Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

York-Simcoe


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:47
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Harrison, Mark Adam

Helman, Meade

Hodgins, Craig

Munro, Julia

Reszler, Gloria

Tay, Megan

Incumbent:
Julia Munro

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * JULIA MUNRO
    19,17346.23%
    JOHN GILBANK
    12,78530.83%
    JIM REEVES
    4,66411.25%
    NANCY MORRISON
    4,20510.14%
    CALEY MCKIBBIN
    3480.84%
    VICTOR CARVALHO
    2970.72%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1297233.24%
    2059252.77%
    361509.26%


  •  


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    11 09 19 AD
    24.246.31.39
    Easy PC win. It was Conservative before, it is likely to remain that way. Only real challenger would be the Liberals and I don't see that as likely in the riding, particularly with the PCs being consistently up in popular vote from the last election provincially.
    11 09 11 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    With Julia Munro closer to the retirement-age threshold than Laurie Scott, this is the seat where a lot of people felt John Tory should have run in lieu of his HKLB catastrophe--let that be a measure as to its safety.
    11 07 12 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Julia Munro should be able to hold onto this riding for provincial conservatives , well she's not as high profile as federal mp Peter Van Loan. riding is a mix of small towns and agricultural areas been pretty reliable for conservatives , Bradford has grown alot in recent years but that shouldn't alter the political landscape of riding much.
    11 02 25 Jeff Westlake
    24.235.153.34
    Julia Munro will hold this seat. A 6,000+ vote lead is comfortable enough, particularly when in came in the 2007 election, which was less than favourable for the Tories.



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