|
|
|
 | 08 02 15 |
A.S. 99.233.96.153 |
| What a flip: an unlikely Saguenay non-Bloc seat a decade ago, it's now the last remaining Bloc seat in the Saguenay. And at this point I'm wondering if even in the absence of Andre Harvey, Chicoutimians will feel sufficiently contrarian as to re-elect the Bloc, anyway... |
 | 07 11 14 |
DAVID 192.197.82.203 |
| Avec le retrait de la course à l'investiture conservatrice du maire de Saguenay, M. Jean Tremblay, les chances du député bloquiste Robert Bouchard sont décuplées! S'il y a un siège que le Bloc risque de conserver au Saguenay c'est bien ce lui là! |
 | 07 10 24 |
Dr Bear & Prof Ape 204.187.16.106 |
| A very realistic gain for the CPC, provided that two things occur. 1) Their poll numbers hold (or increase)in Quebec. 2) Andre Harvey does not run for the Liberals. If Harvey runs, then vote splitting will let the BQ win this. The best bet for both Harvey and the CPC would for him to run on their ticket. He was a PCer int he 80's and again in 97 until most of the PC Quebec MPs defected to the Liberals under Joe Clark. Should he go back to his roots he'd win by a huge margin. As for the Liberals, look to see them fighting for a very distant third with the NDP and Greens (again, assuming Harvey doesn't run on their ticket). |
 | 07 10 20 |
C B 72.38.227.236 |
| Absolutely no question now that this riding will fall to the Conservatives if their numbers hold in Quebec. The only potential factor is the possibility of Harvey running again for the Liberals. The Liberal numbers are in a free fall currently and I would be shocked if he ran again. The election result from Jonquiere and by-election result from Roberval are strong indicators that Chicoutimi will go Conservative as well. |
 | 07 09 20 |
Matt R 70.83.121.173 |
| So long as Andre Harvey isn't running (at least not for the liberals) and the Conservatives don't do any major damage to their image in Quebec this one looks like it will turn Conservative blue next time around. |
 | 07 08 18 |
binriso 156.34.222.27 |
| This ones an interesting race between the CPC and BQ. Andr? Harvey's personal popularity clearly inflated Liberal numbers, but im unsure him not running this time will mean a huge chunk of Liberal votes going CPC. Supposedly, this is in the separatist heartland in Saguenay and the PQ did win pretty much every seat in the area but ill call this TCTC. A slight advantage to the CPC here though. |
 | 07 04 09 |
Dr Bear & Prof Ape 67.71.57.62 |
| Though the Saguenay region is the heartland of Quebec separatism, the BQ are not safe. This riding surprisingly went PC in '97 and reelected Andre Harvey until '04 when he was narrowly defeated. The CPC was competitive here in '06, getting ~25% of the vote (which is a big deal in this region) and Harvey (who was on the liberal ticket) took ~ 30% of the vote. Now the Grit numbers are more ‘Harvey numbers’ as he is more popular than the party. It would be interesting if he runs again for the Liberals, making it a 3 way race. If he doesn't, look for a great battle between the BQ and the CPC. |
 | 07 04 09 |
Brian Appel 64.230.123.143 |
| With Conservative fortunes up in Quebec, and Bloc fortunes down, combined with the fact that Andre Harvey is likely not running again, this riding seems a prime target for a Conservative pickup. |