Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Dewar, John

Gerl, Sylvia

Gunn, Vicki

Pisani, Paul

Van Loan, Peter

Wesley-Esquimaux, Cynthia

Hon. Peter Van Loan

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • barrie-simcoe-bradford (77/227 Polls)
  • simcoe-grey (2/219 Polls)
  • york-north (108/220 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 23 someguy
    Minister Van Loan will win and I believe truly has the best intentions of the country at heart, he unfortunately became a lap dog for his leader, he is much better than this. He also is not stupid, he never would have run in the first place if there was a real chance that he would have lost, put any Conservative in this riding and he/she will win.
    11 03 31 C.A.B.
    Peter Van Loan won here last time with 57% of the vote and a 38-point margin over the Liberals, who were under 20%. Even in 2004, he won by 10 points. And in 2011, he'll win again. Quite possibly the safest Tory seat in the GTA - and certainly the safest in York Region.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Despite its proximity to the GTA, this is probably amongst the 10 most Conservative ridings in Ontario. They have won it by double digits in ever election since 2004 and in fact I cannot think of any time where the right was united and didn't win here.
    09 09 05 A.S.
    Some kind of glitch made this the only seat where I didn't have an entry for '08, but, anyway...Van Loan's nearest opponent in '08 had 18.7%, a record low that year for an Ontario Tory seat. Take that as a measure of safety.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Even with lower voter turnout in '08, Van Loan's total climbed. His more than 18,000 vote lead is simply too much for the Libs to overcome here.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster