08 05 03	Mikey G 207.112.39.101
I live in this riding and I think that Peggy Nash is in trouble. Gerard has far more name recognition, is a left of centre Liberal and has been the local MPP previously. I have seen him canvassing regularly and he has come to my door once.
	08 04 03	Doug The Slug 192.30.202.22
There was a column by Slinger in the Toronto Star this week about how Gerard Kennedy has fallen off the face of the earth and right now is only remembered as the guy who handed the Liberal leadership to Dion. I believe the NDP are going to lose a number of seats in the next election but that Peggy Nash is going to pull one of the biggest upsets of election night when she hangs on and defeats Kennedy.
	08 03 22	99.233.147.209
Looks like the NDP are out in full force with their wishful predictions. They're hoping Kennedy's team will fall apart, but they don't understand the bond and dedication between Kennedy and his supporters. They also don't appreciate how cunning Gerard Kennedy is. And the recent bi-elections should be a reality check for the NDP. They did terrible in Toronto. How do they think they're going to beat Gerard Kennedy, a sure bet for a Cabinet post in a Liberal government and a potential future Prime Minister with the low profile Peggy Nash? Don't forget, Gerard Kennedy has a proven ability to attract NDP voters. He will win with little trouble.
	08 03 15	Curley, Larry and Moe 24.244.244.114
All three of us have heard through our political connections that Gerard Kennedy is in big trouble in Parkdale-High Park. Kennedy has been tied up trying to pay off his leadership debt so there's no money for a campaign in this riding. There have also been some key Kennedy supporters who've walked away from him in the last six months. Peggy Nash on the other hand has developed a strong campaign with the help of the local MPP Di Novo. Their combined forces are stronger than anything Kennedy can whip up. Public service unions have worked hard to put money in the bank for Nash so she can run a full out campaign. Kennedy is finished in politics after hold so much promise. This riding stays NDP.
	08 03 03	24.81.18.126
Interesting race - an NDP oasis in a Liberal stronghold. This will be very hard fought, and Gerard Kennedy definitely brings his big Liberal war machine to this campaign, being a leadership contender and all. Certainly, the NDP will try to match this organization by pouring resources into this riding. Right now, I'm going make a prediction that Peggy Nash will come out on top because she is the incumbent and has been doing a solid job. Plus, Liberal momentum is in the swamp.
	08 02 28	I'm Always Right 69.49.38.109
Another bad week for fading Gerard Kennedy. No election this spring and it's looking more and more like there won't be one until October, 2009. With every day, Kennedy becomes less of a figure in this riding and Peggy Nash builds up her profile and campaign team. Parkdale-High Park will be a close race but Nash is going to finish Kennedy for good.
	08 02 26	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
As much as I find the NDP annoying, I have to say they are going to surprise people with how well they do in the next election. Surprise number one will be when Peggy Nash defeats the former golden boy Gerard Kennedy. This will be the kind of down and dirty campaign the NDP typically win in Toronto. A year ago most people would have simply handed this riding to Kennedy but something has clearly gone wrong for Gerard as he seems to have dropped off the face of the earth. I've heard Kennedy is no longer seen as the ‘king maker’ by the Dion team and they've dropped him like a hot potato. Nash is a well known MP who works hard for her riding. She'll have the best team the Jack Layton can put together. This election is personal for the NDP because they always felt a lefty like Kennedy should have joined their party and instead was a traitor signing up with the Liberals. They want to beat Kennedy bad and will get their wish. I predict Nash wins by 1,000 votes.
	08 02 19	City Slicker 192.30.202.20
Jack Layton and the NDP are going to lose seats in the April election. No question about that. This is not going to be one of them. Gerard Kennedy doesn't get it yet but he's washed up in politics. Since helping Dion win the leadership, Kennedy has been dumped from all central political influence in the Liberal Party because he doesn't play well with others. Anyone who worked with him at Queen's Park would understand this happening. There are a lot of Liberals that would be fine with Kennedy going down in Parkdale so they won't have to put up with him any more. Nash on the other hand is a team player and well liked by the party and caucus. The NDP, including Layton know they have a real shot at holding this seat and will pour everything they have into helping Nash hang on. In the end, Nash wins Kennedy loses and goes back to running the Daily Bread Food Bank where he's needed and belongs.
