Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Whitby-Oshawa


Prediction Changed
2013-03-11 22:13:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Elliott, Christine Janice

Kelly, Ryan

Krishnan, Ajay

Leadbetter, Stacey

Thom, Douglas

Incumbent:
Christine Elliott

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Whitby-Oshawa)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * CHRISTINE ELLIOTT
    2449948.17%
    ELIZABETH ROY
    1698833.4%
    MARET SADEM-THOMPSON
    786515.46%
    BRADLEY GIBSON
    11392.24%
    DAN KING
    2110.41%
    DOUGLAS THOM
    1600.31%
    2007 Result:
    * CHRISTINE ELLIOTT
    22,69444.00%
    LAURA HAMMER
    18,56035.99%
    NIGEL MOSES
    5,73411.12%
    DOUG ANDERSON
    3,7457.26%
    MARTY GOBIN
    4140.80%
    DALE CHILVERS
    2750.53%
    BILL FRAMPTON
    1500.29%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1748536.98%
    2227847.12%
    599912.69%


  •  


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    14 05 20 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Christine Elliott should be able to hold this riding for Ontario pc's . it was a close race a few years back but don't really see it being that close this year for a number of reasons . a suburban 905 riding that is likely to stay with Ontario pc's .
    14 05 06 Welsh Lad
    99.242.200.114
    Normally I wouldn't vote PC, but Elliott is a very effective MPP. She is honest, hard-working, committed to her constituents and pragmatic. Elliott appeals to Blue and Red Tories alike. If the PC's are elected she is a shoe-in for cabinet - but that will only be a minority. Had the tory brass picked her instead of Who-dat, she'd landslide to a majority.
    14 05 11 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    Don't forget another factor behind the possibility of Whitby-Oshawa hitting 50%: the sympathy factor--why would voters arbitrarily spit on the recently bereaved? Though as always: with the Flaherty-Elliott household factored out, W-O wouldn't necessarily be such an automatic Tory--or at least Eves-Tory-Hudak-era defeated/opposition Tory--slam dunk: the NDP once won or was competitive here, y'know.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    As a centre-right outerlying suburban riding, it is normally a PC riding to begin with. With Christine Elliot either a cabinet potential if the PCs win or a leadership hopeful if they lose which will force Hudak to resign, there is absolutely little reason to dump here. The question is does she get over 50% or not, not whether she wins or not. In fact this maybe the closest riding to Toronto where the PCs get over 50% unless things really turn in their favour.
    13 02 28 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    PC hold. Christine Elliott's high profile and the fact that the PC candidate has won big here since 1995 is enough to make this prediction



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