Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Parkdale-High Park


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:37:11
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Allen, Ian

Gershuny, Lorne

Jeftovic, Mark

Nash, Peggy

Parker, Terry

Phipps, Adam

Royer, Carol

Virani, Arif


Population/populations
(2011 census)

105103


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

792415.55%
2404647.20%
1675732.89%
16663.27%
Other 5521.08%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Parkdale-High Park
   (197/197 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Peggy Nash
7924
24046
16757
1666
Other552



 


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15 10 18 Jeff S
67.81.52.213
Peggy Nash is a good MP and a good candidate. But not good enough to overcome the lousy campaign run by her party's head.
15 10 18 John K.
99.233.219.56
Anyone who has driven/walked around in this riding knows this will go NDP. Signs (on private property) are about 15 to 1 for Peggy. No way this goes Liberal. This is a true local race, and with an obvious loss federally for the Conservatives, the people of P-HP will be voting for the best local representative.
15 10 17 JRW
76.68.79.60
An excellent MP in the person of Peggy Nash is going down to defeat mainly as a result of national trends. I predict NDP only holds one seat in 416 (Toronto - Danforth) and that the Cons hole none.
15 10 17 Brian L
50.101.232.16
The polls released today are a disaster for the NDP in Ontario and with their northern and Hamilton flanks holding up well, Toronto might well be a disaster for the NDP. All indications are that the NDP will lose all of their seats in Toronto except Toronto-Davenport (Jack Layton's old riding). It will be a worse showing in Toronto for the NDP than their showing in the 2014 provincial election - and that was bad.
15 10 15 poljunkiebc
24.85.198.4
Recently a tight seesaw history between the NDP and Liberals, it will probably remain so. Have to think the edge goes to the LPC though with their momentum.
15 10 16 Torontonian
192.133.45.2
Marco, both Akin and Harper in their news stories appeared to base their predictions of a tight race on the fact that Trudeau visited Parkdale, the Beaches and Davenport. I didn't see any new riding-specific polls or anything of that nature.
Leaders are supposed to try to move ridings into their column. The fact that he visited suggests the Liberals think they have a chance, that the result may be closer than last time, but they still need more voters to switch.
So, barring a further Liberal surge over the weekend, I still think the local factors lead to an NDP hold here.
15 10 15 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Torontonian, both David Akin & Tim Harper are reporting that Peggy Nash is potentially vulnerable here. They are reporters that know the Toronto ridings well. In fact, I think Akin now predicts Nash losing in his 'Predictionator'.
So unless Liberal support drops in the 416 over the next 3 or 4 days, Nash could be in for a closer fight than expected.
15 10 14 High Park Girl
174.94.133.162
In High Park Swansea(part of this riding) in 1995 during the Mike Harris wave, extremely popular NDP minister Elaine Ziemba, sister-in-law of the popular former MPP Ed Ziemba went down to defeat after calling in all chips. I forcast the same for Peggy Nash.
15 10 14 Torontonian
192.133.45.2
Parkdale / Davenport were the ONLY regions of the city that went with Olivia Chow in the mayoral elections.
Liberal hopes are being overblown for the 416 based on provincial modelling that ignores localized aspects. There is no way Peggy Nash loses here. NDP hold.
15 10 11 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Brian L makes a valid point that reflects what I said below a couple of months ago: Peggy Nash may not have quite as much personal popularity as is widely believed.
While I think Nash has some advantage as a result of name recognition & profile, she has had quite an up & down history in this riding. She has won twice, and lost twice. That tells me that she doesn't quite have the personal popularity of a Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester) who was able to win as an Independent a couple elections ago and who now appears set to win as a Liberal this year.
Nash, by contrast, tends to need a boost in regional fortunes in order to her over the top. She lost in 2004 to Sam Bulte, before finally winning in 2006. Then she lost in 2008 to Gerard Kennedy, and then was able to win it back in 2011, but with the help of the Layton Wave. So her federal record is LOSE, WIN, LOSE, WIN.
I would perhaps give Nash a small edge right now based on incumbency and the fact that she is not running against Gerard Kennedy this time. However, the other posters are correct that if the NDP numbers remain down from 2011 and the Liberals remain up, there's a possibility she could lose here.
15 10 11 Torontonian
65.93.143.171
There is danger in following 308.com's predictions, which take provincial trends and then try to apply them locally. They currently have the Libs at 67% in Parkdale. You just have to drive around the riding to see that is way off.
There is a clear variation in support for 905 vs 416 ridings, and the NDP will do much better in the 416 than in Ontario generally.
Nash wins by 5-10,000.
15 10 13 Monkey Cheese
99.242.194.247
This is another riding that needs to be moved into either the TCTC category or Liberal gain category. As of today (October 13), 308 is giving the Liberals a 78% chance of taking this riding. Peggy Nash may be the incumbent, but she has lost three times and won in the Layton wave. This is traditional Liberal territory that they should take back this time.
15 10 10 Sam
99.233.102.217
Peggy is having a difficult time. Arif Virani has been canvassing for two years (including his nomination) and has been doing it full time since July 1st. He is incredibly intelligent, has a personality and is a great debater.
His personal story is also something a lot of progressive are impressed with.
He's a great candidate and Peggy Nash probably didn't expect a candidate to campaign as hard as Arif has. She was too visible outside of the community and may have relied too much on her name.
Let's remember. Peggy has lost three elections.
This will be a very close riding and will reflect the NDP's missteps during this election, losing this will be an upset but Arif would have earned it.
15 10 10 Brian L
174.93.33.91
While some have stated that Peggy Nash is personally popular in the riding, I just don't buy it. I believe the fact that she won the last time was more because of the Liberal vote collapse and with Jack Layton as leader of the NDP rather than anything Peggy Nash had to offer.
This time around, the Liberal vote has resurfaced and the Conservative vote (not that it was much in this riding, anyway) has collapsed and the beneficiaries of that will be the Arif Villani rather than Peggy Nash. Moreover, the NDP vote is in the process of collapsing in Ontario as well as in Quebec.
15 10 11 DSR
213.104.176.154
I think it is now time to move this riding to TCTC. 308 are already projecting this as a Liberal pick-up. The Libs are continuing to gain ground against the NDP and last weak a NDP operative admitted to the press that they were facing very strong challenges in both PHP and Davenport.
15 10 09 Cornelius Talmidge
206.248.172.136
I was thinking this would go NDP again as it *seemed* like Peggy Nash was well entrenched – but I'm seeing this as TCTC now. I recently met Arif and, unlike Gerrard Kennedy, he was extremely likeable *and* very intelligent. He was happy and willing to take time to discuss deeper issues and unlike almost all other candidates I've met over the years he didn't mind engaging in a little politically philosophical discussion rather than ramming a platform down my gullet.
If I had had any second thoughts before meeting him, he nailed it.
15 10 07 mediaglyphic
99.233.100.39
this riding has swung back and forth. Last time Peggy Nash beat Gerard Kennedy. I think this time the Liberals have a good chance. Arif (Liberal Candidate) seems to have some charisma and showed up at our street festival. Still it will be close, provincially Cheri Di Novo beat a strong candidate Nancy Leblanc, but i think Arif has more charisma than Nancy who seems to have turned off some people in her door to door campaign.
15 10 04 CTK
99.252.194.8
I went to visit my fiancée's grandmother in the riding today who lives in the riding. I drove through a number of other Toronto area-ridings on the way such as Davenport, and in those ridings I saw roughly equal number of NDP and Liberal signs on residential properties (possibly slightly more NDP) with many less for the greens and conservatives. Once I reached this riding though, it was at least five NDP signs to every sign for all other parties combined. This could have just been the streets I drove down, but I even missed my street and had to double back down some crazy one way streets, and every street I went down it was same sea of orange signs. Based on this, I would be amazed if Nash didn't win this riding. It's especially noticeable because in Davenport and the other ridings I passed through it was a game of 'see if you can spot a conservative sign on this street' and once you get to High Park it was 'see if you can spot a non-NDP sign on this street.'
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
23.91.128.216
For those who don't know, I ran an election projection website in 2011. I used math, like 308 and 2C2C, to project each riding. And among those who tried to do this, I was the most accurate, and 308, the least accurate.
Despite that, a few days ago, I too had Peggy Nash losing her seat. Then, something happened.
See, when I see a riding that's fishy, I investigate, and I did that. What I discovered was that there were a few sub-regional polls of Ontario showing just Toronto (416) and the 905 in some cases. In these polls, the Liberals were doing far worse in Toronto and far better in the 905 then the pure math suggested they should.
In fact, all the riding polls showed the same thing, the Liberals underperforming in the 416 and overperforming in the 905.
As such I concluded that a simple province-wide swing was not accurate in Ontario and divided Ontario into sub-regions. Once I did that, suddenly the mathematical projections started matching the riding polls very well.
