Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Saanich-Gulf Islands
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:57 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:46 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Jennifer Burgis
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Andrew Lewis
Gary Lunn
Mary Moreau
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
David Mulroney

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Saanich-Gulf Islands (100.0%)
Gary Lunn

2000 Result/Résultats:
24,800 42.92%
18,731 32.41%
5,994 10.37%
4,644 8.04%
3,616 6.26%

Saanich-Gulf Islands
(226/227 polls, 83187/83187 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
The Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce yesterday released a poll of this constituency, comprising about 400 respondents, with a margin of error of 5%.
The results were -
Conservative - 39%
Liberal - 22%
New Democrat - 20%
Green - 19%
21/06/04 Chuck
Email: [hidden]
Well, after spending five days in Victoria and environs, I have a pretty good feel about what is going to happen. Speaking privately with some members of the Liberal and NDP campaign teams, I think the CPC has this riding won (unfortunately, as I don't care for them). The Green Party momentum seems to be stalling and Gary as a sitting MP will return to Ottawa. Driving through the riding, the CPC signs are most numerous and are larger which speaks well to Gary's campaign finances. The former Tory/Reform higher income areas like Broadmead are strongly voting CPC if the signs are any indication (unlike what is happening in the Victoria riding - see my post there). The anti CPC vote is too evenly divided between strong campaigns. The Greens are running a strong campaign but that is drawing votes from the NDP and Libs. The left is too divided to stop the Tories from winning this suburban/rural riding.
20/06/04 David C.
Email: [hidden]
I didn't want to make a prediction but based on how the campaign has gone I'm going to make one now. John Koury is coming apart at the seams -- the CPC (that's Conservative Party of Canada not Communist Party of Canada) has had to call high profile people to calm him down. This can only help his opponents Keith Martin from the Liberals, and Randall Garisson of the NDP. That being said the NDP has a much more formidable ground organization than the Liberals. Also the NDP candidate has been on the popular political show 'vi land voices' multiple times over the campaign -- and he has done a good job representing himself. This publicity can only help him whereas we all know the Liberals are in trouble all over the country and this is the same on Vancouver Island.
20/06/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
This will be the only riding in the nation to vote green, Lunn has been an insignifigant MP and the greens finally seem to be unified as a party. They are throwing all their volunteers and money at this riding and should win it in a nail biting finish
20/06/04 Alex
Email: [hidden]
Greens have it in Saanich-Gulf Islands. The change in funding which restricts corporate and union contributions and gives a party money for each vote they receive makes the funding proportional as never before. This means that people needn't strategically vote NDP to avoid the Conservatives and Liberals - they can instead vote Green and bolster the party's chances for the next election in 2008. Union/government workers are seeing that the unions and NDP aren't doing a good job of protecting their jobs, organic farmers win by voting Green, as do the Gulf Islanders who have been well represented by Andrew Lewis. He has proven his stance on proportional representation with his success in the 2002 pro-rep campaign.
The dead zone has traditionally been Saanich South with high apathy. The people who have actually read the Green platform realize that there as much right wing in there as left - something that might make the apathetic white-picket fencers get off their behinds and vote Green for the conservative bent on the platform. I'm seeing some strong Green support from both young voters (environment) and seniors (health care) there also.
20/06/04 Mark R.
Email: [hidden]
This will undoubtedly be a four-way race with interesting vote splits. This favours the NDP. With the NDP polling well on Vancouver Island, coupled with repetitive visits by Jack Layton and displeasure with Mssr's Campbell in Martin; this riding may be NDP by the end of election night.
20/06/04 Tom
Email: [hidden]
If the Greens will win any seat, this will be it. Did anyone see the recent article in the Globe and Mail about this riding? I think the race now is between the Greens and the Conservatives. Gary is a nice guy but I now think the Greens have a shot here. In Gary's favour: he is not a "hard core" Alliance type. His party has organization and does have appeal among the conservative rural types in the country in this riding. The good news for the Greens is that a lot of people who I thought never would have voted Green in the past are seriously looking at this party. In my suburban professional office (which is filled with middle aged, white, male, Chamber of Commerce types who love the Alliance/Conservatives) one of the professionals (I am in business services) in our office who is helping out on the CPC campaign tried to solicit support from a local bank manager (a white, middle aged, greying, dark suited, distinguished looking gentleman) of one of the larger branches here of one of the "Big Banks" who was visiting our office. The conversation started to the effect "you probably support the Conservatives, don't you, so have you thought about making a donation to help us out?". The answer to everyone's shock was "well, actually, I'm going to be going Green this time . . . they actually have an intelligent economic plan and it is time we looked after this planet . . . so. . . . sorry!". There were a lot of surprised faces let me tell you!

I don't think that banker chap is alone in this riding and if he can vote Green, other such older small "c" conservative voters might also.
20/06/04 V.D.
Email: [hidden]
If the Greens could not win any seat in the 2001 provincial election, they won't win in this one. No doubt this will be one of the highest green votes in the country, and technically, in a four way race, a party CAN win a seat with a small percentage of the vote, the greens though, will not be high enough to win it, just can't see it. Hey, maybe I'll be surprised, but i doubt it.
15/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
I'm less certain after examining the Ipsos-Reid results in detail - it is indeed true it was not based on a riding-by-riding analysis as I thought.
The National (CBC TV) also seems to think Lewis has a chance here, in fact, they ran a ten minute piece on him. However they made the usual mistake of assuming that the provincial riding was like the federal, whereas the federal is much larger.
Also after the TV debate, from which the Greens were (unfairly) excluded, and in which Harper and Layton both performed very well, and which Martin survived, it's hard to imagine that Conservative and NDP vote would not go up, or that Liberals would abandon ship just yet.
In my opinion, being excluded from the TV debate has cost the Greens their first MP.
14/06/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
Why on earth would this area dump its CPC MP and vote Green?
This part of the Island and coast is not particularly left-leaning, and does not have a Liberal MP that is looking to get knocked off.
Lunn is a fairly popular guy, who represents a party that it attempting to win the government..the Greens won't see the inside of the HOC for a long time to come.
If anything, the Greens could place well above the traditional 2% that they would normally get, and get a fairly massive result here....by Green standards at least.
It doesn't make any sense that the Greens would have a chance to knock off a fairly popular opposition MP, in an area that by its very nature is very conservative.
12/06/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Andrew Lewis will be the first Green MP in Canadian History. The party is around 7% in the polls. While it's possible for them to not win a single riding, the Greens are in serious contention here. If the greens lose, it will be a close second to the Conservative candidate. I am thinking recount. Expect this seat to be flipping and flopping around on election night.
12/06/04 Cory Willis
Email: cory.willis@shaw.ca
Folks, please don't read too much into the Ipsos-Reid "the Greens will win two seats" statistic. They're simply extrapolating, converting vote percentages into seat numbers, and that's an imperfect process at best.
The same poll says that Alberta, where I live, will double its Liberal seats to 4. Not gonna happen.
I have no idea what'll happen in Saanich-Gulf Islands, but the winner won't be crowned because Ipsos-Reid said so.
11/06/04 Ottawa guy
Email: [hidden]
Actually, the Ispos-Reid poll predicted ZERO TO TWO Green seats, not two Green seats. There is no question that Andrew Lewis is competitive here, but I'm told that their voter contact and "get out the vote" machinery is rudimentary at best. The best bet in a close race is always the candidate with the best machine on the ground and that is not the Greens. I'm going with Gary Lunn since the Conservatives are on the upswing in BC and the Greens will cost the NDP more votes than the Conservatives.
08/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
"The latest Ipsos-Reid poll is predicting the Green Party will win two seats in BC." This being one of them (West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast is the other). Andrew Lewis is working hard and his team smells blood, and they have a base in the Gulf Islands they don't have to defend so much, so, it's entirely possible. I'm going out on a limb to predict he'll win.
07/06/04 R.J.
Email: rjk@ca.inter.net
My great-uncle lives on Salt Spring Island. He's a former SOCRED / REFORMER, a self-employed arbitrator with a reasonable high income who has told me everyone - his neighbours and my great-aunt and him included are voting GREEN.
In his words it is the ultimate protest vote against the mainstream. People here want to make history and are willing to send a new party into the fold. Here people are willing to try something different and in BC the greens whom are neither from the right or the left resonate positively.
