Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country


Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:44:36
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chapman, Carol-Lee

Goldsmith-Jones, Pam

Kehler, Robin

Koopman, Larry

Melamed, Ken

Weston, John


Population/populations
(2011 census)

112875


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2384045.79%
1117721.47%
1239523.81%
39717.63%
Other 6791.30%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
   (216/227 polls, 94.79% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
John Weston
23220
10403
12076
3692
Other670


   Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
   (11/227 polls, 5.21% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Mark Strahl
620
774
319
279
Other9



 


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15 10 17 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Narrow Liberal lead here according to today's Mainstreet poll, although it's possible the Conservatives could pull off a win depending on Election Day turnout.
Decided & Leaning:
Goldsmith-Jones - 37%
Weston - 32%
Koopman (NDP) - 15%
All Voters:
Goldsmith-Jones - 34%
Weston - 29%
Koopman (NDP) - 14%
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-riding-polls/
15 10 16 Island Rancher
108.180.11.127
Perhaps the redraw of Constituency lines has brought more of those Powell River Conservative votes home to our North Island riding again after a 20 year absence. I always felt it was strange to have the very old Comox riding continuously carved up over time just to have them returned again. I still think there is going to be some surprise on Election Day in this riding for John Weston to take it slightly.
15 10 15 Conservative Pundit
108.180.146.110
An Insights West poll conducted on October 10 with 403 adult residents of this riding shows support as follows: 36% Liberal, 26% Conservative, 12% NDP, 11% Green and 15% undecided. This one is a sure win for Liberals.
15 10 15 Jeff S
12.10.199.10
Liberal.
https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/media-releases/Oct-15-2015-federal-election-polling
15 10 14 Craig Hubley
173.212.125.141
Likely to further push this Liberal, there's a well-publicized live vote swap meet in Vancouver Thursday (Thornton Park, 5:30PM) so that Greens living here have the opportunity to swap for a more useful vote in a nearby riding, and NDP here have the opportunity to pitch an NDP vote to Granville, Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge, Port Coquitlam voters who really prefer to see all Cons gone. Probably forever banished from the Pacific.
Thus leaving federal politics in coastal and near coastal BC looking just like provincial politics in BC. Much simpler for everyone. ;-)
15 10 13 BC predictor
162.156.138.98
The 2011 CPC vote here likely includes far more former liberal voters than seats like south surrey and Delta. With the LPC up in polls and the CPC down its seats like those on the north shore where we'll see the swing. LPC win around 40% of the vote
15 10 11 South Islander
184.69.175.26
Every local poll has put PSG, the popular former mayor, in the lead. As the Liberals open up a lead nationally and and make a play for BC, this is looking like a lock. Time to call it.
15 10 11 Jack Cox
24.226.65.140
Liberals are on the rise all over Canada according to the latest polling, that should be enough to pull Goldsmith-Jones over the finish line.
15 10 08 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This appears to be one of the closer ridings in BC and my though is it won't really be decided till the final week . it has mostly been a conservative riding in recent years but would generally be considered a swing riding . John Weston has been the mp since 2008 and in a close race his performance as mp could be an important factor. He has been mp for a number of years so has his record in Ottawa to campaign on . the ndp and liberal candidates are new and not ran in this riding so its harder to get a feel for how they will do here . bc politics is often so volatile its hard to try and predict ridings like this one.
15 10 07 Craig Hubley
71.7.138.94
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency shows four riding level polls since July all of them with Liberals ahead.
With the general Liberal rise in BC and the fact that this one is coastal, and Conservatives are being kicked off all three coastlines (Pacific and Arctic and Atlantic), I'm calling this one Liberal.
15 10 07 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Look; where and when the NDP is strong, it's *really* strong, at least inherently (Squamish and along the coast)--but West Van kills that off utterly, and the excision of Powell River only twists the knife (and the addition of deceptively-notionally-NDP Pemberton really works more in the Liberals' 'Whistlerland' favour). Weston's CPC advantage is that of 2011 figures; however, in a Justin Ascendant era, any old ReformAlliance seat that went Liberal in the Paul Martin era should be deemed 'top pickup potential'--particularly in light of PGJ's candidacy; and particularly in light of presence of Whistler, where Gritphobics might claim that *everyone* might as well be a Justin'n'Sophie clone. The bigger barrier to Liberal chances might be however vestigially strong the Green vote remains (again, largely in Whistlerland, as well as the coast beyond Squamish)
15 10 07
64.66.22.112
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country is an incredibly diverse riding. It stretches from the super-rich areas of West Vancouver up Howe Sound through Squamish and Whistler. Across Howe Sound lies the Sunshine Coast.
There are super-high profile candidates here. The Tories are running lawyer and incumbent John Weston, the Liberals former West Vancouver mayor Pam Goldsmith-Jones, the Greens are running former Whistler mayor Ken Melamed, and the NDP is running businessman and former candidate Larry Koopman.
My prediction is roughly LPC: 34%, CPC: 29%, NDP: 21%, GPC: 16%, so a pretty strong win for Liberal candidate Pam Goldsmith-Jones
I've broken this riding down into 6 areas: Whistler-Pemberton, Squamish-Sea To Sky, West Vancouver-Horseshoe Bay, Gibsons-Bowen Island, Sechelt, and West Vancouver-Canyon Heights. The support breakdown is LPC/CPC/NDP/GPC.
Whistler-Pemberton
This area is made up of the mountainous ski resort of Whistler and the nearby alpine community of Pemberton. Whistler itself is very high income, and normally a split between the LPC and CPC. This should remain the same, with a bit more growth for the LPC and the expense of the CPC. Meanwhile, the Greens should do well here where Melamed was a popular mayor. The NDP is strong in Pemberton and the other rural areas, but they are not high population enough to tip the balance. 35/30/15/20
Squamish-Sea To Sky
This area is made up of the communities which lie along the Sea-To-Sky highway, the largest of which is Squamish. This is the strongest area for the NDP in the riding, but also the weakest for the Conservatives. 30/20/40/10
West Vancouver-Horseshoe Bay
The western part of West Vancouver. Extremely high-income, it is solidly Conservative. The Liberal candidate's profile as former of mayor of the city should help her make inroads, but it seems likely she will be unable to win the most polls here.
35/40/10/15
West Vancouver-Canyon Heights
The eastern part of West Vancouver. It has gone Conservative in the last few elections, although less decisively then the western part of the city. Goldsmith-Jones should be able to win the most votes here, while the small aboriginal reservation will provide the NDP with some limited support. 40/35/15/10
Gibson-Bowen Island
Isolated from the Lower Mainland by Howe Sound, Gibson has been an NDP/Tory split while Bowen Island has been Liberal. The Liberals should be able to grow off this base, mostly at the expense of the NDP. The Greens also have a chance to make inroads here among very environmentally-minded voters. 35/25/20/20
Sechelt
Very similar to Gibsons, Sechelt has been an NDP/CPC competition but has room for the Liberals and NDP to grow. 30/25/25/20
15 09 29 BC predictor
162.156.138.98
I have to agree with the below poster; this is not an NDP riding. With the liberal polling numbers in BC they'll likely be approaching double digits in seats and the 2 1/2 north shore ridings are the prime locations for them to pick up
15 09 23
75.157.6.8
I'm going to call this one for the Liberals.
This is not a CPC vs. NDP race at all. It's CPC vs. Liberals and I think the Liberals are gaining the upper hand here. Sorry to say it, but West Vancouver never votes for the NDP as will be explained.
This riding has a ton of wealthy towns mainly in West Vancouver that tend to vote Conservative but have no problem voting Liberals when the Conservatives lose favour. In fact, it's not so much a matter of voting for the Conservatives among the wealthy here but voting against the NDP. For some reason, wealthy BC households really don't like the NDP and they will vote Conservative, Liberal or even Green (see the case of the Uplands in Victoria) to hold back the NDP. This explains why BC had the Social Credit Party and now the BC Liberals - a union of anti-NDP voters who will vote Conservative or Liberal.
This time, that vote is going to the Liberals.
Another factor helping the Liberals is the strong Persian-Canadian population here and in North Vancouver. Persians, for some reason, really dislike Harper and they are voting Liberal.
15 09 01 R.O.
24.146.23.226
Its way to early to write John Weston off here although its always been a competitive riding in bc. The conservative vote here has always been around 35%-45% between 2004 and 2011 in this riding. The liberals did win it once in 2006 when Blair Wilson was mp for a couple years but returned to conservatives next election. I'd say its too close to call for time being
