Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2009/10

Parkdale-High Park


Prediction Changed
2009-08-23 21:34:16
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Incumbent:
Gerard Kennedy

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • parkdale-high-park (186/189 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    10 02 13 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Considering the fact Peggy Nash the former ndp mp for the riding from 06-08 has got the ndp nomination for the next election this one might not be as easy a hold for the liberals as they though. although i'd still say Gerard Kennedy has the advantage here but Peggy Nash has ran here 3 times before so she'd be experienced at campaigning in the riding and not an easy candidate to beat at all. but i don't know as she had the incumbent advantage last time and lost by a couple thousand votes in the end. either way i'm not ready to make a solid prediction for this one yet as both the liberals and ndp are running strong candidates in this riding and each has won the riding in recent years.
    10 02 11 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.68
    There will be a re-match in this riding between MP Gerard Kennedy and former MP Peggy Nash. The NDP has re-nominated Nash to be their candidate in the next federal election.
    Because Liberal support is higher than NDP support in Toronto, and because Kennedy won by a decent margin last time and is now the incumbent, he has the advantage. He was able to win by several thousand votes last time in what was supposed to be a much closer race.
    The one challenge Kennedy might face is that since his election as an MP, he has not been as high-profile as some people thought he would be, and this is the criticism he will have to face from his opponents in the next election. Perhaps it is because of his rivalry with Ignatieff that has caused Ignatieff to keep him on the backbenches, but whatever the reason, Kennedy may face some questions for being out of view for a while.
    Other than that, Kennedy has the edge.
    09 09 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.88.173.222
    In the '08 electionprediction-go-round, He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named (and all his clones) went off time and again on how Kennedy was yesterday's man. Well Kennedy defeated Nash by quite a margin (in '08 Liberal circles). Now this race has gotten quite dull. Maybe in the NDP's future this could be theirs again. Not this time.
    09 09 01 MF
    70.52.182.217
    Gerard Kennedy was able to take this in spite of being personally responsible for sticking the Liberals with Dion. He will almost certainly be back, even if Iggy doesn't care for him that much.
    09 08 31 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    Ultimately, Peggy Nash was up against a 500-pound gorilla, even if there were murmurs (even among certain Liberal partisans, including I'm Always Right and his team of sockpuppets last EPP goaround) of her being a gorilla-slayer t/w the end. If there's any lasting aftereffect of the Nash interlude and what led up to (or, provincially, paralleled) it, it's that NDP's now enshrined--maybe--as the official permaopposition in P-HP. But GK's still too much the inherent powerhouse; still, as long as Cheri DiNovo rules his former provincial roost, don't expect landslide free rides. Since I more or less correctly predicted last time that Kennedy vs Nash would be more of a Layton-Mills type of race, this one ought to be more of a Layton-Coyne/Lang affair by extension.
    09 08 29 Insider
    99.224.137.163
    High profile several years ago, Kennedy has become an invisible man on the national scene since winning this riding but don't expect him to lose next time unless a superstar candidate runs against him or he does something worthy of a scandal. I wouldn't expect either.
    09 08 23 Observer
    89.180.69.237
    Peggy Nash was one of the only 2 incumbent NDP MP's to get defeated in 2008. Peggy was very popular and even that didn't help her. Liberal hold.



    Navigate to Canada 2009/10 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2009/10
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2009 - Email Webmaster