Prediction Changed
8:20 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

York North (55.5%)
Julia Munro
Barrie-Simcoe-Bradford (44.4%)
Joseph N. Tascona
Simcoe-Grey (0.1%)
Jim Wilson

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
Bradford is a large city in it’s infancy. There are many housing developments planned here, and some reports say within 10-20 years, it will be the size of Barrie. When all of that happens, the Liberals will pose a real challenge in the city, however for now, things are not quite as uncertain. While distribution would have most of the people living in this riding being from York, I’d guess that by this point in time, you have more then half your voters from Simcoe. Either way, this is a combo of two blue ridings into one stronger blue riding. Until the population of Bradford takes off, there is no way anyone else is going to win it. PC Lock.
07 09 27 Mike L
York-Simcoe has had a long history of supporting PC members, but many of those voters are ‘small c’ conservatives with no other option provincially. Mike Harris was very well liked here which was proven in the '03 results.
Anyway, as has been pointed out with the boundary changes the places where Munro polled the worst have now been eliminated.
The riding will not be in play until Munro retires, but even having said that, the inabilities of the Liberals to find solid candidates in this area puts them at an immediate disadvantage.
07 09 17 A.S.
Low-key and very old-school PC (as opposed to CPC--and not unlike federal counterpart Peter Van Loan in that regard), Julia Munro's serene in her survival of the '03 Tory debacle. With the Newmarket/Innisfil swap, expect even less of a ruckus this time around--in a not-implausible extreme case scenario, she could wind up the last Tory survivor in York Region...
07 09 14 care4all
Tottenham is not in York-Simcoe. Hopefully that is not all you are wrong about.
07 09 12 mb
The Tories own this riding. It's quite rural/small townish--the big smokes are Bradford, Tottenham and Keswick. Losing parts of Newmarket will solidify the Conservatives numbers even further.
07 09 01 RyanOntario
Guess i had misread the article i saw online about this riding , i had assumed they all were from York region. but either way i don't see that changing the outcome , Bradford is a large town but not really traditional ndp territory sure its close to the 400 and many voters commute to Toronto. all parties would open offices there because so many voters live there or in the area nearby.
The last federal election this riding was painted blue with signs so i'm guessing that will be the same this election.
07 08 31 care4all
Correction: all 3 ?major? candidates are NOT from York Region. The NDP candidate is from Bradford. So, does this mean she has any home field advantage? Notice Liberal and Conservative offices have been placed in Bradford this election.
07 08 10 RyanOntario
This riding is a likely conseravtive win even though its close to toronto / york region .
the redistribution has removed newmarket from this riding which will make it harder for the liberals. also it has no major cities only suburban bedroom communities.
an interesting thing will be to see how the simcoe half of the riding reacts to the fact all 3 major candidates are from york region and not well know in the towns of innisfil and bradford part of Joe Tascona's old riding.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
With the addition of parts of Simcoe county and the loss of the more liberal parts of York, Munro should win this by an even larger margin.

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