Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-24 10:18:00

Constituency Profile


Jackaman, Dale

Peschisolido, Joe

Wolfe, Michael

Wong, Alice

Alice Wong

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • delta-south-richmond (27/235 Polls)
  • richmond (140/206 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 Pinoy Conservative
    Reading the Globe and Mail article that grassroots Liberals have given up trying to unseat Conservative Alice Wong and redirect their resources to try to save other vulonerable Liberals was validated When I saw my Richmond based Liberal Organizer friend walking down the street with Hedy Fry in downtown Vancouver.Jumping Joe is toast
    11 04 25 Boy Waffle
    I have to agree with burlivespipe: if Richmond is such a safe seat, then why did Stephen Harper have to include it in his itinerary last week? Last month he spoke at a rally in Burnaby, which is more what you'd expect of someone hoping to win new seats, rather than worrying about losing old ones. So, while I agree that Joe P. is a very flawed candidate, I have to wonder what the Tories' internal polls are telling them.
    11 04 23 From the Left Coast
    I don't understand why this is even TCTC. Being Chinese myself, from what I can hear on the Chinese talk radio and newspaper, the Conservative are the more popular party. One may argue that this could be a tight race if Raymond Chan, the last (multi-term) Liberal candidate, ran again. But on the same token, he was ham-blasted by the Chinese media for alleged preferential treatment he gave to his supporters. The last time Joe won was against Chan, the then Liberal MP for Canadian Alliance! before he defected to the Liberals.
    The Liberals is now neck and neck with the NDP, if they are to win seats, it should be those that are in Vancouver.
    If it is finally time to call this, it should be a CON-hold.
    11 04 19 burlivespipe
    I can't call this either way but those claiming a Wong walk are off. Chinese local media reports have been scathing over her ineffectiveness, and the harper plan that sees more temporary work visas and has cut in half family reunification. Is Joe-P the man to knock her off? I think Wong will hang on, because the Con machine's well-oiled. But the margin is cutting mighty thin...
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    If it were not for the current polling numbers in BC, we would say Wong in a landslide. Instead we have to say Wong by a fairly comfortable margin.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The Tories should hold this. Even if some of their policies have not been popular amongst the immigrant communities, they won this by 18% and Joe Peschisolido is a turncoat who won under the Alliance banner and then defected to the Liberals but lost the 2004 nomination battle to Raymond Chan. Also this is a centre-right riding as provincially the three ridings in Richmond are amongst the BC Liberals strongest so the Liberal plan to raise corporate taxes and their move to the left will probably hurt them more than help them.
    11 04 16
    burlivespipe, I can only see Wong's margin increasing, not decreasing. If you want an example of ‘weak work,’ it was her Liberal predecessor Raymond Chan who had a dismal attendance record and a tendency to flip-flop. Wong in contrast has been a solid performer, very visible in the community and has a perfect attendance record. She's well-liked, and the fact that Chinese- and Asian-Canadians are not shifting to the Conservatives will strengthen her lead.
    Most of all, this riding will go strongly Conservative, because like what another poster suggested, Joe Peschisolido is a ‘joke candidate.’ People will not forget his turncoat betrayal to the constituency.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    This could be interesting. Wong's got her foot in the door and has incumbency plus the newly inked immigration wave who support the low-tax initiatives of Harper. Those who've been here longer may not be buying her weak work in the constituency and are showing signs of returning to the Liberals. The margin is pretty big, however, and while I'd like to call it for Joe, i see it going Wong down in a photo finish.
    11 04 09 MF
    I don't see why this is TCTC...the Conservatives have made huge inroads in the Chinese community in BC, and won this by 10,000 votes last time against a long-entrenched MP. And this time the Liberal candidate is a joke.
    11 04 09 KRB
    Even if Joe Peschisolido was to win, he would jump to the Conservatives the next day. Don't expect he'll win, but just sayin'.
    11 04 08 C.A.B.
    The Tories won here by 19 points last time, and were just short of an absolute majority; a triumph for Alice Wong in her rematch against Raymond Chan (and a dramatic improvement from her so-so 2004 tally). The Liberals also have lower-hanging fruit in Greater Vancouver - not to mention vulnerable seats that they need to defend. That the Liberals have seen fit to run a candidate who, as an incumbent MP no less, they themselves chose to defeat for renomination in 2004, says a lot about their chances.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    In all likelihood this should stay Tory as this is a centre-right riding especially provincially. The only question is if the Liberals can regain the Chinese vote. The Tories have cut immigration numbers for family reunification while the Liberals have promised to reverse this so despite the Tories maintaining high levels of immigration, this could help the Liberals, but I am skeptical about whether it will have that big an impact. Until more polling is done, I will put this as too close to call, but definitely leans Tory.
    11 04 01 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Joe Pesky is a joke. He went from two-time Toronto area Reform candidate, to Alliance MP, to potential Alliance Leadership Challenger, to Liberal MP, to Nominee Defeatee, to nobody, now to Liberal Nominee. His baggage will weigh down any change the Liberals have of winning here.
    11 03 30 Aniconist
    I don't understand why this is still TCTC. Wong's victory last time out was impressive and Richmond is growing more conservative rather than less -- it is precisely in such suburbs that Harper's cautious income splitting plan will resonate, especially tied to the four year wait which draws attention to his commitment to draw down the deficit.
    11 03 24 Bernard
    Interesting is that the Liberal is former Canadian Alliance MP Joe Peschisolido. He ran and defeated the Liberal Raymond Chan in 2000, crossed to the Liberals but lost the nomination to Raymond Chan in the 2004 election.
    Not a strong Liberal candidate
    11 02 07
    I'm not really sure why this isn't in the Conservative column already. Alice Wong trumped a well-known former Cabinet Minister here by almost 20 points. She has been a very visible MP, especially in the Chinese community. Sure, a massive 11% of voters could swing back to the Liberals and pull an upset, but this is highly unlikely. For example, they have a weak candidate. Joe Peschisolido is a turnout politician and thus does not have a good reputation. Also, he does not have strong roots in the crucial Chinese community. Put Richmond in the Conservative column.
    10 02 11 Marco Ricci
    I would agree that this riding is leaning Conservative right now. The margin of victory for the Conservatives here in 2008 was rather large (almost 20 points).
    The Liberals are polling higher in BC right now than they were in 2008, and so they have the ability to get back some of the votes they lost, but it may not be enough. It's kind of surprising that Raymond Chan was bold enough to run for the Liberal nomination again considering how poorly he did in 2008, so it probably makes sense that they didn't give him the nomination this time.
    While Peschisolido is at a disadvantage against Wong, perhaps the Liberals need someone other than Chan to run here for a change. Peschisolido was an Ignatieff supporter in the leadership, so he will probably have Ignatieff's help in the next election, which is a plus for him. He also seems to be taking his attempt to win back this riding seriously and is opening a new community outreach office which Ignatieff will help him open during the Olympics this week:
    Whether this is enough to win the riding, remains to be seen.
    09 10 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Can not see Peschisolido defeating Alice Wong. As we recall, Peschisolido was the sitting Liberal MP (after crossing the floor) but lost the nomination to Raymond Chan (who he defeated in the previous election) who was defeated by Alice Wong last time around. Now Alice is well know and well liked in the riding. Joe...well...we tend to hear negative things. Still he has a shot if the HST becomes a hot topic issue and the Liberals surge in BC. Then again the Liberals are not clear on their position on HST and it would be the NDP likely to capitalize on such a backlash. Not in this riding, the NDP have never been competetive here.
    09 09 26
    Joe Peschisolido has just been nominated as the Liberal candidate here today. Mason Loh was the only one who could really give Alice Wong a run for her money because he has a strong resume. Pechisolido has angered many people here in Richmond when he crossed the floor in 2002... that ‘Jumpin Joe’ label hasn't left him. His lack of roots in the Chinese community in this riding gives him a great disadvantage.
    Alice Wong has worked hard here over the past year and she is truly ‘everywhere’ as she is very involved in the community. I think she has earned the respect of Richmondites. As a capable incumbent, I predict she will solidify her already vote count to over 50%. While her English communication skills are okay, her Chinese debating skills shine... she is a fesity ‘spitfire’ debater. Peschisolido will have a hard time facing her in debates.
    Remember the Aberdeen Debate last time around? There was huge resentment against the Liberals who got boos from the crowd. It should be no different this time around. Michael Ignatieff's public relations has been a mess. Many voters don't know what he stands for and don't know what he would do differently from Harper. I'd move this riding solidly to the Conservative column.
    09 09 09 S.O.
    There are few certainties in life; death and taxes are two of them. But Alice Wong winning re-election has to be another sure thing. While the riding is definitely not a traditional Conservative stronghold, her margin of victory in the last election (roughly 50% compared to the Liberal 31%) against an incumbent MP who had represented the riding since 1993 (with one exception: 2000-2004 where he was barely edged out 44%-42%) makes her a sure thing.
    With the benefit of incumbency, even if Raymond Chan ran again I can't see this riding going back to the Liberal Party. There would have to be some massive shift in public support from the Conservatives to the Liberals that would put this riding in play again.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    With over 8,000 vote lead and close to 50% of the vote in '08, Wong should hang on to this. Particularly when she'll have the incumbent advantage, and the improved profile of a Parliamentary secretary.
    09 08 23
    In the last election, Dion did not connect well with the minority community. Rather, many ethnic groups backed Harper's Conservatives which ended up with strong results in ridings with high minority populations. The Conservatives gained a significant percentage ethnic support in the last election (nearly tied to the Liberals), destroying the usual Liberal landslide-dominance on this demographic.
    Richmond (with a majority Asian population) turns out to be a reasonable ‘litmus test’ to determine which party has strong ethnic support. Many, including myself, thought this riding would go Conservative by 1000-2000 votes max. However, Alice Wong won this handily by a huge margin of 8000 votes, which is the largest victory for any candidate since 1993. She has been an active MP in her community, and I believe she will be re-elected in the upcoming election. Plus, many in the Asian community agree with the centre-right principles of the Conservative government, such as tougher crime sentences and tax cuts.
    The question that remains is: Will Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals re-connect with the ethnic community and win ethnic-rich ridings (such as Richmond) back? It is true that Liberal fundraising has improved greatly, but in terms of electorate support, Liberal growth seems to have stalled. Support for Ignatieff has not been significantly greater than that of Dion's. Thus, I believe this riding will stay Conservative (Alice Wong).

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