Prediction Changed
6:37 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Anderson, Doug
Flaherty, Jim
Christian Heritage
Forbes, Yvonne
Fullard, Brent
New Democratic
Purdy, David

Hon. Jim Flaherty

2006 Result:
Jim Flaherty
Judi Longfield **
Maret Sadem-Thompson
Ajay Krishnan
Marty Gobin
Tom Cochrane

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 24 King of Kensington
I'll bet Tory strategists are thrilled about the Liberal candidate in Whitby-Oshawa. Flaherty's Liberal opponent is a Forest Hill investment banker who wants to be the surrogate representative for the income trust people. Ekos recently noted that the Tories' appeal has become relatively classless while the more elitist Liberals skew disproportionately from high income voters. Harper's appeal to ‘regular Canadians’ is totally aimed at ridings like this and the Tories themselves couldn't have picked a better opponent!
08 09 22 Torontonian537
I can't believe how much attention this riding has received. The outcome is obvious: Flaherty will win easily. I was in Whitby-Oshawa this weekend, and two things quickly became apparent. First, the overwhelming majority of signs on front lawns belong to Flaherty. There were a couple of Green signs, and none for Fullard or the NDP. The other is that Fullard has zero name recognition, and three weeks aren't enough time to manufacture it. One other thing to remember: Flaherty's wife also defeated Judi Longfield in a close race in 2006. When she ran for re-election last year in a terrible year for the Tories, she won by over 4,000 votes. This is a good year for CPC, as we all know. Fullard should brace himself: this one's going to be ugly.
08 09 17 C.I.
Flaherty will win this riding. The Liberals should be competitive (Flaherty didn't win by much last time, albeit against an incumbent) but so far they aren't. For as their talk about nominating a ‘star’ candidate there's no sign of him. He doesn't have any signs up, his webpage is just a stock Liberal party webpage. Sure, he was just nominated last week, but that only goes to the organization (or lack thereof) of the Liberal party. Didn't they catch on that an election was coming this fall? Flaherty has all the advantages of incumbancy and significant name recognition - his opponent doesn't and doesn't seem to be working too hard to overcome them.
08 09 16 E. L. Smerl
Flaherty can't lose against this opposition. The real reason he said not to invest in Ontario was because he's the only invulnerable Ontario Minister who can say it. But the entire Harper Cabinet believes it, of course, and to repeat Flaherty's comment over and over again may hurt neighbouring Cons.
This race is purely a show for the rest of the province, as others have said.
08 09 15 E. Duncan
Ever since Flaherty ran for re-election in 1999, people always said he would lose. And each time, he delivers a solid win.
This time will be no different. Flaherty has a huge volunteer team, strong voter ID, and solid fundraising that will help their campaign. GM has lost jobs before, there have been other issues, and each time- he survived.
Flaherty will win by 6,000 votes this time around against a parachute candidate has little organization and base set up in the riding.
08 09 14 Gone Fishing
Buzz Hargrove campaigning against you is a disadvantage? Does anyone remember Paul Martin practically fornicating with Buzz Hargrove in the last election? It didn't exactly do him a lot of good. For everyone that likes Buzz Hargrove there are two that despise the man.
High profile Union leaders do not often translate into voter support (Sid Ryan next door) and the Liberals have a one issue candidate who isn't exactly squeaky clean.
08 09 14 durham gal
We can have all the debates we want about candidates, who said what and on and on, but Mr Flarety cannot run, hid or deny his has thumbed his nose at Ontario. Voters are anxious to get even. This riding is getting a lot of media attention because they smell a story here.
08 09 12 DEEBEE
Flaherty did not win by a landslide last time and since then he has alienated a lot of groups. Every income trust investor voted for him last time and every one will vote against him this time. Then there is Buzz Hargrove and the CAW membership who are organizing against him. And at a time when Ontario is losing jobs generally and falling into have-not province status, he advised the world as Canadian Minister of Finance not to invest in Ontario. He will not admit his mistakes and seems to sneer at everyone who does not agree with everything he says and does.
08 09 10 Stevo
Brent Fullard's comparison of Stephen Harper to Adolph Hitler last year probably guaranteed Jim Flaherty an even bigger win than he could have expected. Such an obscene accusation against someone he simply disagrees with reminds voters of the smarminess of the Chretien/Martin era, and they want none of that in these parts. Flaherty may well crack 50%.
08 09 10 Eastern Ontario Values
It didn't take Brent Fullard long to make an impact! Under the headline ‘Liberal Candidate Apologizes for Nazi Remarks’ in the National Post, he's been forced to apologize for e-mails he sent comparing Stephen Harper and another business leader to Hitler. B'nai Brith is calling for his removal, and the Canadian Jewish Congress are also up in arms. The Tories are calling on Dion not to sign off on his nomination. It's a big mess, and Fullard may or may not survive to contest the election. He's already issued an apology, but I can't imagine he'll be able to live down such remarks even if he goes forward.
08 09 09 durham gal
Jim has his hands full. He has always been able to outspend his opponents, this time that advantage has been removed with this liberal candidate. Having a Ontario Fiance minister has been of no benefit to Ontario, contrary, Jim has acted like he hates Ontario. Judging by negative comments about Mr F in the media across the province his defeat will be no loss to Ontario. Not only that Mr F carries the baggage of having put the federal finances in the same boat as he did with the Ontario fiances.
08 09 08 Jon
The Liberals have announced their candidate, Brent Fullard.
He is a single issue candidate (income trusts).
He lives in Toronto (not Whitby or Oshawa).
His only link to the Durham Region appears to be that he worked at GM 20 years ago.
Pretty clear the Liberals have ditched this riding and are using it only to make some press against Flaherty rather than putting up a candidate Whitby-Oshawa can trust to represent them.
Flaherty has this one in the bag.
08 09 08 Red Tory
I think Jim Flaherty has met his match. Last night the Liberals nominated Brent Fullard. According to the likes of Diane Francis of the Natioanl Post: The sparks will fly and Mr. Flaherty had better bone up on his debating skills and go to school on the economics, taxation, forex, stock market and investor implications.’
Brent Fullard has devoted considerable time on a strictly volunteer basis as the CEO of Canadian Association of Income Trust Investors / Taxpayers, a group he founded to advocate for accountability and transparency from the Harper government and to reveal the government's lies about so-called tax leakage.
In his own words, Fullard says: ‘I'm not seeking to run for the Liberals in (any) riding, I'm seeking to confront Flaherty on his policies and his competence for office. And I can't do that anywhere else but Whitby-Oshawa.’
08 08 31 King of Kensington
Buzz Hargrove told the Toronto Star that he is not planning to run for the Liberals. Jim Flaherty should hang on in Whitby-Oshawa. The backlash against Flaherty is more likely to happen next door.
08 08 17 OG
I'm going to break the trend here. If Buzz Hargrove decides to run here (as is very likely) then Flaherty is finished. The traditional Liberal vote, falling NDP fortunes in Ontario, the NDP swing to the (former) most powerful and most loved union president in the country and massive job layoffs in oshawa (blamed on the tories) all point to a Liberal pick up.
08 08 08 R.O.
This is actually a fairly conservative riding even though location wise it’s near some very liberal areas like Scarborough. It’s a suburban area that is becoming more urban but still the suburbs. In recent provincial and federal votes this riding has consistently elected conservatives with the exception of Judi Longfield’s time as mp. Jim Flaherty is also likely one of the most well known politicians in whitby as he has been an elected mpp before as well and was first elected in 95. also his main competition here the liberals and ndp do not even have nominated candidates yet from what I have heard.
08 06 19 Koby1Kanoby
Mr. Flaherty's fight with Ontario, and the GM layoffs will leave many here voting ABC. If Mr. Flaherty is shuffled out of the Finance Minister portfolio, he will have a very hard time reclaiming his seat next election.
08 06 02 Philly D.
This one will be much closer than previous posters suggest, and it would not be a major shock if the Liberals picked this one up if they win even a minority government. First, although it was clear last Election Day that Flaherty would have a high-profile portfolio if he was elected, he only won by about 5%. Second, Durham is slowly trending Liberal on a long-term basis. Third, there has been a sizeable population boost in Durham and Whitby, with new houses holding more generally Liberal voters as in Ajax and Pickering. Fourth, there was a increase in the NDP vote by about 3000 last time. Certainly some squeeze is possible. Finally, the Finance Minister is not too popular is Ontario nowadays. Even if he is popular locally somewhat, he can't possibly be as popular as before: this is an Ontario riding after all!
That being said, with polls being about the same as last election or slightly closer, the Tories must be in for the time being, although the scenario could easily worsen for them.
07 05 28 Durham Guy
This one is really a given. The Tories would have to win only 2 seats again before Flaherty would lose.
07 04 28 A.S.
Single out any GTA seat where a gain in CPC support is guaranteed to no longer be tentative, and it's this one. And beyond Flaherty's own ministerial virtues, Whitby-Oshawa itself strikes some kind of equipoised embodied Tory-target perfection: a solidly growing yet solidly centred middle-class case-study suburban seat that doesn't seem ‘out of hand’ one way or the other. *This* is the Canada whose solar plexus Stephen Harper is aiming for point blank. Like, forget Alberta; that's already in the bag. Ditto with the more rural/bible-belt/redneck/exurban-affluent Tory seats elsewhere in Ontario. The real fulcrum's here. And to understand why, one must also understand how it not-so-irrationally extrapolates out of what, in pre-Flaherty days, was a perfectly average puzzle piece within the Chretien/Martin Liberal GTA...
07 03 28 Rey D.R.
At this point, without a high profile Liberal candidate and the Conservative doing well in the polls... conventional wisdom is that locally well-liked Finance Ministers don't lose their seats.
07 03 21 905er
No Liberal candidate yet, big, national profile for Jim Flaherty, limited diversity in Whitby and northern Oshawa = safe Conservative riding.

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