Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Random-Burin-St. George's

Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:05:00

Constituency Profile


Foote, Judy

Gutmanis, Tanya

Magalios, Stella

Ottenheimer, John

Judy Foote

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • bonavista-trinity-conception (38/290 Polls)
  • burin-st-georges (211/211 Polls)
  • humber-st-barbe-baie-verte (2/195 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 30 Petipas
    Judy's in trouble, and she knows it. Ottenheimer has been turning a lot of heads in this campaign, and while the NDP don't have a chance here, they are bleeding votes from the Liberals. John by around 500 votes.
    11 04 19 AR
    You know, I'm beginning to suspect this might be the only seat in Nfld to go conservative. Fabian Manning will have to answer to the fact he took a plump senate job in Avalon and Siobhan Coady has built a profile for herself in St.John's South-Mount Pearl. Ottenheimer is a star candidate and can create some distance between himself and the federal conservative party despite running for them. Although this may not be a traditional conservative seat, they can win here.
    11 04 11 Gerald
    I believe we have a very close race here in RBSTG. With the high profile Conservative candidate, John Ottenheimer, running. The tide is beginning to change. This riding has traditionally been a Lib riding in the past due to the fact that it seemed to lack a credible opponent. My prediction is a 500 vote victory for Ottenheimer who is very well respected here in the riding. He did live here in Lamaline and Stephenville years ago and knows the riding well. Going to be an exciting one to watch come May 2nd. Cheers
    11 04 10 Teddy Boragina
    This riding lives up to it's name. At various times, the ‘potential breakthrough’ for the Canadian Alliance, and NDP, (using the same candidate, at different dates IIRC) this riding also seems to swing by itself regardless of what else is going on. If there is to be a 3rd Conservative elected on this island, I expect it to be here.
    11 03 31 Jordan
    I think this could be a close riding with former Minister John Ottenheimer being the Conservative candidate. He's not from this area, which is not good for the CPC, but I think he has a definite chance against Judy Foote. Foote won 53% of the vote in 2008 which is quite good normally but considering the circumstances in NL and who she was she really didn't do that great. I think in 2008 her vote should have been well up into the 60's, besides SJSMP all the candidates pulled numbers like that and she should have too. Foote has some real competition unlike in 2008 and I don't think this is a safe riding for her, though I believe the riding is definitely leaning Liberal.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This has long been a Liberal stronghold with only a few exceptions and although I expect the Tories to cover some of their lost ground, I highly doubt they will take this. Chalk this up as an easy Liberal win.
    11 03 29 ATGM
    Too close to call, but possibly leaning Conservative. In 2006, the Liberals won it in a squeaker but at least Foote has been a presence in the house. It will depend alot on whether the Conservatives can attract a good candidate.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    My riding. Would like it to go CPC but I doubt that ever happens. Judy Foote is to well-known and popular for the election go any other way but Liberal.
    09 10 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    This is a riding that votes for a preferred candidate rather than for a particular party. Look at how Bill Matthews held it after crossing from the PC to the Liberals. With ABC over and if they could get such a popular candidate (what about Cynthia Downey?), the CPC could take this one. Those stay-at-home conservative voters have no reason to do so this time ya know.
    09 08 25 NorthernRaven
    Even though Judy Foote reduce the Liberal vote by 1000 votes, former Land & Sea Producer Herb Davis was unable to retain the Conservative vote as 8000 CPC voters stayed home during the ABC campaign. Unless a strong Conservative candidate sway these voters to show up to vote, the Judy Foote will win the riding again.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster