Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Saanich-Gulf Islands

Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:07:00

Constituency Profile


Hetherington, Renée

Loring-Kuhanga, Edith

Lunn, Gary

May, Elizabeth

Hon. Gary Vincent Lunn

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • saanich-gulf-islands (226/227 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 02 NF
    Elizabeth May has made a huge push in the last 2 weeks. Residents are realizing that green is the way to go in this riding.
    11 05 02 Lee Hamu
    Why has this prediction been changed from ‘too close to call’ even though EKOS has predicted it will swing Green http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/05/our-final-words-and-a-few-more-numbers-may-1-2011/ ?
    Furthermore, as previously mentioned, an oracle poll commissioned a week ago puts Elizabeth in the lead:
    As for claims from the previous poster that similar polling numbers were released in Central Nova before the 2008 election, to quote our prime minister ‘that is simply not true’. In Central Nova in 2008 as well as in the London North-Centre by-election, the polling released by the Green Party showed Elizabeth coming a close second days before the election. In both cases, the final vote count matched the polling.
    I believe this riding will be extremely close, but I'm calling it for the Greens
    11 05 01 frogg
    Actually, WAC, the green party did release a poll just before the 2008 election, but it had May in second place (http://greenparty.ca/node/8315). It was somewhat accurate for a riding poll (CON 37% to GRN 29%; the actual result was CON 47% to GRN 32%).
    11 05 01 keenobserver
    If there wasn't already enough momentum shifting the greens way, now there is this:
    A high profile conservative AND a former NDP MLA both publicly backing EMay? That, with everything else I have read here suggests that history will be made in Saanich-Gulf Islands. Elizabeth May will be the first elected Green Party MP. About time.
    11 05 01 A Johnson
    I think this one is still too close to call. Decima shows Greens ahead on Apr 28, Nanos shows Cons ahead on Apr 29 (but Nanos is known for Con bias), Ekos shows Greens ahead Apr 30. I hope that people in Saanich-Gulf Islands say no to Lunn's corruption and embrace Elizabeth May's message of positive change.
    11 05 01 Mr. MP
    @WAC, again not sure that you've got your facts straight. The poll from Central Nova had the green behind by 7%, this time it had them ahead by 7%.
    My impression is that the Greens have a very strong ground team and will GOTV quite well. It will be close...
    11 05 01 WAC
    For the record political pundit - the riding poll done by Oracle in Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca was paid for by Project Democracy, the riding poll by Oracle done in Saanich-Gulf Islands was paid for by the Green Party. And if a political party pays for and publishes a poll, then its just prudent to be skeptical about it, especially since the Greens as I recall published a similar poll in Central Nova last time and lost quite handily.
    11 04 30 VancouverIslander
    Did a quick informal poll at the rec centre: All women (all ages) voting Green or NDP (mostly Green). Under 30's men (guestimate), Green or NDP (evenly split). Middle age men (like me), an even split between Green, NDP and Conservative. Older men mostly Conservative. Green momentum (and some NDP) showing in on-property signs, social media going big on Green. First Nations big on NDP. Interesting lawn sign dynamic, Green and Conservative signs at same house, farmers overwhelmingly Green, Conservative signs actually coming down (five houses on my route to the rec centre). I change my projection to Green here.
    11 04 29 political pundent
    Forgiving for being skeptical of WAC reasoning for calling this riding for
    Gary Lunn but he has also called Esquimalt-Juan-de-Fuca for the conservative
    candidate based on a poll by the very same firm that did the poll showing
    Elizabeth May in the lead in this riding. 398 might not be much for a whole
    province but it would be for a single riding. Also I believe voters in this
    on the gulf islands will be more concerned about the environment than tax cuts for the rich and the oil companies. The might also be growing weary of Harper's constant fear mongering. WAC has stated why he or she assumes that the green party paid for that poll or had anything to do with it or what candidates he thinks can not afford lawn signs? project democracy paid for 6 other riding specific polls by the same firm that did the Saanich-Gulf Islands poll oraclepoll so I don't Mrs May had anything to do with it. As much as I would like to see the NDP sweep the island I still call this riding for Green Party leader Elizabeth May
    11 04 29 WAC
    Forgive me for being skeptical about a poll that the Green Party paid to have done (when many of the other candidates can't even afford signs...), a poll which shows both the Liberals and the NDP at something like 5% (unbelievably low). Given that the Greens are way down in the polls since 2008 - I still think Lunn pull it out by a comfortable margin.
    11 04 29 political pundent
    Considering a recent poll putting Elizabeth May ahead and the hundreds
    of volunteers she has as well as anti-Harper letters in press I seen
    and call ins to CPAC from people who see through Harper's grandstanding
    and fear mongering and concern over oil tankers in the Georgia Strait
    along with Gary Lunn's handling of the issue I believe he has finally
    held on for one election too many. I might be proven wrong but I believe
    the soft liberals and NDP we line up behind Mrs May and put her in
    office even if it is simply cause she is party leader.
    I am calling this riding for the green party
    11 04 28 TCR
    I don't fear the Green vote will get out. As someone who is voting strategically in this election for the first time, let me tell you - it is extremely motivating and makes you eager to vote! While I agree the poll shouldn't = Elizabeth wins, the liberal and NDP vote appears to have indeed collapsed!
    In Central Nova,the NDP failed to collapse for May and she was unable to win. If BOTH the liberal and NDP vote are truly around 10%, then May should win.
    11 04 28 Nikki
    One week ago I thought this was going to be a toss-up but know I am certain Elizabeth has won this seat. The Greens have more then 1000+ volenteer's in the Saanich Gulf Islands. People here are excited to make history some of my friend and family though they would never vote Green but know they are and so am I. At this point the real prediction is how Lunn will react to losing.
    11 04 27 MH
    It looks as if the ‘anybody but Harper’ vote is lining up behind Elizabeth May, which means that Gary Lunn will probably lose his seat next Monday. This would be a good thing. Lunn won't be a huge loss to Parliament, and the Greens deserve representation. In a more sensible system of voting they would already have it (I support proportional representation, German style). Still, this one is far from being in the bank: the outcome will depend on getting supporters to the polls.
    11 04 28 Marco Ricci
    Elizabeth May apparently has a large team of volunteers all over the riding - about 600 to 800 people. This is certainly a large ground operation and will help out a lot. Apparently there is a lot of strategic voting going on with many voters from other parties getting behind May. What would be helpful would be to see another poll, an independent one not commissioned for the Green Party, for this riding. Some additional information such as that could help fill in the final pieces of the puzzle here.
    11 04 27 JFBreton
    Ça vaut ce que ça vaut. Sondage réalisé la semaine dernière pour le compte du Parti vert. Selon LCN, May récoltait la faveur de 45 % des personnes interrogées, contre 38 % pour Lunn. Le Parti libéral et le NPD récoltaient pour leur part chacun 9 %. L'enquête a semble-t-il été menée les 18 et 19 avril auprès de 389 électeurs. La marge d'erreur est de 4,9 points, 19 fois sur 20. Reste maintenant à savoir comment se fera la sortie de vote.
    11 04 27
    As much as I would like to see the Conservatives lose a seat, I don't think it will happen with the Green vote not holding up this election. The grey hairs in this riding are too prevelent (not to mention they show up to vote) for the Conservatives to lose.
    11 04 26 Mr. PM
    @ Dude Abides, well obviously you didn't read the post below, the greens now are now ahead in the polls and with a lead of 7%, have a lead greater than the margin of error 4.9%
    The green campaign in sgi has drawn hundreds of volunteers from the riding and around the country. Through tapping into a national phone bank every single voter in the riding will have been called, and many areas of the riding have been canvassed twice. Top organizers from around the country went specifically to that riding to help out. And the campaign to elect Elizabeth May began 2 years ago(so they've had a lot of time to build).
    The poll confirms what is being seen on the ground, the race is close, but the Greens will win.
    11 04 26 Marco Ricci
    The fact that Elizabeth May is ahead in today's riding poll may indicate one of two things: 1. she is actually in the lead and doing well, 2. the poll was released because the Greens are still worried about the results and want to shore up their vote. It is also important to keep in mind that this poll was commissioned for the Green Party, rather than being done totally independently. Polls that are commissioned for a particular party sometimes tend to show inflated support for the party that commissioned the poll. Thus, the Greens may not be as high as this poll says. However, it could have a positive effect on May's campaign if non-Conservative voters now see May can win and decide to coalesce behind her. The challenge for May is that Green support appears to be down in B.C. this year, although so does Conservative support.
    11 04 26 Bernard von Schulmann
    Here is the link to the poll
    SGI riding level poll has May in the lead
    really? Fraser Smith ripped up his Conservative card? He is part of the old Reform back bone
    11 04 26 Andrew
    Never would've called this in a million years - but looks like May will actually pull it off. I think if it was a no name Conservative running or a better liked one this wouldn't be the outcome.
    So....Green party gets a seat, Harper gets a majority, and Jack Layton gets a chance at getting huge gains. What's going on here? LOL
    11 04 26 Micheal
    Elizabeth is the front runner in this riding. Regardless of how the Greens are doing nationally or in B.C. I would not be surprised if Gary Lunn pulled one of his dirty trick , like the NDP phone calls the day before the 2008 vote. The difference this time is it wont work. The NDP and Liberal candidates are both respectable women but the strategic vote is behind May.
    11 04 26 Dude Abides
    Are the Green Party people partaking of the Marijuana Party's herbal cigarettes. I remain perplexed as to the continuing persistence that May has any real hope of winning. She hasn't led a single poll and there's nothing but media talking heads desperate to fill airtime who give her any likelihood of success. Heck, while I'm calling this a Tory keep, I'd call this for one of the other mainstream parties (Liberal, NDP) before I called it for the Greens.
    11 04 26 K. Green
    The Green Party has just released the results of a riding-specific poll conducted April 18-19 that shows Elizabeth May in the lead, 45% to Garry Lunn's 38%. The Liberal and NDP candidates are tied in a distant third at 9%. http://greenparty.ca/media-release/2011-04-26/elizabeth-may-leading-saanich-gulf-islands
    Anecdotally, at a packed town hall held last week in the oldest, most conservative part of the riding (and presumed least likely to vote Green), Elizabeth May received a standing ovation while Gary Lunn was booed. Prominent local conservative Fraser Smith publicly tore up his Conservative Party membership card and endorsed Elizabeth May.
    11 04 25 Marco Ricci
    I'm aware that Nanos doesn't prompt for the Greens and so the Greens may be underrepresented, but other pollsters do prompt for the Greens which can cause them to be overrepresented. When voters are asked if they will be voting Green as one of the options, more people are likely to select it then waiting to see if they actually mention the Greens. It's hard to know which pollster is best at measuring the Green vote.
    Anyway, here is an article from today that discusses the challenges facing the different candidates in this riding:
    'Elizabeth May’s riding has history of upsets'
    11 04 24 Don SImpson
    The riding is shaping up as usual with a three way split of the votes and one close challenger. ELizabeth May has worked hard, but it is tough to really get interested in her campaign. She is the Micheal Ignatieff of gulf islands only here for herself and cares little about the local constituency. The fact that the greens are a joke nationally does not overcome her newcomer status. Internal polling within the NDP and the Conservative campaigns pute her at 18% and 21% respectively. Not enough to mount an upset. Gary Lunn has been a gentleman and responded well to local issues. COmbine that with the fact that Global warming is not a hot topic anymore, look for the greens to use this loss to find a better leader who is less antagonistic and more appealing to moderate voters.
    11 04 24 J Hal
    @ Marco
    Nanos has always polled low for the Greens, they had them at about the same during the last federal election. Other pollsters show the Greens at levels above or about the same as in 2008. Its a difference in their methodology. Angus Reid and Nanos are known for not promoting for Green Party support, and tend to get lower numbers. I believe Nanos only contacts landline phones as well, and much of the Green demographic only use cell phones. Just thoughts.
    Moving onto the riding I think Elizabeth May will speak by with a win here, just because of the sheer amount of time her team has spent on the ground in the riding. Quite a number of local figures and grassroots organizations have targeted support to Elizabeth May. The riding has a history of swinging voters so I think May be able to gain just enough momentum.
    11 04 24 Seth
    The Green Party may be tanking nationally, but that matters not here. Last time the anti-Conservative vote was split. Not this time. It is rallying around May. She will win.
    11 04 24 Andrew
    With regard to Marco's comment, the Nanos poll does not prompt for the Green Party anymore (while it does for the Conservatives, Liberals, NDP, and the Bloc in Quebec). Other polls that do prompt for the Green Party (although not as publicized as the Nanos polls) show the Green Party support to be apprximately 5-8%, which is roughly the same as the 2008 election. The nationwide support for the Greens is not as low as the Nanos poll might indicate.
    That being said, Saanich-Gulf Islands is a seperate issue. I think it all depends on how many people who are on the fence decide to vote May. May has run an excellent campaign here in the riding, and I don't think getting out the vote will be difficult for the Greens. Overall, I'm predicting a close win for May, with around 35% of the riding's popular vote.
    11 04 23 Marco Ricci
    The Green Party is down to 3.5% in the latest Nanos poll.
    If it stays like that, I think it will be difficult for Elizabeth May to win since that is only half of what the Greens got in 2008.
    The other challenge Elizabeth May has is that she is barely in the election news anymore. She was in the news for the first couple of weeks around the time of the debate controversy, but right now all the coverage is on the Conservatives vs. the Liberals vs. the NDP. She is getting lost in the shuffle. However, the lack of coverage probably hurts the Green Party more nationally than it does to her in her own riding.
    11 04 23 SouthpawPundit
    The current political climate bolsters my previous prediction here. The Green campaign is getting very little traction and the progressive, anti-Tory vote is rapidly coalescing around Jack Layton and the NDP, particularly in British Columbia and Quebec, a province whose tumultuous post-Quiet Revolution political history will manifest itself once again as its voters deliver a historic swing to the NDP.
    So anyways, back to the specifics for this riding. May herself is too strong of a candidate to allow the NDP's wave to manifest itself impressively here, and the Green brand is strong in this riding (relatively speaking) compared to most of the country. All these factors contribute to an easy hold for Lunn and the Conservatives while May edges out the NDP for second. The imploding Liberal campaign will finish a sorry fourth here, giving Ignatieff yet another reason to RISE UP = and pack his bags for the lecture halls and conferences of Massachusetts.
    11 04 22 jeff316
    May certainly garners a lot of overt sympathy, but there is also a lot of quiet discontent with her candidacy and her the impression that she feels she's entitled to win because she is who she is. But I believe Sandy's last point is correct. If May can attract enough non-voters, it might be enough to put her over the top. If non-voters don't come out of the wood-work for her, Lunn will win, again.
    11 04 19 Sandy
    I think Elizabeth will win by a small margin, she been here knocking on doors for almost two years. Every election is not the same, with Elizabeth May is a whole different game. She has a great chance of winning she needs around 15,000 need Green voters and shes got it in the bag when you include the NDP , Liberals , and even Conservatives that will cast their vote for her. Elizabeth will most benifit from people who did not vote last election, shes got my vote at least.
    11 04 19 Jason
    While she may be up against a fairly strong Conservative candidate, May can probably pull this one off. With the Liberals and New Democrats out of the race, the Green shouldn't have a lot of trouble unseating Lunn. May has been basically campaigning here exclusively.
    11 04 19 The progressive conservative
    Lunn is a dud but will, unfortunately, probably eek out another plurality here. May likely to come second but is just too strident to attract enough anti-con votes to be the consensus candidate (in fact her candidacy may encourage some cons to hold their noses and vote Lunn even if they don't like him much). What this riding needs is a consensus candidate on the left who can get rid of Lunn once and for all - even reasonable cons might support a strong LibNDPGreen candidate to get rid of the embarrassment that is Lunn.
    11 04 19 Marco Ricci
    James is certainly right that many NDP and Liberal voters will vote for Elizabeth May, but the challenge for her is that the large majority of them would have to vote for May in order for her to win. And the question is, how likely is that to happen? Most people think it's a pretty big challenge, and the CPAC profile on this riding recently pointed that out using several jars filled with jelly beans for each party to illustrate the large number of voters she needs to come her way. There is a mini-scandal out tonight in The Globe and Mail which connects Gary Lunn's office to an ex-girlfriend of Bruce Carson, but it probably won't be enough to make a difference:
    11 04 18 Rob
    Sorry to say the Greens have no chance in this riding despite what many posters have said. Liz May will get 25% with 30% as an upper limit if the Lib and NDP vptes falls apart. The Libs and NDP are running real people not just names on a ballot. Gary Lunn got 40%+ in 2008 and won even when everyone wrote him off since it was essenitally a 2 way race between him and a very Green/Socialist Liberal, (thanks to Lib dirty trick to get the NDP person to resign). He will get roughly 38-41% and beat May, with her 25-30%, with the Libs and NDP fighting for 3rd place.
    11 04 18 Bruce Carson?
    According to the Globe, Gary Lunn had a close working relationship with disgraced PMO bigwig Bruce Carson (who's under investigation for helping one escort girlfriend get a 20% cut of govt$$$ for water systems for First Nations). And, it turns out that Gary Lunn hired the niece of Bruce Carson's former escort (now convicted of fraud) for a position in his Ministerial office - even though she had no relevant experience and had no connection to the Conservatives other than being a relative of Bruce Carson's escort. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tory-mp-hired-niece-of-carsons-girlfriend-in-2008/article1990590/
    Question: will Conservative voters in SGI continue give their candidate a free pass when it comes to accountability?
    11 04 18
    I can't come up with the electoral math to believe that May can actually beat Lunn.
    Factors that could change my opinion in favour of thinking Elizabeth May will:
    - Real evidence the Liberals are not backing with Renee Hetherington and will get a result that is lower than their consistent vote base in this riding of 17%.
    - If polling shifts begin to occur with Conservative support for Seniors. Any movement from Seniors in favour of the Green party is big here, but in general, any movements against the Conservatives here is important. Saanich - Gulf Islands population has an average age of 48--the highest in Canada
    - If NDP voters are completely dropping any semblance of a campaign for Edith and are completely backing May.
    - Provincial polling for the Greens in BC stays strong and moves up.
    - I would need to see all these factors happening in order to believe May could take it.
    Briony Penn got enough strategic votes from the Left to beat Lunn last time. She got 25,366 votes over Lunn's 24,717. But Lunn beat her because Conservatives realized they could actually lose this one and came out in droves to stop it, giving Lunn a new high of 27,997 votes, 4000+ new conservative voters.
    The Liberals will get the afterflow effect of Briony and this is indicative as their campaign is still energetic this around. Renee is not a bad candidate and Liberals who are voting Elizabeth for strategic reasons do it with disappoint--the Liberals out here DO like their candidate.
    If you do the math for the greens it's nearly impossible:
    May needs to recover 20,000 votes over the last Green candidate (who got 6700 voteS) in order to have a chance of winning. When the Greens did well in 2004 under Andrew Lewis, you could see that it came at the expense of the NDP losing about 4000 of the typical 17,000 votes they get in this riding (bringing them down to around 13000 votes that time). The Liberal vote appeared unaffected.
    Briony hit 25,356 last election, 8000 more than the 17,144 votes Liberals consistently receive for this riding. Let's say for the sake of argument that the gain came entirely from NDP voters.
    Many NDP voters proved in that election that they are willing to stay home if their candidate is not running. If you take a look at the number that still voted for Julian, minus the extra votes that went to Briony Penn, we know that about 5000 NDP voters stayed home, while one could argue about 8000 voted strategically. The final 3000 still voted for Julian even if he wasn't on the ballot.
    Let's say May could get more than Briony of the NDP strategic vote and pull in around 10,000 votes. She's still at least 10,000 votes short of winning. Even if she could cut into Liberal support below their base of 17% of electors, she's still short of Lunn.
    Renee will split with Elizabeth May, and sadly, Lunn will take it.
    11 04 16 Political Watchdog
    Only one poll counts: the ballot box besides national polls do not always reflect what is happening locally a lot of people in this riding are concerned about tankers in the Georgia Strait and that could help Elizabeth May as well as the fact that she has been knocking on doors for over a year and the longer someone is an incumbent the more baggage they may carry with them. I don't know about the sign war but I know the liberals and NDP are running first time candidates that might not be well known beyond their local community. And despite what other commenter's say the Green Party is neither a left or right wing party. OH and there is an non-partisan grass roots group called catch 22 that is recommending all the anti-Lunn voters get behind Elizabeth May.
    11 04 17 James
    A lot of the Liberal and NDP voters will vote Green just so Lunn wont win. Their also been some Conservatives going Green. Its going to be a close race but I think Elizabeth is going to end up the winner, I was voted Liberal last election but Im voting for Elizabeth this time around.
    11 04 16 The Jackal
    Liz May should ran here in 2008 then she would have a good shot at winning the riding. With Green support stagnant nationwide it will be the same old story here. The three centre-left parties will split the vote and Mr.Lunn will came up the middle again.
    11 04 16 JJ
    The lawn sipn battle is currently all May. Last time Penn was the clear sign leader. I think after the April 22 all candidates meeting, May will have pulled ahead of Lunn as she is a very strong presence and Lunn has some baggage that he will have to defend.
    11 04 14 andy in victoria
    I live in the southern portion of this riding. For what it is worth,in terms of lawn signs, May is literally the only game in this part of town. I have not seen a single NDP or liberal sign and only one CON. May has four on my street. Last election, my house was the only one with a sign (lib). I have talked with a number of neighbours and friends and all plan to vote Green this time around and are motivated to do so. This will be closer than last time for Gary and I think Lunn may be in trouble. I am a bit worried about what kind of ground game the Greens will have, the office in this part of town was literally hit by a truck a few weeks ago and is still under repair. When I called to request a sign they said they were out..do not seem to be very well organized, but I could be wrong.
    11 04 14 Dimitri
    Elizabeth has a really good chance in this riding. It will be a very close race, the liberals and ndp will vote for Elizabeth because of strategic voting. A lot of people are tired of Gary Lunn, Elizabeth needs around 20,000 more votes to win. I think she will get a lot of first time votes as well. I was in the Saanich Gulfs a couple of days ago and the lawn sighs alone it looks like shes got it in the bag.
    11 04 14 Dr. J.
    I am afraid that I have to call this one for Lunn and the Conservatives. There is no coalition in this riding: the Liberals, Greens and NDP and pushing hard so the non-Conservative vote will be split three ways. There is a bedrock of 30-35% percent Conservative vote in this riding that will vote for anyone sporting blue. Yes, the Gulf Island have a fair number Green voters -- but there are also lots of super rich living there who vote Conservative. (Property values are higher on Saltspring than they are in Victoria -- and that is saying something.) The Saanich peninsula is home to lots of farmers and the rural vote typically goes Tory. With the rest of the vote split three ways, Lunn will get in with a small plurality. He may need to take only ~32% of the vote to win.
    11 04 14 keefr
    The Green Party will not be able to bite enough into the major party's votes to pull it out. They will probably come close, but not close enough. The wealth in this riding will hand Lunn yet another narrow victory.
    11 04 13 A dude
    I don't know what kind of quick analysis would lead you to believe that the Greens have ever approached the Liberals. Election results clearly show that analysis to be false. At their highest point, the green party came within 6400 votes (17 082 - 10662 or about 10%). That was in 2004. Since then the Green party has barely reached the 6500 mark at all.
    This is not to say that this time will be the same. I still think May has a good chance, but that analysis was a poor one.
    11 04 13 Hemril
    Gary Lunn is one of the most inept MP's I have ever met. He was a junior minister by default because of the need for geographic representation in the cabinet. He always gets away with less than 40% of the vote.
    This one is to me too close to call and should not be compared with the Central Nova fiasco by Ms. May. It was a poor choice for a green party leader.
    Saanich Gulf Islands is the only riding in Canada where the Greens have won ballot boxes.
    She will win almost all the votes in the Gulf Islands because people living there have chosen an ecological lifestyle and the Greens represent their values.
    For the Saanich part of the riding I cannot say.
    But it surely the best place for the Greens to try to get elected, no question about it.
    11 04 13 John
    A quick analysis of this riding shows the NDP and liberals essentially tied in the past, whereas in the last election a surge of support went to the liberals from the NDP in the last election. This suggests to me this riding has distaste for the conservatives and will vote strategically. I expect to see this same surge again, and expect liberal supporters to move away this time and support green if it means knocking out a con seat. Its all math.
    11 04 12 Tom
    I don't live in the riding but have spent a lot of time here over the past few years and there is no way Elizabeth May is going to win this one. It is exactly the same as in Cenral Nova during the last election. May gets all the hype but on the ground her vote does not justify it.
    She is cursed with a fearsomely unattractive personality and physical appearance, and with a shrill voice which she appears always to be using to complain about some injustice done to her party.
    I have spoken to many voters here and have yet to find anyone with a good word to say about her. Not a surprise to me.
    I appreciate this is not scientific but in democratic elections you need to be an attractive candidate and May is not.
    11 04 11 Andrew M.
    According to an in-depth poll commissioned by the Green Party, the Greens are looking very good in the riding, with numbers improving over time. (The last numbers showed them to be pretty much tied with Conservative Gary Lunn).
    11 04 10 Cade Suffolk
    Despite what someone posted previously, Andrew Lewis was not an unknown Green candidate. He was the deputy leader of the BC Greens and was a well established resident of SGI who had run in several provincial and federal elections. The Green Party made similar all out drives to win this riding in '04 and '06 and made bold claims that they were going to win. They topped out at 16%...nowhere even close. May has been campaigning here full time for more than a year, but Lunn has been at it longer.
    11 04 10 burlivespipe
    It is to laugh when anyone tries to draw comparisons between decent MPs (like Savoie) and Lunn. One is capable, the other is not. The reason Lunn won last time was dirty tricks -- fake messages from auto diallers, blatant campaign smear jobs etc. However, his main opponent last time was much more formidible than May -- who would make a decent MP; Hetherington is by far the best candidate in this riding but thanks to another split between Green, NdP and Liberal, the mini-character will likely coast in again.
    11 04 10 Stevo
    Who knows. BC is always the toughest province to predict each election campaign (this is the province that gave a MAJORITY of its seats to the NDP in 1988!), and Vancouver Island is probably the toughest region within BC to predict since all four parties (including the Greens) have some genuine strength.
    Although Lunn is likely to win again, I would not at all rule out the possibility of Liberal and NDP voters coalescing around Elizabeth May - it would certainly put this small riding on the map to send the first Green MP to the House of Commons. Lunn's margins were never all that big.
    Given the above, an accurate prediction here is almost impossible.
    11 04 08 M.S.
    I think people overlook the effect of a candidate that is well known, intelligent and is perceived to have real integrity. In my riding of Victoria, Denise Savoie continues to win because of the good reputation she built as a city counsellor. David Anderson who preceded her had a similar personal reputation (albeit a different style and ideology). Polling numbers in Victoria, as I recall, have been (relatively) high as a result, because the less ideological voters are more likely to show up when such a candidate is on the ballot. None of the previous challengers to Lunn -- Briony Penn included -- match Elizabeth May for name recognition and positive reputation. When there is no one that the ‘average’ voter knows and trusts to be a sensible trustworthy representative, the ‘average’ voter either stays home or votes for (or against) the leader. This has served Lunn well in the past. I think many of the non-aligned people who didn't show up in the previous elections just didn't see anyone that inspired them to bother to change their representative. This time May offers a strong alternative for these voters. I think May wins in a squeaker (and Lunn calls for a recount).
    11 04 08 Saanich resident
    I'm not sure what you mean, henrik. In 2008 a strong Liberal candidate ran against Lunn when there was no NDP opposition and an unknown Green candidate. This year we have a strong Green candidate, while both the Liberals and NDP are campaigning hard in this riding (for some reason). Not only will Lunn win this, he'll win it with 50% more votes than the next highest candidate.
    11 04 06 Flatland Man
    Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina, saying that the GP needs to poll at 15-20% is in unfair and inaccurate statement to make. Polling numbers in BC are hard to pin down as their as ridings in BC tend to trend quite uniquely in Canada. The Greens could poll at anywhere from 0-10% provincially and still win this riding whereas they could also poll at 30-40% and not win a single riding whatsoever either. While I still have the CPC ahead here just slightly, if everything works out for Elizabeth May and the Green Party this riding can quite reasonably go Green come May 2.
    11 04 06 henrik
    May has this election in the bag. There's no more splitting of the anti-Lunn vote this time with a strong opponent like Elizabeth May in the running.
    Many people here are very frustrated with Lunn's embarrassingly poor performance in government (firing of a nuclear safety regulator for refusing to allow the quick restart a 50 year old reactor before necessary repairs could be made, being but one example).
    11 04 05 RetroRyan
    I'm a resident of this constituency and it is very likely that Gary Lunn will be reelected here. During the last federal election, the Liberals were unable to capture the riding under the most favourable circumstances available to them - namely the nomination of Briony Penn, an all-but-in-name green candidate from Salt Spring Islands. The Liberals also had the advantage of the NDP candidate dropping out due to scandal, even though his name still appeared on the ballot. Furthermore, Penn was able to outflank the Greens in the riding by co-opting their platform. Despite all of these advantages, Penn was not able to win.
    I'll give them credit, the hippies here are relentless and think that it is their God given right to win this riding, for whatever reason. But Elizabeth May will still lose. The elderly voters of Sidney are not a natural voting block for May, neither are the wealthy residents of Dean Park and other neighborhoods of North Saanich. Furthermore, many of the farmers of Central Saanich are not a natural voting block for May, especially those who are non-organic farmers. Driving through the neighborhood of Cordova Bay, I see very little enthusiasm for May, as most of the lawn signs are Conservative. Also, no blue-collar voters will vote Green as it is suicidal for their future employment prospects. Elizabeth May will win Saltspring Island and some of the other islands, and she might take some anti-conservative votes near the Victoria-Saanich border. The Liberals and NDP are both running strong candidates. Expect the NDP candidate to win strong votes from the reserves. Once again, the leftist vote will be split three ways.
    11 04 05 KH
    I'm not happy to make this prediction, but Renee Hetherington the Liberal candidate is not weak nor is she going to back down. The Saanich-Gulf Island Liberals are an organized bunch, especially after nearly tasting victory with Briony last time.
    With almost all their hopes dashed in Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca and with Victoria being a battle between NDP and Liberal... expect to see a relatively strong amount of Liberal energy get focused on Saanich-Gulf Islands.
    Most of them know that Renee won't win, but are betting on her establishing herself this time to come back and beat lunn next time.
    Regardless... the Libs aren't uniting behind May, and will provoke a vote split. Even with Briony where it was a very clear two-way race with Libs/Greens/NDP relatively united, Lunn couldn't be unseated. May won't be able to pull it off.
    11 04 05 A dude
    @Maj I would be interested in where you got this riding level data. If it is from the seat-by-seat projection at threehundredeight.com, these are not polls. The numbers on that page are are projections.
    Since the projections are mostly based on a proportional swing model (one that mostly relies on data from the last election and province-level polling), it doesn't do a good job of predicting support for unusual ridings like this one. Since there are many factors that make SGI unusual, the projection is mostly based on subjectively applied modifiers and weightings, and not on much useful data. Thus it is not that robust or reliable.
    11 04 05 Flatland Man
    I'll be calling a Green Party victory here. May has everything to lose if she does not win this riding here her political career is over. Expect her to work harder than any of the other candidates. Although it would mean she wouldn't be much more than a independent in parliament it would be the breakthrough the Greens have hoped for. Still a lot of work to do but this is not outside the realm of possibilities by any means.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    Despite a close showing last time around for the Liberals this is a Green-Tory race although the advantage is definitely in favour of the Conservatives. The Gulf Islands may vote Tory, but the problem is the Saanich portion is generally fairly conservative considering it is suburban and semi-rural and has a large senior population. Gary Lunn has the edge, but considering the best he ever does is the low 40s, he could lose if traditional NDP and Liberal votes line up behind Elizabeth May.
    11 04 04 Maj
    I don't live in this riding however there is no way May is winning this. Look at current polling numbers, and i'm talking riding poll not national or provincial. Lunn has 36% and May 27.5%. This 8.5% lead is massive and unless something change the general campaign I don't that Ms.May can makeup this much gap.
    11 04 04 Mike
    @Michael: The comparison to Central-Nova is interesting. Are we certain that the removal of the Liberal candidate benefitted the Greens instead of the Conservatives? Do we know for certain what the vote totals would have been? I'm not entirely convinced that the absence of a Liberal was a bonus for the Greens.
    11 04 04 TM
    I have never voted for the Greens in a federal election and I don't live in the riding, but I live in nearby Victoria and I think that May has a serious chance. She demolished Lunn in a short televised debate on the weekend - I felt sorry for Lunn. People say that since Briony Penn couldn't do it for the Liberals with a dropped NDP candidate that May can't win, but remember that Dion was extremely unpopular so that cost Penn a lot of votes. May doesn't have an unpopular leader issue since she IS the leader. Both the NDP and Liberal candidates are political newcomers. And May has been VERY visible in the whole Victoria area. I understand her campaign has visited most of the riding well before the election started. A friend told me her neighbours have an Elizabeth May sign even though she described them as 'rednecks' that normally don't even vote. Her potential to drag out a lot of undecideds / non-voters could make a big difference.
    11 04 04 Saanich resident
    Since the well-respected environmentalist Liberal candidate couldn't beat Lunn when it was essentially a two-way race in 2008, I doubt May will be able take his seat in the 2011 election.
    11 04 02 Michael Fox
    Look at this:
    It's the prediction from Central Nova in the last election. It's filled with people saying May was going to win. What happened? Peter MacKay's margin of victory actually increased. He won by over 14% vs. May, and the Liberals didn't even run a candidate.
    May's going to split the vote. The NDP vote will increase vs. last time, while the Liberals will lose votes to both of them. Gary Lunn will at leats hold his support, but instead of winning by 4%, he's going to win by 10% this time against a divided opposition.
    11 04 02 MH
    Gary Lunn was a bit lucky to win in 2008, and he may just have run out of luck. A spirited four-way race favours him, but if the Liberals and NDP run minimal campaigns, Elizabeth May should be able to beat Lunn. Alternatively, since the Libs got close in the year of Dion, they may have a shot at the riding this time if they don't lose votes to the Greens. This will be a very interesting one to watch on election night. Right now it's TCTC.
    11 04 02 J. Keller
    ‘The NDP shoots its own progressive ideals in the foot by running against strong Green candidates like May or against left-wing Bloc Quebecois MPs.’
    Correct. Remember also in 2008 even after Julian West dropped out, phone calls went out to the NDP base reminding them to vote NDP. This must have been a Conservative trick as the Liberals and Greens would not gain from it.
    Given the dirty tricks, four competitive parties and the total failure of the Greens to sign up second-choice votes for vote-swapping in either 2008 (when thousands of Greens across the country were unable to swap into this riding) or 2011 (when as noted below only 2500 supporters are identified), edge has to go strongly to the incumbent here.
    A nation-wide commitment by the Greens to vote swap, and either the NDP or Liberals running a purely paper campaign here, could change the picture.
    Lunn is, contrary to some statements here, vulnerable as a minister since he was the man who effectively fired the head of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission. That ought to play in a place fearing radiation from Japan right now. If the Greens can't win under these conditions, they can't win at all, and should rebuild their entire organization as a vote swapping machine.
    11 04 02 Mike
    I can't believe that this one is sitting in CPC and not Too-Close-To-Call. The last polls in SGI were far too close to call. Given the large campaigns on the ground and that Harper visited here within days of the start of the campaign, this one will depend on the local campaigns on the ground.
    11 04 01 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    At -CURRENT- Polling levels, the Greens do not have what's needed to win here. I say that as a Green supporter and voter. If the polls change, and the Greens could manage a consistent 15-20% in the province, then my prediction may change. Until then, CPC hold.
    11 04 01 RJF
    The Green Leader has the momentum in this riding and the Party has pulled out all the stops to get Ms. May elected and finaly get their long awaited seat. The loss of the leaders debate probably helps May here as most Canadians feel that she should be included and that the greens have been robbed by the FPTP electoral system. The broadened platform, the increased party support and the sygnificant funding levels coupled with Lunns lack lustre appeal in SGI will make for a squeeker win for the Greens.
    11 03 31 North Saanich resident
    Too close to call. Lunn won with 37% last time but with an NDP candidate who quit but had his name on the ballot and still got votes, and a high profile Liberal. Now, Greens have a high profile candidate, NDP less profile but locally rooted and Aboriginal woman who wins individuals. NDP campaign looks poorly financed and not having much impact yet. Liberals seem to have no presence. Greens have lots of presence and momentum. Conservatives have a well oiled machine but lots of unpopularity with the candidate for a slew of reasons. If the Greens continue making momentum they could take the seat, and right now they are, if lawn signs and coffee shop talk are any indication. Also a lot of the networks behind municipal council candidates in Saanich and North Saanich are working on the May campaign.
    11 03 31 Lowlander
    The Libs came a close second last time but that was with an NDP candidate who was on the ballot but who had withdrawn from the race. Still, May's name recognition should help her grab some NDP vote, despite the Greens not being a particularly left-of-centre party. I'd bet there will be NDPers who vote for her ‘just because the Greens should have a seat’. Ignatieff's tepid leadership and the fact that the Liberal candidate and May overlap on a lot of things suggest to me that May will, if anything, fare better at grabbing Liberal voters than she would NDP voters. And she'll be getting tons of media coverage. I say May squeaks out a win here.
    11 03 28 jeff316
    If the Greens want to push May through, they need to pick a riding where the NDP vote is comprised solely of soft NDP voters; the kind, caring, empathetic types, the granolas and the Moms and the center-lefters that don't trust the Liberals. The problem with this riding is that it contains both sides of the core NDP vote - the ones previously mentioned, but also the pro-labour, working-class, class-warfare types that won't move their vote to a socially-liberal, fiscally-conservative bunch of Greens. The problem for the Greens is that if they want to attract a greater share of the NDP vote, they're going to have the swing left. But the minute they do that, they start losing the slightly-right and centrist voters they've courted for the last ten years. Lunn will win with his largest plurality. I mean, the NDP candidate still got 5000 votes in the last election, after he was disgraced and dropped out!
    11 03 28 SouthpawPundit
    Even if the worst polls (from the government's perspective, anyways) that put the Tories in the mid-30s are true and the ones that have the Tories in the 40s are bunk, I can't see how Lunn loses here. I acknowledge that this is not a particularly right-wing riding (in spite of the way Tory apologists seem to frame thing) at all and that Lunn hasn't won north of 40% of the vote since 2000, but at the same time the NDP and Liberals are both too strong for the anti-Tory vote here to simply coalesce around May. In fact, May running here just exacerbates this issue by providing the anti-Lunn vote with one more way to divide itself.
    This comment is not so much a comment about the weakness of Green politics in Canada (popular support in Canada and Germany is roughly comparable), as it is about the fact that Green apologists should realize that their party is a joke from a organisational perspective and lacks the roots of the Big Three, and that for those reasons, should not expect their leader to breeze through wherever she's parachted. Sadly (as I think May and her party have far more to offer Canadians than either the Liberals or the Tories), none of this will change until we see electoral reform in this country.
    That said, while I am a card-carrying New Democrat, I think the NDP shoots its own progressive ideals in the foot by running against strong Green candidates like May or against left-wing Bloc Quebecois MPs. A Quebec City, Louis-Hebert, riding held by labour activist (who had beaten a right-wing Liberal cabinet minister in 2004) fell to the Tories by fewer than 200 votes in 2006. The activist was a BQ incumbent and the New Democrat won 7,000 votes.
    Obviously, I'm not trying to compare a few islands off the coast of BC to Quebec; rather, I'm merely pointing out that left-leaning parties need to stop their obsession with running 308 candidates if they don't want to keep needlessly handing ridings over to the Liberals and the Tories. There's no need for a BQ candidate in Outremont, a Green candidate in Toronto Danforth or Trinity-Spadina, or a New Democrat in Louis-Hebert or Sannich-Gulf Islands.
    Lunn wins by about 10 points.
    11 03 27 Erik
    Gary Lunn has been nothing but a Harper follower for years. He has been demoted within the party and does noting for his constituents other than quote the Harper bible. Now that May is running for the Greens in this riding she may be able to pull enough of the NDP and Liberal voters her way. Many voters in this riding are just trying to figure where to place their vote to oust Lunn, this may be their chance. Remember the last election, Gary Lunn 24416, everyone else 41305. It could happen.
    11 03 26 J. E. L.
    May figures she'll sweep the hippie vote on Saltspring Is. She's right. Big deal. They were green before and there aren't that many of them. But in Sidney and surrounding areas they're mostly retirees from the Prairies. Which way do you think they'll vote? Besides, this is a place where it takes a long time for newcomers to be accepted. May is doomed. Fortunately this should be the last time we'll have to listen to her screeching, condescending voice. Lunn easily.
    11 03 26 John
    I have to agree with WAC here. The one thing Elizabeth May has going for her is a fairly high profile nationally as the Green Party leader.
    For her to gain votes, they have to come from somewhere. So which party is going to lose support so the Greens can gain some? The losers for a stronger Green showing are, in my opinion, the Liberals and the NDP.
    So the riding will stay Conservative.
    11 03 25 Ron
    The wild card in the race is a popular local candidate for the NDP who is a Saanich school trustee and a small business person of aboriginal ancestry - Edith Loting-Kuhanga. An unknown Liberal candidate, and May - who appears to be steadily losing support - may well make it turn into another BC NDP - tory battle.
    11 03 20 WAC
    There are a number of partisan Greens who are suggesting May has a chance but I doubt it for the following reasons:
    1) According to democraticspace.com - May and the Greens had only identified approx. 3,500 supports in the riding after spending more than $300,000.00 and over a year of work. This was far fewer than they had identified in Guelph before the last election (approx. 6,000), spending far less money.
    2) Membership in the Green party has been dropping nationally, and fell by about 20-25% last year, from approx. 10,500 to 8,200.
    3) They are down in the polls compared to where they were polling a few weeks before last federal election. Admittedly it is higher (in some instance) than the 6.5% of the vote they received nationally in 2008, but before the 2006 and 2008 election they were polling higher than they are now.
    4) The Conservative have retained their polling numbers both nationally and in BC
    5) Lunn is a low-key cabinet minister who hasn't had a gaffe
    In short, the Greens are struggling (prehaps deceptively so), and the Conservative and Lunn are doing as well or better than they have. I just don't see how the numbers add up for the Greens and May. If her star power was enough in and of itself to win a riding, she would have won the byelection in London in 2007, that was the perfect storm. I don't see how she could possibly win here. I expect Lunn to win quite comfortably with his regular 40(ish)% of the vote. May to come a strong third with just over 20%.
    11 03 19 GJJ
    I agree with Dude Abides and am perplexed why Saanich-Gulf Islands is perennially viewed as the riding that will deliver the first Green MP or MLA. The last federal election demonstrated the weakness of this proposition. Even with a high-profile Green defector running for a long-established party pushing an environmental agenda and the NDP candidate dropping out of the race, Lunn still won the riding easily. I suspect that May will garner fewer votes than Penn in 2008 as she has no roots in the riding and Penn's vote splitting among the Liberals, NDP and Greens. The more interesting question is not if May will win (she won't) but if May will still be leader of the Greens in a year.
    11 03 12 Seth
    I predict that the next election will have the lowest voter turnout in Canadian history. Liberals are uninspiring; the Conservatives have lost credibility in the ‘open and transparent’ department and have proven themselves worse than their predecessors. If May can work hard enough to capitalize on voter disillusionment then she could take this seat.
    11 03 07 Dude Abides
    I am constantly perplexed by the Green predictions for this riding that always come between elections. Despite losing handily each time, the delusion that the Greens will break through here persists.
    11 02 02 J.Hal
    For any party to be building momentum the population needs to be engaged in its political process. Canadians do not seem to have too much optimism in their politicians, and have been abandoning the ballot box in increasing numbers. I tend to think that any set of by-elections where voter turnout reached a high of 32%, do not represent much of voter trend, especially across Province.
    Elizabeth May and the Greens did a lot of research when they chose the riding. Not only does it have a strong Green history, but the riding's history of support for environmental issues make May a wild-card when entering the race. Even Penn, the 2008 federal Liberal candidate who finished 2600 votes behind Lunn had a previous history with the Greens. The previous election saw the withdrawal of the NDP candidate (dropping roughly 20% of their support), Green ceiling at 10%, and a Conservative hold at 46%. The Liberal candidate only managed to gain 13% momentum, and it I think its unlikely that the rest of the NDP loss went to the Conservatives.
    Now that the Liberals (who also have a new party Leader), NDP, and Greens (who's Leader is running in the riding) have new candidates, expect the numbers to shift around a bit. Don't underestimate the Greens' ability to attract a chunk of the small-c conservative who don't like the Harper-style of conservatism. People tend to dismiss the Greens as radical and left-wing, when in reality they have a much more centrist approach to economics. Penn has also dropped out of the race, and the Liberals have introduced a first-time candidate to face Lunn.