	08 02 09	Quick Draw 69.49.33.94
A. Lewis has got to be kidding when he thinks Dion will be a help to Kennedy and Layton won't be able to help Nash??? Come on. Dion is so bad his party will keep him under wraps during the campaign that you won't see him much. Layton on the other hand is a hero in Toronto. He'll drop by this riding every week of the campaign to make sure Nash hangs on. With nothing going on at Queen's Park, DiNovo will have lots of free time to spend knocking on doors with Nash. Kennedy is yesterday's news. He's done and Nash will hold this riding for Layton. It won't be close.
	08 02 06	A. Lewis 142.177.99.116
The convention is forgotten, as is the deal with Dion. Dion will back Kennedy in the next leadership convention, yes, but if Dion wins the next election that won't be for many years, and if Dion loses the next election his endorsement won't count for squat. Also many Dion supporters liked his hardline stance on Green issues and his deal with Elizabeth May too, and Kennedy is the least Green of any of the Liberal leadership contenders. He was the only one not to mention the need to build a green economy that sells products that the energy-starved and materials-starved rest of the world can buy and use. Of course, they're not going to buy Dodge Hemis or other NDP products from the CAW either, and Peggy Nash is also among the least green of the NDPers. So neither of them will pick up a lot of Green votes, as if that matters. Far more important is that Kennedy will have Dion's personal help and the city of Toronto knows damn well that Jack Layton, who could not even win the Mayor's office, is not going to unseat Harper. Dion will, and so any ABC voter in Toronto must look to him sympathetically as their desired PM.
	08 02 07	I'm Always Right 165.21.28.117
I disagree with the Nash/Minna win and Kennedy/Churley lose analysis. Nash hasn’t really added much bench strength to the NDP caucus in the last two years. Shrill as Churley may be (and some would argue Minna is up there on that count), she does know how to spin the media and make herself heard. Plus, Layton owes Churley a lot from the leadership race. I wouldn’t be surprised if the NDP write this riding off in light of Kennedy’s candidacy, and shift their efforts to shore up Chow and Churley, both closer to Layton than Nash and in tight races.
	08 02 05	I'm Always Right 192.30.202.19
It's funny how AS starts out all his posts upset with me but in the end agrees with what I'm predicting. As AS said last time, it makes sense that Minna wins and Kennedy loses in 2009. Peggy Nash is an incumbent who's done well in Ottawa while Marilyn Churley is simply a shrill has been who will lose again. As it looks more and more like my prediction of a 2009 election it means as I said, years of sitting out of politics for Kennedy. His profile is zero right now and I'm hearing the once mighty Kennedy campaign team has faded into nothing. Nash with the help of rising star DiNovo is going to hang on and beat Kennedy in the fall of 2009.
	08 02 04	K 99.233.190.85
With a strong lefty liberal and a strong NDP candidate (both ideologically similar)fighting it out for the riding's lefty vote, and with a strong, minority, woman candidate (which plays out well in a lefty riding like this)for the conservatives, I think there is a great possibility for this to become a three way race. If Dion continues to act the way he is now on the campaign trail, Kennedy's star will fade fast, and any red tories that were with him will jump ship to the conservative candidate. Especially in the more affluent and more conservative western part of the riding, we'll see this alot, because these people would never vote NDP. This will be a three-way race. That would be interesting: a conservative representing one of Canada's most left-wing ridings.
