Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte

Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte

Current Prediction:

Riding Profile:
Candidates:

Liberal Party:
	Gerry Byrne
Canadian Alliance:
	Murdock Cole
Progressive Conservative Party:
	Peter McBreaitry
New Democratic Party:
	Trevor Taylor

Incumbent:

Gerry Byrne

Previous Result:

	39.83%%
	39.06%
	6.50%
	14.60%

Surrounding Ridings:

Misc:

Population:	?
Avg Household Income	?
Language (Home)
English	?
French	?

Submitted Information Submit Informationhere

	18/10/00	GMW	Email:
If the Liberals are going to lose seats in Newfoundland, this will be first to go. Gerry Byrne's nomination was publicly opposed by every single provincial MHA in western NFLD - all Liberals, including senior cabinet ministers. Byrne won anyway, but came within a hair's breadth of losing to the PCs in '97. The Tories are now exinct here, but the NDP is running a strong candidate with the backing of the CAW. Look for an upset to the NDP.
	19/10/00	L.O.	Email: sprockley@hotmail.com
The only way anyone but Gerry byrne is getting this seat is if Lynn Verge, former NFLD PC Laeader runs for it. Gerry was Brian Tobin's Assistant. The Liberals probably have this one. Though Art Bull Did well here for the PC's. In any case, the NDP are in bad shape here . They don't have a chance.
	20/10/00	Peter Smith	Email: smithy6ca@yahoo.com
Gerry Byrne will likely win this riding again. But It is going to be close. The fight has already begun in the nimination stage. Last time around a less than well-known candidate (to anyone outside the education system), Art Bull, nearly took it for the PC Party. There has been some talk of former NFLD PC leader, Humber East MHA, and lawyer Lynn Verge running for the Tories here. Verge is a good organizer. During the 1998 federal PC leadership, she organized for Hugh Segal. Hers was the only riding in Atlantic Canada to vote Segal. It wasn't by accident. As for the NDP. It is unlikely they will have the cash, the name, or poor opposing candidates. That's the only way they got an MP elected here in '79. Fonse isn't around any more. The other possibility is that the guy defeated in the nomination (mercer) may actually run for one of the other parties. This is a battle between PC's and Liberals. Byrne is weak enough to loose if the Tories are equal to the enterprise. That's a BIG "if"....too close to call yet....
	29/10/00	A.S.	Email:adma@interlog.com
Lynn Verge, huh? For the simple fact that this is Tobin's old riding--with the special "Tobin factor" in this election--and Byrne was elected (however barely) as a Liberal, I'll still give the Libs the nod...for now. As for the NDP, nobody expected what Fraser March'd do against Fred Mifflin in '97, but...come now.
	07/11/00	D. Kirby	Email:
My sources in this riding are predicting a huge upset. The NDP candidate, Trevor Taylor (a fisherman with the Fish, Food and Allied Workers Union (FFAW/CAW)and a native of the Great Northern Peninsula), has Liberal incumbent Gerry Byrne spooked. Byrne is unpopular in the urban part of this riding and is seen as largely ineffective in Ottawa. For the kicker, this is the 1st time since Fonse Faour (NDP MP elected in 1978 (by-election) and 1979) won the riding that the NDP has mounted a significant campaign. Taylor has 3 campaign offices in the huge riding with many volunteers and significant backing from the CAW. This will be one to watch. Hang on to your seat Gerry!!
	21/11/00	AG	Email:
A wounded incumbant MP who had to fight for his own nomination and a lacklustre national Liberal campaign spell trouble for the Liberals. Add a vibrant NDP candidate with a strong campaign team, a hot local issue (it's the fishery, stupid), a disgruntled electorate and waning support for the other opposition candidates and you've got all the ingredients for an NDP upset in Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte.
	24/11/00	DJN	Email:
The NDP have to be thinking that they can pull this one off. Why else would Alexa's detour there on her way back to Nova Scotia on the last weekend of the campaign. Seems to me that her last minute detour 3 years ago was to Bathurst... and Godin won for the dippers there. I think you'd have to give Taylor the upper hand to steal this one for the NDP.
	25/11/00	Jeff Davis (JRFD)	Email:davisjr@is2.dal.ca
Hmmm... If this is a Liberal lock why is Alexa stopping in Cornerbrook instead of New Brunswick on her way back to Nova Scotia on the last Saturday of the campaign? Heck, she hasn't been in New Brunswick since Nov 10 and that was the only time during the campaign. On the other hand this is her second time back to the rock. What's bad for Yvon Godin is good for Trevor Taylor. Leaders don't go where they can't win in the last two days of the campaign. There has been some buzz on the NDP list-serve about this riding and concern that the hacks in Ottawa will forget about Newfoundland again. Fraser March did well despite the central organization last time. They would call up Ottawa tell them that canvassers were coming back with insanely great marks and would not be believed. Obviously they've learned from their mistake in Ottawa. The question is are the NDP overcompensating for their lack of attention paid to Fraser March last time or is this for real? After looking below the surface an NDP winhere isn't as unlikely as one might think. This riding is as urban as it gets outside of the Avalon Peninsula and thus much more likely to vote NDP. The NDP even won this seat in '78 and '79. Since then its been held by Brian Tobin and then Gerry Byrne. Gerry Byrne is considered to be a horrible MP even by his own party, virtually invisible. Newfoundland has had a history of sudden NDP surges out of nowhere in individual ridings, including this one, indicating a lot of latent support. It seems to me if the NDP could only get its act together here it could be as much a force in Newfoundland as they are in Nova Scotia. People didn't decide overnight that they liked the NDP in Nova Scotia, they just never thought they had a chance - same thing here. Until today I refused to believe that the NDP would even be close to winning a seat in Newfoundland but they wouldn't send Alexa at E-2 in unless polling showed the NDP within reach. I have a feeling that this campaign stop may have been added at the last minute. If there's going to be a shocker this election it will be here. You might want to consider making this at least an NDP/Liberal swing seat. You won't be embarrassed

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