And the conclusion?
Based on current polls, Nash is ahead by 15 points.
15 09 28 Brian L
174.93.33.91
This riding is a lot closer than many people believe. Threehundredeight.com has shown that in the last week, the riding has fluctuated from NDP to Liberal with each party predicted to win 3 times each.
LISPOP is showing the riding as 'leaning NDP' which is hardly an full-rung endorsement of Peggy Nash to be the winner.
And 'Too Close to Call' is also showing more wins for the Liberals over a period than for the New Democrat.
Sorry, but with the NDP starting to show a decline both nationally and in Ontario, this riding should be a 'toss up' rather than predicted as a win for the NDP.
15 09 11 MC
99.234.182.123
How do you think the results will matter given that the Conservatives are a 'no-show'. Ian Allen is not running a campaign whatsoever. No office, no signs, no Facebook page. I'm a (lonely) Harper supporter but I'm not going to vote for someone who isn't even going to bother to show his face. Those 7000 Tory votes from 2011 are going to go somewhere.
15 09 10 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
For the first time this election, projection sites like 308 are now showing Parkdale-High Park as leaning Liberal (63% chance) so this does reflect the NDP dip and Liberal increase in Ontario over the past month.
However, one of the purposes of sites like Election Prediction Project is to look at ridings from other perspectives than just the purely mathematical projections, otherwise this site would just become a bunch of numbers like an ordinary seat projector.
That's why here we take into account local factors such as incumbency, name recognition, community factors and so forth. While on paper this riding is leaning Liberal based on provincial numbers, Nash may still be in the stronger position based on her incumbency and other strengths.
Still, the fact that Nash has been beaten in the past by Gerard Kennedy in 2008 & Sarmite Bulte in 2004 means that she has been vulnerable in the past when faced with a strong opponent like Kennedy in 08 or strong Liberal numbers as in 04. Nash is a strong candidate, but her Lose/Win/Lose/Win history here shows she is also somewhat dependent on provincial trends. Something to keep an eye on.
15 09 09 Nick M.
207.228.78.224
This is one of those highly targeted ridings by the NDP during bad times. Brian L, this riding does not fall into the same formula of looking at the provincial polls and cross correlate it to the riding. Fort York Spadina might because of the condo crowd. 905 definitely does.
See what the NDP got for Ontario vote in 2006, and Peggy won that.
15 09 10 Nick M.
207.228.78.224
This riding isn't immune to the Provincial polls, but a 15% swing in provincial polls would result in 7 percent swing here.
Too many volunteers, get out the Vote is strong for NDP. This will be NDP.
15 09 09 Brian L
174.93.33.91
This is another riding where the prediction doesn't match the data.
The polls have consistently shown the NDP share of the vote going down in Ontario and the predictive models are now showing the Liberal as having the better than even chance of winning the riding.
Nash has won when the Liberals do badly, but the Liberals are on the rise in Ontario and Toronto and that could toss Nash back to the street, despite her popularity. It happened in the last election when voters tossed Gerard Kennedy, the popular member for Nash and before that when Nash was tossed in favour of Kennedy.
This riding should be in the 'Too Close' column.
15 09 04 Tony Ducey
71.7.240.66
Nash will win this easily. She's a minister in a Mulcair government.
15 08 29 Mark
76.10.162.122
Toronto urban voters love to turn the table on NDP sanctimony while still getting to vote Liberal. Virani is a nobody, but now he's got a cause - sticking the Liberal's 'left wing' (wink!wink!) deficit plan to Parliament's foremost left wing economist! Peggy Nash will hang on, but only just.
15 08 20 Sam
99.234.100.151
She is high profile and strong but never underestimate an underdog who has roots in the community.
I say TCTC. It will be a close election. I don't think the NDP will see the same numbers here as they did in 2011 but if Arif Virani or Peggy Nash win... it will be tight.
15 08 17 Poll predictor
108.180.231.118
Agreed, if Gerard Kennedy was running this time here I think this would be very entertaining to watch as his profile is definitely a match for Peggy Nash's. That being said Peggy will in all likelihood, barring a total NDP meltdown will be going back to Ottawa.
15 08 16 Swellow
67.68.60.69
NDP is up and no Gerrard Kennedy. Peggy Nash is going to be re elected.
15 07 20 Dr Bear
66.49.146.118
A few months ago I would have argued TCTC. Not anymore. When there's talk of an NDP government, seats like this will not flip to someone else.
15 07 10 AT
69.165.152.233
With Liberal polling numbers flat and still going down, I don't see this being a very difficult seat for the NDP to hold. Peggy is very visible in the NDP opposition, definitely a cabinet minister in waiting and is so passionate about the needs of this riding.
15 07 01 HFoster
192.0.138.72
