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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:28 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:38 AM 06/05/2004

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Justin Dollimont
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Bill Matthews
Des McGrath
Larry Peckford

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Bonavista-Trinity-Conception (12.9%)
Hon. R. John Efford
Burin-St. George's (87.1%)
Bill Matthews
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte (0.01%)
Hon. Gerry Byrne

2000 Result/Résultats:
16,523 47.80%
7,211 20.86%
1,567 4.53%
1,565 4.53%
7,702 22.28%

(38/290 polls, 7760/66679 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Burin-St. George's
(211/211 polls, 52597/52597 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
(2/195 polls, 20/54042 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Mark R.
Email: [hidden]
Jack Layton didn't detour off the campaign trail to hit this riding unless their polls showed it was close or over the top. This will be an NDP gain in Atlantic Canada.
24/06/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
CORRECTION! Telelink poll gives Lib 35, NDP 19, CON 12, Und 34. Liberal Matthews in a walk.
24/06/04 Sam Coleridge
Email: [hidden]
I have been watching this battle and am now prepared to call it for Des McGrath. Regarding the previous poster, the fact that McGrath is willing to publicly declare where he parts from NDP social policy is only going to help him here, and he is far from washed-up; in fact, it's his own legendary status that is going not party-line voting that is going to allow him to win here next week.
20/06/04 mere Boulard
Email: [hidden]
You sure are current! For one thing, being pro-life but in favour of woman's right to choose an abortion are compatible stances. Father McGrath (not MCGRAW) briefly recieved national attention for his pro-life position, bu that does not mean he disagree's with party policy. And if he did, would anyone really, truely care? The man maintains popularity because of his community based endeavours, and will take this riding by a narrow but sufficient margin.
15/06/04 voice from BC
Email: [hidden]
June 1 report in the Georgian: 4 candidates hit the road & Desmond McGrath is running for the NDP- long time community activist. Bill Matthews, the incumbent candidate, was elected as a Conservative in 1997, but he crossed the floor to the Liberals - While Matthews easily won the riding in the past, Des McGrath will be the winner this time.
12/06/04 E. MacKenzie
Email: [hidden]
I'm sure Father McGrath is a wonderful man and an excellent candidate, but I can't believe the NDP can really go from 4.5% of the vote to winning what is essentially going to be a two man race, with the Conservatives almost irrelevant.
10/06/04 j Barter
I am current the Liberals will take this riding. Father McGraw is washed up and his personal beliefs as a RC priest conflict with the NDP policies, Larry peckford The PC running is relativly unknown outside of Stephenville, his brother Brian (Former Premier) is even surporting the Liberals.
10/06/04 DK
Email: [hidden]
Father Des is well known and respected throughout Newfoundland and Labrador. Fr. Des' only competition here is "Liberal" floor-crosser Bill Matthews.
People in the western part of the riding have voted NDP before - in 1978 (by-election) and 1979 NDP MP Alphonsus Faour was elected for the riding of Humber-St. George's-St. Barbe.
This race is at least too close to call.
02/06/04 JR
Email: [hidden]
It's a bit premature to consider this riding a sure Liberal win, especially with the entry into the race of Father Des McGrath, a retired Catholic priest, as the NDP candidate. Father McGrath is an extremely well-known historical figure in Newfoundland, founding, along with Richard Cashin and others, the predecessor of the first effective fishermen's union in the province. While he's unlikely to draw much attention nationally, McGrath is one of the NDP's true star candidates, and is well known throughout this riding, having served in many communities over his career. Even though Bill Matthews was re-elected as a Liberal, he was initially elected as a Tory, so this seat could go any one of three directions.
01/06/04 Olive_Branch
Email: lombardimax@hotmail.com
According to my math the prediction for this riding should be listed as NDP not Liberal. Anyway, add my two cents: Father McGrath has enough personal support to win this riding even if he runs for the Blooming Idiots Party.
27/05/04 Paul O'Keefe
Email: [hidden]
Stephenville and area has a large population within the Random-Burin-St.George's riding. The PCs here had a hard time with their riding choice in the provincial election. Instead of letting Ron Dawe run as the PC candidate if he was elected by the riding association, Williams vetoed this idea and practically appointed Joan Burke who has had little voice in the legislature so far. Many people are still upset with the conservative's lack of democracy. Since this is a town full of government services, the PC cutbacks on the public sector will probably result in a backlash against a federal Conservative candidate. The public sector service here will probably throw their support behind the star NDP candidate, Father Desmond McGrath, or Liberal, Bill Matthews. Matthews has been the incumbent for several terms here now, but under him, Stephenville watched the privatization of its international airport and Port Harmon. The harbour has been an especially sticky issue because the federal government didn't follow due process in its divestiture and Bill Matthews did little to attempt to rectify the problem.
The conservatives are not anywhere close to being in the race for this riding yet. It's up between the Liberals and the NDP. The population may be in the mood for a change and since the NDP has it's star labour and religion candidate, I predict that Father Desmond McGrath will take the riding.
25/05/04 Mike White
Email: [hidden]
Random Burin St. George's is the most Liberal district in all of Newfoundland and Labrador. Only twice since Confederation has the seat voted anything other than Liberal. The seat is so Liberal that the last Tory to win it had to cross the floor to the Liberals to stay elected. Tories don't stand a chance.
As for the NDP, Fr. Des McGrath is a noble and honourable man of the cloth who has a strong following in the union movement. He will improve the NDP's position in the riding but won't come anywhere near winning it. If he get's his deposit back it will be a great showing for the NDP.
28/05/04 Mike D
It would different if John Efford was the incumbent. Than I'd concede that the Liberals have a chance against Father Des McGrath. But it is only a minor player named Bill Matthews, and a floor-crosser at that. This is the kind of star quality candidate I talked about (under Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte) that allows for the NDP to come out of nowhere for a victory. A surprise NDP seat.
28/05/04 D.F.
Email: [hidden]
Wait a sec. A Roman Catholic priest running for the NDP? How's that work?
This riding is too old to back Jack Layton and if Matthews is smart, he'll start asking about NDP policy re: gay marriage and abortion. Drive home that a vote for Father Des is really a vote for these things and presto changeo the still very popular Matthews (in some areas of the riding) sqeaks a win.