Regardless of the battle elsewhere, everyone in Saanich-Guld Islands is ready to send an alternative message. Believe me I'm a pretty left-centrist kind of voter. If my great-uncle says the Green party is the non-ideological alternative to central-Canadian interest and merits support.... the riding will go green.
07/06/04 Canadian red-head
Email: [hidden]
The press over the last week, the momentum of the party, the popularity of the candidate, fed-up voter backlash, the international clout of the party and BC voter propensity all culminate with a Green Party win here.
While covering the decision not to include the Greens in the leaders' debate, the CBC profiled Andrew Lewis as a contender, giving him (more) media exposure. As well, the most recent Ipos-Reid poll predicted 2 Greens elected. Saanich-Gulf' has to be one of them.
That having been said, the race will be incredibly close. Lewis will win with only a high 20-odd percent of the vote.
06/06/04 Initials (TAN)
Email: [hidden]
Ipsos' latest seat projections pointed to two Green seats in BC, and the smart money is that this is one of the two. (What they figure the other one is is another matter entirely... I wouldn't know where to begin looking.)
That said, I'm not quite sold on a Lewis victory. He's got a lot going for him as the GPC's Deputy Leader, with experience and relatively favourable electoral geography under his belt, not to mention some pretty high-profile endorsements (artist/former Orchardista Robert Bateman and the Guess Who's Randy Bachman, who both who live on Saltspring, are publically campaigning for him). But there're a few variables that nobody below has yet called to mind that I thought I'd stick out there.
Now, if some court could be convinced that Gulf Islands have "unique representational needs" and deserve their own population-be-damned district a la Labrador, this would be over. In the last provincial election (http://www.elections.bc.ca/elections/sov01/san.pdf) Lewis basically tied the winning Campbellite on the Gulf Islands polls; divide those Campbellite numbers between the Libs and Cons and you have the first Green seat in the House. But the Gulf Islands share this riding with some pretty ersatz electoral blocs: nearly-deads in Sidney, farmers in Saanichton, millionaires at Deep Cove, and standard-issue white picket fence Canada with an Island twist in Saanich proper.
So the first question is how well his 25% provincially in Saanich North and the Islands will translate into Saanich--Gulf Islands federally. I believe the provincial riding stretches as far south as the northern border of the City of Saanich and contains somewhere in the ballpark of 50,000 voters, while the federal riding includes portions of the City of Saanich east of the Pat Bay Highway, thus adding another 60,000 suburbanites. Now, Lewis gains part of the UVic Creative-Class-shadow spilling over into the riding's extreme southeast, and all-in-all, the electorate from the southern end of the Saanich peninsula is probably less right-leaning the northern portions that he's already dealt with. But at the end of the day, the Gulf Islands' total proportion of the electorate has been swamped out substantially by a hefty chunk of suburbia, and so assuming he's working with a 25% baseline might be a bit premature.
The second issue is how solid that 25% baseline really is. Recent polls have shown Green Party of BC support to be at new lows as the anti-Campbell vote coalesces behind Carole James. That seems to lend creedence to the theory that much of Lewis' support last time around was a centre-left protest vote that mightn't reappear on June 28. Lewis siphoned supporters of the Glen Clark NDP last time; I wouldn't assume siphoning support from the Jack Layton NDP will be as easy.
The real key to defeating the CPC on the island for any of the contenders will be getting the former PC vote. Victoria was Orchard country and opposed the merger; if Lewis or anyone else can corner the PC organization then that might take them over the top.
So no prediction from me yet. One of five or six interesting four-ways across the country that I don't think we'll be able to reach a conclusion on until late this month. A Harper wave taking hold in BC might make things relatively easy for Lunn, otherwise it'll be a real mess coming up the middle.
06/06/04 Steven Hurdle
Email: [hidden]
This riding is just the right urban/rural mix for a Green victory: leftist urban sensibilities with organic farming making up much of the rural areas. Yesterday's Ipsos-Reid poll indicated that the Greens were leading in two ridings in BC, and though the ridings aren't named you have to believe that Saanich-Gulf Islands is one of them. The Conservative incumbent is weak (he gets very passionate about leadership races and internicine warfare amongst Conservatives, he was amongst the 12 Alliance MPs that split off to form the short-lived D.R.C., but he never gets very passionate about non-partisan issues or issues that matter much to his constituents). The Liberals and NDP failed to knock Lunn off in 2000 despite his poor performance. This riding is truly a four-way race but the Greens have the edge given the anti-incumbent fervour that seems to be gripping much of the nation. How better to register disenchantment than a Green vote? Expect the Greens to smell blood and put a lot of effort here to make sure their deputy leader is put over the top. They know they need a riding to get into future debates, they know that this is their best shot, Ipsos-Reid's polling confirms it *is* possible so expect them to make sure it happens here.
