Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Beauport-Limoilou


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:22:13
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bedard, Francis

Berberi, Doni

Bujold, Antoine

Clarke, Alupa

Côté, Raymond

Elhak, Dalila

Laborit, Bladimir

Moreau, Claude


Population/populations
(2011 census)

92944


2011 Result/rsultats (redistributed)

1203125.28%
2184745.91%
30256.36%
958420.14%
8841.86%
Other 2210.46%
Reference - Pundits Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Beauport-Limoilou
   (228/244 polls, 94.01% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Raymond Ct
11336
20649
2837
8838
833
Other221


   Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cte-Nord
   (16/244 polls, 5.99% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Jonathan Tremblay
695
1198
188
746
51



 


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15 10 19 Oliver May
96.22.144.210
I too think this will resist with Québec the Cons in the City. I also think that their vote won't be as strong as predicted.
I, too, was surprised to see this change before the other ridings in the city. If anything it is the hardest for the Cons to win. Anne-Marie Day was the other strong candidate for the NDP so expect Charlesbourg to be close, too.
15 10 17 Tes
147.194.105.107
Might be jumping the gun with the CPC call here! I feel that after 'Quebec', this would be the NDP's second best shot to hold onto a seat in the region. Much more working class than the rest of the city. Also surprised this one was given a CPC call before Charlesbourg or Beauport-Ile D'Orleans, as they are more likely pick-ups. Cote is also a stronger MP than the other accidental-elects in the city.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
86.21.157.198
Careful with the quick and crazy predictions for the conservatives and/or bloc. Both parties are up in the polls, but they are only polling (at the moment) around what they had on e-day in 2011. They were so far behind in Quebec that they are just now caught up to where they were when they bombed in the province. That said, there does appear to be a three way dog fight shaping up for this riding. If the advances for the BQ and/or the CPC stall then the NDP keep this seat.
15 10 10 Oliver May
96.22.144.210
My home riding. I can't see it happening but I recognise that it is possible for the Conservatives to win this one. My thinking relies on a collapse of the bloc vote in Québec City to keep the Tories out. I don't think it will be massive but I think it will be large enough for Raymond to hang on here. Anne-Marie Day has got to be hoping for the same thing. I have seen a lot of attacks on the Liberal posters around town. By the way, this is partly why I think Annick could hold on in Québec, though I think a split vote will favour the bloc there.
15 10 09 Teddy Boragina
69.165.149.184
The math is telling us the Tories now have the edge here. I am loathe to rant about math this election, but given there are no other projections in this riding indicating this (here on the website) I feel I must.
15 10 09 Neal Ford
24.156.205.18
I am now comfortable enough to say this riding will be sending a Conservative to Ottawa. Tory gains in the vote , especially in the Quebec City region spells breakthrough.
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
23.91.128.216
A week or so ago, a dozen or two Quebec ridings were changed to the NDP here at the EPP. Since then, the NDP has dropped in the polls in Quebec.
There are a number of ridings currently predicted to go NDP that could go to another party if polls continue to drop. They are:
Pierre-Boucher, Salaberry, Abitibi, Beauport, Charlesbourg, Rimouski, Louis Hebert, and LaSalle.
In this riding in particular... the former CPC MP was not nearly as strong as some are implying.
15 09 21 A.S.
99.233.125.239
In the end, even a Jean Pelletier CPC candidacy might have been a gamble, even when the party was polling in or close to the lead in the Capitale-Nationale environs--monkey's right; there's just too much 'old Quebec City' for comfort, with Limoilou being to Quebec kind of like what the Danforth traditionally was to Toronto. And the fact that Sylvie Boucher's not running for her old seat again--don't think of it as just a 'making way for Pelletier' gesture.
15 09 03 Tony
71.7.250.207
NDP beat a decent CPC candidate and incumbent last time, this time they don't have to worry about that and win the seat again.
15 07 31 Woodworth
209.171.88.240
Raymond Cote is a good MP and is high profile. The NDP is doing well so he should hold this seat.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
24.114.68.55
NDP MP Cote, an economist, has been tapped by many media sources as a potential NDP cabinet pick. The CPC had a chance to nominate Carnaval CEO Pelletier, but the riding association chose another candidate, solidifying the risk g for the NDP.
15 04 11 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
The Conservatives have announced another 'star candidate' for Québec: Jean Pelletier, the former CEO of Winter Rendezvous, will be running in Beauport—Limoilou.
http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/tories-land-another-high-profile-candidate-in-jean-pelletier
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
Unless you get a perfect three way split on the centre-left, I expect this to stay NDP. The Tories tend to do better in the suburbs of Quebec City as opposed to the old city or areas close to it. In 2006 and 2008 if you look at the polls in Quebec City, the Tories mostly won in the new areas added after amalgamation, not the areas of the old city. Sort of like the 2010 mayoral election in Toronto where Ford won all the new areas added, but Smitherman won the old city.
15 03 20 JFBreton
96.23.214.160
Outre la circonscription de Québec, Beauport-Limoilou est la plus susceptible de demeurer dans le giron néo-démocrate dans la région de Québec et de résister aux conservateurs. Raymond Côté est par ailleurs très présent dans sa circonscription.



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