Prediction Changed
5:02 PM 27/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Chan, Raymond
Chen, Wei Ping
New Democratic
Jackaman, Dale
To, Dobie Yiu-Chung
Wolfe, Michael Anthony
Wong, Alice

Hon. Raymond Chan

2006 Result:
Raymond Chan **
Darrel Robert Reid
Neil Smith
Richard Mathias

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 01 S.O. in B.C
Two things:
Firstly, Ming Pao Vancouver/Toronto released an online poll of its readers (its a Chinese language website) showing that a large plurality of its readers are going to vote Conservative. The Tories are traditionally very weak in the Chinese community so being even with the Grits is a big step up. (Ironically Chinese-Canada relations was the top concern according to respondents - and still the Tories ran away when it came to vote preference)
Secondly, people assume that the Chinese community is left-wing? In general they are not, on issues like criminal justice and most social issues they are right of center. The recent comments by Alicia Wong will not be that big of a surprise or big of a deal since a lot of them feel the same way. Moreover, there is a tendency among the Chinese community to 'defend its own' so to speak. White men releasing an attack on a Chinese candidate of any stripe is not going to go over well as the community closes ranks on one of its own.
08 09 29 Billy
This election will be a bit tight but I'm afraid Alice Wong is just too far out there once again. Taking her direction from God as she stated the last time will not resonate well even in the Chinese community. I've even heard comments from some of her followers saying that shaking hands with her opponent is like shaking hands with the devil.
...Hang on to you hats folks here comes the end of the world
08 09 18 E. L. Smerl
Too close to call. Two candidates with roots in the Chinese community may make this a horse race, as most of the commentators below note. And it was the Harper government that formally apologized for the hated head tax, but a lot fewer people consider this a core issue than would have in prior years. Also, it's not as if Chan was against the apology, quite the opposite. So the apology is as much a Chan win as Harper win.
Given the actual attempt to break the immigration deadlock with the provinces, and very competent Conservative outreach to minority suburban voters, this would appear to be a Conservative pickup. However, with so many racists in the Conservative Party of Canada it's quite easy to remind voters of who would be in charge. Most voters in this riding won't favour a Harper majority but would probably prefer one of their own in the actual government, however one interprets ‘their own’.
So the dynamics of this are too difficult to predict based on polls and it probably depends on events during the election that resonate in the election.
08 09 18 R.O.
Its only week 2 and both harper and dion have visitied this riding which is clearly a sign its one of bc’s more competitive races. One thing that stands out here to me is that Raymond Chan lost this same seat before during 2000 election when the then alliance party was polling high in bc. He then won it back after he won liberal nomination in 04 against Joe Peschisolido who had defected to the liberals. The fact that it fell once before to a less popular party than the conservatives indicates to me its not a safe liberal seat and it has also been heavily targeted by the conservatives recently. Also think the conservative that ran here last election Darrel Reid was a poor fit for the riding and new candidate Alice Wong a much better candidate. Its early but I think this one could go conservative.
08 09 15
Harper's appearance on the first day of the campaign shows that the party is taking this riding seriously, which will probably pay off. Conservative win.
08 09 13
A very interesting race in one of the highest Chinese/Asian populated ridings in Canada.
PM Harper made this municipality the second stop on the campaign tour. Basically, what he's trying to make the point that he believes his party resonates better with ‘Asian/minority values’ than the other parties. I think with the Headtax redress, lowering of taxes, and tougher stance on crime, these values do in ways connect with the minority population. Jason Kenney has done extensive outreach to these communities. The Conservatives also traditional do quite well in suburban ridings. Raymond Chan is not a popular incumbent. Being Chinese, I know that a portion of people in the community are ticked off with his flip-flops. Alice Wong has a very good shot here to pull off an upset. The Conservatives were not far being in 2006.
What could possibility hurt the Conservative chances here somewhat is Harper's no-show at the Beijing 2008 Olympics. I doubt this will be a significant factor, if a factor at all.
08 03 22 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
If the previous commenter had read any history, he will know that the Liberals DID NOT impose the Chinese head tax. That racist tax was imposed by the John A. MacDonald Conservatives back in the 19th century and was lifted during like the 1940s or something by the Liberal Mackenzie King government. If you want to get historically partisan about it, there's my two cents right there. But DON'T GO around saying that Liberals would ever go around imposing taxes on people because of their race.
08 03 02 A.S.
1993 marked a federal political threshold for Richmond (as well as Vancouver South next door): not only did years of PC domination end, it did so on behalf of an Asian Liberal power base, here personified by Raymond Chan. Yet, this being affluent suburban Vancouver of the sort that's never favoured the NDP provincially, it's been a tenuous hold all along, with a 2000 Alliance hiccup along the way--if it weren't for the demos tilting away from the Caucasian, it's really a seat with more in common with the Delta/Surrey/White Rock spread to the south (though less so as it cedes more and more of its Stevestonian edges to its neighbours). And it isn't like the Harperites haven't their own ethnic strategy up their sleeves; last time, CPC nearly one-upped Chan by taking advantage of the head-tax issue, and that was in spite of a totally incongrous ‘white evangelical’ candidate. So, it's all up to general election dynamics henceforth; although as the seat inclines more t/w a ‘central Vancouver’ character, the faster the Tories will have to run to grab it...
08 02 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
You have to be an optimist to think the NDP have any chance of taking this riding. The posting to such isn't worthy of further comment/ridicule. As for the Conservatives taking this riding, we're not convinced either. There's this one nagging little problem facing many who predict significant CPC gains...they are not up in the polls relative to last election. Lastest one we saw had them at 31% nationally (they had 36% last election) with the Liberals at 32% (the same from last election). As well, Harper's stance on issues such as the environment doesn't sit well with many lower mainland voters and they still haven't gained much traction in the three major urban centers of the country. Top this with a fairly steady decline in support for the various conservative incarnation in the GVA suburbs since 2000 and it doesn't look so promising. Now, having said that, it doesn't mean that we're saying it's a sure-fire Liberal keep. There are plenty who are not content with Chan. There is a strong Conservative presence in the riding. The addressing of certain issues (head tax) will help Harper. As well, people are relatively content with Harper at the moment (which is oddly not manifesting itself with higher poll numbers for the CPC). Then of course, we are only in a pseudo-election and much can change until a real one is called. The best approach for predicting this riding is a cautious one.
08 02 04
Optimist, please. The NDP received a mere 6000 votes in 2006, so the NDP winning here is ridiculous. Plus, Chinese voters rarely vote NDP as many lean fiscally and socially right. From my experience, more leftist Chinese voters usually vote Liberal, but rarely NDP.
Interestingly enough, another poster criticized Alice Wong for being too 'evangelical.' Perhaps they didn't realize that Raymond Chan is an evangelical also? I think Alice Wong has an excellent shot here. True, the relationship between Canada and China has aesthetically chilled a little since Harper came to power, but in truth, the relationship between Canada and China is still strong - it has to be due to their mutual trading contracts. Plus, the Conservatives have done a good job reaching out to the Chinese, especially with the Head-tax Redress, so I think prospect looks good for Alice Wong. Many Chinese are simply fed up with Raymond Chan and his sly tactics.
08 01 11 Optimist
Alice Wong is not a strong candidate. Her backers are still the same group of evangelical right wingers that supported Darrel Reid - and who routinely regularly cause mass resignations in the riding executive whenever their choice wins a nomination. The Conservatives might have won with someone like Howard Jampolski, had he won the nomination, but not Alice Wong.
The NDP has been slowly growing strength in this riding at the grass roots civic level where they have always been strong in Richmond. Dissatisfaction with Raymond Chan, and the known evangelical affiliations of Alice Wong, could create the potential for the NDP to come up the middle. The NDP does have at least one high profile potential candidate sitting in the wings who could conceivably split the vote between the other two major parties and pull this one out of the hat.
08 01 07
Far beyond what has been reported in the media, the Harper government has devastated Canadian relations with China where many Richmond residents have business interests. There is no way that this riding will go Tory.
08 01 03
CPC prediction at the moment. Since 2004, this riding has been edging up for a Conservative upset over the Liberals. In 2004, the margin of victory for Raymond Chan was 4000 votes, but in 2006 fell to around 2000 votes even with a more right-wing CPC candidate. Alice Wong is definitely more moderate and her campaign seems organized at the moment - her new website is up, campaign team seems to be putting itself together, and everything seems good to go. Her portfolio will definitely resonate with the tremendous Chinese-Canadian population in the riding. Her party's redress of the head-tax and cutting of the immigration landing fee will also give her a boost.
I could not say the same for Raymond Chan. His campaign seems disorganized, his party is in disarray with Dion at head, and Chan's own flip-flopping record is going to hurt his chances. This rematch of the 2004 race will be interesting to watch (in 2004, it was Chan vs. Wong), but this time I predict Alice Wong will be the victor.
07 10 11
I agree that Harper's human rights stance on a burgeoning China will hurt Conservative chances here. As much as most Chinese are proud Canadians, they are also proud of their home-land, and Harper's burning bridges with China may decrease support.
Still, other than Harper's human rights talk, his government hasn't actually done very much against China. Several of the ministers, including David Emerson, traveled to China to (I believe) meet with officials about trade. Also, Harper's apology for the Liberal-imposed Chinese Head Tax gained him substantial support from the Chinese community.
Furthermore, CPC candidate Alice Wong has pledged to improve relations between Canada and China. I usually try to be as neutral as possible, but Raymond Chan definitely has been an embarrassment to the Chinese community for flip-flopping on so many issues, including the Chinese Head Tax.
07 10 06 Canbuhay
This is only an early prediction, and Chan has had many aces up his sleeve before, but this election could finally end in his defeat (again).
Alice Wong won the nomination for this riding for the Tories (again) and as businesswoman of Chinese descent, she perfectly fits the profile of this riding (when I lived in Surrey, I spent a lot of time there visiting friends and looking for good Asian restaurants there).
07 04 17 Steve L.
one of the uncertainties about the last campaign was that no one was certain how committed Harper was to getting the Chinese head tax apologies done. after all, it was a political promise.
now that he has, Raymond Chan must be embarrassed to no end. i can't see the Conservatives going anywhere but up in Richmond. hell, they might even go up in Vancouver-Kingsway or Vancouver South. but i digress.
that, and Harper having spoken out against China on human rights. there's considerable variation amongst Chinese people across the world on the situation of human rights in China, but among Chinese immigrants Harper's statements will more likely than not resonate well.
Harper's outreach towards the Chinese isn't always headline-worthy, but it's there for all to see. and there's a good chance Chinese voters will respond in kind.
07 04 07
The Asian population is warming to the Conservatives. They have shown in power they are not ‘hard right-wing’ (in fact many of their policies align with centrism and classic liberalism) but they still hold the same family based values that resonate with the culture of many Asian-immigrants. I also know that there is a huge faction of Chinese voters disgruntled with Raymond Chan. Kerri-Lynn Findlay is not running for nomination in this riding. The two top three contenders are: Patrick Wong (former BC Liberal cabinet minister), Alice Wong (2004 CPC candidate in this riding), and Howard Jampolsky (lost to Darrell Reid for nomination in 2006). If Patrick Wong wins, he may not win this for the CPC due to some membership controversy/scandal. I think if Alice Wong wins nomination again, she has a good shot at this one as long as they run a stronger campaign than they did in 2004. Raymond Chan will be difficult though, because there are some Liberal-loyal Chinese voters who will back him through thick and thin, and he has a ‘monopoly’ on the mainland Chinese vote.
If the Conservatives reach majority territory, I'd call this one for them.
If the Conservatives reach minority again, depending on how strong a minority, it could go either way.
If the Liberals win a minority/majority, it will go Liberal.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
Historically this has been a centre-right riding and if the Tories make a breakthrough amongst Chinese voters they could win this. Still I think the Liberals should hold this one as it is rather urban and a little too close to the city proper for the Tories. Ironically this was one of the best Progressive Conservative ridings in the 80s in BC and is one of the strongest areas in the province for the centre-right BC Liberals, but most who voted PC in the 80s and BC Liberals provincially are the moderate centre-right types, not hard right types, so many of them will go Liberal federally.
07 04 06 Brian Appel
The fact that this riding has the largest Asian population in Canada means that the NDP will never win here, so it's a toss-up between Chan and the Conservative candidate (who will likely be Kerry-Lynn Findlay). I'm going to give Chan the advantage as the incumbent and the fact that he's Chinese running in a heavily Chinese riding. Liberal hold.

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