	08 01 26	A.S. 99.233.96.153
I'm Always Right: first of all, you didn't just predict a Minna victory BEY, you predicted a *10,000 vote* Minna victory--look, however ‘impossible’ a federal NDP victory is there, for that particular riding that's an obese margin by anything other than AudreyAlexa standards, and all the more so if it's Marilyn Churley running again rather than some Dipper no-name. And secondly, maybe Cheri DiNovo has proven PHP to be fertile provincial NDP ground over two elections, but Michael Prue's has proven likewise in BEY over *three* elections, and following in the footsteps of Frances Lankin, et al--provincially, the record happens to be *stronger* there. (Provincial and federal are different things, of course; but still, on balance between the two seats it's more of a kind of parity than polarity.) Really, you've got to face it--regardless of individual candidate merits, a 10,000 Liberal margin in BEY would bespeak a broader Liberalward momentum that'd all but certainly drag PHP into the ‘win’ column with it, regardless of any bloom off the Gerard Kennedy rose. The only reason why it'd be otherwise is if the NDP *totally* throws BEY on behalf of a Hail-Mary-pass effort to save Peggy Nash's (and maybe even Olivia Chow's, and in a worst-case scenario toss in Jack Layton as well) hide (cf. Layton winning + Chow losing in '04--only cubed). Now, I'm Always Right, if it were a simple Minna win + Kennedy loss prediction--that doesn't ‘confuse’ me, it does indeed make perfect sense. It's the *scale* you're offering that doesn't make sense--at least, it wouldn't make sense for anyone who isn't a pinheaded Minna toady with a serious hate-on for Gerard Kennedy...
	08 01 20	PY 70.51.144.201
Well, the arts community won't need to worry about Sam Bulte staying around; I've read that she might take a stab at the Liberal nomination in Don Valley West. And there's nothing definitive to say that Kennedy's a forgotten or misguided man. It'll be a battle of the machines: the combined resources at the disposal of Kennedy versus those for Nash. But the X-factor could be Cheri DiNovo; I've heard she could be touted as interim leader should Howard Hampton resign. If that becomes the case, then it could be a plus for Nash and possibly render this race TCTC. If not, DiNovo's presence will be neutralized and Kennedy will win.
	08 01 12	I'm Always Right 69.49.38.74
A.S. seems confused that I can predict a Minna win and a loss by Kennedy in Parkdale High Park. It's really simple if you take a minute and think about it. The NDP always think they're going to beat Maria Minna but the make up of her riding makes that impossible. Just not enough Dipper voters there. Parkdale - High Park is much more fertile ground for the NDP as Cheri Di Novo has proved in two elections and Peggy Nash showed last time. I'm predicting an NDP hold here because the shine is now off former golden boy Kennedy and with Di Novo's help, Nash will beat Kennedy in a close race. Makes perfect sense if you REALLY understand this stuff.
	07 12 16	A.S. 99.233.96.153
‘I'm Always Right’, something's positively bizarre here. You're claiming that Maria Minna's gonna win by a whopping 10,000 votes in BEY, yet the NDP's gonna *hold* PHP versus none other but The Gerard? That might be the most bipolar thing I've *ever* encountered in EPP...
	07 12 08	I'm Always Right 69.49.38.85
I don't think there's going to be an election until the clock runs out in October, 2009. By then the once golden boy, Gerard Kennedy will have been out of public office for three and a half years. The last time Kennedy had his name on a ballot in this riding was October 2003. By the time 2009 rolls around that will be a long 6 years. This is forever in this business and Kennedy will have a tough time trying to make a comeback. Provincial MPP DiNovo is very popular in this riding and will team up with Peggy Nash to campaign hard against the fading image of Kennedy. The other problem for Kennedy as other have mentioned is that Dion is nothing more than a national punchline. Let's not forget that it was Kennedy to handed the leadership to Dion at the convention. Doesn't say much for Gerard's judgement. In the end, the weight of being out of public office for too long and trying to carry a lame duck leader will be too much for Kennedy. I say Nash wins by 1800 votes and Kennedy leaves politics for good.
	07 11 09	seasaw 99.225.19.235
Up until a month ago, I would've said Kennedy in a landslide. The more Dion abstains from voting, the more Dion makes careless remarks ( GST hike ), the better the NDP chances get. Dion so far has made Mcguinty of '99 look very good & it's true Kennedy did take this riding by a landslide in '99 under McGuinty, but at that time he was seen as McGuinty's heir apparent. Many people thought that McGuinty'll get the boot after '99 election and Kennedy'll replace him. No such luck this time, Kennedy's the reason Dion is the leader and the more Dion screws up the worse it looks for Kennedy.