    If May upsets Lunn it won't be by draining all of the support from the left, rather it will be by creating a big enough vote-split between all four parties to be able to push ahead. All of the parties now have somewhat serious contenders for the seat. May's previously shown ability to draw support from a mix of parties might be just what the Greens need to take their first seat in the House.
    11 01 27 Marco Ricci
    Bear and Ape, I think you misunderstood my previous post. I did not say that the poor results in the federal by-elections meant a direct loss of support in this riding, nor did I say those other ridings were 'hot spots' where the Green Party was expected to do well. I simply pointed out that for a party that needs to be building momentum until the next election and demonstrating that it is still relevant, the results of the last 7 by-elections since 2008 do not bode well for the Greens. They weren't expected to be contenders in those ridings, no. But getting numbers as low as 1% when you are trying to be a contender means that people aren't even voting Green as a protest vote nowadays.
    Now, to focus on S-GI in particular, this riding was always going to be difficult for May and the Greens to win. It requires almost all of the non-Conservative vote coming behind a candidate in order to defeat the Cons. Even Briony Penn, despite having the advantage of a disqualified NDP candidate, couldn't do that last time. Unlike the Liberals or the NDP, the Greens are not a mainstream party, and not as many people may gather behind them to defeat the Cons as they would with a Liberal like Briony Penn or an NDP candidate. May may finish lower than Penn. Remember, while May did finish 2nd in Central Nova, Peter MacKay ended up winning by a larger margin than he did in 2006. May is going to have a challenge aligning all the forces behind her here.
    11 01 15 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We have to strongly disagree with Marco Ricci's post, re: low Green results in the byelections signalling lost support here. Both ridings mentioned are not now, nor ever were, Green party hot spots. One wouldn't expect the Greens to have done well in either cases. The actual byelection in Vaughan was really a referenum on Fantino with those who favored him voting CPC and those against voting Liberal. This is evident as all other parties vote completly collapsed below 2%. As for Winnipeg North, the Green vote did suffer but you have to keep in mind that the Liberals and NDP both had candidates with a strong presence. During federal elections there is much greater focus on the party leaders/platform and Liz May was viewed very positively by many voters in 2008. it was her presence the bolstered the party's vote. One should expect that she would bump up her party again in a federal vote. As for her prospects in Saanich-Gulf Islands: Don't read into the byelections at all. This is by far a ‘Green friendly’ riding and she will make a splash here. Will it take here to Ottawa...that remains to be seen...
    10 12 17 GoGo
    By-elections are not an accurate predictor of party support. Based on that wisdom parties would be all over the map. Poor Green results in two of the three by-elections are do to a Liberal increase in Winnipeg North which saw all other parties decline dramatically as well as a fierce two horse race in Vaughan which saw both the Greens and ndp suffer greatly.
    I'm not sure EMAY will be able to pull it off but they certainly have been putting significant resources in to the riding, much more than in Central Nova and London North Centre, and previous activity bodes well for the Greens. If the Liberals in Winnipeg North can unseat the NDP in Judy W-L's old riding than there is certainly hope the Greens will do the same in SGI.
    10 12 09 Marco Ricci
    The Green Party has not performed well in the by-elections since the 2008 election. Just recently it only received 1% of the vote in Winnipeg North and 1% of the vote in Vaughan. We're going to need to see Green Party support rise higher before we can predict Elizabeth May being successful here. So far the Green numbers in Canada are not too good.
    10 09 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    If the apparent current voter backlash holds, Lunn's goose is cooked. Not saying May would win...though the poll numbers are looking good for her at the moment.
    10 08 23 RD
    Voters in the UK and now Australia have elected their first Green MPs. Will Canada be next?
    10 07 12 RF
    I think this will go Green, the Green leader and the party is currently and will be focusing significant time, energy and dollars to this riding in order to win, and there is certainly enough latent support here to get them over the top the question will be if they can get them out to vote!
    10 03 01 beenkissinwho
    After the hockey win last night, the only thing people are going to remember about the Olympics will not be the Georgian Luger dying, or the mishaps at the opening ceremonies, or the bad weather postponing events, it will be that amazing win over the Americans in Hockey. The Minister of State (Sport) will definitely benefit from this, and it will now be his race to lose.
    10 02 10 binriso
    The more I think about it, the more it looks like May could win here.
    I don?t see Lunn getting any higher than 35% this time around, the 44.4% that the CPC enjoyed last time in BC will be cut down to the mid-30s and this riding will be about the provincial average and probably a bit below it. The Copenhagen Summit and environmental issues can only work against the CPC here and the fact they have repeatedly downplayed (and lied about in the last election) the gigantic deficit cant sit well with fiscal conservatives, some of whom might sit out this time.
    I don?t see the Liberals nominating a strong candidate here, after all they will likely be focusing on other seats in BC (like protecting Keith Martin and Ujjal Dosanjh, while looking to take back North Vancouver or West-Van Sunshine Coast or Vancouver Kingsway) and more than that focusing on the 3/4 majority of Canada (Central and Eastern Canada) that will potentially deliver them a victory be it majority or minority. Last time would have been a bad result for them had the NDP candidate not dropped out.
    The NDP will likely gain votes here but the presence of May will likely make sure they are no threat, after all May was well ahead of the NDP in Central Nova, and the NDP had been consistently a strong 2nd there to Mackay for a few years.
    The Greens have a good base of support here and they actually might pull it off. If May gets above 35% id say the riding is won.
    GRN 35%
    CON 33%
    NDP 16%
    LIB 16%
    10 01 10 CGD
    I agree that this race is May's to lose, however, there are cracks appearing. It seems like the guy who ran against May for the Green nomination race has written Elections Canada complaining about unfair advantages given to May through the machinations of the riding association. This can't be a great start, and it will give fodder to opponents to say the Green Party is just as much politics as usual as they are.
    09 11 06 agent green
    All party resources will be going to the riding with the best demographics for Greens in the country. Now that Briony Penn is no longer waving the Liberal banner and may end up endorsing the Greens (she announced being a member of the BC Greens), this is May's to lose.
    London North Centre By-Election - Nov./06:
    2nd place finish for May - 25.82% - increasing Green support substantially from 5.49% - May grabs 50% of new votes from former NDP supporters - 25% from former Liberal voters and 25% from former Con voters.
    Central Nova - 2008:
    2nd place finish for May - increases support for Greens from 1.59% in 2006 to 32.24%.
    That's two relatively close 2nd place finishes in proverbial ‘non-green’ ridings. Not bad.
    Now let's look at SGI. Gary Lunn is a flake and a mighty lucky one at that. He's no Peter MacKay.
    Secondly, the Reform Party received their best ever result in BC in SGI during the 1988 federal election. The Greens also received their best ever result in Canada in SGI during the 2004 election with 17%. SGI has a history going against the trend.
    The Liberals and NDP will be running no-name candidates.
    As a high-profile Green Party leader, SGI will no doubt be a contest between Lunn and May.
    And Harris-Decima's survey confirms that around 50% of Liberal and NDP voters (as well as a minority of Con voters) want May in Parliament. http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2009/08/24/hd-2009-08-24-en276.pdf
    Big local issues:
    1) Oil tanker traffic in the Inside Passage
    2) Arts and culture
    3) Organic agriculture
    4) Open-pen aquaculture
    5) Small biz
    6) Climate Change
    Those all bode well for GPC's Green Book policies. Best of luck to Liz.
    09 09 29 binriso
    Well last election was a special case in this riding, but I think May needs at least one of the other candidates to drop out and narrow it down to a 2 or 3 way race. Basically need another Central Nova type deal.
    09 09 26 John
    I think this one will stay Conservative. Lunn is an incumbent cabinet minister. While May will get more profile as leader of a major, if seatless, political party, I think she will get a repeat of her performance in Central Nova last election. If she is going to win, she needs to pick a riding where (a) Green support is strong, (b) the riding doesn't have an incumbent running (or if there is one, a back bencher), (c) the riding has strong left of centre support, and (d) she can take the riding on a plurality. There are other ridings in BC, in my opinion, that better meet these four conditions.
    09 09 12 MJL
    I think May chose her target badly when she decided to run here. While she will come second, I don't think she can unseat Gary Lunn. She has a few things working against her.
    1. It is not clear to me that she will be invited to the debates this year, since the Greens no longer hold a seat. This will limit the party's visibility.
    2. In the largest poll I have seen - the leaked Marzolini poll that convinced Ignatieff to push for an election - the Greens were at 3%. While other polls have them higher, we all know how mushy Green support tends to be generally (they were at 5% in BC).
    3. An election so soon after the last one does not favour a party like the Greens. Fundraising takes time, and the Greens face seriously difficulties paying for a campaign.
    4. The Greens have never done better than 16% of the vote here, that with a fairly expensive campaign back in 2004. Guelph strikes me as much more promising target.
    5. It is not at all clear that May is the strategically best choice for anti-Conservative strategic voters. Not only did the Liberals come a strong second here, but they are more moderate than the Greens, and more likely to win over Tory voters.
    6. The return of the NDP to credible status here will also draw off potential green voters. Even if the NDP can't win here, they will be sure to mount a strong campaign. The election of a Green MP would seriously harm the NDP nationally (since the Greens are essentially NDP'ers, minus the whole caring about poor people thing).
    On the other hand, if May can galvanize the left dramatically, declining Tory fortunes in the province may give her the edge. Still I would bet against it. Incidentally, I think May is preventing a Liberal pickup by running here.
    09 09 09 MV
    May will not win this one for three reasons:
    1)Lack of support (and even open opposition) in the local riding association
    2)The fact that she is not a local
    3)The good base of the Conservatives in the riding
    So, Lunn will win there with about 38-45% of the vote.
    09 09 02 R.O.
    The though that this is Elizabeth Mays best route to Ottawa is laughable and i'm going to come out now with a prediction that she once again is going to be without a seat if she actually runs here . here are my reasons , # 1 she is not even from the province or the riding itself and even if she tries to move to the riding its not going to be seen as genuine this late in the game. # 2 she is once again considering running against a popular conservative mp in a riding they have held since 1997 and fought of numerous challenges before , Gary Lunn is also the minister of sport in the province that is just about ready to hold the winter olympics and i think that says a lot and greatly reduces the chances he'd lose his seat as i just don't see the minister of sport in the home of the olympics losing his seat as he's getting lots of positive press at the moment. # 3 there is still going to be NDP and liberal candidates here meaning the vote split on the left is going to be alive and well . last election there was basically no ndp candidate here and the liberals still were a few thousand votes short of victory. so that fact does not help the green party’s chances here. the way i look at it this is not the best bet for Elizabeth May if she really wants a seat she should run in a vacant riding and forget about the idea of facing off against high profile cabinet ministers who have unlimited resources.
    09 09 01 pollwerker
    The Greens are currently (Aug 09) surging in BC polls. Things may change. Elizabeth May does have a chance in this riding. Yes, a few local Greens might protest and a few dippers may debate the ideological differences, but at the end of the day May will bring a stronger campaign to SGI than any of Lunn's previous challengers. Lunn is no Peter Mackay.
    09 08 31 MF
    Right now I'm giving the edge to Gary Lunn again. Last time, the NDP candidate had to drop out and was reduced to 6% of the vote, the Greens lost ground and most of the anti-Tory solidified behind former Green and Liberal candidate Briony Penn and she came up short. With Elizabeth May running here (but not as likely to be in the national debates), Briony Penn not running and the NDP certainly likely to do better than last time, it is hard to say who the default anti-Tory candidate will be. This riding really makes a good case for electoral reform.
    09 08 29 Haligonian Political Junkie
    Obviously the dynamics of an election can change this prediction, though it would take a set of circumstances as extraordinary as those that occurred in 2008 to put the fate of this riding in doubt. And of course, Gary Lunn still won despite the set of circumstances that were aligned against him in 2008. The number of votes in the riding remained pretty much the same in 2008 as in 2006, implying that many New Democrats, who were denied a real candidate, did not stay home but instead opted for other candidates. About two-thirds of them backed the Liberals while one-third turned to the Tories. Few NDP votes, it would appear, went to the Greens. The NDP vote will obviously return to its natural level here. Saanich-Gulf Islands is bound to have some national media attention as all signs in the media and blogosphere point to Green Party leader Elizabeth May running here. However, she does not stand a chance of winning. First, at least some local Greens don't seem pleased with the idea of May parachuting into their riding, as evidenced by the nomination challenge she will face. This raises questions about how unified local Greens will be in any campaign effort. Second, Briony Penn, the strong Liberal (and former Green member) candidate from 2008, is not only backing the Liberals (nomination hopeful Renee Hetherington to be exact), but has publicly stated that May cannot win. As Penn has campaigned in the riding, her opinion on this matter cannot be regarded as ill-informed. The upshot is that the Liberals will have a strong local campaign with Penn's blessing, preventing the departure of many traditional Liberal voters to May. Thirdly, May can expect few votes to come from the NDP. NDP voters in places like mid-size urban southern Ontario or rural Nova Scotia may be more likely to shift to the Greens, but the same cannot be said of many NDP voters in B.C. This is because most NDP voters in B.C. fall into two camps. The first are the populists, or protest voters, who really switch between the NDP and Conservatives (or Reform in the 1990s) depending upon whoever seems like the best anti-elite/anti-Ottawa option. The Greens may get a few of these votes yet May's lack of local legitimacy would not be welcomed by many populists. The second group are the class warriors. These are the die-hard leftists, trade unionists, and radical academics who carry the torch of B.C.'s strong class politics history and who would never consider voting for an eco-capitalist party (as they would view the Greens) and would never vote for any party that lacked a socialist element within it. If they did not vote NDP, it would be for the candidate most likely to defeat the Tories, in an almost ‘Popular Front’ type of move, evidenced by the fact that two-thirds of NDP voters went Liberal once their candidate dropped out and Penn looked like the default anti-Tory option. The Green vote will go up, but May will not win and may likely come in third or even fourth. The Liberals will probably come in second but expect Gary Lunn to win, the only question being by how much.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Though his margin of victory went down, Lunn's total votes increased. This despite an overall drop in voter turnout. He still won with a 2,600 vote lead, and while his percentage will probably be between 40 and 45 again, he'll hold the seat.
    09 08 24 a.L.
    Lunn wins. He has a profile and the riding as a strong Tory base that isn't going anywhere. A strong green campaign only splits the vote. If Penn didn't win in 08, no one will beat lunn in 09/10
    09 08 24 MJA
    Don't forget, the NDP blew this riding last time by nominating the guy who would get naked and ask underage women to body-paint his private parts. Their vote total should rebound somewhat, but Elizabeth May showing up will throw a wrench in the works. This being said, look at where that support went last time: the NDP dropped 20% (it was too late to pull his name from the ballot), but the Green vote increased by slightly more than *half* a percent. Most of it (13%) went to the Liberals.
    Gary Lunn used to be Minister of Natural Resources, but he was moved to Sport, which seems to suggest the Conservatives know he's vulnerable. If Conservatives fortunes decline in BC, this could easily turn into a four-way race, and it's anyone's guess who'd pull it out. If the Liberals or NDP stand their candidate down for Elizabeth May, all bets are off.
    09 08 18 Nick J Boragina
    Various media sources have confirmed that Elizabeth May, leader of the Green Party, will be running here in the 2009/2010 election.

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