Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord


La prévision a changé
2009-09-03 16:35:00
 


 
Profil de circonscription

candidats:

Bolduc-Tremblay, Charles-Olivier

Bouchard, Robert

Couture, Marielle

Morin, Dany

Néron, Carol

Pettersen, Marc

Député:
Robert Bouchard

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • chicoutimi-le-fjord (182/182 Polls)
  • jonquiere (13/149 Polls)
  • lac-saint-jean-saguenay (24/162 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


  •  


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 29 Stéphane Gaudet
    66.130.172.171
    En plus de la région de Québec, CROP a sondé les coeurs des Saguenéens et Jeannois pour le compte du journal Le Quotidien. Dans Chicoutimi, Bouchard serait largement en tête avec 43%, loin devant le jeune Dany Morin (NPD) qui recueille tout de même 27% et Carol Néron, troisième avec 18%. Le PCC comptait sur lui pour arracher le siège au Bloc, il semble que ce ne sera pas le cas. L'appui du maire Jean Tremblay et la question de la prière au conseil municipal n'ont pas pesé sur les intentions de vote. Je change ma prédiction, victoire bloquiste le 2 mai dans Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.
    http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/28/01-4394425-le-vent-souffle-vers-lest-pour-le-npd.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS1
    11 04 26 expat
    209.105.131.192
    According to a poll conducted for the ‘Courrier du Saguenay’ April 18-21, Bouchard is ahead in a 3 way race.
    It showed Bouchard with 35%, the Conservative Neron with 29%, the NPDiste Morin with 23%, and the Liberal Pettersen with 11%.
    Given how dynamic the Quebec political environment is this year, anything could happen, but at the moment Bouchard and the Bloc should be able to pull out a win.
    11 04 24 JFBreton
    184.163.6.60
    Lutte entre les bloquistes et les conservateurs, sans doute très serrée, mais victoire bloquiste au fil d'arrivée, à la condition que les NPD ne vienne pas diviser outre-mesure le vote.
    11 04 22 SouthpawPundit
    69.196.188.238
    The only way the Tories lose this riding is if the NDP somehow gains enough momentum to take them out. The BQ isn't in a position to the honours. Either way, this proud working-class community will go NDP within 5 years.
    11 04 22 William K
    76.66.181.106
    je pense que les conservateurs vont prendre ce comté; ils ont un candidat respecté & competent... le candidat du Bloc est un ‘drôle de moineau’ selon plusieurs - ensuite l'appui du maire de Saguenay va sans doute aider Neron du CPP
    11 04 20 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.194.251
    We're with M. Lunn on this one. The CPC don't have the momentum. This should be one that they take from the Bloc but unless they can turn things around in Quebec and fast then this will stay BQ.
    11 04 18 Philly D.
    174.142.32.173
    Even at 17%, this is one of four ridings the Conservatives can hope to pick up (along with Louis-Hébert, Richmond-Arthabaska and Abitibi--Baie-James). The Bloc is slightly lower in the polls than last time, and the NDP vote is already so low an increase is probable, likely at the BQ's expense, even if only by 1000 or so. This one should be moved to TCTC.
    Une des très rares circonscriptions au Québec auxquels les Conservateurs peuvent encore espérer. Le Bloc est en baisse par rapport 2008, et le vote néo-démocrate est déjà tellement faible qu'il ne peut qu'augmenter, du moins modestement. Cette circonscription est incertaine, du moins jusqu'à l'on sache si et dans quelle mesure le BQ se stabilise.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Had the Tories gotten some major momentum in Quebec they may had a shot, but despite its closeness last time around, Harper is very unpopular in Quebec and didn't do well in the French debates thus it will really be a fight for the Tories to hold what they have now, not to pick up seats. Any gains towards a majority will come from English Canada, not Quebec.
    11 04 13 Stéphane Gaudet
    66.130.172.171
    Le seul comté du Sag-Lac qui échappe encore aux conservateurs pourrait changer de bord le 2 mai. La controverse relative à la prière à l'hôtel de ville et la croisade du maire Jean Tremblay pourrait favoriser les conservateurs, d'autant plus que ceux-ci présentent comme candidat un journaliste bien connu dans la région. En tous les cas, ce sera serré, mais je sens plus une victoire conservatrice. Un des rares gains que le PCC ferait au Québec.
    11 04 03 rebel
    99.246.106.104
    Both Ipsos-Reid in their pre-election call poll, and now Nanos (in their last wo dailies) are showing the Conservatives running well above their 2008 (in fact 2006) showings in Quebec. Chicoutimi would be the first riding to be carried by the Tories if this trend holds. Two neighbouring ridings are already Conservative...
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    This is perhaps the only seat the Tories don't hold that they might have a shot at picking up. They have been pretty strong in the Saguenay region in the past two elections despite the fact this area voted 2/3 in favour of separation and the ADQ never did well here. Nonetheless I still think this is likely to go Bloc Quebecois and unless the Tories can get some major traction in Quebec which seems unlikely, I expect this to stay Bloc.
    11 04 01 AR
    99.199.185.87
    This is never going to be a federalist riding again until Robert Bouchard retires. Not only will Bloc support increase in this riding but expect the man who was voted to best represent his constituents by ALL mp's in the house to get over 50% of the vote.
    09 11 23 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This is likely a riding where the conservatives are still fairly competitive and more than likely a bloc / conservative race in the next election. in 2008 the conservatives came within 3000 votes of winning this riding which by quebec standards is fairly close , making it one of the half dozen or so bloc ridings that the conservatives could possibly pick up . of course Robert Bouchard has the incumbent advantage by now and i'm not sure what the conservatives will be doing for a candidate here or if previous one be running again.
    Ceci est probablement un prendre ou les conservateurs sont toujours assez competitifs et plus que probablement un bloc/la course conservatrice dans la prochaine election. dans 2008 les conservateurs est venu dans 3000 votes de gagner ce prendre qui par les normes de Québec est assez proche, le faisant une des demi douzaine ou si le bloc debarrasse que les conservateurs pourraient prendre probablement. de cours Robert Bouchard a le titulaire L'avantage a l'heure qu'il est et je ne suis pas sur que les conservateurs feront pour un candidat ici ou si precedent l'un est couru encore.
    09 11 21 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    76.64.11.49
    Absolutly surprised that there isn't an outpouring of Tory sympathizers screaming that this riding should be listed as a CPC gain if not at least TCTC. There's been a steady increase in CPC support over the years and one could argue that 2006 was a loss only because Andre Harvey ran for the Liberals and split the vote. In 2008, when there was a loss of support across Quebec, the CPC still held its own in Chicoutimi. If CPC support remains steady (and we should all know by now that Quebec voters are the most fickle voters) then this would be a likely subsequent pick up in the next election.
    09 09 02 JF Breton
    24.203.249.32
    Les conservateurs sont passés près de réussir un trois en trois au Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean en 2008. Depuis, les conservateurs ont perdu des plumes au Québec. Le Bloc devrait augmenter sa majorité ici.
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    67.159.44.51
    Voters in the Saguenay--Lac-St-Jean are willing to vote for the government if and only if this will result in special attention for their own riding. The problem for Chicoutimi voters is that the Conservative Party already has two cabinet ministers from the region. There is therefore no point in voting Conservative in Chicoutimi, and this will result in a Bloc win.



    Navigate to 2011 - élection générale | Actualité provinciale | Soumettez l'information ici

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster