Prediction Changed
10:32 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Saanich-Gulf Islands
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Canadian Action
Arney, Jeremy
Leier, Dale P.
Lewis, Andrew
Lunn, Gary
Christian Heritage
Moreau, Dan
Western Block
O'Brien, Patricia
Penn, Briony
New Democratic
West, Julian (withdrawn)

Hon. Gary Vincent Lunn

2006 Result:
Gary Vincent Lunn **
Jennifer Burgis
Sheila Orr
Andrew Lewis
Patricia O'Brien

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 concerned
Not sure about my prediction except in one sense: tonight (Monday evening the 13th)I received a 'dirty tricks' automated voicemail from someone encouraging me - and presumably thousands of other constituents - to support Julian West of the NDP. Since he has withdrawn, that would be a wasted vote, and it's obvious who the beneficiary would be.
08 10 12
I'm calling this one for Penn as are most of the local political science experts at Uvic etc. If only 40% of the NDP vote migrates to Penn, then she will defeat Lunn. I also think that Lunn's right wing support is not as strong as the last go around. The riding has the third highest concentration of seniors and based on the letters to the editor this weekend and at the all candidates meeting, they are still seriously pissed off at the income trust thing and are waiting to get their revenge on poor Gary even though he didn't have much to do with the decision. Seniors are the bedrock of support for the right of centre vote and they are not all that enthusiastic about the conservatives this time. The left is united because of the silly skinning dipping uproar.
08 10 12 Prediction
If Gary Lunn was not in Cabinet, Penn would win. However, his cabinet post will ensure him a victory on Election Day. The fact that the NDP candidate dropped out will propel luke-warm or strong Lunn supporters to the polls to ensure that he will win.
08 10 10 JLB
Even as an anti-Conservative, I still expect Lunn to be re-elected.
1. The NDP candidate remains on the ballot, and the ‘average’ voter probably doesn't even know that he dropped out, so a significant amount of them will vote for him regardless. This is a crucial core of people who don't pay attention to day-to-day politics, and they merely show up on election day to perform their civic duty.
2. Those voters who do know of the public NDP withdrawal will either split their votes amongst the Liberals/Greens, or just stay home.
Gary Lunn victory.
08 10 10 Ancastarian
I still don't see Lunn losing for the following reasons: 1) As a Cabinet Minister he enjoys a high profile, and alot of free press. 2) While the NDP Candidate has been forced to resign, his name will still appear on the Ballot. This will mean a couple of thousand uninformed voters will still vote for him. 3) While the bulk of the NDP support will probably slide to the Liberals, expect some to slide to the Greens, and some to Lunn. 4) The Conservatives have been consistently polling strongly in BC, which should give Lunn a bounce. 5) You can bet that since the NDP candidate resigned, the conservative party has been devoting alot more resources to Lunn's riding. With the sophisticated technology they possess and strong organization, you can bet that while there might be fewer Tory supporters than supporters for the other parties, the Tories will have a sophisticated effort to get their vote out. I predict Lunn wins, in a real BC nailbiter!
08 10 09 E. L. Smerl
rebel, it's pretty difficult to imagine how anyone associated with the Green Party, which has always made nuclear safety a major focus of their campaigns worldwide, could not react very strongly to Lunn's interference in the CNSC.
Linda Keen's book has put even more emphasis on this. And with Dion and May clearly cross-endorsing each other (much to Dion's benefit as there are a lot more Liberals ready to win due to Green votes than vice versa) and Layton offside sending emails claiming he's about to become the next PM, it doesn't seem likely that the anti-Lunn vote can go anywhere but towards Penn.
Lunn's record is fully as bad as I said it was. I stand by every word of it but my main point is that from the Green perspective it's even worse than what the average voter must think of it.
08 10 08 Newcomer
Recent polls show that 40% of NDP supporters would vote Liberal as their second choice. That, perhaps, will make this race the closest in BC. She was courted by the Green Party and NDP as well. With that type of popularity, even I would vote for her!
08 10 07 Green at Heart
Nick Boragina on 08 - 09 - 26 asked the very useful question - is there enough of a Harper vs. Not-Harper feeling to make this a Harper VS not Harper election?
I think the groundswell of on-line activism around strategic voting over the last week clearly shows that this has indeed become the defining question of the election.
I've received over a dozen emails from friends encouraging me to vote strategically to oust Harper. Ditto for anti-Harper Facebook group invites. Today there was a letter signed by over 120 of Canada's top climate scientists urging the same. Avaaz is campaigning on the issue, and using a song created by a number of top Canadian artists urging Canadians to unite against Harper. Greenpeace and the Sierra Club sent a joint plea urging me to vote pro-environment and anti-Harper, something I can't ever remember happening before. The CAW, Canada's largest union, has endorsed the website. And the list goes on...
The message has gone viral and it's traveling fast enough that I think it will carry the day, and a lot of folks like me who've voted Green in previous elections in this riding will be swayed to vote Liberal. After all, Brionny Penn has great local cred and is a green-enough candidate that she was courted by the Green Party before deciding to run with the Liberals. And I think most Green supporters are realistic enough to realize that Andrew Lewis doesn't have a strong enough base of support to take it away from the Conservatives. And with West out of the race I think Penn will bring most of the Dippers along, as well. Where else can they reasonably cast their votes if they don't want to see Lunn back in Ottawa?
So it might be close, but in the end I think the anti-Harper forces will take it and Lunn will lose to Penn. At least, that's what I am counting on by deciding to try strategic voting for the first time in my life, rather than voting with my heart!
08 10 07 Alta Vista Dude
Briony Penn is taking too much for granted in assuming that NDP supporters in this riding will automatically support Dion and the Liberals. There is a lot of bad blood stemming from the fact that it was the Liberals who outed West. I believe a lot of NDP supporters will sit on their hands, particularly now that it looks like PM Harper is no longer going to get his majority. Lunn wins in a squeaker.
08 10 06 Saanichton Resident
Penn has put in a lot of work and the inertia of Lunn is not enough to keep ahead of the additional NDP free votes.
08 10 05 Frank Hanley
With Julian West out of the running, it'll be hard to say where the Dipper votes will go. They could swing to the Liberals, or the Greens, or the voters may just stay at home. Either a Liberal or Green win is preferable to re-electing the H.O.-Scale M.P. for this riding.
08 10 04 Burt
Briony Penn is head-and-shoulders above both Liberal and NDP candidates last time, and now there is no NDP competition. So considering last election's numbers, she'll win. Lunn will certainly get no more votes than he did last time, and probably less.
08 10 04 MH
Two Cents expresses the view that concern about RRSP's will motivate voters to support Gary Lunn. I think his argument is faulty. Anyone dependent on RRSP's and RRIF's for pension income will not have forgotten what Messrs Harper and Flaherty did to income trusts two years ago. S-GI is home to lots of people who have reason to resent the government's flip flop on income trusts. With the NDP sidelined, their choice is likely to be either Liberal or Green. My guess is that on election night Mr. Lunn will be one of a handful of Conservative incumbents to taste defeat, and that Briony Penn will top the polls.
08 10 02 rebel
E. L. Smerl's polemic against Gary Lunn was the most extreme that I have seen posted so far this campaign. Anyone who does not vote Liberal must be condemned and ostracized for all time. I do feel sorry for those sad souls who actually vote for the party of their choice.
In any event, the right wing splinter parties will not garner many votes...But I do think it will be a difficult battle for Lunn for re-election. It will not be easy for the Liberal candidate either, who is attempting to move forward when her party is in deep trouble in BC and may lose all but perhaps two of its seats. Too close to call before the Debate...
08 10 02 Two Cents
I no longer live on the Island, but I did for over 20 years and most of my family is still there. Talking to family and friends I fail to see why the Liberals and their Green supporters simply assume that everyone will cast their vote on the basis of environmental policy. Yes the environment is important, especially in BC. But it's not the only thing. Not surprisingly, therefore, I believe that other issues such as the economy (and RRSPs) as well as health care (this is Victoria after all) are at the top of voters' minds. For this reason, I see no reason why Gary Lunn will have any difficulty in holding this seat.
08 10 01 E. L. Smerl
Even more likely to go Liberal given three vote-splitting wing nuts running (Libertarian, Christian Heritage, Western Block) who will likely draw from Lunn, with the left wing (CAP etc.) from NDP. Andrew Lewis has lost a great deal of credibility within the Greens for refusing to go along with Elizabeth May's request to strategically vote and for not recognizing that with BOTH the NDP and Liberals running a former Green this was the easiest riding in which Greens could vote strategically and trust their MP to carry the right message to Ottawa. He's a falling not rising star within the GPC after coming fourth twice despite high expectations and he will not be getting any leaders' visits this election - he's on his own.
West, sadly for the anti-Harper forces, has refused to endorse Penn or even to set conditions for doing so, meaning he's encouraging a rump wasted vote of 5 to 15 per cent depending how many people know he has dropped out (this is not signalled on the ballot). That's the end of Julian West as a player in the NDP or any other party, he's betraying his values out of misguided loyalty to those who already cut him loose for no good reason. He may wake up and change his mind, however, the lack of any endorsement means there is no resentment among NDP supporters who resent being ‘told’ who to vote for, and that may result in less reactive votes for NDP out of spite. NDPers may decide for themselves who to vote for in the absence of such guidance and that may mean just as many go Liberal as with an endorsement.
The only seeming certainty is that the Green Party will come third. ;-) But this isn't enough of a prize to Greens who may obey May not Lewis and vote strategically to take out Lunn.
After the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission fiasco and Lunn firing Linda Keen, head of that commission, any serious Green will be after Lunn's head.
Lunn even wants to build nuclear reactors in the Tar Sands at vast expense delaying serious alternatives for decades. Leaving him in office would be insane for anyone who genuinely believes in the Green platform in any way.
They'll vote strategically, for Penn, and the NDPers will likely follow.
08 09 28 Grump Dog
A few factors need to be considered here. The Liberal numbers in BC are collapsing (Ipsos as of the 27th has them at 13%, Harris Decima has 21%, Angus Reid 18%) Most of these numbers mean very few or possible ZERO for the Liberals in BC.
So can Penn, by the nature of West withdrawing overcome this hurdle?
I believe no. West will still get votes...Zeisman lost 15% of the vote in Southern Interior in 2006 (from 37% to 20%). So even a pessimist would have West with 5-10%. My bet is more.
Andrew Lewis historically gets double the vote the party does province wide. So he is good for 15-25% at least.
So taking the worst case scenarios (5% for West, 15% for Lewis) That means Briony and Gary would be neck and neck IF all the left over NDP went Liberal. And, as Mr. Schulman points out, this is a fundamental misunderstanding of British Columbia where Conservative/NDP switchers are more common than NDP/Liberal switchers except in the most urban of areas and these are the suburbs.
Lunn need only pick up a few NDP votes, while Briony needs almost all of it and cannot afford to lose any of her Liberal votes (which the polls show is almost impossible for her to do). Remember local campaigns only have a minor influence on voter preference.
The math doesn't work for Penn. Lunn will win with low 40% of the vote. Penn cannot make up for the hermoraging of the national Liberal campaign. And expect Lewis to do better than I have predicted here.
08 09 28 frank1100
Biony Penn seems to have everything going for her. Her environmental policy is very good, and she seems to know her subject. She also has a good push from the withdrawal of the NDP candidate. The liberals and NDP were both close in this riding and the combined votes outdistances Lunn by 10,000 votes. The greens will pick up some of this support but I think Ms Penn will be the beneficiary of most as she is a left-leaning Liberal and the disenfranchised NDP's will have a place to park their vote to stop the perceived anti-green Harper. A liberal pick-up (probably one of the few in Canada)
08 09 27 Boy Waffle
This will be one to stay up for on election night! It'll be close, but I think that Briony Penn must have the advantage at this point in time. Yes, some people will still vote for Julian West, but probably fewer than the nearly nine thousand who voted for Derek Zeisman in BCSI in 2006: I think that there is a lot of Nick Boragina is right in identifying this as a Harper-or-not-Harper kind of election, and consequently a frustrated NDP'er has more motivation to hold their nose and vote for another party than a frustrated Conservative would have had last time around. Moreover, Andrew Lewis is widely regarded as being more on the right wing of the Green party;
so there is very little incentive for NDP supporters in S-GI to move in that direction.
08 09 26 MH
My reliable informant in Victoria tells me that, until Julian West dropped out, Gary Lunn was poised to repeat. Now all bets are off. Briony Penn is the chief beneficiary of West's departure. The Greens will increase their share of the vote, but to those who fear a Conservative majority a vote for Penn makes more sense. My guess: The Liberals will not take the seat by a wide margin, but they will probably take it.
08 09 26 Nick J Boragina
For this site I think a few important questions need to be asked.
First - Is there enough of a Harper VS Not-Harper feeling to make this a Harper VS Not-Harper election? For years people have been trying to argument that the greens and NDP are the same thing, right or wrong. This election, Harper has said the Liberals are like the NDP, and many predictors in this very riding have said the Liberals are like the Greens. I think therefore it is reasonable to conclude the it is a Harper VS Not-Harper election.
Second - How will the loss of the NDP effect this riding. I think that one is simple, the die-hards will vote NDP anyway, and the others will break Liberal and Green.
Third - Is there a chance that with a Harper VS Not-Harper split, that the Greens and Liberals can split the vote and let Harper win this riding? I say yes, that's certainly possible.
Fourth - If ‘Not-Harper’ carries this riding, which ‘Not-Harper’ will it be. The Liberals did very well here last time, but are currently polling very very poorly in BC. The Greens did well here in 2004, then lost a chunk of the vote in 2006, but are currently statistically tied with the Liberals in BC.
IMHO it comes down to this. Either the Tories carry the riding, or the Liberals/Greens do. The decision needs to be made if the Tories can win here, and if not, which of the Liberals/Greens has what's needed to win. IMHO that's how the decision process needs to go here.
08 09 25 badinsults
You know, I moved away from the Saanich Gulf-Islands area about 9 months ago, and I still doubt that Lunn will lose (although I truly hope he does lose). Briony Penn is a bit of a wildcard now that the NDP candidate has been outed (from what I heard, the Liberals knew about this over a year ago, and were waiting for the right time to let the info out). Sidney is full of retired people and Saanich is largely a rural area - two demographics that favour the Conservatives. Although Penn seems like a really good person, I recall their campaigning last year, and it was a mess. Maybe things have changed since I moved, but I still predict a Conservative hold.
08 09 25 Michael
One poll (albeit with a small sample size) is now showing the Liberals behind the Green Party in BC. Although it's just possible that this might just be a general rise in support across the province, thinly spread, it's much more likely that it indicates a combination of general support, and a few ridings with a much higher percentage. Since this is certainly one of the strongest Green ridings in the country, it stands to reason that a lot of that support is concentrated here. Fifteen in the polls is certainly enough to expect some seats to be won, and this is by far the most logical seat for them to win... It looks as though the Liberals are starting to give up. This means that voters will start looking more to the NDP and Greens, and there is no NDP candidate here. That means a horserace between Lewis and Lunn...
08 09 25 Porter
The NDP candidate has been pulled from the campaign but I understand his name will still appear on the ballet. Therefore while the Libs and Greens will gain some vote as a result it will likely still be split...
08 09 25 Mudkips
Even if 100% of the NDP vote went to the Green Party (not likely), they still wouldn't win this seat. They will massively increase their percentage, but the Liberal's high profile candidate will take this one.
08 09 24 British Columbian (S-GI Resident)
This riding is not going Green, no matter how many people post that it will. For the Greens to win, their vote share would increase by over 2006 by 250%! If EVERY single 2006 NDP vote went to the Greens, they would still lose. With the Conservatives up in BC this ISN'T GONNA HAPPEN! The Greens lost 40% of the vote between 2004 and 2006. After all the hype that Andrew Lewis would become the first Green MP, he never even came close, and is drifting into obscurity. The more people who think that the Greens can win this riding, the more likely Gary Lunn will win again.
For the Liberals to catch up to Gary Lunn, they need about 7,500 votes from the NDP, representing less than half of the 2006 NDP total. They will probably need a couple extra thousand because Lunn will have some extra support as a cabinet minister and with the Tories are polling well in BC (less people angry about the firing of the nuclear safety watchdog). This will be quite difficult, but Briony Penn is probably the only Liberal candidate who could do it.
Briony Penn has fantastic credentials as an environmental activist; she was actually courted as a candidate by all three parties, but decided to run with the Liberals. Not only can she appeal to members of both the Green and NDP parties, but many people in these parties already must think that she is the best candidate. Many New Democrats already supported Penn to begin with (I have spoken to several), and the resignation will release many more partisans to support her. Briony is anew face in the Liberal party, so people don't see her as a partisan.
There are different types of NDP voters. First there are the hardcore partisans. These people always vote NDP, who will ONLY vote for the NDP, and who would never vote for a Liberal. If you look at the 2000 election, only 4,644 people voted NDP. So the base support couldn't be more than 30% of the 2006 vote. And this election might even be a bit of an exception for these people if the Liberal candidate is Penn. This is very likely given that some NDP partisans were supporting her already.
The Other NDP voters include people who like the populist message, were unhappy with the Liberals, uncomfortable with the Conservatives, and unenthusiastic about throwing their vote away to the Greens. With the Tories on the verge of a majority, the fear of a Neo-Conservative government trumps the anger over the now-distant sponsorship scandal. And with no NDP candidate, many of these voters will vote Liberal, some might vote Green, and some simply might not be paying enough attention to know that West has dropped out and will vote for him anyway (he is still on the ballot).
Even though some former NDP votes will surely spill to the Greens, some Green vote will spill over to the Liberals as well. The fact is that many partisan Greens wanted Penn as their candidate, and if they see a reasonable prospect of her winning, they will abandon the cynical Andrew Lewis and will vote for her.
It will be relatively close, but I think that Penn can knock off Lunn. Unless enough people are fooled into voting for Lewis, which I doubt will happen.
08 09 24 John
I was reading today the NDP candidate decided to throw in the towel and resign. Result of an indecent where he skinny-dipped 12 years ago.
If even half the NDP support goes to the Liberals, Lunn is toast.
Prior to this I said the riding would stay Conservative. Now I think this is one the Liberals will pick up with a pretty decent margin.
08 09 24 rb
With the departure of the NDP candidate the only questions is where they will go, Liberal or Green. I suggest that most will go Liberal to block the tories making an easy pick up for the Liberals.
08 09 24 John Carpenter
It seems with the after-the-deadline withdrawal of Julian West that an opportunity for the Green Party has opened up. Several interviews with Elizabeth May, Adrienne Carr, etc have pointed to this riding as a breakthrough possibility. How much more of a breakthrough can there now be without an NDP candidate?
A close Green Party victory, followed by the Conservatives and a barely alive Liberal.
08 09 24 Al
Woah - hold everything, there is no longer an NDP candidate here and this changes everything. Where will all those NDP votes go?
I'm going to have to go out on a limb and say Green here. This is still TCTC, however, this riding could have the Green's only MP here.
08 09 24 E. L. Smerl
This one's going to buck the national and BC trends and go Liberal. With Linda Keen's timely resignation and tell-all memoir about Lunn's shameful performance in the Chalk River affair, a nudist NDP candidate out of the race (and possibly not replaceable at this late date), and Greens getting a pretty clear strong signal from their own leader to vote strategically any where there is no star Green candidate or in any swing riding, Penn should be able to win this.
If all else fails, she can ride naked to the polls on a horse to bring out the male youth vote. Unlike poor Julian West, seeing Penn get naked would be an effective youth motivator. Sorry Julian: Sexism is alive and well. Show hose, get hosed.
08 09 24 Andrew S
With the NDP candidate dropping out of the race today, too late to be replaced, the left-side votesplitting will drop. Liberal candidate looks to do poorly; I suspect these votes will greenshift, not blueshift. But we will have to wait and see to be sure.
08 09 24 T.V.
With the withdrawal of the NDP candidate, this is a unique and extraordinary opportunity for the Liberals to pick up this seat. Having chosen a strong candidate will help them capitalize, as people will realize that they are the only winnable option on the left.
08 09 24 Rebel
It appears that the NDP couldn't renominate or appoint a candidate in time for this riding - a fact which throws the entire scenario of Lunn winning easily over a divided opposition out the window. The NDP vote was second last time and must bleed in three directions, but principally favouring the Greens, ironically the party which has the furthest to go to take the seat.
Till the smoke clears and the NDP vote shifts, the riding is likely tctc...
08 09 24 Mic
I wasn't sure about this riding before, but now that the NDP don't have a candidate here, I think the Green's definitely got a very realistic chance here. The Green vote was not that bad here compared to other ridings in 2006, and seeing as the Green Party support is surging in BC, I think this could be a riding for them.
08 09 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
The Liberals must be ecstatic in this riding. The NDP candidate has been pulled for swimming naked somewhere there was kids ten years ago (or something convoluted like that). IT's too late for NDP for get another candidate and it's very likely the Liberals will get the bulk of the NDP vote. The Greens will take a good share and had Liz May ran here we'd say it'd have gone Green for sure. Not ready to call Liberal just yet, but it's looking much more promising for the Grits.
08 09 23 awum
Wow, the game just changed. The Liberals are going to take this one. No NDP candidate running now, a strong Liberal candidate to start with, so the amount of vote-splitting will be way way down. Expect the lion's share of NDP votes to swing to the Liberal candidate. Enough to eclipse the difference between the Liberal and Conservative votes from the last election.
08 09 23
Vancouversun has just stated that the NDP candidate Julian West has quit and was not able to replace him before the deadline on September 22, 2008. I think this will help the Liberals in getting a larger share of the vote.
08 09 23 Nick J Boragina
In all honesty and seriousness, I think the Greens will win here. The NDP candidate has dropped out. Weather he will be able to drop from the ballot (See BC Southern Interior in 2006) matters not IMO. This is one of the best Green ridings in the country with one of that party's strongest candidates. The Greens are also polling 15%-20% in BC. With these numbers, these candidates, and this local riding history (the NDP is down and out in this riding and the Liberals are polling horribly in BC) this all spells a Green victory. May may win her seat (pun intended) and I think she will, but if the Greens end this election with only one seat (as opposed to two) this will be that one seat.
08 09 23 Joey Joe Joe
NDP candidate has withdrawn so the centre left vote moves to the Liberals and makes this a two party race. With the Liberals and NDP totaling 34,500 votes last time between them they easily outmatch the Conservatives 24,000. Liberals only need to pick up 50% of the NDP vote and would beat Lunn by 1500.
08 09 23 Brian Smith
I am a great supporter of Gary Lunn and still beleieve that he will win. However, the resignation of West, the NDP candidate, will make this a much closer race than previously forecast. Lunn will have to make extra efforts to get out the vote.
08 09 23 VanToria
NDP Candidate Julian West has announced he's dropping out because of skinny dipping gate. Doesn't look like there will be enough time to replace him or get his name off the ballot. Dippers could rally behing Penn and steal this from Lunn.
08 09 23 Young Voter
The NDP candidate in this riding stepped down today. I think that gives this riding to Penn. Last election the NDP and Liberals split 34 000 votes down the middle. Compare this to the 24 000 votes garnered by Lunn and the math becomes obvious. Every NDP supporter will now be forced to vote strategically: vote green to send a message (whatever that may be), vote liberal and remove a conservative cabinet minister or stay home. It still might be close, but given Penn's green credentials and the respect she commands in this riding, I think she is now a shoe in.
08 09 23 No nudes is good nudes?
Julian West, the NDP candidate has just dropped out of the race (due to recent media interest in the candidate skinny dipping around minors during an enivronmental retreat in 1996) - and since it is past the date that candidates can file for election, the NDP will have no candidate in this election. The question is - to whom will the usual Dipper support go?
08 09 23 G-C-H
With the NDP out of the race, and the non-Conservative vote being >60% from last time, the Conservative chances have just plummeted. It would more likely go Green or Liberal I think.
A Green victory is entirely possible. Decima has the Greens leading the Liberal vote by 7%, although I know it's just one poll. It's now a three way race.
08 09 23 Shun Lunn
Please disregard any former comments.
Had to change the prediction now that the vote split matters not in S-GI.
Good bye Gary!
08 09 23 Seth
The Tories won this with 37% of the vote, thanks to vote splitting on the left. Now that Julian West has resigned and there is no NDP candidate, this is Gary Lunn's to lose. The Liberals only got 26% last time; with them tanking in the polls expect them to not do much better this time. Watch the NDP vote flock to the Green party.
Green 38%
Conservative 37%
Liberal 25%
08 09 23 B Town
Well breaking news has just given Bernard von Schulmann that unthinkable situation where Julian West would get less than 15%. The NDP has a strong voice; strong enough to have hardliners that would stick to the party despite the Conservation voters of BC picking Birony Penn as their strategic choice. But with the deadline for candidate entries into this election has past the NDP total will be zero.
The Greens will claim that this now gives them the standing to be best green chance in BC, but with Birony's credentials she will come out with the lions share of the anti-Lunn vote.
Lunn's vote will at best stay the same. If we are using the same numbers as last time, that would mean that Penn would need to add under 8000 votes to Sheila Orr's total. If you give an overly generous remainder of the NDP vote to the Greens that would give them about 16000 votes. That's at a bare minimum in my eyes. I don't see a blowout for Birony, but she will likely come out with a respectable lead.
08 09 22 Dr. J.
As others have observed, this one could almost any way. I am going to go out on a limb, however, and predict that Penn takes it. I think that there will lots of strategic voting in this riding to keep Lunn out. I know of two people who live in Victoria where they will vote NDP who are campaigning in this riding for Penn -- partly because they like her personally and partly because they want to encourage strategic voting. Also, the NDP candidate is weak and some support will go Liberal. Penn can also attract votes from the Greens. Mixed Member Proportional can't come soon enough.
08 09 22 Bernard von Schulmann
What ever one is focusing on are the results in 2004 and 2006. The big change in that election is that Gary Lunn was running as a Conservative and no longer as a Reformer/CA.
In 93, 97 and 2000 the combined vote of the right was over 50%. In 1988 it was about 47%.
People are forgetting that a lot of the people that voted for the Reform party are strong supporters of populism. The merger of the Alliance and the PCs left most of the populist homeless and many of them ended up voting for the NDP in 2004 and 2006. They represent about one in seven people in the riding.
The last party these people will vote for are the Liberals. They might vote Green or NDP. They may also go back to the right.
Gary Lunn reached a nadir of support with 34.57% of the vote in 2004 - it rose in 2006 and based on provincial polling, it looks to be rising again. I would be shocked if he remained below 40% of the vote.
This leaves 60% for the other three parties to split up.
Clearly the Green Party is going to get over 20% of the vote, there is no way they are not going to get there when they are polling at 13%-18% in BC. They should end up at about 25% in this riding - a very realistic result in BC these days from the Greens in their stronger areas.
This is leaves 35% for Julian West and Briony Penn to fight out over. I can not imagine an scenario where Julian West would get less than 15% of the vote - that is his utter basement number. This leave Briony Penn with a MAXIMUM result of 20% though much more likely lower than that.
The only sort of person who might be able to win against Gary Lunn in this riding is a folksy populist New Democrat.
08 09 22 Two Cents
I have watched the national media talk about the strength of the Greens here. They don't know what they are talking about. I think that the media is confused by the fact that the Gulf Islands are part of teh riding's name. Sure that is one part of the riding, but the bulk of the population lives on the peninsula and let there be no doubt. this has been a Conservative heartland since before George Pearkes held the seat under Dief.
08 09 22 Calev
well now we have two nude controversies in this riding alone. First up, Julian West running for the NDP, the Liberals released a newspaper article from 12 years ago outlining West's exploits at an environmental conference.
West reportedly took off his clothes on several occasions during that weekend in front of minors. But apparently the Liberals forget to check their own candidate. Brioney Penn, had taken off her clothes at a rally against logging in 2001. Penn was stark naked on a horse, wearing a long blond wig, playing the role of Lady Godiva. May I say, thank god Gary Lunn hasn't appeared naked, that I know of, that is something I never want to see!
08 09 20 John
I have to agree with Calev here.
If May had run here, this riding would have stood a good chance at going Green. In fact, IIRC, a couple of elections back this riding had one of the strongest bases of Green support in the country.
However, May chose to run in Central Nova, and I can understand her reasons even though I think she will be tilting at windmills there.
Result, the Conservatives will retain this riding.
08 09 20 splinterjete
This may seem somewhat far-fetched but it is what the polls are pointing to. With the most recent polls showing the Greens at around 15% in B.C. - 3 times the 5% they netted in the previous election. If these polling trends hold, this will translate into an easy Green pick-up here. This would be even more likely to occur if local Liberal and NDP supporters realize that the Lewis is the most viable candidate to unseet Lunn, suport will crystallize behind the Greens in this riding. Prediction: Greens 30%; Conservatives 30%; NDP 23%; Liberal 17%.
08 09 15 Calev
This could have been a closer race and possibly have the first elected Green Party MP, had May choose to run here. A party leader plus the combination of the Liberal vote, seeing as I would assume that the same deal she got in Central Nova would carry over here too, would probably allowed a win for her here but seeing as she choose to run in Central Nova I believe this riding has a Conservative edge but not guaranteed win.
08 09 11 Shun Lunn
A repeat of the vote split amongst progressives in this riding will deliver for the conservatives as it has for all but two elections in the entire history of the riding. Tommy Douglas being one of the exceptions.
Unfortunately, the NDP's Julian West is no Tommy Douglas and Andrew Lewis blue tone of green has managed to lose half of the green support over the last two elections.
The liberals have managed to scare up a decent candidate for this riding but overcoming the vote split will be a near impossibility.
08 09 11 Shun Lunn
The Shun Lunn campaign was sparked by the conservative manipulation of the vote split that has dominated the entire history of this riding.
The campaign originally forwarded the notion of a pre-election election amongst the opposition parties to establish one candidate to defeat Mr.Lunn and better represent the riding's majority.
The snap election derailed that effort and now there are three options the campaign is considering:
1) have ndp members request West stand down
2) endorse the strongest candidate (which looks like Penn)
3) push strategic voting
08 09 11 Bernard von Schulmann
Gary Lunn will be back as MP again.
The question voters that are not Conservatives are going to make is who is their best shot at defeating Gary Lunn.
Julian West of the NDP will benefit because he is running for the party that was second last time and the only party not on the right to win the riding in the past. He should benefit from strategic voting.
Briony Penn of the Liberals suffers from her party declining badly in BC and never having been able to a real threat to win in the riding in the past.
Andrew Lewis may get a lot more support because of the visibility of Elizabeth May and may also getting people voting for him to elect a Green MP. I see a lot of 'what the hell' attitude out there and this could be enough to dramatically boost his vote.
08 09 10
This riding should give the nod to the Conservatives. Things are good, with no real local issues on the Federal front. The Liberals have a very well qualified candidate, however she will bleed support from the Greens. The NDP are likely not to do as well this time around, unless Liberal support dissipates to the NDP.
Gary Lunn has done a reasonable job in the riding and his current Ministerial profile is an advantage to not only the riding but also south Vancouver Island.
I see 'blue' for this riding.
08 09 09 awum
Unite the Left, you people!!
That the CPC will likely win this seat again is nothing short of obscene. Look at those voting numbers, add up the NDP, Green and Liberal numbers and you see what I mean. This is NOT in any way a ‘conservative’ riding, but the idiots in the other three parties with ensure a CPC candidate goes to Ottawa.
Seriously, get off your ass, get your heads together in that riding, get behind a SINGLE moderate-left candidate and kick ass. Otherwise, don't bother, might as well just stay home, you're going to get a CPC MP either way.
08 09 07
Let's face it - this riding would naturally be one of the main targets for the Green Party. Saltspring Island is jam packed with hacky-sack playing, crochet-hat wearing granolas. The Greens poll well in this riding, but their appeal is limited to Saltspring Island amd some NIMBY types. The Greens, the Liberals, and the NDP will all once again scrap and fight for the same piece of the electoral pie. The municipalities of North Saanich, Central Ssanich and Sidney will once again put Gary Lunn into first place. A strong farming tradition, rural values and a tinge of west-coast libertarianism still hold sway in part of this riding.
08 09 06 Rolf
This was one of the strongest Green showings last election. Watch for them to build momentum and come out on top this time.
08 08 31 E. L. Smerl
Briony Penn is a very strong candidate whose Green credentials outshine the rather bitter Andrew Lewis. Liberal pickup, especially if the federal Green and NDP campaigns realize that they're better off with Gary Lunn out of the House and Harper with a thinner bench to choose from, even if he retains a minority. The fewer Harper cabinet ministers survive the more rookies and backbenchers he has to appoint and the more likely a profound scandal comes.
Lunn, Clement, Cannon, Bernier, Baird, Flaherty, MacKay, any of these could be re-elected by vote-splitting and so expect formal (Central Nova) and informal pullbacks in these ridings to ensure Harper loses ministers.
08 07 05 binriso
Maybe the greens should just pull their candidate and support the Liberals here? If not Lunn would probably win again. The Liberals could pull their candidate from Bruce Grey Owen Sound in Ontario in exchange which might actually give the Greens a chance in that riding because of their good candidate. Still this riding will probably elect a Conservative next election.
08 04 04 Bernard
I see a lot of wishful thinking out there, but no evidence that anything other than a Gary Lunn re-election is on the cards for the riding.
