boy that has made it to cabinet. If the Conservatives wish to win this riding, they need to nominate someone with deep roots in Nepean-South. They will continue to win the outer parts of the riding and they will be competitive in Nepean-South. It will also be easier when Mr. Pratt is no longer a cabinet member as seems likely on June 29th. Also, too much attention is being given to 2000. Note that Mr. Pratt won over 50% of the vote in his first election in 1997 and this was with two much stronger strong opponents in Paul Fitzgerald (Reform) and Betty Hill (city councilor, P.C.). This riding is not as Conservative as many seem to make it. Follow Nepean-South. That's where the votes are.
16/06/04 Anshu Prasad
Email: anshuprasad@yahoo.com
Ottawa Citizen reports the following, based on analysis and research conducted by John Samuel of Carleton University:
"In Nepean-Carleton, Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre is set to win the the riding of Liberal incumbent David Pratt, the defence minister, by 9,000 votes."
15/06/04 Manotick Matt
Email: [hidden]
I don't understand how elections prediction can still say that Nepean Carleton is "too close to call." Clearly by any unbiased look around here the Conservative candidate will easily sweep David Pratt aside on June 28th.
Last nights debate was clearly won with a solid right hook from the Conservative candidate when asked whether there is a signed and sealed contract on the O-Train in Nepean-Carleton and Mr Pratt refused to answer. His single issue has backfired on him. Does Pratt want to be MP or Mayor of Nepean-Carleton?
Secondly Mr. Pratt refuses to mention which party he's running for and his latest piece of Lit do not use the word Liberal at all. Is he ashamed of something? The people of Nepean Carleton will vote overwhelmingly Conservative on June 28th. I predict 58% of the vote to go to Pierre Poilievre
14/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
A vote projection in The Ottawa Citizen today said that this riding will be going Conservative by about 9,000 votes. Who knows how accurate the precise winning margin is, but since this riding almost went Conservative last time, is Conservative provincially, added to increased support for the Conservatives in Ontario, I would say it is accurate to predict it as Conservative.
13/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Comments about the number of lawn signs are misleading - our Liberal sign has been stolen once & another on our street has been tampered with on at least 3 occasions. I believe this is illegal - & hope it's not reflective of the suppression of differing opinions I fear characterized the former Alliance party - of whom I believe Mr. Poilievre was a proud employee. My main concern is that he seems to be a parachute candidate in this riding, which Mr. Pratt has represented well & diligently. A great number of federal public servants live in this riding - would funding of Conservative promises mean broad cuts to the public service?
12/06/04 Stevo
I've been holding out on this one but I'm confident in predicting a Conservative win here and frankly I don't think it will even be close. Poilievre should easily topple Cabinet minister David Pratt by 8-10 percentage points, perhaps more. Ontario (minus Metro Toronto) is going blue in a big way and the polls show no indication of this trend slowing down. Eastern Ontario represents the small-c conservative bedrock of the province, and I expect that every swing riding in the region will fall to the Tories.
10/06/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Local poll results (+/-4.87%, 19 out of 20)
Poilievre 38.2
Pratt 21.1
Green, NDP "about 5%" each
Undecided 25.9
08/06/04 Buhay
Email: [hidden]
Where are you driving by Danny boy? I'm in Barrhaven and for every one "Team Martin" sign I see about three Tory signs - and this isn't necessarily the Conservative bastion for the riding.
I think Pratt is in big trouble and he knows it. According to Pierre's campaign e-mails, they'r brimming with volunteers and support. On the other hand, I e-mailed Pratt's campaign about their events two weeks ago and heard nothing. Do they have volunteers to answer e-mails?
The signs, literally, don't look good for the Libs here.
07/06/04 DGH
Email: [hidden]
I think that you are mistaken about the views of DND employees, gjp, since I am one. I have yet to meet any in MY section that thinks the Liberals are better than pond scum. That is perhaps not surprising, given the treatment the department has received from the Liberals. I expect DND personnel to vote Conservative en masse.
I am still not sure which way I think this riding will go, but I am leaning toward the Conservatives, based on the lack of vote splitting and the suburban/rural demographics here. The highly subjective and informal lawn-sign-polling method suggests a Tory lead, with houses with Conservative lawn signs outnumbering those with Liberal ones between 4:3 and 3:2. (You can't count the big signs on street corners, anyone can put those there. Lawn signs require the permission of the land owner.)
