Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
Surrey-Sud-White Rock-Cloverdale

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:34 AM 6/23/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:34 AM 6/23/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Romeo De La Pena
Russ Hiebert
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Judy Higginbotham
H. Kaur
Canadian Action canadienne:
Pat Taylor

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
South Surrey-White Rock-Langley (75.3%)
Val Meredith
Surrey Central (24.7%)
Gurmant Grewal

2000 Result/Résultats:
27,788 58.73%
10,626 22.46%
4,920 10.40%
2,571 5.43%
1,407 2.97%

South Surrey-White Rock-Langley
(138/190 polls, 53400/70771 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Surrey Central
(43/241 polls, 17535/97276 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
20/06/04 WM
Email: [hidden]
Pigs might fly. If they do, the Conservatives will lose this riding. No, seriouly, there's *very* little chance of anyone but a Conservative candidate being elected in this riding. Unless Val Meredith actively starts campaigning for someone else, Hiebert will take it easily. Call this one Conservative and be done with it.
10/06/04 Gametbox
Email: [hidden]
It is very surprising that you have this in the "Too close to call" column. There are several factors that point to a decisive win for the Conservatives.
1) This riding/area has gone Conservative (either Reform, CA, or PC) for the last 35 years.
2) It is full of rich, old senior voters, who are very Conservative in orientation.
3) The combined PC/CA vote is close to 70%!!! God, is there any riding that comes close to that in Canada?
4) With the national campaign going well, and the Conservatives historically strong showing in British Columbia, this riding is an easy win for the Tories.
This race isn't "too close to call" at all, its going Tory by a mile...
07/06/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
I am no longer convinced of CPC win - Judy H could win it. She has very different signs than other Liberals running in Canada. The focus on her signs is her.
The slogan in use should help her instead of being pulled down by the Martin anchor.
02/06/04 Old Political Hack
Email: [hidden]
How could this possibly be in the "too close to call" category? The combined Alliance/PC vote here was almost identical to Dewdney/Alouette in 2000 -- about 70%. That's not going to melt away overnight, especially with the current national trends going the way they are, combined with the demographic trends in the riding towards older, more affluent voters.
The other reality is that, in general election campaigns, the local candidate doesn't really account for much of the vote one way or another. It's always amusing to see partisans of one candidate or another on this board going on about how their candidate's brilliance, local roots and appeal will win the day, but the reality is that this is good for only a couple of percentage points at best -- helpful in a tight race, but that's about it. Rather, history shows us that plenty of high profile star candidates have gone down in flames to complete nobodies based on national trends. Witness General Lewis Mackenzie's losing run for the Conservatives in 1997. Can anyone name the Liberal who beat him? I know I can't...
28/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We're not so sure this should be in the "too close to call" category. Val Meridith lost the Conservative nomination because she was "not conservative enough". And people think this riding will vote Liberal now? Okay, granted the "dump Val" part of the riding association emptied the churches to get her kicked out, but we don't think they'd be so stupid to get rid of a popular MP and stick in a nobody that had no chance of winning. The Conservative candidate may be a nobody but he'll probably win his seat.
23/05/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
From their City of Vancouver base, the Liberals will likely extend their tentacles south into Richmond and perhaps into Newton-North Delta as well as Fleetwood-Port Kells but those seats will probably as far south as Liberal victories will go.
As a long-time city councillor, the Liberals have a much higher profile candidate than the CPC but at the end of the day voters will likely place their "X" beside the CPC in this traditional small "c" constituency.
Based upon the recent Compas poll, which had a larger sampling size for BC, and with the BC CPC result at 40%, the CPC appears to be regaining their first place position.
Of all of the BC ridings in the toss-up category, I would think that this would be the easiest to call.
24/04/04 D. Johnson
Email: [hidden]
Very safe conservative territory with a combined CP - Alliance margin of 22,000 in the last election. However, this margin will shrink considerably this time out. Liberal Judy Higginbotham is a well-known Surrey Councillor while her opponent, Russ Hiebert, appeared from somewhere in Vancouver to knock-off well-known incumbent CPC MP Val Meredith in the nomination meeting. Edge to Hiebert, but if local negative reaction to Hiebert continues to rise and Higginbotham runs a good campaign, the results could be interesting come election night.
08/04/04 MOB
I really fail to see how this could be too close to call. What are they holding out for - a sudden massive influx of liberal voters? This is pretty solid conservative country. The fact that the incumbant won't be running as an independent means no chance for vote splitting. Tory hold.
26/03/04 Brandon L.
Email: [hidden]
This is among the most solidly conservative areas, both provincially and federally, in all if BC. The new party whould hold on to the seat easily.
20/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
This is the conservative part of Surrey - lots of hobby farms and seniors. If the conservatives loss this, then they would down to a rump of less than a dozen seats in the country.
Liberals had their best chance here in 1997 when they convinced Wilf Hurd to jump up the fed side of things and did not manage to make a serious dent.
20/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
This general area has traditionally voted for the small "c" conservative candidate both provincially and federally. White Rock (and adjacent South Surrey) as well as the community of Cloverdale (southeast Surrey) are an extension of the south/south east metro Vancouver suburban ridings which are traditionally conservative in nature. Val Meredith recently lost the CPC nomination to another candidate who apparently was supported by the fundamentalist wing of the party. She has stated that she will return to her former career as a realtor. Nevertheless, with a combined CA/PC vote of around 69% in 2000, the Liberals will likely again place second.
19/03/04 Steve
Email: [hidden]
val meredith has said she would not run as an independant. This is a fairly conservative area. The interesting races will be in north surrey.
19/03/04 Liu Bang
Email: [hidden]
With Val Meredith out, this one becomes a strong pickup possiblity for the Liberals if their numbers stay up in the range they are now.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Meredith was defeated in her nomination meeting here. If she were to run as an independent it could make things interesting, I could see the Liberals trying to slip up the middle, or either Meredith or the new tory candidate winning. This riding is very much telling of all of BC. Most of the ridings are 2, of not 3 way real battles between the parties. BC will decide the next Prime Minister

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster