08 04 04	Bernard 24.68.43.100
I see a lot of wishful thinking out there, but no evidence that anything other than a Gary Lunn re-election is on the cards for the riding. What evidence is there that Gary is going to lose votes? At 37-40% of the vote, he is in no danger of losing. The Liberals at their best have not been able to break the 1/3 of the vote mark - this includes 2000 when the NDP cratered to almost nothing.
	08 03 03	A.S. 99.233.96.153
The Nukegate minister in the riding where Greens got their best general-election percentage ever (so far): what a toxic combo. The scary thing is, Gary Lunn could still win, albeit in an extraordinary ‘Saskatoon-Humboldt’ quarter-of-the-vote situation--or maybe just win as he's won before, if his party's earned majority-worthy voter forgiveness...
	08 01 16	Daver 69.158.190.47
Mr. Lunn certainly has received a lot of press exposure with the firing of the President of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission. Most people I have spoken to see this as a crazy and vindictive action that undermines nuclear safety and makes Canada look like a third world dictatorship. I doubt he will survive the next election. Looks like this riding will go either NDP or Liberal.
	08 01 12	209.202.78.177
Lunn's getting press now, but it isn't good press at all. People on Vancouver Island aren't going to be impressed by having their MP (mis)managing the nuclear and oil industries. The Liberal candidate is strong and has good environmental credentials, which should cut into the Green vote enough to give her the win. In the last two elections, the Greens actually had a hope of winning. Now that they know it isn't in the cards, they'll focus on defeating the Tory Minister of Nukes.
	08 01 08	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 76.64.120.254
We can't help but wonder what, if any, effect the threatening of firing the head of the Nuclear Safety Commission. If this blows into something big (and the opposition will try their best to make it blossom into a scandal), and you couple it with the relative strength of both the Liberals, Greens and NDP in this riding as well as the general weakness the CPC has on Vancouver Island, this could spell Lunn's downfall. Or it could all fizzle out and Lunn comes out unscathed. Just something to watch for now.
	07 10 08	John 66.48.175.133
I have to agree with Ancastarian here. As a cabinet minister, Lunn gets a lot of free press. On top of that, he is the incumbent and he has kept his nose pretty clean. While last election wasn't a landslide, he did have a comfortable margin. This seat will stay Conservative.
	07 09 23	Ancastarian 72.38.152.187
The NDP posters here are seriously misguided if they think the NDP will take this riding. Gary Lunn is a high-profile Cabinet Minister. Why would the voters of Saanich-Gulf Islands remove him in return for a no-name back-bencher? Lets not forget that the Liberals also polled very well here. While I predict that without the Greens, Lunn?s plurality might be severely reduced, he will hold this seat.
	07 07 12	Porter 198.103.172.9
We might be about to see the seismic shift in support that would indeed knock Mr. Lunn on his ear. In addition to existing local poll numbers indicating a push for change in a riding that very left wing, the Greens may not run a candidate for this riding to reduce vote splitting on the left. ‘Prominent Green Party activists in the area are taking Elizabeth May's lead and asking members not to run a candidate. Their reasoning? Because Gary Lunn...they really want to defeat him, and they fully admit that a Green Party candidate is not the one to do it.’ ‘The reason that this is especially good for NDP candidate Julian West is that the NDP seems to pick up stray Green votes in the riding, as evidenced by past election results. Between 2004 and 2006 the Green vote dropped more than 6% and the NDP vote went up nearly 6%, while the Liberal vote was nearly unchanged (only 60 new votes).’ The open letter in question can be found at the citation below on date Thursday July 12, 2007: Quotes cited from http://dipperchick.blogspot.com/
	07 07 11	interested 24.69.173.226
Today's letter to members by influential Green Party folks, Guy Dauncey, Marlyn Horsdal, Casey Brennan, Harold Wolf, Will Horter and Dorothy Cutting calling for the Green Party to not run a candidate makes the chances of defeating Gary Lunn much higher. The letter calls on members of the Green Party to work to defeat 'Dirty’ Gary by ensuring that the Green vote is not split 3-ways in a riding where Lunn won with the lowest percentage of support of any federal cabinet minister. The letter goes further to say great things about Lunn's nominated Liberal & NDP opponents. The NDP having come second in the last election and with the most momentum last time as the Green vote started to implode is the obvious choice, however, the Liberals are also running a candidate that will compete for voters. If this proposal to not run a Green candidate goes through or not, the damage is done. Green voters now know that voting Green in this election, when the Green Party has never come anything but fourth in this riding federally is as useless in this first past the post system as voting Conservative in this riding. A drop of only 5% in Lunn's vote could see both the NDP and the Liberal candidates competing for the No. 1 and No. 2 spots. This seems very likely given the vitriol Saanich-Gulf Islanders feel about Nuclear Energy, increased Oil Production, and Oil Tankers in the inside passage. Canada's 'Minister of Energy' (as Lunn recently called himself in a speech in Washington) is also Canada's biggest proponent of these activities.
	07 06 05	Daniel 156.34.71.198
I think that, while the anonymous contributor below has a point about the NDP being the most likely party to knock off the Tories here, his/her other points are a bit off. If voters in Saanich-Gulf Islands detect a Conservative sweep of Quebec, the last thing they'll do is run out and turf the only cabinet minister on Vancouver Island (since a CPC sweep in Quebec probably means that Harper will still be PM). Additionally, if the new Liberal candidate is somehow scaring away right-leaning Liberals, I would venture to guess that those people would be more likely to vote for Gary Lunn (or even the Greens) than for the NDP. My prediction right now remains in the ?Conservative hold? category, but any seismic shift in support could knock Mr. Lunn on his ear.
	07 05 26	anonymous 24.68.87.127
The previous Liberal's comments do reflect the prevailing wisdom about the riding, however, this wisdom is simply incorrect. The most recent poll puts the NDP at 30% and the Liberals at 29% with the Greens at 16%. The last 5 BC Ipsos-Reid polls are summarized here: http://paulitics.files.wordpress.com/2007/05/8-prov-bc.jpg If the Conservatives truly do drop to 24% as the latest BC Ipsos-Reid suggests then this is a definite NDP win. That number shows a substantial backlash against the Conservatives which will go to the most likely winner in the riding based on the previous election's results. The NDP came second therefore they are best positioned to hold that. I don't think it will be that dire for the Conservatives in BC. Having said that, Gary Lunn is the Harper cabinet minister who received the lowest percentage of the vote in 2006 and he is destroyable in the next election. Lunn's stand on Nuclear Power, allowing oil exploration and ignoring the Tanker moratorium are all likely to hurt him, in this riding that voted 63% against him last time. High levels of support for the Conservatives in early voter returns in Quebec will also have an effect on this riding with a last minute run to the polls to prevent a Conservative win. The NDP's candidate, Dr. Julian West appears to be a fairly strong candidate with solid academic and Green credentials having only joined the NDP from the Green Party in 2003. Andrew Lewis on the other hand has dropped in votes every single time he has run (this will be his fourth and the Greens have never done better than fourth place in this riding federally). As a politician if you are dropping each time out you should know better than to try again. Penn is a very strong candidate but she is completely in the wrong party. Her criticisms of the Liberals will effectively hurt the Liberals elsewhere and the result will be a holding of the pocketbooks and low donations amongst local Liberal donors. The Liberals did as well as they did last time by spending nearly $5 a vote versus the NDP's $2.75 (they still came in third). It is unlikely the NDP will spend so little this time with the possibility of winning the riding. Look to Penn having trouble raising money while the NDP spend the ceiling. The most likely scenario is a two way race between the NDP and the Conservatives. Right-wing Liberals will turn away from a candidate they can't possibly support and left-wingers will therefore coalesce around a vote that is clearly against the neo-conservative policies of the Harper government, the NDP. The Liberals have never won Saanich-Gulf Islands and have not represented any part of the riding since 1972 with David Anderson. He represented the federal riding of Esquimalt-Saanich while the NDP's Tommy Douglas represented the Islands. Tommy Douglas hasn't been forgotten here.
