Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon

Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Edwards, Clive

Hoskins, Jamie

Janzen, Diane

O'Donnell, Dorothy-Jean

O'Mahony, Gwen

Strahl, Mark

Hon. Chuck Strahl

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • cariboo-chilcotin (28/192 Polls)
  • dewdney-alouette (22/201 Polls)
  • fraser-valley (122/228 Polls)
  • okanagan-coquihalla (21/220 Polls)
  • west-vancouver-sunshine-coast (11/231 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 29 JackCox
    Let me explain my reasoning, Harper is coming into Abbotsford tomorrow, why the heck would he be spending time in Abbotsford of all places, which was once a safe Conservative seat? Translation: The Conservatives possibly might end up losing this seat. While Chuck Strahl may have been popular I have no idea if that will transfer over to his son.
    11 04 27 gdp
    You neglect in your analysis that we have a high-profile former city councilor running for the liberals. She is a social conservative and her strength may well split the vote on the right and see the NDP come up the middle. I still predict CON win in this yellow dog con riding, but with the orange crush and what I said above, won't be shocked with NDP win.
    11 04 08 R.O.
    With or without Chuck Strahl this is a really conservative area of BC , his personal popularity might of increased tory numbers a bit but they still would of won the riding. the fact his son is running only helps things even with minor nomination controversy . Mark Strahl is clearly experienced politically and make a good mp for the area. ndp are his main rivals here but even if they increased over 08 numbers they'd still be a ways back. sort of similar race to what we saw in Dauphin Swan River when it was vacant.
    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    Chuck Strahl may not be running again but the massive margins the Tories rack up in the Fraser Valley all but ensures they win this. The rest of the riding may be more competitive, but the majority of the people live in the Fraser Valley portion.
    11 03 29 binriso
    So Strahl quits and his son gets nominated just a few days later as the new nominee? That sounds greasy, but it shouldnt matter. The NDP can probably gain a significant amount of votes to solidify 2nd place but it will be hard to see the CPC go below 50 percent here.
    11 03 29 Globe and Mail
    From Globe and Mail today:
    The opening shots of the federal election campaign in B.C. came from Tories firing on Tories in seats held by Tory MPs, according to reports of regional newspapers across the province.
    Caustic exchanges between Tories provided strong headlines in local newspapers reporting on ridings held by long-time Conservative stalwarts Stockwell Day, Chuck Strahl and John Cummins, who announced on Mar. 12 they would not seek re-election.
    ‘Langbroek lambastes Tory nomination process’ was the headline in the Chilliwack Progress after former city councillor Casey Langbroek lost his chance to run for the nomination in the riding of Chilliwack Fraser Canyon. The newspaper reported that Mr. Langbroek was questioning his membership in the federal Conservative Party. Mr. Langbroek was considering a run for the nomination but was on a business trip in Ontario when he heard that the incumbent Mr. Strahl would not be running for re-election. ‘I don't think the powers that be ... are in touch with reality as far as the process is concerned, and the amount of time that needs to be taken to mount a serious campaign for the nomination,’ he told the newspaper. Mark Strahl, the son of the retiring Chuck Strahl, won the nomination at a hastily called meeting.
    09 09 09 A.S.
    The NDP (back when it was populist enough to be sufficiently Bible Belt-compatible) was competitive here 30 years ago, believe it or not--and there's what would be vestigial NDP strength in the riding's interior Fraser Canyon comet-tail, as well as a pocket of Whistler-spillover Liberal/Green strength all the way out in Pemberton (how'd *that* get into this riding?!?). But the only (very, very) faint likelihood of a switch from CPC now would be in the exceptional event of a byelection--and not to be a vulture or anything, but given Strahl's health, don't count out a byelection...
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Inconceivable that Strahl could lose a more than 20,000 vote lead here. Tory hold.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster