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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
1:40 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:40 PM 6/26/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Raymond Chan
Dale Jackaman
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Stephen Kronstein
Canadian Action canadienne:
Allan Warnke
Alice Wong

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Delta-South Richmond (14.2%)
John Cummins
Richmond (85.8%)
Joe Peschisolido

2000 Result/Résultats:
16,721 44.62%
15,524 41.43%
2,239 5.98%
2,125 5.67%
862 2.30%

Delta-South Richmond
(27/235 polls, 8654/82670 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(140/206 polls, 52293/77097 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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22/06/04 Eric S.
Email: [hidden]
This is not a Liberal hold as it used to be. If you look at the mood of the voters, there is a strong apathy for the Liberal Pary. Even if Raymond Chan has the sympathies of the Chinese Community, the party does not. This is a very social conservative riding, and the Liberals facing discontent over same-sex marriage. And the Chinese votes, the deciding voters in this election are moving over to the conservatives. As reported in CBC : http://www.cbc.ca/story/election/national/2004/06/17/immigrant_fed040617.html
This riding will elect Alice Wond.
15/06/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
To the poster who said "Well, let's see the facts:"
"Richmond is a riding composed, mostly, of wealthy asians and middle-class business-people."
Asians will often vote for one of thier own. Since both contenders are of this ethnicity this is a moot point. However, the fact that they are business people means that they will swing more to the CPS than the Liberals.
"The Liberals had the incumbent MP"
1) He was a turncoat who was elected as an Alliance member. So really the CPC won this seat last time and should be considered the incumbent
2) The "incumbent" is not even running.
3) the "incumbent" beat the liberal canadiate when HE was the incumbent
Any incumbency advantage goes the CPC
"The Conservative popularity in BC, especially in the Greater Vancouver, area is dropping like a lead balloon."
Uh. not so much. This is at best, out-of-date, at worst, factualy wrong.
12/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I always felt Raymond Chan was a weak MP in his days in office. If this was six months ago when Team Martin was on the verge of sweeping the nation I would say that he would be returned to office. But with Liberal fortunes sagging I have to give the nod to Alice Wong on this one.
01/06/04 neutral voter
Email: [hidden]
This riding will go Conservative. The Liberal party will finish second by a reasonable margin. Raymond Chan lost to the Reform candidate last time and supposedly the ethnic vote didn't help. This time there are two Chinese candidates so it will not be a factor. The Conservatives will repeat and gain back the election win. Luckily Joe Peschclido is not running again because nobody likes a turncoat. Raymond Chan has shown to be a minor player in the federal scene and his legal troubles don't help in the Chinese community. Expect Richmond to go safely to the CPC.
25/05/04 Brother C.
Email: [hidden]
I think the election will boil down to two candidate: Raymond Chan, and Alice Wong.
NDP: Sorry, Chinese, while you might not like it, don't generally vote NDP
So it is between the two chinese candidate of Conservative and Liberal.
While some would think Raymond has a better chance, well think again.
As most of you remember, Raymond did lose to a non-Chinese in a Chinese dominated riding. HA!!! Well muchly deserve, and guess what, people still don't like him just as much as before. It was a very dumb policy for the riding executives to rule out Joe just out of the bat? Stupid!
As for Alice Wong, while her name is not exactly a beacon of light, well it is the lesser of the two evils. You shall see ladies and gentlemen, it will be Alice Wong that comes out, because she is not as well hated as Raymond, and guess what, she is Chinese.
25/05/04 Keith R
Email: [hidden]
As much as I have liked Chan from a distance, I think there is too much baggage here for him to pull off a win. Compared to Chan, Alice Wong will have equal appeal to the Asian community. Chan lost last time to a non-Asian person. But I think the turning point is that Chan, a member of the Christian community as well, lost the support of that segment by being too wishy washy on social and family issues. Alice Wong is also a member of the Christian community and will not be in as stifling a party as Chan, so I think she is going to take this one by about 1000 votes. I should also add that this is not quite same riding Chan ran in last time. The redistro has put a good chunk of South Delta (John Cummins area) which last time had less Liberal supprot by % than the previous Richmond riding. This makes up about 15% of the new riding. Not good news for Liberals.
23/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I agree that this has become a thoroughly marginal riding for everyone...The latest COMPAS poll suggests that the Conservatives have opened up a significant lead in BC...40-32.27...This should give the Conservatives Richmond assuming that their candidate can garner a decent percentage of the Chinese vote (say 25%). An important issue raised by the previous poster is whether Raymond Chan actually has Joe Peschosolido's enthusiastic endorsement.
23/05/04 Brian
Email: brianappel@canada.com
Well, let's see the facts:
Richmond is a riding composed, mostly, of wealthy asians and middle-class business-people.
The Liberals had the incumbent MP
The Conservative popularity in BC, especially in the Greater Vancouver, area is dropping like a lead balloon.
The NDP have about as much chance of winning Calgary Southwest as they do of ever winning Richmond.
Prediction: Chan takes the seat with 45% or more of the vote.
08/05/04 Stevo
Liberal pick-up. All the national polls show that British Columbia seems to be the one province where Conservative support is actually falling. A three-way tie in the province has been set up, with all three national parties registering support in the 30-35% range. In the last election, the Canadian Alliance narrowly won this seat with support BC overall running at over 40%, and I can't see the CPC winning this time around with only 32% in the province. Raymond Chan, with Joe Peschosolido's help, will once again paint this riding red.
05/05/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Raymond Chan popular in Richmond???????? Last time I checked, he lost in 2000 in a reasonably Liberal favourable riding because he was such a weak MP.
If Martin had any understanding of BC politics, he would have convinced either Greg Halsey-Brandt or Geoff Plant to leave the provincial scene and run federally. Geoff Plant in Ottawa would finally give the fed Liberals a strong BC MP to lead the BC team.
But Martin does not understand BC. Raymond Chan is not destined to make comeback, the CPC will win here again.
13/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
One thing to keep in mind about the 2000 election, which Chan narrowly lost, is that a lot of traditional NDP supporters went over to the Liberals. This happened all across Canada, including in Richmond, where the NDP's totals went down from 1997 and the Liberals' totals went up by about the same amount. But Chan still lost by 1000 votes, as more PC voters drifted toward the Alliance. To predict that Chan will win again, you have to assume that he'll capture at least 1500 of the 2500 votes that went to the PC candidate in '00, that he won't lose more than a few votes to the NDP, that the inclusion of part of Tory John Cummins' old riding in this one won't be a factor, and that people want to vote for the government candidate whom they turfed out in the next election. A couple of these assumptions may prove to be true, but probably not all of them. If the Tories can find even a half-decent candidate, they should be able to win by a slightly larger margin than last time.
05/04/04 Mike M.
Raymond Chan, a popular candidate, barely lost in 2000 to Joe Peschisolido, who later crossed the floor and joined the Liberals. Most of the Alliance vote in this riding was protest vote. Raymond Chan has a head start on the Conservative Candidate. Faced with a choice between Stephen Harper and Paul Martin, and given the demographics of this riding, I can't see a Conservative victory in this riding. The riding isn't particularily conservative in ideology, not is it socialist. Liberal win in Richmond.
01/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Raymond Chan is popular here. Despite losing the election in 2000, he will win here. The Alliance barly won last time, and with the CPC lower in the polls then the Alliance was alone, it seems that the Liberals will pick up enough votes here to be able to win.
01/04/04 Phill St Louis
Email: phill@hivnet.ubc.ca
I think the Conservatives will take this seat again.
Chan lost in the last election to the CRA candidate. In the Liberal nomination campaign, there were dirty trick allegations against Chan and he stated a slur again Indo Canadians that, to be fair, was taken-out-of-context. Richmond voters may be tired of him and Chan will lose some of the NDP vote that he has taken. The NDP voters, such as myself, in this riding usually vote for Chan in an attempt to keep the Conservatives out. The Conservatives could run a family pet in this riding and win.
28/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
The suburban riding of Richmond has historically voted for the centre / centre right candidates both provincially and federally. Between the 1979 and 1988 elections the PC candidate garnered 10,000 - 20,000 vote majorities. The current Liberal candidate, Raymond Chan, was elected during the 1993 and 1997 elections with a split in the Reform/CA/PC vote.
During the 2000 election the CA won this riding with only around a 1,000 vote margin when the CA obtained a high 49% of the provincial vote, which they will likely not obtain this time around. Some of the former red tory vote will also likely switch to the Liberals which will likely result in a Liberal marginal win over the CPC.
19/03/04 M.W.
Email: mijawara@yahoo.com
Since '93, the Liberals have produced the sorriest string of ministers in Vancouver's federal political history. Now that Dhaliwal is retiring and Hedy may lose her own nomination, British Columbians will be delighted to find Raymond Chan returning from the political wilderness to haunt us. Despite distinguishing himself as a truly awful appointed hack (while serving as one of Vancouver/Whistler's Olympic ambassadors), Chan managed to win the Liberal nomination in Richmond, and will win his old seat back, too. Conservatives have a strong potential candidate in Dr. Alice Wong, but name recognition plus higher Liberal numbers in BC should let Chan coast on this one. Unless David Emerson runs this year, Chan probably has a lock on a Cabinet posting, as well.
17/03/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
Former cabinet minister Raymond Chan managed to beat Alliance turncoat Joe Peschisolido for the Grit nomination here, but before Chan in '93, this seat was pretty solidly conservative, and as I mentioned, he himself was beaten by the Alliance in 2000. Judging by the history, I'm going out on a limb and saying Tory win.

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