05/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I'll be bold and pick the CPC because while I think Greens won't win a seat they will put a dent in the NDP vote in BC. Also, the Liberals aren't gaining in the polls west of the Maritimes. The result will be Gary Lunn winning as a result of a three-way vote split on the left.
05/06/04 Jim
Email: [hidden]
Ipsos-Reid just came out with a seat-projection model, based on recent polling, that projected the Green Party could possibly win 2 seats. It doesn't say where but I would have to assume that Saanich-Gulf Islands could be one of them.
05/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
Just an update on my submission bellow: A new Ipsos poll was released yesterday that said the Greens were up two points in BC from their last poll (13% from 11%), and their seat projection suggested the Green Party might win two seats. My guess is that if Ipsos says they can win here, it's probably safe for us...
03/06/04 Brass Eye
Email: [hidden]
There is a new energy surging through the ether in this riding in favour of the Greens that it's palpable. The winds of change are blowing so strongly that it is almost the equivilent of a Perfect Storm in political terms. There is a dissatisfaction with all established parties, a respected local Green candidate in Andrew Lewis, and a strong desire throughout the riding to try something "new". Rather than waste their ballot or simply not vote, many previously disaffected voters may choose the Greens. This may be just enough to push the Greens over the top. Everyone likes an underdog, especially one that has a chance.
02/06/04 Matthew Hammond
Email: elektro_matty@yahoo.ca
The Green Party will make history here. They have received massive publicity over the past 48 hours regarding their exclusion from the debate including a segment on Andrew Lewis on National television. No one party will get more than 33% of the vote; Lewis will be able to mobilize people that have previously given up on politics to eek this one out.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
With things as they are now, this riding is way, way up in the air. The Greens are going to make it a four way race. Conservative incumbant, previously strong Liberal showing, NDP riding high on Vancouver Island and a Green candidate who scored 25% in the provincial election. We've been humbled by this riding, and have to say that there just is no clear winner at all...yet.
02/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
I'd have to agree that with an election as tight as this one, a strong Green candidate could likely win here. The Greens have risen to hold a respectable level of support in BC, and with their poll numbers nationally, have been receiving much more media attention than in the past. Their numbers in this riding are not likely to go down any, and they seem to be gathering speed. That, and there's a strong possibility of a strong protest vote. I'll be watching this riding closely on election night, since it's likely going to be extremely close, but if the Greens win it, I wouldn't be suprised.
01/06/04 Marvin the Martian
Email: [hidden]
Greens in a squeaker. Factors: BC voter volitility, BC voter independence, strong Green candidate, a riding with no single dominant demographic (but a strong progressive streak), lots of concern about drought and other environment-related issues, anti-Campbell anti-Martin backlash and, finally, a sense of "momentum" on the part of Lewis. Something historic is happening here ... and people like making history. Yeah, it's largely a "gut thing," but i'm going with my gut on this one.
Email: [hidden]
"Cedar Hill going Liberal with the N.D.P. second."
Interestingly I still haven't seen one Liberal sign in the Cedar Hill area around where I live, or in the areas I have been to in recent days. In the "sign race" it seems to be a 2-way race between the Conservatives and the NDP, with the Greens in 3rd place in this small section of the riding.
28/05/04 Darcy
Email: dphiggin@fes.uwaterloo.ca
I will also predict an Andrew Lewis Green win here.
This should be a close four-way race with the NDP picking up a little bit, and the Liberals perhaps dropping.
It will depend much on how the Conservatives do. Will old PC members turn out for the Greens?
The Green Party just started to grow when Lewis got 25% in this riding. If everyone who voted for him last time plus a few more vote for him in this election, he will be the first Green MP in Canada.
The party here will especially pick up non-voters and tradtional Liberals.
25/05/04 Chris Hanlon
Email: [hidden]
Saanich looks like a tight race. I predict Andrew Lewis of the Green Party will build on his strong 2001 provincial showing and be one of the first greens elected in Canada.
25/05/04 Recent Guest
Email: [hidden]
I agree with the recent post that says N.D.P strength is exaggerated. I don't think they are going to win this riding. Their candidate is a little known assistant to a politican (or so I am told). The grey haired set from the northern, more rural part of the riding will be out en masse and they won't be voting for the N.D.P. especially with their new plans for an inheritence tax. They will likely vote Conservative. I see Gordon Head, Cedar Hill going Liberal with the N.D.P. second. Broadmead/Cordova Bay will go Conservative with the Liberals in second. I think this race will be a toss up between the Liberals and Conservatives but I think that incumbant Gary Lunn of the CPC will hang on narrowly.
25/05/04 Tom
Email: [hidden]
This riding is too close to call, and will probably stay that way until the election. The problem is predicting a likely outcome in a legitimate four-way race is next to impossible. This is probably the only riding in Canada where the fourth place finisher will be separated from the winner by less than 15%. My guess is that the debates - both national and local - will probably be pivotal here. Although this would not ordinarily be the case, the Green Party probably has as good a chance as anyone of winning the seat. First, their candidate, Andrew Lewis, is the deputy leader of the Party, which will help, if only a little. Second, for the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP, this is one close riding of many, but for the Green Party, this is the only riding where they have a legitimate shot of winning. Expect the GPC to poor everything they have into Saanich, subject to campaign expense limitations, of course. Third, BC voters are notorious for not voting for the party that ends up in government, which will help both the NDP and the Greens. My prediction? Whoever wins, there will be at least one recount. It's going to be that close.
10/05/04 Ian King
Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com
The closer you get to Victoria, the more you see areas that potentially lean NDP, but the northern end of the Saanich Pensinsula is possibly the most right-leaning area of the Island. Populated with a fair number of farmers, retirees, and professionals that have moved in order to get a big lot with a view, it tends the right thanks to that population. Heck, in the '91 provincial election, the Saanich North riding was the *only* Island seat not to vote NDP; the NDP was stuck under 30%. Any wonder why the NDP has only won this federal seat once, the year it nearly maxed itself out in BC?
The Greens will be a factor -- if only as a spoiler. Pulling 15% of the vote isn't implausible; the local Greens are well-organized (by Green standards.) I suspect that the votes they draw will mostly come from those who otherwise would vote NDP or Liberal, and very few who would go Conservative. Without proportional representation, though, the effect of that local strongth is that it ensures that no candidate can get together enough votes to beat Lunn. Ugly though it is, it's the system we've got for now.
29/04/04 Mike A
Email: [hidden]
It would seem that the "super organized" NDP is bombarding this website with NDP predictions. The NDP came FOURTH in the 2000 election: behind the Alliance, the Liberals, and the PC. Thanks to Joe Clark's reluctant "endorsement," most of the PC vote will go to the Liberals. This riding is relatively conservative, but the Conservative candidate is unpopular. He left the Alliance and then went back in 2002; he was disloyal to the voters, and they won't be loyal to him.
The new NDP leader is popular with his party, but won't be with Canadians. Jack Layton is like the Stockwell Day of last election: he's extreme, he's an egomaniac (The man polled his party on whether or not he should SHAVE his MOUSTACHE!!!), and he has implausible platform ideas that will scare away rational voters. The only difference is he's a LEFT-wing nutcase and he won’t win his seat thanks to vote splitting from a strong Liberal candidate and the leader of the Green party.
I might ask the NDP where their base of support is in the riding. Gordon Head? Liberal. Cedar Hill Quadra? Liberal-Conservative. Cordova Bay-Broadmead? High-income (NDP enemies). North or Central Saanich? Wealthy-er farmers. Sidney? Seniors. The Gulf Islands? All polls went either Alliance or Green last election.
