Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:57 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:46 AM 5/15/2004

Constituency Profile
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Barbara Biley
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Hira Chopra
Scott Fraser
Canadian Action canadienne:
Diana Lifton
James Lunney
Parti Marijuana Party:
Michael Mann
Green Party/Parti Vert:
David Wright

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Nanaimo-Alberni (100.0%)
James Lunney

2000 Result/Résultats:
26,044 50.28%
10,740 20.74%
7,544 14.57%
5,297 10.23%
2,168 4.19%

(209/209 polls, 81028/81028 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Not Non-Patisan
Email: [hidden]
Lunney is a good member. Why people think that voters are going to leave him in droves (like 10,000) is beyond me! Crowder has an OK campaign but its just not enough to close an 18,000 vote gap. The Libs are in disarray and look for them to sit on their hands on election day -- given BC animousities, they are not voting NDP here! Lunney is going to win.
15/06/04 full name
Email: [hidden]
i have to go with the ndp's scott fraser to take this one. while i live in vancouver, i have alot of family living in this riding still. there are fraser signs everywhere and i know many people who have voted reform the last few elections are now taking thier votes back to the ndp. the tories definately can't rely on the past reform votes in this riding as the riding has never voted for a pc in this area in my life. the riding has a ndp/ccf history and the populist vote will be going back to the ndp. there may be alot of tory signs, but remember trees and boulevards don't have the right to vote!
13/06/04 Mark Robinson
Email: kojangee@hotmail.com
Most readers from the riding in question know who I am.
This is one of those ridings that electionprediction.org will get wrong, unless they change their prediction in the next week or so.
Last election, the NDP got 14% of the vote. The current Conservative candidate is not only the incumbent, but an incumbent who actually did his work while in office. Additionally, the riding association is neither broke nor lacking volunteers.
I lived in the riding for over 20 years (I'm in China now believe it or not), I have personaly been at the doorsteps of thousands of homes in this riding. I know the peoples' opinions and what makes their minds tick.
Most of my friends and family live in the riding. Apart from my ex-wife (who is a government worker anyway), and one other friend (who is a die-hard socialist) they are all telling me that they are voting for Lunney.
Look at the recent polling nationally. The Conservatives are leading, and the voters in this riding would much rather have someone in the government caucus because it would give them better representation. This is the main arguement my family has made for voting for Lunney (even my brother who is a union worker). He tells me that the boys in the shop he works at are all voting conservative.
Although it is unlike me, I did my research prior to spouting my mouth off on this issue. And yes, I do have a great deal of spare time on my hands of late.
People in this riding will not vote NDP by any stretch of the imagination. Many union workers who work in the forestry industry will not vote for Mr. Fraser because many feel he threatens their jobs with his environmental views.
Further to that, there is no vote splitting this time. Those former Progressive-Conservative voters who don't feel comfortable holding their noses and voting for Lunney will certainly not vote NDP.
This riding is an increasingly aging riding, and there is a lot of money to boot. North Nanaimo will most certainly go Conservative, as will most of Parksville and Qualicum. That leaves Port Alberni and the west coast.
The west coast will have it's fair share of green supporters, and Port Alberni will have it's share of Liberal and NDP votes.
I say Liberal votes because the Liberal candidate is from that area and well-known.
In addition, North Nanaimo has it's fair share of Liberal supporters, but not enough to upset the incumbent.
Why this riding is not predicted to go conservative is beyond me. I wouldm't even put it in the "too close" catagory.
I can possibly POSSIBLY see Nanaimo - Cowichan going NDP, but the day Nanaimo-Alberni goes orange is the day I re-enter politics full-throttle.
02/06/04 Vortigern
Email: [hidden]
"there will be little bleeding from the Conservatives to the extreme left"
You're wrong. Quite apart from your personal opinion that the NDP are extremists (and admittedly I feel that to be true of the Conservatives, on the other side of the spectrum), the fact is that a good portion of that Reform/Alliance vote was a protest vote, one which previously went to the NDP, and could easily do so again. Now, the Conservatives might win here - and I'll say I'm not as familiar with this riding as with those in Vancouver - but it will be close, and at the end of the day, I feel that an electorate that is showing such disdain for the neo-conservative government in Victoria will go NDP.
02/06/04 full name
Email: [hidden]
With 60% of the vote going to the conservative parties in the last election compared to 14% going to the NDP the Conservative party it is hard to believe that there could be such a large shift in opinion from one opposition party to another. This combined with a strong Green party polling numbers in BC taking most of thier support at the expense of the NDP this one will easily stay in the blue column.
01/06/04 S.T.
Email: [hidden]
There seems to be a little bit of lefty-delusion going on here. Perhaps the NDP will make gains at the Liberal expense, but there will be little bleeding from the Conservatives to the extreme left. It just won't happen!
This is a conservative riding that won by a HUGE margin in 2000 - and it won't change this election. No chance.
By the way, I went to Parksville recently to see Harper - and there was over 1000 people there to see him. They projected less than half that!
25/05/04 Alex
Email: [hidden]
The combined Tory vote was over 60%, and people are predicting NDP, which got less than a quarter of that? Pardon me, but unless the NDP candidate is some sort of deity, it's a blue seat.
25/05/04 Buffalo
An NDP prediction already? Quite an audacious statement considering they only garnered 14% of the vote last election. North Nanaimo, Parksville, and Qualicum are not what one would consider "NDP country". In fact, it is a wealthy, aging population base - the reverse of the typical NDP voter profile. As for Port Alberni, the logger voter will be unimpressed by NDP candidate Scott Fraser, a green-tilter from Tofino. With Haggard on the Liberal ticket, it will add more confusion to NDP ranks. Will the NDP vote increase? Probably. But not exponentially. This race bears further examination.
19/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
With the strong NDP support in BC and it being focused largely in part on Vancouver Island, they will probably pick up as many as 4 ridings with the two Nanaimo ones being very likely wins. Not a shoe-in like neighbouring Nanimo-Cowichan but they got a very good shot here.
19/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@hotmail.com
Another predominantly blue collar, traditionally NDP riding on the Island, that took a swing towards right-populism in the '90's...
Unlike Nanaimo-Cowichan, the CPC *does* have a non-"Reagan Democrat" base here (Parksville, Qualicum Beach et al) and the part of Nanaimo in this riding isn't as much of an NDP stronghold as the bit in Nanaimo-Cowichan... but this is likely to be more than made up for by the Alberni Valley (including Port Alberni) a working class area still dominated by the timber industry.
The NDP's Lazerus impersonation on the Island, coupled with their wooing of the timber industry (and the end of Svend Robinson's political career. Cynical? Yes, but then again this *is* politics...) means that only a *very* strong turnout in the Parksville-Qualicum area (or the NDP imploding again) will be able to save Lunney now.
05/04/04 Mike D
Email: [hidden]
Oops, Haggard appears to have backed off running for the Liberals. He was a significant obstacle to an NDP victory. If the NDP can maintain a support level of 25% or more in BC - I believe they will - Fraser is on his way to Ottawa.
01/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The NDP and the Liberals are going to be fighting eachother here. I think the Conservatives will be able to come up the middle. This is a traditional Conservative riding, with some history of voting NDP. The Conservatives should have no problem winning here.
31/03/04 M.W.
Email: mijawara@yahoo.com
Every indication is now that Martin will appoint IWA boss Dave Haggard to represent the Liberals here. On the surface, that's a blow to the NDP's hopes of two pickups in Nanaimo (Nanaimo-Cowichan is one of the safest bets for a New Dem gain in BC), and you can be sure the Liberals are hoping Haggard will eat into the union vote. But Haggard is not an uncontroversial figure, with many of his own members feeling he sold them out to the BC Liberals during a recent dispute, and other unions raging at the IWA's poaching habits. Calling this one for Scott Fraser.
26/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
Unlike the southern portion of Nanaimo, which is somewhat centre-left, and currently part of the Nanaimo-Cowichan riding, the northern portion of Nanaimo has seen considerable development over the past 10 to 15 years and is somewhat more centrist.
Parksville and Qualicum Beach, which have grown with retirees, are somewhat centre/centre-right.
The big question in this riding is Port Alberni, a pulp mill town, which has shown centre-left tendencies historically.
On election day, if the NDP is able to capture in the neighbourhood of excess of 25% of the provincial federal vote, this riding could be within reach.
20/03/04 ISH
Email: [hidden]
The NDP is surging on Vancouver Island, and while I think that David Anderson may hang on Victoria and the outcome in Esquimalt is definitely too difficult to call right now, it is entirely likely that the other four ridings on the Island are going to go NDP this time out. The 2000 numbers are not really a guide here. The NDP was a historic low that year, and many of the voters that went Reform and Alliance because they thought of them as anti-establishment, are not going to jump on the new tory bandwagon. These f*-you, Ottawa voters, who swung from the NDP to Reform in '93 are likely to move back.
20/03/04 CM
Email: [hidden]
It'll be either a Conservative hold or an NDP pick up here, with a slight edge to the NDP, though I've heard rumours that Industrial, Wood and Allied Workers Union president Dave Haggard was being courted to run for the Liberals.
16/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
NDP to take this seat. This is not a real ‘conservative’ area and as such, will return to its traditional voting trends and elect an NDP MP by a comfortable margin. This area is where the strong NDP support is concentrated. Look for an unemployed conservative MP.

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