	07 11 04	Jake 74.210.82.135
This one's going to Kennedy. People in the area loved him as their MPP and he has proven himself as both an oppositon critic and minister. Nash's victory last time around wasn't by a wide margin against a less then inspiring candidate. Kennedy has a powerful organization behind him and will have strong support from the Liberal Party.
	07 10 14	King of Kensington 76.64.29.203
Given how well Cheri DiNovo did in the provincial election, I'd say this riding is become more and more NDP-friendly. Peggy Nash is also a very strong MP. Given the weakness of the Dion Liberals, I'd say Gerard Kennedy's chances of taking the riding back for the Liberals have diminished greatly.
	07 10 11	DL 38.99.136.242
The signs are piling up that Peggy Nash can look forward to holding on here. In the Ontario election not only did Cheri DiNovo get re-elected but her margin of victory was double what it was in the byelection. This means that in the more than four years since Gerard Kennedy last won an election here, the NDP has won two provincial votes and a federal vote. As the sand flows through the thin part of the hourglass, days turn into weeks turn into months turn into years and with each passing day Gerard Kennedy becomes a vague memory from the distant past and is out of the public eye, while Peggy Nash sets down deeper and deeper roots as an incumbent. By the next election, Kennedy's biggest claim to fame is that he was singularly responsible for foisting Stephane Dion upon the federal Liberals - and that's not a good thing.
	07 10 05	MGK 74.12.76.142
I don't think the Nash and diNovo victories last year were aberrations; I think the riding is becoming more NDP, and Peggy Nash remains a strong candidate. But Kennedy is an even stronger one -- possibly the only person who can retake the riding for the Liberals.
	07 09 09	Nick J Boragina 74.14.16.208
I wont argue the NDP does not have a strong base here, because they do, but the fact remains that the party only just edged out the Liberal in the last election, a relative unknown although an incumbent. Now the candidate for the Liberals has a high rank and high know-ability, he is also popular with the left of the party and the left wing of the electorate. I really don’t see the NDP being able to hold on in the face of such strong competition.
	07 08 31	J Porter 198.103.172.9
As of today one has to ask 'how committed is Gerard Kennedy to running in the next election'? He just signed a one year teaching contract that involves giving regular lectures and conducting research among other duties. The press release states that for now Kennedy will remain a Special Advisor to Dion and a nominated candidate for the riding of P-HP, but we will have to watch for further updates on this. With all opposition parties starting to indicate they will bring the government down this fall, the timing is very strange for Kennedy to be finding employment elsewhere.
	07 06 06	binriso 156.34.212.113
Oh man, Kennedy is going to crush Nash. Won?t even be close. He?s a left leaning Liberal and has done a great deal of work to help the homeless. He could easily be Liberal Leader now too and you don?t get much more high profile than him thanks to the convention. Despite Nash being the champion of minimum wage increase and so on, she'll be looking for a new job soon.
	07 05 04	Seamus 206.130.173.39
Parkdale-High Park has seen in a seismic shift in the last 2 years. Cheri Di Novo, a relative unknown, easily beat a high profile local City Councillor, Sylvia Watson to replace Kennedy. Nash beat Sam Bulte because she has a crack team and she better reflects the new demographic profile of Parkdale-High Park. Municipally, NDPer and enviro activist Gord Perks won Ward 14, the formerly rock solid Liberal base within the federal/provincial riding, beating all Liberal-comers (see Ted Lojko and Dilorice South, Kennedy's choice). In fact, New Democrat Rowena Santos finished 2nd. A relative unknown rookie challenger and New Democrat, Greg Hamara, fared well against Liberal Councillor Bill Saundercook in Ward 13 in the Junction/High Park/Swansea/Bloor West Village portion of the riding. Also, as Dion goes, so does Kennedy. Dion is polling badly on the question of leadership. Kennedy better spend every moment in this riding if expects to have a chance to unseat Nash.
	07 04 29	Andrew Cox 74.120.86.22
Liberal Pick-up. Reasons. 1) Peggy Nash won Parkdale-High Park for the NDP by a little more than 2,000 votes in the 2006 tilt. In the election before that, she lost by a little more than 3,000. In her two elections, she received the vote of between 16,000 and 20,000 people. 2) Gerard Kennedy won the same seat for the provincial Liberals by almost 17,000 votes in 2003. In 1999, he won by more than 10,000. In his two elections, he received the vote of around 23,000 people. 3) Kennedy routinely received 23,000 people's votes in this riding, regardless of whether the general election campaign was won or lost by his party. That is significantly more than the 20,000 Nash received under very good conditions. 4) Nash has the power of incumbency, but Kennedy has a machine behind him that makes that incumbency advantage significantly less potent.
	07 04 26	R J Anderson 142.177.114.243
Kennedy. The Dion-May deal gives the Liberals just enough extra cachet over the NDP that a thousand votes or so may shift from Green or NDP to Liberal, and Peggy Nash is not known for being a champion of green-ness.
	07 04 25	Polistudent 74.101.89.148
Anyone predicting Peggy in this race are out to lunch! It's either TCTC or Liberal for sure. I don't think that the NDP can hold this against GK. If anyone else was running for the liberals this would stay NDP but not with GK.
	07 04 25	Incisive Logic 143.161.248.25
In the 2003 Ontario Provincal Election Gerard Kennedy won 57.8% of the vote, while the NDP came third with 15.8% of the vote. Following his resignation, the Ontario Liberal party lost the seat in the provincial by-election to the NDP, which nearly doubled its vote. Granted, by-elections often have unusual results, they usually have much lower turnout, and despite this the NDP almost doubled their vote. Gerard Kennedy clearly drew significant support from left-leaning voters, some of whom he can count on for support again in the federal election. Last Federal election in the same jurisdiction, Peggy Nash won a close race in the riding amid conflict of interest scandals surrounding the incumbent Liberal. I agree that star power isn't always enough to win, but it often is. Take for example the back-to-back Liberal victories in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. Despite switching parties, Keith Martin managed to win this riding for the party that shoul have come third. Gerard Kennedy is not just a star candidate because he ran for Liberal leadership. He is also a very popular politician in the riding, and is well known for his work with the Toronto food bank. Although not the federal incumbent, Gerard Kennedy has represented this riding longer than Peggy Nash, and easily has more name recognition. Gerard Kennedy appeals to Liberal voters, as well as left-leaning voters. The support for the NDP in the last federal election is neither solid support for the NDP, nor for Peggy Nash. And the NDP really isn't surging ahead in the polls either. The Liberals take this one back no problem.
	07 04 08	PY 70.51.133.194
I doubt very much that Nash will come out unscathed this time. Kennedy's name carries far too much weight and probably more so since the Liberal leadership race ended. Given that Sam Bulte made a critical error about her symposium at the Drake Hotel during the last campaign, I haven't heard anything more from Nash about the digital copyright issue. And as far as I know, she's laid claim to Gwyn Morgan (former CEO of EnCana) not being named as the chair of the Public Appointments Commission even though I felt it was a forgone conclusion that he wouldn't get the job. He may not be Liberal leader, but Kennedy might prove to be a go-to guy for Dion. I'm ready to write Nash off.
	07 04 07	Stevo 74.102.113.20
Peggy Nash may have been uttering a few words unfit for a child's ears when she heard Gerard Kennedy would be taking her on. Given her slim victory last election in the face of a dreadful Liberal campaign, there is almost no chance that she can stave off a challenge from somebody as experienced and high-calibre as Mr. Kennedy. As for the Tories, they will shed no tears at Peggy's defeat - much bitterness from her grilling of Harper prospective appointee Gwyn Morgan last year. This may be one of the few Liberal-NDP races where the Tories will be cheering on the Liberals instead of the NDP.
	07 04 03	Daniel 156.34.85.213
Parkdale-High Park isn't as big a slam-dunk for Kennedy as many of you seem to think it is. I would give him the edge, yes, but this will be a race, not a coronation. Besides, star power doesn't count for everything; the ?beloved? mayor Glen Murray lost in an already-Liberal riding when he ran in Winnipeg, while the ?media darling? Belinda Stronach only won her riding by a few hundred votes when she first ran in 2004 - and neither of those people were facing incumbents. If the Kennedy team takes the attitude that many of the people on this site seem to already have (with regards to this race), Kennedy just might end up with egg on his face when election night rolls around.