Get your facts straight "In the no." Mulroney was not parachuted by Paul Martin; you are thinking of Dulcie McCallum who was RUMORED to have been parachuted, and who dropped out of the race. Mulroney does in fact live IN the riding on Christmas Hill which is RIGHT ACROSS QUADRA STREET FROM THE NDP CAMPAIGN OFFICE (Way to go there people!). You commented that David’s last name was unfortunate, but I have faith that everyone will figure out that David Mulroney is not Brian Mulroney, thanks to the different first name and different political affiliation. The name Mulroney is an advantage because it is easily remembered and grabs attention and interest. You misspelled "sleek," and your comment about Mulroney being a "sleak private attorney" shows your party's contempt for people who worked hard through school and who have financially rewarding careers. That's pretty scary.
"Initial" had somewhat more valid arguments, but may not realize that people rarely say "no" to the candidate on the doorstep: far less than to other canvassers. All candidates are "clear favorites" at the door. What "Initial" may also not realize is that canvassers generally start in the neighborhoods where they have the most support to keep the candidate and volunteers optimistic, which helps build campaign momentum early on. What's funny is that the NDP did so poorly last election that "traditionally conservative areas" may still be their strongest neighborhoods.
Not NDP. Not this riding, not this time. Probably not Gary Lunn again. Probable victory for Liberal Candidate David Mulroney.
29/04/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
Two factual notes: First, while "Greens did not come close to winning any seats in 2001 in BC," the numbers say they are a serious factor in BC, as half a dozen Greens got 20% or more.
Since then, the BC Liberals have lost lustre, the federal Liberals have lost credibility, the Alliance lost its populism, the NDP lost Svend and Ussanjh, while the Greens lost only a boat anchor (the former federal leader Joan Russow) and gained a Red Tory leader. Also, since then, there've been forest fires and fishery errors and even unions lining up with the Haida against old growth logging on Vancouver Island. Every natural disaster tends to shove a few more votes permanently into the Green camp.
Second factual point: parties "punished" by the voters tend not to come back quickly. The federal PCs in 1993 were cut back to two seats and were never a major electoral force again. Believing that the provincial NDP is forgiven is naive; It might be true, but it's unpredictable at this point.
27/04/04 Ivan Frank
Email: [hidden]
This is a very tough one to call. Historically, the riding was Conservative, but the PC lost its way here some time ago. The NDP slipped in with a very good candidate in Lynn Hunter, and then Lunn rode the Reform wave, and was re-elected although he's a very weak MP. This time no-one in B.C. is going to vote Liberal (the Maritimes may vote out of self interest, but B.C. doesn't), and Martin's parachute brigade tactics will kill his party here. Lunn's bizarre performance leaving his party and then pleading to be allowed back will hurt him. If the Greens don't take too many NDP votes, the NDP has a chance in this riding.
28/04/04 sd
Email: [hidden]
This riding is a three way split and the NDP is perfectly poised to win. The only real green vote is for the NDP candidate Jennifer Burgis who has quite a good understanding of environmental issues from her work as Andrew Petter's assistant. In addition she has actually built 3 Habitiat for Humanity homes as president of that organisation and so we can count on her help with affordable housing issues. The Greens here keep suggesting that they could win the riding but they are fooling themselves with votes from 2 elections where the voters were trying to punish the NDP and all that has changed now. In the 2000 federal election the voters were warning the NDP of their provincial demise and in the provincial election they carried out the kill. The Greens can only be spoilers in this riding and everyone understands that now.
26/04/04 initial
Email: [hidden]
Based on early door-to-door canvassing Jennifer Burgis is a clear favorite -- and in areas that were traditionally conservative. A number of Green supporters last time have returned to the NDP. Jennifer was a ministerial assistant to ministers in the last (and now lamented) provincial government; she has never been involved in with federal MPs except as a party and/or candidate supporter. Jennifer has a fair command of French. What about the other candidates for federal office?
26/04/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
Bernard is very compelling. The Greens may actually win a seat this election. If so, it will be here. It's a pity they didn't figure on running their leader in a riding he might possible win in. He's an ex-Tory and would probably wash even better here.
22/04/04 In the no
Email: [hidden]
I wouldn't have expected it, but it seems the NDP is really on the move in this riding. From an inside source I heard that the NDP is so well organised in this riding that they have separate and fully-volunteer election planning committees in virtually every minor neighbourhood. I also think they are hiding their strength, because as a Burgis volunteer admitted when I asked her, they are currently positioned as the best funded campaign for the NDP locally. The Liberal nominee doesn't even live in the riding, and was parachuted in at the last minute by Paul Martin in a sour grapes affair with the riding association. He also has the unfortunate name of "Mulroney," and is a sleak private attorney.