03/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Thanks to Pratt's cabinet position and Poilievre's "greenness", there's possibility--at least on paper--of N-C bucking the trend and swinging to (or at least, not as dramatically away from) the Liberals, though it'd take a pretty heroic effort from the Pratt/Martin team to ensure that it's so. And Rusty Baird makes a useful template for not underestimating Poilievre, not only because of his own youth when first elected, but because even with high apparent "negatives" (at least, to outside observers), he still handily managed 2003's best Ontario PC result outside of Ernie Eves himself--and he's shone as an opposition critic as he's never done in cabinet. There's nothing like a young Tory boy-scout punk. (Oh, and re the surname pronunciation issue, an example closer at hand are all those Madawaska Poles whose names have been corrupted over time into ending with "skie" rather than "ski"...)
02/06/04 gjp
Email: [hidden]
This riding is going Red for a lot of reasons.

1) David Pratt and his family have been in this riding for a very long time. The Conservative Candidate is from Alberta and a former staffer on the Hill.
2)The riding is doing well financially and otherwise with all that new retail business in the area in the last years, it has the been growing in leaps and bounds.
3) Both are nice fellows but David has been around longer and has done some good work for the riding. BTW so has John Baird but John's not running for the spot.
4) Should DND locate in the JDS uniphase building and the O train really appear in the next years the property values are just going to soar.
5) Lots of PS servants and DND personnel in the area, choose change ? Nah, don't think so... Next time Pierre
01/06/04 Ryan
David Pratt had better find a new day job. This riding is overwhelmingly conservative and is going to be a new safe seat for the new party. Like all Liberals in the Ottawa area they have done a nice job in littering the public streets with their huge and somewhat illegal signs (Ottawa By-Law). Pratt has failed to connect with this community and he will pay for this on June 28th.
27/05/04 Eastern Ontario Values
Email: [hidden]
Some months ago, Nepeaners were surprised to learn that their no-name MP had suddenly became the Defence Minister. Not that it'll do him any good - Paul Martin has shown more interest in "Flat Mark" than defence issues. The combined Tory/Alliance vote is 8,000 votes ahead of the Pratt's vote in 2000, and John Baird won by over 10,000 votes - the second largest Conservative plurality in all Ontario. And the Sponsorship Scandal is tough to swallow for a lot of high-tech workers who are still out of work, and whose benefits are starting to run out. Even if the Liberals win 90 seats in Ontario, this won't be one of them.
26/05/04 Jeff
Email: [hidden]
Don't get too excited, Danny Boy. The Pratt team pulled in sign crews from many other ridings on the weekend in order to impress as Paul Martin was planned to go through the riding. Given that this is one of the few Ottawa areas that went PC in the recent Ontario election, I would not get overconfident due to the number of red signs 3 days in.
23/05/04 Danny Boy
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives started to put up their signs three days before the writ was dropped. I just drove through the riding on my way home from work and the number of Liberal signs already out is incredible. Large signs on public property, but more impressive, small signs on private lawns. If there was any doubt before, there shouldn't be anymore. It is obvious David Pratt has a better campaign team in place than the Liberals have ever had in this riding. Lock this one down for David Pratt and the Liberals.
21/05/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
Martin is doing his Ottawa campaign kick off in this riding on Sunday, rather than any of the other "tight" ridings in Ottawa. This can be a sign that this riding will be the focus for a lot of Liberal resources.
19/05/04 MOB
Email: [hidden]
Nepean Boy makes some interesting comments. I happened to go to high school with the Conservative candidate (in Calgary I might add) and he would always say his last name as 'Poi-lee-evre' (the way it's spelt). I also recall some rather unorthodox views such as his defining of democracy as majority rule but with no provision for respect for minority rights. His views may have evolved however.
19/05/04 Michael J. Cooper
Email: michaelcooper@shaw.ca
While Pierre Poilievre’s relatively low profile in the Nepean community has been belabored, it should be noted that the Canadian Alliance candidate in 2000 Mike Green was equally unknown locally. Green’s only claim to fame was serving as Jim Pankiw’s executive assistant on the Hill. Despite this he came within a whisker of defeating incumbent David Pratt.
