Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-27 11:20:00

Constituency Profile


Biley, Barbara

Jespersen, Myron

Lunney, James

Maartman, Zenaida

Miller, Renée Amber

Schroeder, Jesse

Wagner, Frank

James Lunney

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • nanaimo-alberni (209/209 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 30 J89
    With recent polls placing the NDP support in BC up significantly (most notable the Angus Reid poll placing support up to 37%), seats like this one become in the play for the NDP. It will be considerably closer than the last election and potentially an upset.
    11 04 28 keefr
    This riding, though taking in some bedrock right-leaning areas such as North Nanaimo and Parksville, also encompasses a vast swath of NDP leaning areas, provincially.
    I may be going out on a limb here, but I think the NDP youth surge combined with even some of the Liberal and Conservative (disenchanted HST) voters could give this narrowly to the New Democrats.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    This will stay Tory largely due to the changing demographics. The north side of Nanaimo is fairly affluent unlike the working class nature of the south side which is in Nanaimo-Cowichan. Also resource towns like Port Alberni are losing people whereas the growth is mostly in places like Parksville and Qualicum Beach where you have many retired seniors and many are from Alberta. This group has a very high voter turnout and usually goes Conservative thus even though the Tories could lose their other two Vancouver Island ridings, they won't lose this one.
    11 04 08 C.A.B.
    The safest Tory seat on Vancouver Island, for two reasons. This riding had their best share (47%) and margin (15 points) last time, and all three of the other parties have bigger fish to fry elsewhere: the Greens, of course, are throwing everything they have at getting Elizabeth May elected in Saanich-Gulf Islands; the NDP would no doubt love to take Vancouver Island North back; and the Liberals... well, they are theoretically defending Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. Even if they weren't, they lost their deposit here last time. Lunney is going back to Ottawa, even if it's as the only Tory on the Island.
    11 04 04 Rod
    The Liberals have a candidate, but she is young and very inexperienced. Her first newsworthy quote was to the effect that she believed that it was time to get rid of the ‘aged’ in Parliament, and by association, ‘aged’ voters. In a riding heavily populated with retirees, that should cut nicely into her chances. The NDP will hold their traditional vote, leaving it an election for Lunney to lose.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    Historically an NDP riding, but today it is more centre-right than centre-left due to population changes. While the heavily unionized towns like Port Alberni have lost people, much of the growth has been in the Parksville-Qualicum Beach corridor, mostly amongst retirees and many are from Alberta. The Tories do well amongst this group thus why they have an advantage. I would be surprised if they got over 50%, but the trend is not very good for the NDP, so unless the provincial numbers change radically in the next couple weeks, I will call this for the Tories.
    11 03 28 Osborne
    The call for Lunney to win is probably accurate, but previous results have been in light of not having a decent Liberal Candidate in the mix. If the Liberals can present a strong Liberal candidate, the patterns could change, most likely to the benefit of the NDP.
    Having run as a candidate in the provincial election (green), I must admit that Zeni impressed me with her professionalism. There were times I'm sure she wanted to knock my head off, but never once upstaged her provincial counterpart. The support she gave her provincial counterpart was impressive and illustrated an individual that is involved in politics for more than personal interests. While I'm not usually an NDP supporter, and definately not a fan of Layton, I suspect Zeni would do an excellent job of representing our region in Ottawa. I wouln't be suprised if my vote landed here on election day. Unfortunately for Zeni, the anti-NDP vote is pretty strong here (about 60%) and I don't see her being a strong enough candidate to change this.
    Lunney is a very personable person with a great gift for the gab, I can see why he has been popular with the voters. However, despite his best attempts, his ability to distance himself from Harper's politics, which are not popular here, may be wearing thin. Due to his ‘whipped vote’, his track record in Ottawa doesn't exactly jive with his Reformer rooted local sales pitch. Nothing terribly damaging, but I get the feeling that a question lingers over just how effective our representation has been. Has it grown stale?
    While I may be a green at heart, I found the Federal Green candidate, and constituency backing him, lacks the professionalism and political savy to be taken as a serious candidate choice. I don't expect to see much more than typical green preaching from the soap box, which isn't enough to get most votes, including my own. I hope I'm wrong, and we get to see some real MP potential, but I'm not holding my breath.
    As I suggested earlier, a strong Liberal candidate could shake things up, creating a three-way race. We have one of the highest affluent and educated retirement populations in Canada and this is a group that I could see Ignatieff having some influence over if the voters take the time to get to know him. A long shot for sure, but a strong Liberal Candidate, a stale Lunney, and getting to know the real Ignatieff could conspire for an NDP win.
    Mind you, if the Canucks remain strong Stanley Cup contenders, dominating talk at the water cooler, how many are going to bother educating themselves about their political options? Lunney benefits the most from a strong Canuck run.
    11 03 27 WAC
    It would appear as though the NDP have maxed out around 19-20K votes // 31-32% of the vote. They've fallen in that range in 2004, 2006 and 2008. Whereas, the Conservatives floor seems to be about 40% which they got in 2004 and 2006. Of note when the Liberal vote collapsed in 2008 it seems as though the Greens and the Conservatives were the beneficiaries and not the NDP. It seems as even though the NDP have some strength here, they simply do not have sufficient support here to win.
    10 09 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Probably a CPC hold based upon Lunney's personal popularity but with the recent poll numbers for the CPC in BC, wouldn't bet the farm on it. Hold your breath and see if the NDP can keep their lead in BC. If so this should be cast as TCTC.
    09 08 26 JJ
    Potentially a close two-way race between the Conservatives and NDP, but CPC James Lunney manages to win with healthy margins. This is probably the safest Conservative seat on Vancouver Island. CPC hold.

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