	07 04 03	R.D. 12.4.238.25
I don't understand how you can call for the defeat of any incumbent M.P. this early, when we don't even know when the next election is going to be. Gerard Kennedy is a wicked strong candidate for sure, but Peggy Nash is no slouch and we have no idea what the dynamics of the race will be, how the national campaigns will perform, whenever the election occurs. TCTC.
	07 03 31	A.S. 74.99.222.209
It would appear that Peggy Nash is in trouble. Worst-nightmare type of trouble. Period. That's it. Question function has been disabled. And after her poignant 416 bonus to the Jack Chow one-two in '06, trouble doesn't come any more bittersweet. Even if the Grits bomb big-time, this could be their only gain, at least in English Canada. Yes, one can talk about ‘creative class’ inroads, point to Cheri DiNovo's provincial byelection victory--but still, it's a matter of creative class vs middle class, Roncy vs Bloor West etc. And remember: had Sam Bulte not run in '06, Saint Gerard would have wiped the floor with Peggy Nash. *Then*. BUT...Nash is now the incumbent, and with a DiNovo in her pocket to boot. Still not enough, perhaps; but with some polls showing the Dion-led Liberals standing on quicksand, even Saint Gerard might wind up facing a Glen Murray-scale shock within his own former provincial turf, esp. if the Nash/DiNovo experience with ‘real’ NDP progressivism renders his Grit version a faux/smarmy 90s-yuppie relic. Ah, well, in that case, someone like Alan Tonks can retire and hand a seat over to GK in a byelection, so no hard loss. Anyway, unless the NDP were facing 1958 or 1983 or even 1974 all over again, I can see more of a ‘surprisingly’ narrow Layton/Mills '04 margin in the works--and, by extension, if there's only a single seat in Toronto where the Tory quotient is guaranteed to *fall*, it's here.
	07 03 30	Joe J. 209.29.182.225
Way, way too early to call this one. The fact you've done so shows you haven't taken off your partisan blinders. For the Liberals - high profile candidate, with strong roots in the riding and a history of winning here provincially. For the NDP - incumbent, recent victory provincially, and an organization that can focus on fewer ridings - this being one of them. The Dippers would love to knock Kennedy off. If you include municipal campaigns - voters in this riding have voted NDP three times in their last three trips to the polls. If the federal campaign is put off until next year, that number will increase to four. As for the polls - the NDP is down somewhat, but the Liberals are way down right now in the polls from their level in the last election. So that's something of a draw. Likely the conservative vote will go up a bit. But polls are pretty fluid - and in this case, I think inconclusive.
	07 03 29	Red Tory Menace 74.97.91.155
No matter what anyone thinks about a candidate being recently 'highly visible', there are some facts in a riding you can't escape. 2000 or so votes let Peggy Nash last time around beat a back bench Liberal that was, at best, regarded with ambivalence by her local constituents and at worst, resentment for being an out-of-riding, out-of-touch MP who was more likely to be found living in a Jameson Ave. apartment then being a member of any Liberal cabinet. Gerard Kennedy is genuinely popular in a genuinely Liberal area and may as well be treated as an incumbent for the kind of following he's built up. Before people start to tirade about the gentrification of Parkdale/Roncesvalles and how that's somehow concentrated dipper support (yes I've seen the new ronces starbucks) to a level rivaling the Beaches, remember that Dion's/Kennedy's Liberals are far more palatable to an urban left-leaning audience than Paul Martin's ever were. Should Liberals ever win, Kennedy's senior position in cabinet is secure while the most optimistic career prospects for Nash remain to clap and nod to Jack's sound bites a few seats closer...
	07 03 25	Esther 65.95.22.186
Peggy Nash will have a tough fight but I think she can do it. She has been a good MP, very hard-working and with a strong prescence in the riding. Not sure that Kennedy hitching his wagon to Dion is going to pay off for him.