Poilievre is a bright young candidate who is running a solid campaign. With popular MPP John Baird and his provincial Tory team actively supporting Poilievre, coupled with the fact that there will only be a single conservative on the ballot and the general decline in Liberal support in Ontario since February, it is safe to put Nepean-Carleton in the Tory column.
19/05/04 JGH
Email: [hidden]
With respect to Nepean Boy's pathetic attempt to smear the Tory candidate, Mr. Poilievre is from Alberta. Out West, francophone place names and surnames have over the course of the past century, taken on the pronunciation of the local idiom. Hence Delisle, Saskatchewan (De-lyle as opposed to Dey-leel), Leduc, Alberta (Leduke as opposed to Leduhk), the shortening the L on Qu'appelle. And hence Paw-liver.
Suggesting that this is some kind of effort to pander to anti-french bigotry in the riding reveals a profound ignorance of Western customs and language on your part, as well as a smug superiority all too typical of Liberal supporters.
Anyways, the riding is too close to call.
19/05/04 The Real Deal
Email: [hidden]
Dear Jockvale Junkie: How long have you been a junkie? You must be to attack Joe Varner and Lisa MacLeod. Your claim that Joe Varner garnered the fewest votes of any PC candidate in any riding in the Province is a lie of the greatest proportions. This is not even true for ridings in Ottawa. Now that you have been weighed, let's move to the judgement. Riverside South votes heavily Tory. Look at the past results. So, now that you have been judged to know nothing about politics, let's move onto the sentencing...shall we? When providing an analysis, keep personalities out of the fray, know your facts, and avoid lying at all costs. You should respond to this email with a thought out and factual-based reply. Presntly, you are a bush-league poster! Anyway, I'll give you a hint: By delivering a Via rail station, a bridge, light-rail, more buses, and possibly JDS for DND employees, Pratt is delivering for his constituents and garnering great media coverage. In addition, he called for Chretien to retire, is a Defence hawk who supported the War in Iraq, and his lengthy roots in Nepean versus those of a Calgarian, make him the frontrunner in this race. I understand he also has the best Campaign Team than he has in the past. And, let's not forget to mention that is a Senior cabinet Minister.
18/05/04 Nepean Boy
Liberals in the riding have been curiously noting the discrepancy between the spelling of Pierre's last name and the way he pronounces it at events and when he door knocks. If he introduces himself to you, he will tell you he is Pierre Paw-liver. However, his last name is spelt, 'Poi-lee-evre'. Is Piere pandering to an anti-french sentiment in the riding or is he ashamed of his last name - what's the story behind this?
15/05/04 Disappointed
Email: [hidden]
This should have been one of the easiest ridings to win in Eastern Ontario for the Conservative Party even with a relatively right wing Liberal who holds a senior cabinet post and who looks like will bring home a nice plum for the riding just before the writ is droppped (i.e. NDHQ). Unfortunately, and I say this as a staunch Conservative, Pierre is not only in the running to represent Nepean-Carleton but is also doing quite well in the worst-Conservative-candidate-in-the-country sweepstakes. I can say that I didn't vote for him at the nomination meeting and for every day that passes with a corresponding large number of blunders, my sympathy goes out to those who feel embarrassed that they did.
/05/04 Jockvale Junkie
Email: [hidden]
Who is Lisa Mcleod? Oh yeah, partner of Joe Varner, Ottawa Centre's Tory candidate in the last provincial election. Oh yeah, he garnered the fewest number of tory votes in any riding in the Province! Great strategy.
Today's announcement that the Otrain is coming to Nepean in the is a coup for Pratt. Not only did he bring us the Via rail station but now he's bringing us a bridge, light-rail, and more buses... JDS next. Pork-barelling, maybe, but who cares, it's what we need and have been asking for.
One thing that has been lost in all of this debate is the fact that the riding boundaries have changes since 2000. We lost Goulbourn and picked up suburban South Gloucester. What does this mean? Adieu CA-rich Goulbourn and hello yuppie Liberal Gloucester. The geographic change alone will help put Pratt over the top...
13/05/04 Nepean Boy
Once again the insider is out to lunch. Lisa McLeod is not a coup for the Poilievre campaign. Can the insider name me one great political success she has managed outside of her bosses campaign - which is due entirely to Harder's own abilities. In fact in Ottawa Centre, her and her husband (the Prov. candidate) supported some university student over the guy who won - not even a heavy hitter in her own riding!! This is a smart move by Harder who knows that Pratt will not be unseated by a 24 year old Calgarian. It's good for her district in terms of federal and provincial cash. In terms of McLeod, this is less than a non-factor in the election. A rainmaker McLeod is not.