There was also a poll from angus reid released august 26 and it had regional numbers and polled around 800 voters in bc. The ndp was leading however not by a significant margin . there numbers for bc were 37 ndp , 32 cpc and 22 liberal. At those numbers the conservatives would still be able to hold many of there historical ridings considering much of the ndp support is in metro Vancouver and Vancouver island. This riding is likely too close to call
15 08 28 Griffin Lea
24.68.141.55
The recent poll mentioned below put the Green Party at 19%, which is an 11% increase from what they received in 2011. They are the only party with any true momentum in this riding and have turned it into a four way race.
I can definitely see a possible Green upset here, especially considering their high profile and excellent candidate, Ken Melamed and the swelling support in other nearby ridings North Vancouver and Burnaby-North Seymour (not to mention their two way race with the NDP on Vancouver Island following a recent insight's west poll.
15 08 27 John
204.191.168.30
The direction this riding goes will depend heavily on what happens with the Green Party.
While there has been some riding redistribution, the Green Party showed some strength in the predecessor ridings to the current West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea To Sky Country riding. And the Green Party is more likely to bleed support from the Liberals and the NDP than it is from the Conservatives.
That will make it easier for the Conservatives to take this riding on a plurality.
15 08 23 Terry The Canadian
173.206.244.106
With the race now between the Liberals and NDP, I think this is now the NDP's to lose. Watch the NDP take 70-80% on the Sunshine Coast and 45-60% in the Sea to Sky Country. As long as the NDP can take at least 30% of the vote in West Vancouver, the NDP should easily take this on election day.
15 08 24 RJC
38.99.129.1
If you believe that Environics poll, the Tories are dead in the water here. Unless the NDP sweeps to a majority government, I think the Liberal candidate is probably the best fit for the riding and will carry the day.
15 08 23 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Too soon to make Liberal predictions since the Environics riding poll only showed a narrow Liberal lead and is within the margin of error.
If the poll is accurate, it shows the NDP have a shot here. That is at odds with the history of this riding which has usually resulted in a 3rd place NDP finish and because this is a wealthy riding that usually votes Conservative, and only occasionally Liberal. However, with the NDP up in BC & Vancouver this year, it's possible the NDP are more competitive here than usual.
What's most surprising about the riding poll is to see the Conservatives in 3rd. We will have to wait & see more numbers before knowing whether the Conservatives are actually that low.
15 08 20 Garth
216.108.168.67
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the Liberals with a narrow lead over the NDP. Conservatives in third place.
15 08 21 Balon
24.224.204.13
According to Environics poll in this riding for Leadnow (Aug 15-18), none of the four parties are running away with it: LPC 30%, NDP 27%, CPC 23%, Green 19%.
15 08 07 Follow the Numbers
24.139.3.217
I'm surprised that few people here have mentioned that the Liberal candidate is the popular former mayor of West Vancouver, Pamela Goldsmith Jones. The Liberals tend to win this riding when they have a strong candidate who is competitive in West Vancouver. When you also add in that the polling numbers have the Liberals leading here, I think that it's safe to call this one for the Liberals.
15 08 02 K
174.7.188.27
Many prominent NDP members are throwing their support behind Pam. She's a very uniting figure. Past and present NDP members are behind her. The NDP is running a very weak candidate. The NDP knows it has no shot in this riding and unofficially is throwing support behind Pam...their distaste for Weston will drive the NDP vote to the Liberals with such a strong candidate who is perceived to have the best shot at winning.
15 08 02 Laurence Putnam
172.218.42.18
I think the 'popularity' of Pamela Goldsmith-Jones is being vastly overstated on here. PGJ rode into office in 2005 in the aftermath of the West Vancouver Council's extremely controversial approval of the Evelyn Drive development. It ended up costing a man who truly had been a popular Mayor, Ron Wood, his job. Goldsmith-Jones abstained from taking any position on the issue and ran against Wood, becoming the putative 'anti-development' candidate without actually ever stating her position on the issue as being for or against. After being elected, the development continued anyway. She accomplished absolutely nothing in six years as West Vancouver Mayor and showed no leadership on any issue, making her the perfect candidate for Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party in West Vancouver.
15 07 15 Expat
67.193.243.209
TCTC is the right call for now in West Vancouver. A riding-specific poll has all three major parties within 4 points of each other here.
