Prediction Changed
5:02 PM 27/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Biley, Barbara
Fryer, John
Lunney, James
New Democratic
Maartman, Zeni
Pesik, Richard
Christian Heritage
Wagner, Frank

James Lunney

2006 Result:
James Lunney **
Manjeet Uppal
Jim Stewart
David Wright
R. L. Dusty Miller
Frank Wagner
Jen Fisher-Bradley
Barbara Biley

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 21 LAW
The battle in Nanaimo-Alberni is for second place and that may well fall to the Greens. The NDP and Liberal candidates are newcomers and will be hard pressed to attract more than their party's core supporters. The Green candidate has run before (for the NDP) and should be the beneficiary of votes bleeding from the other left-wing parties. Only a major faux pas in the national campaign will cause the Conservatives to lose this one. The Conservative incumbent has won each of the past three elections by a comfortable margin and there is little evidence to suggest that it will be any different this time.
08 09 12 The Dude Abides
The demographic that supported more left-leaning parties in the past has been slowly changing and disappearing in this riding. It's not your father's Nanaimo-Alberni any more. Should remain in the Tory column barring any significant hiccups in the incumbent's campaign.
08 04 22 R.O.
Still leaning towards a hold for conservative mp James Lunney here. For a couple of reasons most obvious since he has been mp for a while and held the riding even when nearby ones fell to other parties. Now with the conservatives doing better in BC its likely this riding stays where it is. Also the ndp are running a new candidate Zeni Maartman but have noticed ndp candidates seem to have to run a few times before they actually get elected in ridings like this one. They seem to have to build up local name recognition before they can actually win.
08 02 23 BJ
North Nanaimo, Lantzville, Nanoose Bay, Parksville, to Qualicum Beach, along the east coast, represents a large contiguous population base within the riding and its demographics are centre-right both provincially and federally.
It also has a growing population base with many Albertans choosing the area for retirement. The mill town of Port Alberni and older rural areas as well as the west coast have strong NDP roots, but the riding has been trending small ‘c’ conservative over the past 20 years.
That is also reflected in the fact that the Conservatives went from 39.1% in 2004 to 41.4% in 2006. Add in the incumbency factor and this seat represents the CP with their best bet on Vancouver Island.
08 02 17 A.S.
The NDP swept Vancouver Island in 1988, and something of that afterglow's lingered ever since--or at least it efficiently resumed come the Jack Layton years. In this particular case, though, the paired names ‘Nanaimo’ and ‘Alberni’ promise more than they deliver; too much coastal retirement zone = the highest Tory share on the island. Though not for want of trying on the NDP's part; and, hate to say it, but one wonders if they might have done better last time had the candidate (however exemplary) not been named ‘Manjeet Uppal’--so, don't count them completely out now. That is, if Green (which underperformed last time, here and elsewhere on the island) doesn't steal from them instead...
08 01 10 R.O.
Not a lot of predictions here yet but going to say conservative hold for James Lunney mp but ndp is still competitive here and well ahead of the other candidates. Guess what makes this riding close is its on Vancouver Island and that area was or is more ndp historically.
But ndp haven’t moved up enough in polls to take ridings like these, and ridings ndp gained in bc have largely been due to retirement of mp’s such as Victoria, Nanaimo cowichan and surrey north. They’ve had a tougher time in ridings held by long-time mp’s.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
Traditionally an NDP riding, now mainly a Conservative one. This riding is divided between the West side of the riding, which is still heavily NDP due to the large union base there while the Eastern half which is Conservative due to the large retirement community and the fact it is more affluent than most Vancouver Island ridings. With most of the growth occurring on the East side, this will likely stay Tory and only if the Liberal vote completely collapses into the NDP, do they have a shot here.

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