Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord


Prediction Changed
2015-10-13 14:16:52
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Gauthier, √Člise

Lemieux, Denis

Morin, Dany

St-Gelais, Dany

Ste-Marie, Caroline


Population/populations
(2011 census)

81501


2011 Result/rťsultats (redistributed)

1101625.56%
1623737.68%
24805.75%
1241828.81%
6551.52%
Other 2880.67%
Reference - Punditsí Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
   (194/194 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Punditsí Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Dany Morin
11016
16237
2480
12418
655
Other288



 


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15 10 15 Teddy Boragina
69.196.166.31
I was wrong, I admit that.
I've been basing my projections (math based) on province wide polls.
To make them more accurate, I split quebec into 3 regions. Montreal, the Corona, and the Rest of Quebec.
However, I've examined riding polls for the Saguenay, and all 3 ridings, consistently, have the Tories doing much much worse than the polls would suggest.
One riding poll being off is not crazy, two is a not of a note, but every poll from a sub-region? That is important.
In fact, it seems the Tory vote is over-estimated in certain math-based projections by as much as two times.
As such, I withdraw my earlier projection, and project this NDP.
15 10 15 Dr. Bear
86.21.157.198
@ Teddy: I am well aware that the NDP have dropped on Quebec and have taken that into account. You agree with me that they are currently polling at 75% of what they got in 2011 (around 33% vs the 43% they got in 2011). Take the 37.7% they had last time, multiply it by 0.75 and you get 28.3%: a statistical tie with the bloc and ahead of the conservatives. At best, a TCTC designation is warranted. That all became moot when that riding poll came out showing the NDP doing much better here than expected. Looks like the new support for the conservatives is concentrated elsewhere.
15 10 12 Teddy Boragina
69.165.149.184
A response to Dr. Bear in this, and a few other ridings. I note the specific 'math' comment by Dr. Bear was not made here, but was in other ridings, and I wish to use it here as well.
Yes, the Bloc and Tories are at 2011 levels, but the NDP is not. In fact, the NDP is closer to 30% in the polls, whereas they took closer to 40% of the vote in Quebec last time. This means - to simplify, we could assume the CPC and BQ vote will be the same, but, the NDP will lose 1 of every 4 voters. What happens if you apply that to this riding?
Here in Chicoutimi, that mat leads to an NDP loss.
However, Dr. Bear is right, that Blackburn did lead to quite a bit of local vote for the Tories.
The problem?
This was not Blackburns riding.
You could argue Blackburn bumped up the CPC vote all across the area, and that is true, however, we now have Denis Lebel doing the same.
15 10 13 Dr. Bear
82.132.236.143
Riding specific poll puts the conservatives FOURTH in this riding at 19%. NDP is down from 2011 but still ahead of the pack at 31%. Liberals and BQ both sitting around 21% apiece. This is staying orange with numbers like that.
15 10 13 Jeff S
12.10.199.12
NDP leads in new poll. They should be able to hang on to this.
http://saguenay.rougefm.ca/infosaglac/2015/10/13/lavance-de-dany-morin-diminue-dans-chicoutimi-lefjord
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
86.21.157.198
Be careful about calling this for the CPC! While they had some solid support in the past, it has always been from the spin off effect of popular MP Blackburn. That person is no longer there and even when he was, the CPC were always unable to defeat the BQ incumbent. While a CPC win is very possible, I think it's more likely a BQ take back. TCTC.
15 10 09 Teddy Boragina
69.165.149.184
The math has certainly moved away from the NDP. Don't dismiss Tory projections as a thing of the past, they can quite easily win here.
15 10 09 Neal Ford
24.156.205.18
I am now comfortable enough to say this riding will be sending a Conservative to Ottawa. Tory gains in the vote , especially in the Quebec City region spells breakthrough.
15 09 21 JFBreton
216.218.2.47
Segma Recherche Polls for Le Quotidien/√Čnergie-Rouge FM. NDP: 41,2% Liberal 18,9% Bloc 17,8% PCC 17% Easy win for the NDP.
15 09 22 A.S.
99.233.125.239
'Saguenay Conservatism' has always been a rocky affair based more upon individual candidates than anything genuinely 'regional' (and even the candidates could be wayward, as Andre Harvey's Liberal morph proved). It may be a shallow mandate Dany Morin's sitting on; but as of now, nobody else is really poised to break from the pack.
15 08 12 Dr Bear
66.49.242.78
Never mind a star candidate; it took the CPC forever to find ANY candidate. For the moment the NDP are holding their own in Francophone Quebec, while both the BQ and the CPC are not really going anywhere. That would suggest this will be won by team orange. If things shift for either the BQ or the CPC, then this riding will be in play.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
131.137.245.208
The CPC will surprise and take this riding despite no star candidate. Modest NDP decrease (in Quebec) and CPC focus on region will bode well for the CPC here.
15 06 09 Observer
24.156.205.18
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 04 07 Observer
24.156.205.18
Not ready to make a call here, but this riding has elected Tories before and Tory candidates have fared respectably. A slight swing from the Bloc to the Tories might swing the balance, especialy if the Liberala nip at the NDP vote.
The 'effet Lebel' might come into play here, as Harper's Quebec Lieutenant has been making inroads as his profile rises in the government.
15 03 29 Dr Bear
69.171.136.202
The CPC have done well here when they were consistently high in the Quebec polls. They also often have a candidate with a strong presence in the riding. Barring either, I am reluctant to suggest a CPC win. As well, this is a separatist riding; if the BQ gain popularity they could take back this riding. If I were compelled to make a decision, I think the voters would choose to vote NDP, especially with NDP courting Quebec nationalists.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
Interesting riding as this is a solid separatist riding yet has frequently elected federalist parties. The Conservatives have tended to do well here in past elections thus no doubt this is one of their targets in Quebec, but unlike Quebec City or Chaudière-Appalaches region, the ADQ and CAQ never did well here so its not exactly a centre-right region, rather a lot of the separatist are more your older traditional ones as opposed to your left leaning Montreal types thus the Tories probably are winning some of the right leaning nationalist types.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
69.165.234.184
Dany Morin is a very good MP but right now based on polling in Quebec the Tories would take this riding.



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