Prediction Changed
1:05 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

Halton (99.2%)
Ted Chudleigh
Burlington (0.8%)
Joyce Savoline

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 10 Mike S
Gotta disagree with Nick - Garth Turner won in spite of Harper and the Conservatives, not because of them. Halton is NOT a socially conservative riding, and there is a lot of concern about the Reform party influence here.
That should be a non-issue in this election. Ted should take this one easily, as the Liberals have no chance in this riding, having run a no-name candidate who looks funny. I expect to see a large Green vote in this riding for two reasons:
- 1 - environment is a hot issue in oakville, and
- 2 - the Greens promised to eliminate catholic school funding and the local catholic board has embarrassed themselves by refusing to work in the same building as the public board and the police board.
07 10 04 Nick J Boragina
This riding is a conservative one. Thatís small c conservative. Garth Turner, who might be a Liberal now, was elected as a Tory. Dare I say that had Turner run in the last election as a Liberal, he would have lost to some no-name Tory. This is one of the ridings where the party you are representing matters a lot. This riding is made up of Milton as well as parts of Oakville and Burlington. This riding is growing, and the growth is mostly from the rich, people who can afford to drive into downtown to their penthouse offices in the bank buildings.
07 09 17 RyanOntario
PC hold for now, sure this riding has changed and the town of milton has increased in size. But the liberal candidate isn't as well known as Gary Carr or Garth Turner. There candidate Gary Zemlak is sort of new compared to Ted Chudleigh who has been the mpp for a few years.
07 09 16 A.S.
Redistribution has robbed Ted Chudleigh of the Chudleigh Apple Farm heartland, and blunts his notional advantage as well. On the surface, this ought to be a safe PC seat, despite the absolutely explosive GTAish growth (and Garth Turner's party-hop)--but somehow, I can smell a whiff of potential endangerment on the horizon, in case stuff like the private/religious school funding issue kills the Tories. If there's a hypothetical list of most-vulnerable PC incumbents, chalk Chudleigh in near the top--but don't martyr yourself to the list, necessarily...
07 05 05 M. Lunn
This is an affluent suburban riding and they are the type who are generally centre-right, so Chuleigh should easily win here. The only reason this riding is not a safe Tory riding federally, is this is not a socially conservative riding. With Harper generally polling 5-10% lower than John Tory in the 905 belt, any riding in the 905 that goes Tory federally (although it is now Liberal with Garth Turner's defection) will definitely go Tory provincially.
07 03 24 Angry Ontarian
Halton has changed significantly since 2003. Georgetown is gone, and hundreds of new homes have popped up in Oakville/Burlington. According to the census, Milton has exploded in population.
But if Harper could win here in 2006, any John Tory candidate will prosper. With the well liked 3-term Ted Chudleigh seeking re-election, should be a PC hold.

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