	07 03 25	MDF+ 65.87.235.135
Gerard Kennedy. Wasn't he the guy who was supposed to rebuild Liberal fortunes in the West? I guess he meant West Toronto.
	07 03 24	Velociraptor 74.121.203.106
I think Gerard Kennedy will beat Peggy Nash in this riding. Gerard is popular among Liberals and NDPs alike, and even some Conservatives. As opposed to a few feather-bedded union members, Gerard has done work to help the poor and disposessed. Still, nothing can be taken for granted, and his campaign must work hard to show the residents of our riding that it wants their votes.
	07 03 24	P Ash 74.100.74.24
I live in this riding. Nash is popular here, and has been very visible since being elected. The NDP is popular in this riding, with the recent provincial win of Cheri DiNovo, and especially in the Parkdale half of the riding. Kennedy is going to be a huge challenge, but I think Peggy can pull it off - its not going to be as easy as the Liberals think (a la Sylvia Watson - the Libs thought they'd for sure win....) It'll be close but Peggy can do it.
	07 03 23	G. Kennedy (not that one) 65.95.109.168
Kennedy is massively popular in this area and will have an amazing machine behind him. Admittedly, the NDP will not let any of their MPs go to the wayside but even so, it'll take a Liberal collapse to keep them from picking up this one.
	07 03 23	DN 74.99.64.146
Kennedy will take this over incumbent Nash. He has a high profile national profile thanks to his performance in the leadership race. This will ensure him a lot of press. He also has a strong profile locally, having served as the riding's MPPS for many years. An easy Liberal pick-up.
	07 03 22	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.15.40.135
We have to agree that Kennedy is way too high profile to be defeated by Nash. The only thing that seems to stand out about Nash was the fact-finding mission to Lebanon last August. That was the same trip that got Wrzesnewskyj into hot water, and some may associate her with that. Non-the-less, it's Kennedy's star candidacy that will win it for the Grits as opposed to anything Nash has done. As for there being no safe NDP seats, we'd have to strongly disagree with that assessment. Though many are in trouble, we feel the NDP has a lock on Hamilton Centre and the two Windsor ridings to name just a few.
	07 03 21	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
I am generally reluctant to call ridings not held by the Liberals for them this early, but considering how large a margin Gerard Kennedy won by provincially here and the fact this riding went NDP after he resigned his provincial seat shows he is very popular here and should win easily, especially considering how will likely get a high profile cabinet post if Dion becomes PM, possibly even deputy PM.
	07 03 21	King of Kensington 74.98.171.205
I'm not going to write off Peggy Nash, she is an excellent MP and the riding has been getting better and better for the NDP over the years. It has changed greatly and has more NDP-friendly constituencies - in the 1980s the riding was mainly working class and heavily Polish and Ukrainian and the NDP only ran at about 15% here. Now the riding is filled with 'creative class' types with university educations and high incomes have moved in and they are very progressive. Though most of the NDP's ridings are in very unionized blue collar places like Hamilton, Windsor, northern Ontario, etc. in the old city of Toronto the NDP has a very professional, middle class base. So in P-HP gentrification actually helps the NDP. That being said Kennedy will be a formidable challenge. The NDP did very poorly here when Kennedy was MPP and he can definitely appeal to Liberal/NDP swing voters. I don't think it will be a cakewalk for him though and so far Dion has fared very poorly as leader. Many Dippers from Trinity-Spadina will be working for Peggy. The Liberals will throw a lot of resources into this riding as well. Finally, note to L. Nino: do you really think every NDP seat in the country is vulnerable, including places like East Vancouver and inner-city Winnipeg?
	07 03 21	Jack COx 142.55.209.48
This seat is going back to the liberal fold, It's going to be hard-fought, but Gerard Kennedy is likely to be a much better representative then Peggy Nash and my feeling is Kennedy is still pretty well liked in that riding despite the fact that the NDP has won here provincially. I'm extremely confident this will be a Liberal win.
	07 03 20	L. Nino 142.177.82.37
Gerard Kennedy can easily unseat Peggy Nash here. Kennedy is much higher profile and there are no safe NDP seats anywhere, including Toronto. Even Layton is vulnerable, if the Liberals choose right.