13/05/04 J Poole
Given the history of this riding this will most likely NOT be a close election. That said however; you will have to wait until election day to figure out who is going to win. This is one of those ridings in which none of the common predictors (sign counts, endorsements, party memberships) has any bearing on the turnout. These guys might as well flip a coin.
12/05/04 Log Farm Lothario
Email: [hidden]
If it's true that Pierre has lured Lisa Macleod away from Jan Harder to run his campaign, then I don't see how he can lose. Macleod is a legend in Ottawa conservative circles, and will certainly have an impact. Though Pratt is one of the less odious Ottawa Grits, he will still be holding the short end of the stick.
12/05/04 Mr. Mischief
Email: [hidden]
The combined P.C. and Alliance vote in this riding was over 50%, and 10 percentage points more than that of the Liberal, in 2000. This is a solidly conservative riding. Although it would not be impossible for the Liberals to win with enough support transferred from the P.C. party, I think it will elect a Conservative.
10/05/04 The Insider
Email: [hidden]
This is going to be a close race, and regretfully for the riding, David may lose. David could have overcome the demographic challenges, but Pierre just lured one of the strongest Tory organizers in Eastern Ontario to his campaign. Yes, Jan Harder endorsed David, but her ex-Executive Assistant, Lisa Maclead resigned Ms. Harders's office in protest and will now be running Pierre's campaign. I also hear that David's campaign is disorganized because he has outsiders running the show this time. If David is to win, he will need to run a strong campaign and play-up the local roots. This is not over and it will be close.
01/05/04 John_1980
Email: [hidden]
If Ross is correct and Jan Harder is supporting David Pratt in this election, that is a huge blow to the Conservative cause in this riding - although I can't say I'm surprised given the Tories choice of candidate who has little to no connection to the riding. Obviously Harder understands that all politics is local and Pratt is as local as they come.
01/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
I think this riding will go Tory blue for 2 reasons: 1 is that it includes Conservative Nepean, and 2 it has a fairly large rural part of it. These are two reasons why I think the Conservatives will manage to win here. Plus, the riding is Conservative provincially, and the combined PC/CA vote totals would have won this riding last time around. To me, this points to painting this riding blue. The only thing that might keep this riding from going Conservative is the fact that the incumbent is a cabinet minister. I think it will be a very close race!
27/04/04 Ross
Email: [hidden]
Dream on guys, while it might have been close in 2000, the people of NC are now proud to have a Cabinet Minister as MP, and one who has matured politically and personally since taking his seat in 1997. Running a neophyte candidate and resident for the Conservatives just isn't going to cut it.
Even strongly conservative Councillor Jan Harder, who likely could have given Pratt a run for his money, A) isn't running and B) endorsed Pratt. It'll be a good riding to watch, but the Libs will hold on to it.
05/04/04 Buhay
Email: [hidden]
I'm in this riding and will probably help out the Conservative candidate but it will be a close race. I supported another nominee to be a candidate for the party precisely because I was unsure about the winning candidate's experience.
However, Pierre managed to impress enough of us to win a very tough nomination battle, which included a former MP, a former city councillor, a former candidate and two others. And it will be tougher to knock down a sitting cabinet minister but I suspect people in this riding want change so badly that they'll be willing to give Pierre a chance to prove himself.
04/04/04 JT
Email: jaytenca@yahoo.ca
I pick this one too close to call. If Mr.Pratt wasn't in cabinet I would pick an easy CPC win but with the Defense Minister having a high profile. Also, with the CPC running a neophyte this one is tough to predict.
Email: [hidden]
The new Conservatives won't be able to tap the full power of the merged party, but should squeak this one through based on the decline of the Liberal popularity. Pierre Poilievre isn't a celebrity candidate, but Pratt hasn't maintained the level of visibility to capitalize on his new portfolio as Minister of National Defense.
26/03/04 L. Garvin
Email: lgarvin@sympatico.ca
Don't know the conservative candidate but I just wanted to make a comment about the relative weight of Pratt's cabinet position. I think it may be overstated because I think he's far from secure in that role in any case.
- The Liberals plan to attack Harper for his hawkish stance on Iraq.