What evidence is there that Gary is going to lose votes? At 37-40% of the vote, he is in no danger of losing.
The Liberals at their best have not been able to break the 1/3 of the vote mark - this includes 2000 when the NDP cratered to almost nothing.
08 03 03 A.S.
The Nukegate minister in the riding where Greens got their best general-election percentage ever (so far): what a toxic combo. The scary thing is, Gary Lunn could still win, albeit in an extraordinary ‘Saskatoon-Humboldt’ quarter-of-the-vote situation--or maybe just win as he's won before, if his party's earned majority-worthy voter forgiveness...
08 01 16 Daver
Mr. Lunn certainly has received a lot of press exposure with the firing of the President of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission. Most people I have spoken to see this as a crazy and vindictive action that undermines nuclear safety and makes Canada look like a third world dictatorship. I doubt he will survive the next election. Looks like this riding will go either NDP or Liberal.
08 01 12
Lunn's getting press now, but it isn't good press at all. People on Vancouver Island aren't going to be impressed by having their MP (mis)managing the nuclear and oil industries. The Liberal candidate is strong and has good environmental credentials, which should cut into the Green vote enough to give her the win. In the last two elections, the Greens actually had a hope of winning. Now that they know it isn't in the cards, they'll focus on defeating the Tory Minister of Nukes.
08 01 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We can't help but wonder what, if any, effect the threatening of firing the head of the Nuclear Safety Commission. If this blows into something big (and the opposition will try their best to make it blossom into a scandal), and you couple it with the relative strength of both the Liberals, Greens and NDP in this riding as well as the general weakness the CPC has on Vancouver Island, this could spell Lunn's downfall. Or it could all fizzle out and Lunn comes out unscathed. Just something to watch for now.
07 10 08 John
I have to agree with Ancastarian here. As a cabinet minister, Lunn gets a lot of free press. On top of that, he is the incumbent and he has kept his nose pretty clean.
While last election wasn't a landslide, he did have a comfortable margin.
This seat will stay Conservative.
07 09 23 Ancastarian
The NDP posters here are seriously misguided if they think the NDP will take this riding. Gary Lunn is a high-profile Cabinet Minister. Why would the voters of Saanich-Gulf Islands remove him in return for a no-name back-bencher? Lets not forget that the Liberals also polled very well here. While I predict that without the Greens, Lunn?s plurality might be severely reduced, he will hold this seat.
07 07 12 Porter
We might be about to see the seismic shift in support that would indeed knock Mr. Lunn on his ear. In addition to existing local poll numbers indicating a push for change in a riding that very left wing, the Greens may not run a candidate for this riding to reduce vote splitting on the left.
‘Prominent Green Party activists in the area are taking Elizabeth May's lead and asking members not to run a candidate. Their reasoning? Because Gary Lunn...they really want to defeat him, and they fully admit that a Green Party candidate is not the one to do it.’
‘The reason that this is especially good for NDP candidate Julian West is that the NDP seems to pick up stray Green votes in the riding, as evidenced by past election results. Between 2004 and 2006 the Green vote dropped more than 6% and the NDP vote went up nearly 6%, while the Liberal vote was nearly unchanged (only 60 new votes).’
The open letter in question can be found at the citation below on date Thursday July 12, 2007:
Quotes cited from
07 07 11 interested
Today's letter to members by influential Green Party folks, Guy Dauncey, Marlyn Horsdal, Casey Brennan, Harold Wolf, Will Horter and Dorothy Cutting calling for the Green Party to not run a candidate makes the chances of defeating Gary Lunn much higher.
The letter calls on members of the Green Party to work to defeat 'Dirty’ Gary by ensuring that the Green vote is not split 3-ways in a riding where Lunn won with the lowest percentage of support of any federal cabinet minister. The letter goes further to say great things about Lunn's nominated Liberal & NDP opponents.
The NDP having come second in the last election and with the most momentum last time as the Green vote started to implode is the obvious choice, however, the Liberals are also running a candidate that will compete for voters.
If this proposal to not run a Green candidate goes through or not, the damage is done. Green voters now know that voting Green in this election, when the Green Party has never come anything but fourth in this riding federally is as useless in this first past the post system as voting Conservative in this riding.
A drop of only 5% in Lunn's vote could see both the NDP and the Liberal candidates competing for the No. 1 and No. 2 spots. This seems very likely given the vitriol Saanich-Gulf Islanders feel about Nuclear Energy, increased Oil Production, and Oil Tankers in the inside passage. Canada's 'Minister of Energy' (as Lunn recently called himself in a speech in Washington) is also Canada's biggest proponent of these activities.
07 06 05 Daniel
I think that, while the anonymous contributor below has a point about the NDP being the most likely party to knock off the Tories here, his/her other points are a bit off. If voters in Saanich-Gulf Islands detect a Conservative sweep of Quebec, the last thing they'll do is run out and turf the only cabinet minister on Vancouver Island (since a CPC sweep in Quebec probably means that Harper will still be PM). Additionally, if the new Liberal candidate is somehow scaring away right-leaning Liberals, I would venture to guess that those people would be more likely to vote for Gary Lunn (or even the Greens) than for the NDP.
My prediction right now remains in the ?Conservative hold? category, but any seismic shift in support could knock Mr. Lunn on his ear.
07 05 26 anonymous
The previous Liberal's comments do reflect the prevailing wisdom about the riding, however, this wisdom is simply incorrect.
The most recent poll puts the NDP at 30% and the Liberals at 29% with the Greens at 16%.
The last 5 BC Ipsos-Reid polls are summarized here:
If the Conservatives truly do drop to 24% as the latest BC Ipsos-Reid suggests then this is a definite NDP win. That number shows a substantial backlash against the Conservatives which will go to the most likely winner in the riding based on the previous election's results. The NDP came second therefore they are best positioned to hold that.
