Prediction Changed
3:15 PM 27/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Random-Burin-St. George's
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Davis, Herb
Foote, Judy
Wainwright, Kaitlin
New Democratic
White, Terry

Bill Matthews

2006 Result:
Bill Matthews **
Cynthia Downey
Amanda Will
Mark Brennan

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 08 T.V.
First of all, David Kilgour left the Liberals over same-sex marriage. Secondly, he's from Edmonton, not Newfoundland. Thirdly, the Tory vote is collapsing in Newfoundland and they'd be extremely lucky to hold on to the seats they have.
08 10 02 In Lights
News headlines read 10/2/2008 ‘Former Liberal MP Kilgour supporting N.L. Tory’
Former Cabinet minister and MP for this riding, David Kilgour has written a letter to the local newspaper endorsing Conservative candidate Herb Davis. With margins in the last election as small as they were I suspect that this could put Conservative support over the top.
08 10 01 Liam O
Too close to call. Traditionally Liberal seat, but the Conservative candidate, Herb Davis, is a Belloram native and a very well known former host of one of the most popular regional television programs, ?Land and Sea.? NDP candidates, with the exception of Father Des McGrath (and even he didn't win) have never cracked this very rural very expansive riding. The popular Liberal incumbent is retiring and the new Liberal candidate is a Tobinite named Judy Foote. Even in her own provincial riding of Grand Bank, Judy nearly lost her provincial seat in her last provincial run. The Conservatives came within less than 1,500 votes of winning this riding last time and with a candidate less popular or well known and liked than Herb Davis. This is definitely a close two way race between the Liberals and the Tories. The Tories have likely gained ground because of NL municipalities have been alerted to the additional costs on their budgets that the Liberal carbon tax (see article in Telegram Sept 27 ?Green Shift concerns mayor?). The Liberals tried to calm municipalities by saying there'd be cash for them in infrastructure, but then a recording of John McCallum surfaced showing there wouldn't be one new penny above what the Tories had announced (See Now all bets are off and Random - Burin - St. Georges is definitely in play.
08 09 28 terreneuvien
Although this district has a natural tendency to vote liberal (albeit-Matthews did win it under the PC banner back in 1997), I am not convinced that Judy Foote has a clinch on this district yet. In terms of the signs, the Conservatives and NDP appear to have the bulk of lawn signs from Stephenville to Port aux Basques. I'm guessing things may be different around the Burin Peninsula where Ms. Foote has a residence. Also, the ABC campaign doesn't seem to be as prominent here as on the East coast. It wouldn't be a surprise if this district (with its vast geography) is more of a race than some of the pundits and previous posters think.
08 09 27 Robert
Are you nuts? Labrador is not a part of Quebec, so why would a bloc candidate run there? Todd Russell wins by absolute landslide, conservative candidate a parachute.
08 09 07 ducey
My riding, if not for the ABC campaign being waged by the provincial Conservatives, this could be in play for the federal Conservatives as Judy Foote is not the instant win people think she is. If the NDP ran a good candidate here they could win, I'm giving this to the Liberals, for now.
08 02 09 A.S.
With only a fragment of the publicity 2004's NDP Great White Newfie Hope Des McGrath got, '06's Tories shrunk Bill Matthews' winning margin considerably. But even if Cynthia Downey ran again, she'd have had little chance of scoring a finishing-unfinished-business open-seat pickup a la Chatham-Kent Essex, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, etc. Darned Danny Williams--for all we know, maybe the NDP's gonna sleepwalk back into second place to the Liberals...
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
I’m going to have to agree with our nameless predictor, and say that with the CPC expected to lose seats in Newfoundland, that it’s not really logical to have them listed as being competitive in a seat they don’t hold. We’ve seen swings in Newfoundland before that run counter to the National trend. A party can gain in every province – but lose in Newfoundland. Harper is possibly headed for the same fate. Liberal in this part of the world is a party, not a party leader – that means the faults of Dion will not mean as much here. The Liberals will be able to win here again without much of a problem, incumbent MP or not.
07 09 23
With the Liberals at 50% in Atlantic Canada in the most recent poll, it's crazy for this to be in the TCTC category. The Tories will be lucky to hold on to the seats that they already have.
07 09 16 Socred
This riding could be a conservative switch even with Danny Williams not supporting them. The biggest problem here is that there is no organization on the ground for I asked for a membership in the Conservative party and still never heard back a month later. This is discouraging to Conservative voters like myself and I predict if they the Conservative don't step up to the plate that again we will be stuck with a Liberal in a Conservative riding.
07 06 07 binriso
Forget expanding, the Conservatives will be lucky to hold on to what seats they have in the Atlantic region especially in NFLD and NS.
07 04 03 RF
This riding for now is too close to call. Bill Matthews today announced that he was retiring, meaning this is a wide open race. The chances for a CPC pickup, and thusly the Conservatives taking the majority of the seats in the province from under Danny Williams nose will fill Stephen Harper with glee - they'll get someone who is high profile to run, and focus many resources here.
Please do not overestimate Danny Williams.
07 03 24 M. Lunn
After the budget and Danny Williams promising to campaign against the Conservatives, I think they are toast in this riding. Matthews should win by a more comfortable margin this time around. I don't believe they will necessarily lose all three seats in Newfoundland & Labrador, but all their efforts will be on holding them not trying to pick up new ones.
07 03 24 td
With the announcement today that Cynthia Downey will not be running for the CPC, I see this seat going to the Liberals again, there are a few names out there for the Liberals and while Mister Harper may be getting a majority nationally I don't see him getting any seats here in NL because of his bad budget to NL this week.

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