Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-11 08:10:00

Constituency Profile


Chudleigh, Ted

Farrant, Susan

Ghory, Khalid (Kal)

Marsh, Gerald

Naidoo-Harris, Indira

Spohr, Nik

Ted Chudleigh


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Halton)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 09 therealbatman
    Chudleigh will win a fifth term here. Only if the PC's totally collapse will he be in danger of losing.
    14 06 09 BG
    The PC candidate seems uninterested and is relying on name recognition. This will be a closer race than 2011 and if the 13% NDP vote decides to be strategic then the Liberals will win this seat. As an NDP supporter, Liberal Indira Naidoo-Harris is a much more viable option.
    14 06 09 NJam101
    Last time the NDP candidate received about 13% of the votes. In previous elections the NDP candidates got about 7.5%. This time it seems as though a number of NDP voters are voting Liberal to stop the PCs. Will it happen here and make the difference to allow a Liberal win? How is Nik Spohr's campaign going? That may be the deciding factor.
    14 06 02 Arden
    I simply don't see the Liberal party gaining nearly enough traction to take this seat away from the PC incumbent.
    14 06 03 seasaw
    Chudleigh's been elected here since 1995. He came close to losing his seat in 2007, and did a lot better in 2011. In both instances, the PC's had a terrible campaign, this PC campaign is not good either, but it's certainly a lot better than the last two. Expect him to win bigger this time.
    14 06 02 KS
    A year ago I predicted the PCs will hold this riding by a comfortable margin. However, it seems as Hudak's support has been stagnant and his party isn't really making a breakthrough.
    Right now, it seems like the Liberals are really making a play for this riding. Liberal candidate Indira Naidoo Harris has been campaigning hard in this riding and it will play off.It is one of their few potential pick up seats that are held by the PCs.
    14 06 02 A.S.
    Given the booming suburbia and all, there's something oddly 'c20 Ontario heartland' anachronistic about Chudleigh's personage, i.e. he's definitely more Old Milton than Boomburban Milton--no wonder Chudleigh's had to flee Liberal competitiveness in recent races (and hey, I clairvoyantly sensed his scare-of-a-lifetime coming in 2007) Then again, Milton's had the same mayor for decades (take that, Hazel!), so if much of Halton continues to feel tokenly comfy w/Chudleigh, so be it. But you still can't rule out whatever effect continued boomburbia might have (and, especially, ethno-boomburbia; indeed, Chudleigh and Naidoo-Harris are a vivid demographic past-and-future personification for Halton)
    14 05 08 Numbers Pundit
    Halton Region was a bastion of Tory support in the Harris years. In 1995, all 4 Halton ridings went decisively PC; in Burlington alone, then-8 year incumbent MPP Cam Jackson topped over 70% of the popular vote. Every riding in the region gave the 4 Tory incumbents who represented the region: Gary Carr in Oakville, Ted Chudleigh in Halton, Cam Jackson in Burlington, and Toni Skarica in Wentworth-Burlington over 50% of the vote; in fact, only Skarica scored under 60%. Fast-forward to 2003 and Tories kept only Burlington and Halton (the latter barely). Oakville went to Grit Kevin Flynn (Carr retired and left the PCs to emerge as the federal Liberal MP from Oakville in 2004-06) and Wentworth-Burlington which was redrawn to the rambling Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot was lost to the Tories in 2000 when Skarica resigned in protest to the forced amalgamation of the city of Hamilton with Wentworth Region. Liberal Ted McMeekin sailed for victory in the ensuing by-election. In 2007, Halton Region kept its 2 Grits. Burlington gave Jackson's successor Joyce Savoline the nod in both the by-election and general election that year but with pluralities and popular vote totals nowhere nearing the 1995 and 1999 eras. 2011 should have been ripe for the PCs to reclaim the region yet Oakville couldn't warm enough to Hudak and ADFW stubbornly clung to McMeekin. As much as some may point to demographics evolving in what had been pretty white-bread Halton, it's true but the same 4 ridings are comfortably Tory at the federal level - each incumbent MP secured greater than 50% in 2011. In contrast, Halton residents were far too spooked in October of that same year. It was evidenced by Kevin Flynn's Oakville result being a mere 2% away from 50% and Ted McMeekin having just shy of 9% more than PC Donna Skelly. Neither Ted Chudleigh nor Jane McKenna got anywhere close to 50% in Halton or Burlington respectively. If trends continue, Chudleigh should keep the seat and so should McKenna. What will decide Halton region as a whole is if Flynn falls in Oakville. If he does the entire region will go blue, and perhaps both Ted and Jane can hope to improve significantly on their vote totals as a result. But the central campaign will impact the Halton seats moreso than others in the 905 and Hudak better find a way to appeal to the hitherto 50% of the region that appeared unfazed enough in 2011 to give the Liberal incumbents clearance to continue.
    14 05 05 FP
    Mr. Chudleigh is invisable to the voters. His constant complaining has worn thin with voters. He has no ideas himself, just the ability to complain about anything and everthing. With greater name recognition since the last vote, the Liberal candidate in this riding should send Mr. Chedleigh to his retirement.
    14 05 07 R.O.
    Hold for current Ontario pc mpp Ted Chudleigh , the riding has grown and will be redistributed into new ridings in the future . but don't see the opposition not keeping seats they have won consistently in past elections .
    14 05 05 FP
    Mr. Chudleigh is invisible to the voters. His constant complaining has worn thin with voters. He has no ideas himself, just the ability to complain about anything and everthing. With greater name recognition since the last vote, the Liberal candidate in this riding should send Mr. Chedleigh to his retirement.
    14 05 03 Teddy Boragina
    Changing demographics have caused the riding to trend far more Liberal than province-wide polling numbers would suggest. In 1971 Milton, the core of this riding, had 7,018 people. In 2006 it had 53,939. By 2011 it had 84,362. In 2016 it is projected to have 123,589 people, and will double that in the following 15 years.
    Milton is difficult to project precisely because of these demographics.
    13 04 14 KS
    The Liberals were very close to winning this riding in 2007 and 2011 due to weak PC campaigns and changing demographics. However, the Liberals are not strong enough province-wide to win this seat. Chudleigh has been re-elected five times and should be able to win this without much difficulty.
    13 02 13 Angry Ontarian
    Ted Chudleigh has been MPP since 1995 and there's no reason to believe he won't continue to serve. New voters in Milton seem to embrace him too.

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