Peggy Nash has won and lost this riding before, but this time she will be re-elected. She is a high profile NDP front bencher, and has been a strong voice for Parkdale-High Park. There have been no alterations to the map of the riding, and will be the same Parkdale-High Park Nash ran in in 2011. The Liberals do not have a high profile Gerard Kennedy-esque candidate running this time, so Nash should have no trouble holding.
15 06 10 seasaw
99.225.91.198
I'd give the Liberals a slight edge at the present time. Peggy Nash's been a good MP, but the Liberals have a strong candidate, that in addition to the fact that the riding has a strong Liberal organization is enough to put them on top. Things may change in the future though.
15 05 31 A.S.
99.233.100.50
Never mind Kennedy and Bulte; P-HP's *real* defining federal Grit legacy over the past half century has been that of Polish Liberalism a la Stan Haidasz and Jesse Flis; but with gentrification, the dying-off & dispersal of the Polish power base, and the collapse of the PCs, the one-time eternal third-place factor of the NDP enterprisingly stepped into the breach and, well, that's how we got to where we are today, with Peggy Nash now the 'senior' (with a hiccup) member of the Toronto caucus. Though there's come to be a tendency to overstate the raw strength of the NDP hereabouts; whether though making an overly big deal out of Cheri DiNovo surviving the provincial rout, or through making misleading claims about Olivia Chow 'winning' here mayorally (actually, while she won Ward 14, that victory was cancelled out on behalf of John Tory in Ward 13). So, I remain oh so slightly reserved about Peggy Nash's safety--then again, in the early running t/w 2011, I held to the 'now that Gerard Kennedy's conquered Nash, no way would he lose a rematch' common wisdom. So, one never knows...
15 04 23 Docere
50.101.245.47
Parkdale-High Park is represented by the NDP at all levels of government and the NDP has quite a formidable machine here. Peggy Nash is also a high profile MP and faces a very low profile Liberal opponent this time.
15 04 13 RC
38.99.129.1
I don't know how much you can extrapolate from the provincial election. A large component of the ONDP's squeaker win in this seat was, in fact, the local MPP, Cheri DiNovo. She is a dynamo who, upon sensing that Horwath's Ford Nation-style campaign wasn't working in urban Toronto, smartly campaigned on issues of importance to her riding. A more generic or less politically astute ONDPer probably would not have won this seat given what happened to the ONDP in the other city ridings. If the Liberals are headed for government, I wouldn't necessarily assume that DiNovo's win means the federal NDP will hang on in Parkdale-High Park regardless.
That being said, Nash herself is a vocal and very active front bench NDPer, and she clearly has a strong local organization behind her. She also has a far lower-profile Liberal opponent than Gerard Kennedy this time out.
I suspect that Nash wins if the Liberals are not looking like they can form at least a minority government. If the Liberals are headed for victory (especially with a majority), I am not convinced she can hang on. I'll wait and see.
15 04 05 MGK
64.229.244.244
The NDP even held onto this in the provincial election, despite overwhelming disenchantment with Andrea Horwath in Toronto. The federal NDP should not experience a comparable meltdown, especially with a front-bench MP in Peggy Nash.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
I wouldn't be so quick to call this one. It will probably stay NDP, but the Liberals are strong in the High Park area as well as this a progressive more than NDP or Liberal riding thus if the progressive vote coalesces around any particular party it could favour them.
15 03 24 JC
69.165.234.184
Peggy Nash has been a good constituency MP but if it looks like the Liberals are going to form government expect her to go down in defeat.
15 03 24 Craig Hubley
71.7.138.32
Peggy Nash was a prominent NDP leadership candidate and possible future leader. She inherited the David Miller organization from his Council days and built on it during the Orange Crush, so I'm predicting a hold here. Though one far less certain than those closer downtown.
Greens are willing to vote for Nash even if they don't get vote swaps for it, that's an important edge in downtown Toronto. Liberals don't seem to find her offensive either. Just no value for Trudeau in pushing hard for this seat when the same effort would yield half a dozen seats at direct cost to Conservatives in the suburbs.
15 03 24 ML
69.77.168.131
I am leaning towards the NDP in PHP. Peggy Nash has a national profile and will be running against a low profile Liberal candidate. The Liberals certainly shouldn't be discounted - their fortunes are on the up in Toronto, and they have held this riding before under Gerard Kennedy and Sarmite Bulte. But the NDP seems to have a strong ground game in this riding, as seen in the last provincial election where they miraculously eked out a win despite the ONDP's nosedive in Toronto. That ground game could make the difference on E-day.



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