I don't think it will be that dire for the Conservatives in BC. Having said that, Gary Lunn is the Harper cabinet minister who received the lowest percentage of the vote in 2006 and he is destroyable in the next election. Lunn's stand on Nuclear Power, allowing oil exploration and ignoring the Tanker moratorium are all likely to hurt him, in this riding that voted 63% against him last time. High levels of support for the Conservatives in early voter returns in Quebec will also have an effect on this riding with a last minute run to the polls to prevent a Conservative win.
The NDP's candidate, Dr. Julian West appears to be a fairly strong candidate with solid academic and Green credentials having only joined the NDP from the Green Party in 2003. Andrew Lewis on the other hand has dropped in votes every single time he has run (this will be his fourth and the Greens have never done better than fourth place in this riding federally). As a politician if you are dropping each time out you should know better than to try again.
Penn is a very strong candidate but she is completely in the wrong party. Her criticisms of the Liberals will effectively hurt the Liberals elsewhere and the result will be a holding of the pocketbooks and low donations amongst local Liberal donors. The Liberals did as well as they did last time by spending nearly $5 a vote versus the NDP's $2.75 (they still came in third). It is unlikely the NDP will spend so little this time with the possibility of winning the riding. Look to Penn having trouble raising money while the NDP spend the ceiling.
The most likely scenario is a two way race between the NDP and the Conservatives. Right-wing Liberals will turn away from a candidate they can't possibly support and left-wingers will therefore coalesce around a vote that is clearly against the neo-conservative policies of the Harper government, the NDP. The Liberals have never won Saanich-Gulf Islands and have not represented any part of the riding since 1972 with David Anderson. He represented the federal riding of Esquimalt-Saanich while the NDP's Tommy Douglas represented the Islands. Tommy Douglas hasn't been forgotten here.
07 05 10 British Columbian (S-GI Resident)
I agree that this is not exactly a safe riding for Lunn or the Conservatives. This will be the closest election yet.
In the 2004 election Lunn won with a mere 34% in a four-way race with a three-way vote split on the left-centre between the Green party, the NDP and the Liberals, who won 17%, 21% and 27% respectively, with just under 5,000 votes between Lunn and Mulroney. Last election, the NDP picked up 4,000 votes net of the Greens, the Tories picked up 2,000 net of increased turnout, and the Liberals picked up less than 100 votes net of decreased support for the fringe candidates. Last election, green voters realized that they couldn't unseat Lunn by voting Green, so they voted NDP. And Lunn still won fewer votes as a Conservative in both elections than he did with the Alliance.
This election, the Liberals are taking steps to establish themselves as a viable alternative for green voters. While they agreed to step aside for the Green leader in Central Nova, the NDP decided to pounce on the opportunity to win a seat instead of helping Elizabeth May. In Saanich-Gulf Islands, the Liberals have nominated former Green party member Dr. Briony Penn.
Next election will be the closer than the last two. The Liberals are now a virtually-endorsed alternative for Green voters who have been presented a clear, viable green candidate in Penn. She has roots in the predominantly Liberal Saanich, but currently lives on Saltspring, where the Liberals have failed to make a presence in the past. Meanwhile, the NDP have moved their twice-failed candidate to neighbouring Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca to challenge Keith Martin, and will have to start from scratch promoting a candidate. The NDP are also ay down in BC. In the 2006 election, the Liberals won 27.6% of the vote in BC, and the NDP won 28.6%. A May 3rd Ipsos-Reid poll of BC places the Liberals at 32 (+ 4%, but virtually unchanged within MoE) and the NDP at 15 (-14%). Ouch!
Penn is exactly what the Liberals need to win this riding. She can capture the solid 17,000 Liberal votes, take green vote back from the NDP, capture additional Green Party vote, win more support on Saltspring where the Liberals have placed fourth in the past, and win strategic votes from those who see that she clearly has the greatest chance of unseating Lunn. I think this election will be close, but I will give it a Liberal flag to add some colour to this page and to show that there is a clear contest here between Penn and Lunn.
07 04 07
This is not as safe a riding as the Conservatives probably want it to be. There is strong NDP, Liberal, and Green presence here. However, Lunn still won this with almost 7000 vote margin, and he has been an incumbent here for many years. Lunn is also Minister of Natural resources, and with such a high cabinet portfolio, constituents will not want to give him up. Based on voting records, this riding seems to put environment as a high priority. Lunn has been instrumental in bringing about renewable energy resources initiatives and other ‘green’ initiatives. This will really help him in this riding. Paint this riding a healthy blue.
Hypothetically, if the NDP and Liberal merge they may have a shot at this riding. But that's just not going to happen anytime soon.
07 03 30 The Jackal
This has been one of the more interesting ridings in the country as a three-way centre-left has allowed the CPC candidate to come up the middle. the feeling here is that history will repeat itself as another three way split is likely to occur combined with Mr.Lunn's profile as a cabinet minister.
07 03 28 King of Kensington
This should be one of the most interesting races to watch. The Greens had their best showing in a federal election in '04 when Andrew Lewis got 17% of the vote. But now the Green Party here is in disarray. Former Green activist Briony Penn, impressed by Dion's ‘green’ credentials, is running for the Liberals here. Meanwhile, Lewis has come out and criticized the Liberal environmental record and Elizabeth May's frequent praising of Dion, which leads to the implication that one should vote strategically, a strategy that helps the Liberals and hurts the Greens. So the Green Party won't do as well here as before. I'm not sure of who the NDP candidate is, but right now I'll say it could go Conservative, Liberal or NDP.

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