Reference: https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/insights-west-polling-july?mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRonvazBZKXonjHpfsX56uskW6OylMI%2F0ER3fOvrPUfGjI4ARcRnI%2BSLDwEYGJlv6SgFTbfBMbNo1bgPWRk%3D
15 04 26 Docere
50.101.245.47
When the Liberals run a candidate who is competitive in West Vancouver, they can win this riding. Former West Van mayor Pamela Goldsmith Jones is running here. The Conservatives are down in the polls in BC and the Liberals are up quite a bit and this is certainly a riding they can pick up. For now, marking this TCTC.
15 03 29 monkey
174.114.31.13
A rather diverse riding. The Sunshine Coast is generally where the NDP and Greens are strongest while Liberals weak and Tories have around 1/3 support but with Powell River area being lopped off and people in this riding knowing the NDP and Greens cannot win, I suspect many will strategically vote Liberal. Bowen Island is also fairly left wing so Liberals should take that too. NDP tends to do well in Squamish as its a blue collar town but I wouldn't be surprised if many vote Liberal strategically. Whistler as a ski resort should go Liberal, while the Conservatives will win Lions Bay. West Vancouver is the interesting question. Provincially it goes around 70% BC Liberal so definitely right leaning, but centre-right not hard right so as long as the Liberals stay close to the centre they can be competitive here and in enough strategic votes elsewhere could put them over the top. The Tories could hold this due centre-left vote splitting or if the Liberals veer too much to the left meaning the CPC margins in West Vancouver will be too big to overcome elsewhere.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
70.26.27.187
The strong Liberal numbers make this a race. Conservative numbers will fall, but not by enough to give the LPC the seat. CPC hold, barely.
15 03 26 Fairview Resident
24.87.28.82
Craig has posted a few times about this vote-swapping thing, but it doesn't appear to be based on any evidence so much as optimism. I don't know what he means by “Because the Liberals and NDP have not managed to challenge the Cons here, despite its federal numbers it's one of the most likely ridings for Greens to target for another focused campaign.” I'm not sure that he actually bothered to look at the riding's recent history. The Liberals almost won the riding in 2004 and won it in 2006. When Blair Wilson was booted from the Liberals and decided to run for the Greens, he came fourth. If anything, the Liberals are the only ones who have successfully managed to challenge the Cons, and the Greens completely blew their chance to hold it in 2008. History and common sense tell us that the Liberals are the clear alternative to the Tories here. Given that the party is competing for first place in BC, that they have won this riding in the past with less support in BC than they have now, that their candidate is a former mayor of West Van, and that the incumbent is not particularly strong, the Liberals will probably take this.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
76.11.94.51
Because the Liberals and NDP have not managed to challenge the Cons here, despite its federal numbers it's one of the most likely ridings for Greens to target for another focused campaign. In the 2013 election Sunshine was one of those regions that had a respectable Green presence, but far more importantly, it's about the only such region that was Conservative-held federally.
The Victoria and Islands numbers are far better in absolute terms for the Greens, but displacing NDP incumbents is just far harder to build up very much support for. By contrast it's easy to ditch a truly bad Conservative - even former Social Credit constitution minister Rafe Mair alleged that in Weston's time as an MP he had 'never uttered a single word of criticism of any statement or action by the [Conservative] government'.
Then there's 'his legal activism on behalf of right-wing causes....
Weston is the founder of the Canadian Constitution Foundation (CCF). He said he founded the group in 2002 to promote and uphold the rights of Canadians against governments that undermine the rights of individuals.
Weston's foes on the political left use more critical language to describe the CCF goals. The Ontario Health Coalition described the CCF as an 'extremely right-wing' legal advocacy group that uses the Charter of Rights to promote a conservative agenda, including the end of medicare.'
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=45cbc920-725e-4eea-a998-f319dd67bb37
Seriously, co-opting the initials CCF for a far-right wing anti-medicare campaign? It's enough to get even lifetime card carrying chainsaw loving NDP members voting Green, if that's what's required to get this guy out.
I can't imagine a more perfect vote swapping target, which is why I'm not giving this to him, nor to the NDP, because they foolishly often fail to realize when a seat could be theirs just in exchange for votes that count for nothing anyway, like in Saanich-Gulf or Yukon.



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