2:21 PM 31/12/2005

Prediction Changed
12:51 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Calgary-Nose Hill
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Diane Ablonczy
Juliet Burgess
Ted Haney
Bruce Kaufman

Diane Ablonczy

2004 Result:
Diane Ablonczy
Ted Haney
Vinay Dey
Richard Larson

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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30 12 05 jh
I find it amusing that the pro-liberal comment pins their hopes on the chinese-canadian population in nose hill.
Not only are visible minorities key to the Diane Ablonczy's conservative organization, Diane Ablonczy is as popular with Chinese Canadians as she is with all other members of the cultural mosaic in Calgary.
29 12 05 Desi
As a resident in this riding, I know that the ethnic vote(Chinese and East Indian) will be significant. A lot of the immigrants here are upper-middle class and support Conservative principles economically and socially. Plus, Diane has huge name recognition. Conservatives by a landslide.
03 12 05 Jon
Adding to J L's comment, if anything, the growing Chinese population will help Ablonczy rather than go against her. Chinese tradition is quite Conservative- I'm not stereotyping, but generally if you look at all the facts many Chinese are Conservative.
18 11 05 J L
Diane should steamroll through here...this is where I live, and since it is a heavily suburban constituency (provincially Calgary Foothills was won by Len Webber by 51% compared to the Libs' Stephen Jenuth who won 31%) that isn't likely to have any growth of Lib support esp. in the face of Gomery. Although, however, there IS a growing Chinese population in this riding, which could tip the balance slightly, but just not enough.
16 07 05 hatman
Diane Ablocnzy - a very well known MP will have no problems winning this seat again. The Liberals weren't even close to winning this in 1993 (almost 20,000 votes behind). The Reform Party finished second in 1988!! The Liberals last won here in 1940! This will go Conservative again- no doubt about it.
10 05 05 Nick Boragina
I think it's too early to be cabinet making for the tories, but one thing is true, this is a blue riding. Ablonczy is very locally popular, even ran against Harper for the Alliance leadership. She was seen as the merger candidate, and now that the merger has happened, she's liked by both wings of the party, and is still a future leadership possiblity.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
Being on the edge of the city, even Ralph Klein won in this area with large margins in the most recent provincial election. With the Conservatives polling even higher, this should be an easy win. Diane Ablonczy has been a compotent Immigration critic and will likely be the next Immigration Minister should the Conservatives form the next government

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