Prediction Changed
6:37 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Whitby-Oshawa
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Jim Flaherty

2006 Result:
Jim Flaherty
29294
Judi Longfield **
25882
Maret Sadem-Thompson
8716
Ajay Krishnan
2407
Marty Gobin
274
Tom Cochrane
217

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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07 05 28 Durham Guy
74.13.127.245
This one is really a given. The Tories would have to win only 2 seats again before Flaherty would lose.
07 04 28 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Single out any GTA seat where a gain in CPC support is guaranteed to no longer be tentative, and it's this one. And beyond Flaherty's own ministerial virtues, Whitby-Oshawa itself strikes some kind of equipoised embodied Tory-target perfection: a solidly growing yet solidly centred middle-class case-study suburban seat that doesn't seem ‘out of hand’ one way or the other. *This* is the Canada whose solar plexus Stephen Harper is aiming for point blank. Like, forget Alberta; that's already in the bag. Ditto with the more rural/bible-belt/redneck/exurban-affluent Tory seats elsewhere in Ontario. The real fulcrum's here. And to understand why, one must also understand how it not-so-irrationally extrapolates out of what, in pre-Flaherty days, was a perfectly average puzzle piece within the Chretien/Martin Liberal GTA...
07 03 28 Rey D.R.
130.15.234.201
At this point, without a high profile Liberal candidate and the Conservative doing well in the polls... conventional wisdom is that locally well-liked Finance Ministers don't lose their seats.
07 03 21 905er
70.51.90.97
No Liberal candidate yet, big, national profile for Jim Flaherty, limited diversity in Whitby and northern Oshawa = safe Conservative riding.



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