Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Calgary-Nose Hill

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:19:00

Constituency Profile


Ablonczy, Diane

Anderson, Collin

Hajj, Tony

McLeod, Margaret

Hon. Diane Ablonczy

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • calgary-northeast (3/212 Polls)
  • calgary-nose-hill (127/229 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 16 s. gainsbourg
    This is a suburban riding, with a decent sized visible minority population (mostly Chinese), although still peanuts when compared to the suburban areas of other major cities (e.g. Vancouver/Toronto). Ablonczy has for the most part avoided causing any major controversies since becoming MP of this riding 18 years ago, shrewdly keeping her Evangelical Christian views to herself (yes, Harper is also of the same faith).
    Ablonczy has never won less than a majority of the votes cast in her riding, a record stretching back six elections. No reason at all why this won't be the case again in 2011.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Diane Ablonczy may have been slighted when it comes to getting cabinet posts, but based on her past margins, she should easily win by a landslide.
    09 09 06 A.S.
    As offered elsewhere in EPP, contrary to legend, Alberta Conservative voters aren't so ‘racist’ as to automatically snub a Tory of colour. By that same quotient, let me offer that they aren't so ‘homophobic’ (or Torontophobic, for that matter) as to snub Diane Ablonczy for offering tourism-ministry money to Toronto's Pride celebrations...
    09 09 03 Stevo
    One of the top Cabinet talents, repeatedly (and infuriatingly, to those of us who admire her) overlooked by PM Harper. Diane Ablonczy should have the Justice, Industry, or Public Works portfolio, not the junior minister role she currently occupies. She will win yet another landslide.
    09 08 29 JJ
    As a long-time MP, Diane Ablonczy has a lot of talent -- this was even implied by a Liberal supporter. Too bad Calgary is crowded with a lot of key Conservative MP's, because Ablonczy should probably receive a huge plum Cabinet position, not the ‘Small Business and Tourism’ portfolio she possesses now.
    The electorate of Nose-Hill recognizes her talent. She will be elected by landslide proportions. Conservative hold.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. There is no perfect storm in sight to move any Calgary riding away from the “solidly Conservative column any time soon.

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