Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Halton


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Buck, Phil

Chudleigh, Ted

Fraser, Karen

Naidoo-Harris, Indira

Rodrigues, Tony

Spohr, Nik

Van Den Burg, Gina

Incumbent:
Ted Chudleigh

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * TED CHUDLEIGH
    22,67741.84%
    GARY ZEMLAK
    22,50141.51%
    ANDREW CHLOBOWSKI
    4,3768.07%
    PAT HEROUX
    4,1607.68%
    STAN LAZARSKI
    4870.90%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1818242.09%
    2010146.53%
    324807.51%


  •  


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    11 09 24 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Well, I was ahead of the game in '07 in foreseeing the unforeseen: a tight one for Ted Chudleigh. And this time the Liberals have a higher-profile candidate than last time...which if the Grits-at-large were still working under Chretien/Martin-era circumstances federally, should be enough to tip this into their column. Trouble is, it's the post-Dion/Iggy era--sure, that's federal, and this is provincial; but, still. By surviving '07 by the skin of his teeth, Chudleigh's earned the right to stay--though given the closeness that year, maybe I'll withhold a prediction *just in case*.
    11 09 19 AD
    24.246.31.39
    The PC incumbant should be able to hold this one. I don't think the Liberals are going to be as close with them in this riding for this election. The Liberal vote is likely to drop, and based on Fed results, this is the type of area that the PC stands to do well in.
    11 07 31 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This riding was really close in 07 not really sure it be that close again. It depends on how Ted Chudleigh has performed as mpp in the riding and what affect a new liberal candidate has on the race. but if pc's do better than 07 which is what is expected they shouldn't have any trouble in Halton region as its been a mostly tory area over the years. this type of suburban riding in GTA seems to be where the provincial conservatives have best results.
    11 02 18 GV
    206.248.179.40
    Ted Chudleigh barely won last time after 12 years as an MPP. This riding isn't as conservative as it once was, what with increased immigration, but there's no reason to think that the PCs will be losing seats this time. The Liberal candidate is a former broadcaster who seems to have some name recognition, but she'll stand no chance amid what looks to be a torrent of minority vote-switching in the 905. This, coupled with Chudleigh's fairly high profile, should guarantee him the seat.



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