	07 05 10	British Columbian (S-GI Resident) 143.161.248.25
I agree that this is not exactly a safe riding for Lunn or the Conservatives. This will be the closest election yet. In the 2004 election Lunn won with a mere 34% in a four-way race with a three-way vote split on the left-centre between the Green party, the NDP and the Liberals, who won 17%, 21% and 27% respectively, with just under 5,000 votes between Lunn and Mulroney. Last election, the NDP picked up 4,000 votes net of the Greens, the Tories picked up 2,000 net of increased turnout, and the Liberals picked up less than 100 votes net of decreased support for the fringe candidates. Last election, green voters realized that they couldn't unseat Lunn by voting Green, so they voted NDP. And Lunn still won fewer votes as a Conservative in both elections than he did with the Alliance. This election, the Liberals are taking steps to establish themselves as a viable alternative for green voters. While they agreed to step aside for the Green leader in Central Nova, the NDP decided to pounce on the opportunity to win a seat instead of helping Elizabeth May. In Saanich-Gulf Islands, the Liberals have nominated former Green party member Dr. Briony Penn. Next election will be the closer than the last two. The Liberals are now a virtually-endorsed alternative for Green voters who have been presented a clear, viable green candidate in Penn. She has roots in the predominantly Liberal Saanich, but currently lives on Saltspring, where the Liberals have failed to make a presence in the past. Meanwhile, the NDP have moved their twice-failed candidate to neighbouring Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca to challenge Keith Martin, and will have to start from scratch promoting a candidate. The NDP are also ay down in BC. In the 2006 election, the Liberals won 27.6% of the vote in BC, and the NDP won 28.6%. A May 3rd Ipsos-Reid poll of BC places the Liberals at 32 (+ 4%, but virtually unchanged within MoE) and the NDP at 15 (-14%). Ouch! http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/polls-britishcolumbia.php Penn is exactly what the Liberals need to win this riding. She can capture the solid 17,000 Liberal votes, take green vote back from the NDP, capture additional Green Party vote, win more support on Saltspring where the Liberals have placed fourth in the past, and win strategic votes from those who see that she clearly has the greatest chance of unseating Lunn. I think this election will be close, but I will give it a Liberal flag to add some colour to this page and to show that there is a clear contest here between Penn and Lunn.
	07 04 07	24.81.18.126
This is not as safe a riding as the Conservatives probably want it to be. There is strong NDP, Liberal, and Green presence here. However, Lunn still won this with almost 7000 vote margin, and he has been an incumbent here for many years. Lunn is also Minister of Natural resources, and with such a high cabinet portfolio, constituents will not want to give him up. Based on voting records, this riding seems to put environment as a high priority. Lunn has been instrumental in bringing about renewable energy resources initiatives and other ‘green’ initiatives. This will really help him in this riding. Paint this riding a healthy blue. Hypothetically, if the NDP and Liberal merge they may have a shot at this riding. But that's just not going to happen anytime soon.
	07 03 30	The Jackal 69.158.31.196
This has been one of the more interesting ridings in the country as a three-way centre-left has allowed the CPC candidate to come up the middle. the feeling here is that history will repeat itself as another three way split is likely to occur combined with Mr.Lunn's profile as a cabinet minister.
	07 03 28	King of Kensington 74.98.171.205
This should be one of the most interesting races to watch. The Greens had their best showing in a federal election in '04 when Andrew Lewis got 17% of the vote. But now the Green Party here is in disarray. Former Green activist Briony Penn, impressed by Dion's ‘green’ credentials, is running for the Liberals here. Meanwhile, Lewis has come out and criticized the Liberal environmental record and Elizabeth May's frequent praising of Dion, which leads to the implication that one should vote strategically, a strategy that helps the Liberals and hurts the Greens. So the Green Party won't do as well here as before. I'm not sure of who the NDP candidate is, but right now I'll say it could go Conservative, Liberal or NDP.