This is the only riding on the island where the Dippers have a chance. They may take it, but the Lib's Island total will stay constant via the beating they're going to give Rex Barnes after the local riding association got nailed for hubris in the bye-election and seeks redemption.
Incidentially, no one here has any idea who the tories are running. Gonna be too little, too late for Reform 3.0
How do you go from 652 to win the riding? Are you dippers smoking the ganga again? I don't know this riding, but the numbers simply aren't there for an NDP victory.
23/05/04 Ashley Morton
Email: ashley.morton@utor...
Clearly, McGrath will win the nomination. Thus, clearly, we have a race on our hands.
Can you imagine a worse situation to be in for an incumbent? You're all set to run a straightforward, clean-cut re-election campaign, and then you suddenly find yourself opposed by the local version of a cross between Nelson Mandela and the Pope!
Good luck, B'y, but I'd hate to be in your shoes.
23/05/04 Sean Meades
Email: [hidden]
Liberal tradition my foot. Bill Matthews was originally a Conservative, don't forget! What makes the difference in Newfoundland ridings is the candidate. In 73 & 74, this riding was both tory and liberal (Burin-Burgeo = Liberal Don Jamieson, Humber--St. George's--St. Barbe = Conservative Jack Marshall). In a 78 by-election, and the 79 general, the NDP took the Humber riding with Fonse Faor(part of which is in moder Random-Burin-St. George's) who was defeated by Brian Tobin in 1980. In '84, Burin--St. George's went to the Conservative Joe Price. Then the riding went Liberal until 97 when Matthews was first elected as a Conservative. Some people seem to think that all a riding needs is an incumbant to have a "tradition," it would seem.
Anyhow, with a candidate like Fr. McGrath, this will be an exciting race indeed! This should definitely be in the NDP column.
23/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
It has now been confirmed that Des McGrath is running for the NDP in this seat. Since the Liberal incumbent is a nobody and ridings like this tend to go very much for the individual regardless of party - I say chalk one up for the NDP - PRONTO!
19/05/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
The rumors about Father Desmond McGrath seem to be true. This will definately put this into play for the NDP. In areas like this the candidate is much more important than the party, so with a weak turncoat MP like Matthews this will be in play. McGrath is extremely popular here, popular enough to win this, even for the NDP. I lived in Newfoundland for several years and the people here have nothing against the NDP, they'll just not vote NDP unless the candidate is strong enough that it isn't seen as a wasted vote. I can't think of a stronger candidate.
19/05/04 Jesse Hoffman
I have been told that within the next week, Father Des McGrath, will declare his candidacy for the NDP in this riding. Des McGrath has been descibred to me as a true working class hero, who is legendary in the riding. The excitement in NDP circles over his candidacy speaks volumes in itself. Yes, common sense would say the NDP cannot not go from 4.5% of the popular to winning the riding, but it seems as though McGraths personal popularity is so great, that he could win no matter what party's banner he was running under. I truly think this is going NDP on election day.
19/05/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
The recent boundary changes make this an even more LIBERAL riding.
Of course, the conservatives might get themselves a star candidate, but even star candidates have a hard time cracking through the Liberal tradition in this riding. Only one Liberal has ever lost in this riding since confederation -- Roger Simmons. He lost it twice to two different candidates - Joe Price in 1984 and Bill Matthews in 1997...Bill later crossed the floor to sit in the nosebleed section of the government backbenches... rough provincial 2003 results for this area - Conservative 49%, Liberal 47%(one of the highest), and NDP 4%...
18/05/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
Rumor has it that Father Desmond McGrath, a retired Roman Catholic priest, working-class hero and founder of the Fishermen's Union, will declare his candidacy for the NDP this week. He'd be probably the best candidate the NDP has EVER run in Newfoundland, albeit in a riding that the NDP has not performed well in before. But Bill Mathews is a Tory-to-Liberal turncoat and probably weaker than any other incumbent in the province. I smell the rumblings of an historic upset.
18/05/04 Doyle
Email: [hidden]
There is a rumour floating that Des McGrath is going to declare for the NDP nomination here. If true, then this really will be a horse race. The NDP doesn't have a fixed base in Newfoundland outside of some pockets of St. John's, but the New Democrats have a history of polling well beyond their typical numbers when they run a strong local candidate in Newfoundland and Labrador. In fact, if McGrath is in, I'd even give the NDP the edge here, regardless of past history.
18/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Apparently the NDP has landed the star candidate to end all star candidates in this riding - Father Desmond McGrath a legendary retired priest and fisherman's union activist. I'm told that he can win this seat hands down no matter what party he was for!
05/05/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Too close to call? Bill Matthews doesn't have any opponents yet and the election is just days from being called. The Independent who ran last time was an Independent Liberal whose votes will pad Matthews already healthy margin. The provincial Conservative government is past its honeymoon and the federal Conservatives are not the best placed to challenge Liberal outport dominated ridings. Until or unless a very good Conservative candidate appears, I would expect a Matthew victory of 25% plus...
29/04/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
Most of the Synard and PC vote from 2000 will coalesce behind Matthews.
The redistributed riding would actually be (very slightly) more Liberal in 2000 if it had been run on the new boundaries. Four of the ten remaining provincial Liberal districts in Newfoundland overlap in whole or in part with the new RBSG federal riding.
And Danny Williams hasn't exactly done the "Conservative" brand name many favours in his province. If Harper tells Ontario and the West how he plans to reduce the size of government, he might as well write off six, if not all seven seats in Newfoundland and Labrador.
22/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is one of two ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador that we feel is uncertain at this point. This riding went PC under Charest in 1997 only to have Bill Matthews cross the floor to the Liberals (was the first Conservative to jump ship prior to Joe Clark taking over). Last election a popular independent condidate took a large chunk of the votes. Its uncertain whether the Conservatives under Steven Harper can gather enough support to win back this riding or if the various scandles and suck effect the Liberals at all. We say a toss up at this point and we're really undecided at this point.
18/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The CA candidate here was the former NDP provincial leader. This riding is left-wing, and, if I recall correctly, has only voted PC once since confederation (1949 for newfoundland)
I dont think there will be any surprise when a Liberal takes this riding.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: [hidden]
Under Stephen Harper's leadership I don't think the Tories will lose most of the seats they already hold in Atlantic Canada, but I don't expect them to make major pickups (except for Tobique-Mactaquac in NB).
Email: [hidden]
I don't think there are any safe Liberal seats on the Island, and the recent provincial results reflect that fairly well. Bill Matthews is in for quite a fight.

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