08/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
This riding will remain in the hands of an opposition party, and almost certainly Lunn will be re-elected. It's very unusual for a government candidate to defeat an incumbent opposition MP, no matter how well-respected the one is, and no matter how tarnished the other is.
Whatever chances the Liberals once had to win this riding, they've squandered them in their enthusiasm to choose the "right" candidate. Bob Russell was the first declared candidate for the Liberal nomination. Liberal organizers for some reason were desperate to prevent him from winning, so there was a series of several would-be opponents to Russell, who all bowed out for one reason or another, until the last one miraculously won the nomination three days after entering the race. The party, as is their general policy, won't say what the margin of victory was. Gee, can you tell that David Basi lives in this riding?
Most people won't be familiar with this saga in this level of detail. But Lunn's opponents in his own party, who are probably further right wing than he is if they opposed his membership in the DRC caucus, have nowhere to go except to stay home. If they were appalled by Lunn's behaviour, what will they make of the Liberal nomination battle, even if they weren't paying that much attention?
The NDP won this riding once, in 1988, and former MP Lynn Hunter's constituency assistant Jennifer Burgis is running for the party. Perhaps enough disaffected Liberal supporters will go to the NDP to push the NDP into first place. But I doubt it, especially because Green candidate Andrew Lewis is likely to take some votes that might otherwise go NDP. Saanich and the Gulf Islands are home to a lot of environmental activists, and the Greens were close behind the NDP in the last federal election. Prediction: Tory 35%, NDP 25, Liberal 25, Green 10.
07/04/04 Saanich Resident
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals managed to earn quite a few votes in this riding in the 2000 election, but most voters who voted Alliance were voting out of protest. Canadians are not particualrily ideologically consistent; many who voted reform/alliance in the past voted NDP in pre-1993 elections. A handful of former Alliance voters will refuse to vote Conservative. Many former Progressive Conservative voters will vote Liberal or NDP. The NDP should be expected to pick up a fair amount of the vote from the PC and CA, but not enough to overcome the Solid liberal support, as the NDP had very weak support here last election. The Liberals will hold their ground to win in a close race.
07/04/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
OK time to go out on a limb here.
Part of this area got 25% green vote in the provincial election. Andrew Lewis is the deupty national leader and endorsed by Robert Bateman. He ran as a Green here in 2001 provincial election.
With four candidates splitting the vote, someone could win with just over 30% of the vote. This is not an impossible task for a Green. In a three way race you need to be reasonanbly certain of at at least35%, basically impossible for a Green - this is why Greens did not come close to winning any seats in 2001 in BC. But with a volatile electorate and strong Green with a strong endorsement from some names and victory is possible here.
The difference will be that no one realistically thinks the conservatives will be government, the NDP are not going to win here and the Liberals screwed up with Pia. There is no obvisous party people need to see elected here (such as the BC Liberals in 2001 and 1996)
Expect a strong Green result and win in a four way race.
05/04/04 Ryan
Email: [hidden]
This is my home riding, and I think it will be won by the Conservatives. Here's why: North Saanich, Central Saanich, and the northern part of the municipality of Saanich are largely rural conservatives, consisting of hobby farms, plant growers, farmers, and a few upper-income subdivisions whose residents like fiscal conservatism. Gary Lunn has been a low-profile MP, but the united conservative party and his stint with the DRC should actually help rather than hinder his re-election chances by getting some of the old PC vote. Some of the Reform/CA element have forgiven Lunn for the DRC episode, and will go out to vote for him (though not as enthusiastically). In any case, I predict that Gary Lunn will win this riding when all the dust settles.
02/04/04 Erik
Email: [hidden]
Voters have largely forgotten about Gary switching to the DRC. Gary also didn’t run a very good campaign last time, I expect he will learn form his mistakes and do better this time. The PC candidate from 2000 ran against Gary for this nomination and lost but was extremely supportive and will help bring the old PC vote home to Gary for an easy win.
Plus, the Liberal candidate enters the nomination race days before the nomination, they allow him to break all the rules to do so and he then easily wins it. Smells like the other nomination troubles that the Liberal’s seem to have in BC that BC voters detest.
01/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding is "attached" to the mainland by ferry service. Many people from Victoria therefore travel through here. Liberals feel quite at home here. That, added with the Liberal's historic strength here, and on Vancouver Island in General, will give them the slight edge they need to win.
29/03/04 Arthur M.
Email: [hidden]
In 2000, 6400 votes separated the Alliance (and now conservative) candidate Gary Lunn from Liberal candidate Karen Knott. The PC Candidate gathered 6000 votes. Add the PC vote to the Alliance vote and it would seem that Gary Lunn will have no trouble winning. However, a few important factors need to be considered. Paul Martin, focused on eliminating western alienation, is much more popular than Chretien was in this riding. The "red tories" or small 'c' conservatives, those who supported David Orchard or Joe Clark and those who oppose the merger or Harper will probably vote Liberal, NDP or abstain altogether. The Liberals have a strong Candidate this year, where many Conservative voters and even members are dissatisfied with Lunn since he left the Alliance Caucus in 2002. Expect a narrow Liberal win.
29/03/04 Tim Louman-Gardiner
This is classic CPC territory. It's a riding that's relatively upper-class, mixed in with a little political awareness that tends to manifest itself (in Western Canada) as anti-Liberal protest votes. Which is why Lunn, a particularly weak MP, gets elected repeatedly with no problem. While Victoria has often been NDP-friendly, even provincially this area was (provincial) Liberal friendly. No question this goes Conservative again.
26/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Another BC riding with Liberal nomination problems - Pia Shandel was asked to run by the Liberals and now they do not want her because, shock of shocks, she had opinions as a talkshow host!
She is rather pissed off because she had to give up her job to make the run for the nomination
25/03/04 Robert B
Email: robertboyd@shaw.ca
This riding has not gone Liberal since Trudeaumania swept the nation. It's been PC except for the one time that Reform split the vote and let the NDP squeek through in 1988. With one united conservative party and the countless scandals tainting the Liberal brand name, this riding will be an easy win for Gary Lunn and the Conservative Party.
24/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
I think Gary Lunn is reasonably safe here, but if he is defeated, it will by the NDP.
The area has basically been on the right side of the spectrum.
So, this was an Orchard hot bed - where these people going? A strong Green finish of 15% is not unlikely (hey, this is another place in BC where the Liberals may come 4th)
23/03/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
Saanich doesn't vote NDP so this is the one island seat the NDP isn't in the running for and the Liberals will be too busy trying to save Anderson in Victoria to seriously challange this one.
23/03/04 mini phreek
Email: [hidden]
if the greens ever had a chance of winning it will be here, although it's not lickly, they stand a better chance here then anware else, however it's probably a 4 way toss up here.
17/03/04 TCR
Email: [hidden]
The Island is indeed in play, but not for the Liberals, who will be lucky to re-elect David Anderson. Provincially, polls are indicating that the Island is a NDP stronghold. Keith Martin will pay for crossing the floor, whether he loses to a conservative or an NDPer is the only question. As for Saanich-Gulf Islands, this seat is very likely to end up in the NDP column along with the two Nanaimo seats and the Vancover Island North riding.
As with all but the hardcore bible-belt seats of the interior, the 2000 vote totals are meaningless as indicators for 2004. The historic volatility of B.C. is yet again on display.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We have to disagree with L.D. on this call. If you look back to this site's 2000 election postings, you'll see simmilar predictions of Lunn's fall to the Liberals. With the Liberals having fared better in 2000 than they seem to be now and long term popular Liberals like David Anderson actually worried about losing their seats, how can someone expect any Liberal pick ups? At this time, we can't see ridings falling to the Liberals.
17/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
The area has traditionally voted PC through the 1970's and 1980's with the exception of 1988 when the NDP squeaked in with a 1,200 vote majority while the fledgling Reform candidate obtained 8,165 votes. That election was also a year when the NDP obtained an historic high of 37% of the provincial vote. Since 1993, Reform/CA have obtained comfortable majorities. Additionally, the PC candidate obtained 10.37% of the vote in the 2000 election. CPC marginal win over the Liberals.
15/03/04 L.D.
Email: [hidden]
This will likely go Liberal. Lunn is weak, and the island will be in play.

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