08 03 24	R.O. 209.91.149.81
Well the reality is Blair Wilson is in some trouble here the way I look at it he has 2 problems first one being he is currently sitting as an independent liberal mp and if he runs as an independent in this traditionally conservative riding he is done mean other than last election it has almost never been liberal and was even the home riding of high profile conservative mp John Reynolds. All the bad press over his elections Canada troubles combined with a good conservative candidate in John Weston will be too much. His second problem is the liberals are not as popular in bc as they were when he first got elected even if he returns to them somehow they are trailing the cpc in the polls in this province and the recent by-election in Vancouver Quadra indicated there support has not grown here.
	08 02 10	rebel 99.246.104.177
While public opinion polls vary nationally, most have shown a distinct trend to the Conservatives in British Columbia compared with 2004 and 2006. This riding should be the first in the province to go from Liberal to Conservative and my assumption for the next campaign is that the Conservatives will forge most of their gains from Quebec and BC...with the potential for failure to win a majority coming from Ontario.
	08 12 30	A.S. 99.233.96.153
Believe it or not, this seat could still be winnable for the Liberals--all it might take is a candidate of the stature of Ted Nebbeling, and Blair Wilson's misdeeds would be forgiven. Though whimsically speaking, imagine if Wilson lost his candidacy midelection, and the Liberal machine responded by doing a ‘Central Nova’--maybe with an even greater likelihood of Green victory here...
	08 12 30	Left Coast 64.59.144.85
Although the Lions Gate bridge reminds one of the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, West Vancouver with its mix of nouveau riche wealth in monster homes and reactionary Colonel Blimp Brits is more akin to the Republican-voting oceanfront suburbs of Orange County than to the ultraliberal Marin County. Blair Wilson only took this by a narrow margin last time and with his scandal, this should go back to the Conservatives.
	07 12 16	binriso 156.34.226.67
You know this might have been a good place for Adrianne Carr to run. The Greens managed 10% here in 04 and could stand to do well because of Wilsons legal problems and the fact that she ran here provincially and did quite well twice(or at least Powell River Sunshine Coast was where she ran). This wouldve been the best chance for her to win in BC but there was a very small chance of that no matter what riding she ran in. Even though the CPC might lose some seats in BC (Kingsway for sure, maybe Kamloops, Pitt Meadows and Fleetwood Port Kells too) CPC probably win it here, I mean their candidate even gained a point over what John Reynolds managed in 04 even though he lost in 06. And the same guy is running this time. Probably wont be by a whole lot but a couple thousand votes or a bit more.
	07 11 14	T.V. 209.202.78.177
I'm inclined to believe that this seat will probably go Tory. If the election isn't for a while and Wilson is exonerated, he will probably hold on. At this point, though, the Liberals don't even know if he will be their candidate or not. If so, his scandal will depress the vote enough for the Tory to win comfortably. If he doesn't run, the Liberals will have to scramble to find a new candidate. If they miraculously find a star, they'll win, but if not they'll have a very hard time.
	07 11 11	binriso 156.34.236.173
CPC wins now comfortably it seems. I think that all 3 parties will make a few gains mostly at the expense of the Liberals here and it will be enough to put the CPC over the top.
	07 10 29	Laurence Putnam 24.87.80.99
Wilson had branded himself well enough that this was his to lose - however, I think he has lost it. On one hand, its important to note that most scandals can be relied upon to blow over, and over the long term, one event like recent events usually isn't enough to completely turn the seat. The allegations themselves don't necessarily mean the seat is lost. On the other hand, this isn't your typical riding. Here we have a rookie MP who won by less than a thousand votes, now (if he runs again) running for a very weakened Dion-led Liberal party. If it isn't Wilson again, the incumbency edge is gone. The 60% of the riding that encompasses the ‘Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky’ part of the riding, is for the most part working class and rural small town enough that the Wilson scandal will go over badly. The 40% that is the West Vancouver part, which is the part of the riding that was Wilson's base, will dump him unceremoniously for this black eye on the community. West Vancouver has an eerily collective approach to its local politics - one observes how Mayor Pat Boname won the 1996 election only to place fourth in the 1999 election. Mayor Ron Wood was then the two-term Mayor who was dumped by a 2-1 margin in 2005 over a development issue. I expect Wilson will meet a similar fate. At the same time, I wouldn't say his career is over for good. Just for now.
	07 10 29	Al R 207.210.27.108
Blair Wilson is suffering. He has resigned from the Liberal caucus because of substantial allegations of electoral fraud and also allegations that he lied about his successes in business and cheated his in-laws. If he runs again the Conservatives will win for sure. If not it is still likely the Conservatives (polling high in BC) will pick this seat up as there will be no incumbency factor.
	07 10 29	V. 142.177.229.19
With allegations that Blair Wilson didn't disclose all of his expenses during the last election campaign, and him 'resigning' from the liberal caucus, that makes the race wide open.
	07 10 29	King of Kensington 76.64.30.172
With Blair Wilson's spending scandal I'll give the Tories the definite edge here but it's a little too early to call it. The NDP and Greens both play a ‘wild card’ role that could ultimately determine the winner. I imagine a large Green vote ultimately hurts the Liberals more than the Tories, especially given Elizabeth May's relationship with Dion. The larger the Green vote, the worse for Wilson. Then again, the NDP is running an unconventional candidate in Dana Larsen, an opponent of the drug war and former member of the Marijuana Party. I don't know how well this well play in the more working class towns in the riding which voted Reform in the Chretien years but have come back to the NDP. If they move away NDP this time, I think they're more likely to go Tory than Liberal. Then again Larsen could take a lot of the Green vote and increase the NDP vote somewhat in West Van. Maybe the Tories will pressure the local candidate to step aside for David Emerson here if he has any desire to stay in electoral politics. After all his chances are much much greater in West Van (filled with vulgar nouveau riche types and some old Colonel Blimp Brits) than in his home riding of Quadra. West Van may have a few movie industry types in its population but on the whole it has more in common with the ‘OC’ than it does with Beverly Hills.
	07 10 29	Buhay 68.145.31.163
Not sure yet who's going to win this riding but the news about the current Lib MP's overspending during the last election is not going to go over well. Blair didn't win with too many votes last time and this kind of revelation (by former staff and family to boot) means that incumbency, if he manages to stay in the party, is going to be a detriment not an advantage. I know BC is home to premiers who drink and drive and politicians who start affairs with other MLAs - and still get elected, but this kind of revelation will bring some of those Lib voters to the NDP and thus elect the Tory.
	07 10 29	Rebel 198.103.104.12
Undoubtedly several will post about the resignation of Blair Wilson from the Liberal caucus. Several news articles suggest a number of people concerned with alleged expense irregularities and payments of cash to avoid reporting etc. There may also be some infighting or factionalism within the Liberal riding association or, in any event, members of its campaign team. No riding is blase about suggestions like this but West Vancouver is the kind of community that might look at them (if founded) as very ungentlemanly and extract a high price. Perhaps our BC-based writers might have more detail or nuance on what is going on...
	07 10 29	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 204.187.16.106
A very interesting situation. Wilson has quit the Liberal caucus due to some electoral spending irregularities. Although he is adamant about his innocence and appears to be cooperating with the investigation fully, this could be bad news for his re-election chances. Under the assumption that he will be completely cleared, any perception that he was involved will not go over well with some of the electorate. This could make a big difference in a close race that is this riding. Another thing that won't be helping is loss of votes to the NDP and Green parties (whose vote collapsed in 2006).
	07 10 29	Ancastarian 72.38.158.55
Blair Wilson is finished. Today's election's Canada Scandal (http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2007/10/29/mp-resign.html) and his resignation from the Liberal Party all but signals his defeat. These days the accusation is nearly as bad as guilt. This little scandal is enough to drive this to the Conservative banner. Chalk up a Vancouver seat to the Tories.
	07 10 28	TC 75.154.91.166
Well Blair Wilson's dirty laundry exploded all over the pages of the October 28, 2007 edition of The Province and some of the allegations are pretty damning. Draw your own conclusions but I think his ship is sunk, Weston will defeat him if Wilson runs again.
	07 05 10	British Columbian 143.161.248.25
After losing by a slim margin in 2004 to incumbent John Reynolds, Wilson managed to win by a slim margin in the last election despite a Conservative victory nationally. Now Blair Wilson has the incumbency advantage, having established himself as an effective member of parliament. If a collapsed green and NDP vote helped Blair win in 2006, it will help him again. Clearly he represents the best strategic vote for anti-Conservative voters. The Liberals are taking steps to displace the NDP as the best viable alternative for Green voters. Meanwhile, the NDP is way down in BC; the latest Ipsos-Reid poll has them at almost half their 2006 support (15% vs. 28.6%), which is not exactly within the margin of error. Federal NDP votes don’t generally swing to the Tories. And the Conservatives are running the same candidate instead of opting for a more moderate, or at least a more popular one. Balir Wilson, on the other hand, resonates well in the riding as a fiscally-conservative Liberal. This will be another fairly close election, but not as close as the last two. The Liberals with Blair Wilson will hold WV-SC-S2SC.
	07 04 15	Steve L. 24.84.150.65
John Weston came reasonably close last time, within 1000 votes. but Blair Wilson proved to be a strong MP, on certain local issues (not the least of which is the Eagle Ridge Bluffs road thingy, which he spoke out against the BC Liberals on). John Weston will need to put up a very locally focused campaign here to improve his odds, and i'm not entirely certain if he's the kinda guy for such a thing. but then, it was close last time...
	07 03 24	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
I wouldn't call this one for the Tories yet. Blair Wilson does have strong support on the Sunshine Coast, never mind it was the Sea to Sky Corridor which put him over the top and this area despite being largely rural is very Liberal. It is much like the ski resorts in the Mountain West of the US which go Democrat despite being in strongly Republican states. West Vancouver certainly leans Tory, but if John Weston is chosen again, his hard right social views could hamper him there. He needs at least 55% in West Vancouver to guarantee taking this riding and I doubt he could get that. The other candidate from the former Progressive Conservatives probably has a better shot as his views are more reflective of the centre-right views in West Vancouver.
	07 03 21	western_tory 74.105.67.77
If there was one Liberal riding going Conservative this was it. The only reason the liberals won here in 2006 was the NDP and Green vote in a section of the riding collapsed and went Liberal. Furthermore, the Liberals perceived strong area is West Vancouver but the CPC increased there vote here in 2006. The Conservatives lost this riding in 2006 with more than they won it with in 2004. Current polling points to a CPC pickup.