Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Calgary Northeast

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:19:00

Constituency Profile


Blanchard, Daniel

Brown-Eckersley, Sheila

Shory, Devinder

Singh, Colette

Stewart, Cam

Devinder Shory

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • calgary-northeast (148/212 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    This riding is 48% visible minority which in any other province would mean the Liberals would be at least competitive if not have a lock on the riding. But this is Calgary and Alberta so demographics don't matter too much as pretty much every demographic votes Conservative, some just more massively than others.
    10 05 22 A.S.
    Re Devinder Shory's Liberal opponent: in the year of Stephane Dion, how many Alberta Liberal results out there *weren't* the worst since 1988? Indeed, the Grits have been *over*achieving (relatively speaking) in this seat over the past couple of elections--20% is astronomical by 2008 standards, higher than anyplace in Alta other than Landslide Annie's old Edmonton Centre fortress and the token Rob Anders-backlash situation in Calgary West--and now that Shory's got a nasty ethical cloud looming over him, don't be surprised if the Liberals feel like they're looking a gift horse in the mouth. Trouble is, this is Alberta; and there's a fair bet that CPC'll make a new-candidate quick-fix if Shory's too hot to handle, and presto, Albertan rubber stamp all over again. And if that doesn't do it; it could just as well be a Roger Richard-type independent marching up t/w Jim Ford Sherwood Park-ian levels of support...
    09 10 16 binriso
    Well the opposition parties did worse here because of an independent run by a former PC candidate that won something like 12-13% of the vote. I would expect a higher showing by a couple of points for the Liberals and NDP and Greens but the CPC should win with around 55% of the vote or more.
    09 10 03 Kenton
    Also of note... in the 2008 election, against rookie Conservative candidate Devinder Shory, the Liberals fell to their worst showing in Calgary Northeast since 1988 - even while the 2008 Liberal candidate here spent more than any other candidate in any other Calgary riding.
    09 09 10 Nick J Boragina
    This riding is pretty darn solidly Tory. And I say Tory and not ?Conservative Party of Canada? with intent - even during the Reform Alliance era, the PC Party maintained a good quarter of the vote within Calgary. With that kind of history, its hard to make a breakthrough.
    I do want to note, however, that the Liberals have been ever (slowly) increasing in the city. This riding, along with both of those in the centre of the city, are places where they've managed to make a showing. While I do not see the Liberals winning this riding, even if they take a majority government, I would not be surprised if everyone else is on election night due to the newfound grittyness of Calgary.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. There is no perfect storm in sight to move any Calgary riding away from the “solidly Conservative column any time soon.

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