- Pratt was also a hawk on Iraq which made him a rarity in the Liberal caucus and his appointment to Defence was - by all indications - a result of that stance.
- All of a sudden the Liberals aren't quite so sure that they want to send friendly signals to the U.S. anymore. Hell, Martin can't even decide if he wants to be seen with Bush or not.
- Liberals in trouble will always run against the Americans.
- Running against Harper the Hawk and those nasty Americans means running against the Liberal Defence Minister.
If you follow all that convoluted reasoning, I think Pratt in Defence is looking like a mistake to the Liberals and he's not long for that position.
Speculative? You bet..
That's what we're here for, right?
23/03/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
I think the Tories have a great chance of winning this riding. This is a natural Conservative area and they have nominated a strong young Candidate. While MOB seems to think that the Candidate is too young to beat a Cabinet Minister - let me remind anyone that the Provincial MPP, John Baird, was only in his Mid 20's when he won this riding for the first time in 1995. Baird was one of the few tories to hold his seat in the last election. This all adds up to a Tory Win.
20/03/04 JGH
Email: [hidden]
This is becoming part of Ottawa's "mini-905" belt, that should in theory go Tory. It now has shed most of urban Ottawa and picks up Barrhaven, Riverside South, Manotick, and all those other biggish housing development towns who are pissed at being part of Chiarellitown. Pratt should by right be toast, but I wonder about the choice of CPC candidate here. Could change over time, but call this a close CPC win.
20/03/04 Nepean Boy
Email: [hidden]
The Tories must be pretty disappointed at their inability to attract a quality candidate in Nepean-Carleton. A 24 year old former staffer of Stockwell Day who grew up in Alberta and has only lived in the riding for one year just isn't going to cut it against a long-time City Councillor and current Cabinet Minister. Rumour is local Tory John Baird did polling in the riding and chose not to run after figuring out Pratt can't be beat. Pratt's vocal opposition to Chretien and strong support of the military will win him favour in the riding. Give this one to Pratt by 5%.
20/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Some time ago David Pratt was seen on the news talking about the (then) potential merger on the right. "I'm not worried about losing my seat" was what he commented. Dude! What are you thinking?!?! You should be VERY worried. The CA was very close last time. Combine the right vote and the right would have won. Redistribute has helped but not enough to stop this riding from going blue (heck, it did so in the Ontario provincial election). We think Pratt got a plumb cabinet position because Martin knew that this seat would likely be lost (reward Pratt now, while we have the chance).
19/03/04 MOB
Email: [hidden]
Although this seems like natural Tory territory, I highly doubt that the voters will go for a 24 year old Tory v. an experienced and high profile minister.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

As I've said for other ridings, the 2000 Alliance vote *cannot* be regarded as a reliable indicator of how Eastern Ontario will turn out this time. I suspect this riding will be very close, but Pratt strikes me as having the upper hand -- he's the most pro-military figure in Liberal caucus, and he's giving the area a cabinet voice. Plus, John Baird didn't make the leap. Pratt by 4%.
18/03/04 Tim K
Email: timmy_otoole17@hotmail.com
If David Pratt couldn't manage more than 41% of the vote in 2000, he's not going to be able to manage much better if better at all. I don't think its going to be a Conservative landslide, but I think it will be fairly narrow Conservative win anyways.
17/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
If David Pratt was not a cabinet minister, I would give this seat to the Conservatives. The profile Pratt has gained from being defence minister coupled with his right-wing stance on many issues (i.e., pro-Iraq war)will take the energy out of the Conservative campaign. Narrow Liberal hold.
17/03/04 V.D.
Email: [hidden]
Can't call this on yet. Should be a conservative gain, but Pratt is now a cabinet minister and it's likely the liberals will do a lot of campaigning here, while the conservatives have nominated a weak candidate (or from what i can tell, I admit I am not that knowledgeable on the candidate or the riding for that matter) but certainly weak compared to who was rumoured to be running (MPP John Baird). Have to wait and see how things develop...
16/03/04 RWA
This is the best chance for the Conservatives to knock off a Cabinet minister this side of Anne McClellan. The riding was a victim of vote splitting and is represented by a high profile Tory MPP.
15/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Dead Liberal Walking #7.
Another naturally Tory riding that went Liberal through vote splitting between the Alliance and PC's. Even if 40% of the PC vote goes Liberal, this riding swings back.

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