Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale

Prediction Changed
2009-08-27 11:20:00

Constituency Profile


Colero, Larry

Donohoe, Kevin Peter

Hawkins, David

Hiebert, Russ

Keeping, Susan

Looye, Aart

Marlatt, Brian

Schouten, Mike

Staub, Hardy

Russ Hiebert

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • south-surrey-white-rock-langley (138/190 Polls)
  • surrey-central (43/241 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 18 rsg
    I'm cautiously giving a slight edge to Hardy Staub, now i know a lot of you will post and say how this a ridiculous prediction considering the vote margins of victory in the past. I will agree with AR, Hardy staub is well known in this riding and is a right of centre Liberal that would appeal to the voter base in this riding. AR is right the voters in this riding may be tired of Hiebert's act, he's not very effective as an MP and has the highest expense claims of all 308 MP's. also, the voters may feel it's time for a change and feel safe ab out voting for Staub.
    11 04 15 AR
    On first glance, it appears that Hardy Staub will need to steal 10,000 votes from the Conservative candidate to win. However, anyone who lives in this riding will tell you that there are a lot of people who are fed up with Russell Hiebert's antics. He's not actually a local, he's one of the biggest spenders in parliament, he seems to ignore his constituents and a challenge to his nomination as a Conservative was pretty much scuttled. While NDP and Green supporters may strategically align themselves with the Liberals, Conservative support will bleed to the numerous independent conservatives, the Christian Heritage Party and the Progressive Canadians. Also, did I forget to mention that Staub is a right-leaning Liberal?
    11 04 10 burlivespipe
    No one in their right mind should be predicting a shocker here -- that doesn't mean that it couldn't happen. The conditions for those are still to be made, but the first part is done with excellent challenger Hardy Staub carrying the Liberal torch. The incumbent continues to bleed support personally due to his appearance of entitlement, perceived incompetence and far-right beliefs. For Staub to pull off an election night upset it still requires a major national party wave (a knock-out punch at the debate, another Harper scandal catching fire) and the yet-to-be seen election machine performance on the day (Liberals are admittedly trailing badly across the west when it comes to volunteers)...
    11 04 01 rsg
    Longtime Municipal Coucillor Hardy Staubb just won the nod as the Liberal candidate which will now make this very interesting and may even swing to the Liberals although he will have to work hard. Hiebert has one of the highest expense claims of all of the Mp's in Ottawa. He's not particularly visible in the riding either.
    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    A rather wealthy outerlying suburb and at the tail end of the Fraser Valley, this should be an easy Tory win.
    11 03 29 Globe and Mail
    From Globe and Mail today:
    The opening shots of the federal election campaign in B.C. came from Tories firing on Tories in seats held by Tory MPs, according to reports of regional newspapers across the province.
    In Russ Hiebert’s riding of South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, former Conservative party member Hardy Staub, who was mayor of White Rock for nine years, was so upset with the Conservative party that he decided to run as the Liberal candidate in the riding.’ ‘I feel that our community needs somebody who will represent us in Ottawa rather than represent Ottawa to us,’ Mr. Staub said in a statement reported by the Peace Arch News. Mr. Hiebert will also face off against Aart Looye, who is running as an ‘Independent Conservative.’ Mr. Looye said Mr. Hiebert has not served the needs of the constituents. ‘He’s served the needs of the Conservative Party,’ said Mr. Looye. Several long-time Conservatives have resigned from the local association board in recent months following controversy arising from Mr. Hiebert’s extraordinary expense claims of $637,093, the highest for a B.C. MP and second highest in Canada in 2008-2009.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    Chalk up one more in the Conservative Column. Russ Hiebert will win an easy re-election, along the same margins of his 2008 victory.

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